Biggest Fantasy Storylines for 2018 - LIVE in Philly

One and 31. Use the math. One. I'm done. Here's the opening schedule for the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers. The Saints. Sam Darnold up there and the jets are going to take them on. The Raiders, the Ravens, the Chargers. Sounds like Tyrod's going to be 6 and 0. There is a, yes. And that's what my point is. Is there is a huge chance that they start, that they start 0 and 6, 0 and 5.

Baker is coming in against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You have heard it here first. So that would be that Baker plays more than eight games, like Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson's not playing eight games. Baker's actually going to play. So that, that, eight games. Wait, water bat. Do you believe Baker Mayfield will play eight, start eight games? Yes. Oh. Waterbed. All right. You better bring those flip-clops and swim trunks. Oh.

I don't believe it. You're taking a bath. All right. So you like Baker. Let's go to this one, the Fountain of Youth. Let's talk about Sequin Barclay in the power of the rookie running back in fantasy football. That is a storyline that has permeated multiple seasons, right? 2015, listen to this. Two rookie running backs in the top 10, DJ Gurley. 2016, you had one. Zeke, which I know somebody down here loves him, is in love with him.

One person. 2017, three rookie running backs inside the top 10. We know rookies are going to exist in that top 10. So all this risk and fear and fantasy football of drafting one, it's not been in my mind for years. Sequin's by far the best opportunity to be inside of that top 10. And to me, he is Zieg plus targets. That's the ceiling of Zieg plus targets. So I think he can be great.

I think Saquan is the one you want, and I think that there are going to be others that emerge, obviously. You have candidates in Royce Freeman. You have candidates elsewhere. What do you think?

How good can he be? Look, Sequin legitimately could be the number one running back at the end of the year. That's his ceiling. It's not out of the question. Last season, you look at Shane Vareen and Eli Manning, the second half of last year. He passed to the running back. But you're talking about 2006 for a second. He passed to the running back. Not just Vareen, too, Galman. Yes, more than any other team in the NFL. And now you draft one of the most prolific past catching running backs. And if you look at the guys who finish.

Number one overall at the position. They aren't just, you know, goal line first and second down backs. They're Levi-on-Bell catching as much as a wide receiver. David Johnson. Todd Gurley last year finally got to that spot because of pass catching. Nobody should be afraid to draft Ezekiel Elliott or Sequin. I mean, nobody. Don't be scared of Zeke either. Sure. Here's the deal. Pat Schumer.

In town, here's his offenses targeting the running back the past three years. In 2017, over 100 targets between Cook, McKinnon, and Latavius. 2016, 97 targets between McKinn, Asiata. Aziata. Aziata. And Adrian Peterson. In 2015, you know where he was. Wait. Come on, are you serious? Eagles.

Come on, guys. Come on. Are you serious? I'm trying to pander, and it's failing. Jason's the best. Yeah, fair enough. 166 targets between DeMarco Sprouls and Ryan Matthews. They throw to the running back. If you're going to be in the top five at the running back position, you have to catch at least 55 passes. Thank you, Mike.

It's probably not 55, but it has to be. Close enough. You round up and down to 55. That's the rule of fantasy football. I have no choice. But let's, and nobody out here is doubting the value of Saquo and Barclay at this point. So give them another rookie running back who has the most surprising fantasy impact. Sure. Do you want me? Are you jumping in, Mike? Yeah, I'll jump back in here because I expect big things from a lot of these rookie running backs.

So I was trying to look at a guy who maybe we aren't expecting it. So it's going to surprise. That's what surprise means. Boom. Surprise. You kind of got me a little bit. Jordan Wilkins. It would be surprising and yet unsurprising at the same time because Marlon Mack is there. I got really bad news. He's not good. He's not good at football. You're on my team now?

I've been on your team. I've been hiding in the shadows. Oh, my goodness. I've been using you as a human shield, deflecting all Marlon Mac takes, letting you absorb it. I like your take on a good, surprising rookie, but you guys need to go watch the film on Marlon Mac again. He is not a world-class great running back, but he is a very good running back, and I think he's better. He's here as well. Jordan Wilkins is also a...

He is a very, very well-rounded guy, but here's why it would be surprising. Even if I'm not wanting Marlon Mack on my team, he was a fifth round pick. You have to have something happen. You had Jordan Howard, who's been proven to be an incredible running back, but it took an injury to Jeremy Langford. Jordan Howard couldn't get on the field because of the veteran status of Jeremy Langford. So Marlon Mack and crew, it's...

Wilkins is not a week one starter, but he could be that second half waiver wire wonder who carries you into the title game. Somebody has to emerge there. Before you get to yours, I want to say, I believe in Ronald Jones. I've looked at this, and I know that you guys do not believe in Ronald Jones, but here's why I think that he can be a surprising second half force, one of the better rookie running backs. I think Tampa stinks. I think Tampa stinks. They're going to start the season.

They're going to have to lean on the running game early, which may not even be Ronald Jones early, but he's got quickness, he's got vision, he's got burst, he's got big plays. And this is a team that it's not going to go well for them in the beginning part of this year. There is no reason to spin their wheels on Charles Sims, on Peyton Barber on first and second down. They drafted Ronald Jones for a reason. And I think despite the fact that I generally love running backs on winning teams, the opportunity for Ronald Jones will be there.

I like him. He doesn't really have competition to me. I don't look at Peyton Barber as competition. I like Ronald Jones. Yeah, and, you know, if you're saying who's going to surprise me the most, it would be someone like Nick Chubb, who we can't forget about, very highly drafted guy, was awesome in college. But the truth is, you know, if we're giving advice, the guy that's being drafted the latest. Okay, Jason. Jason, before you say this, you know what happens. Every time you say his name, a certain thing happens.

And when that audio plays, his ADP goes up at least two spots. His average reposition is rising, Jason. So I'm not sure you want to do this. I don't want to say this. Everyone keep this quiet. But carry on Johnson. Oh. I mean, look, it's not even going to be a surprise anymore because you guys listen to us. It's not fair.

Why are you sniffing farts over here? Sniffing the farts. Look, I just really believe in Caryon Johnson. I will say this. If Caryon Johnson sucks, I'm going down in some flames. It is not going to be a good year for me. I have put a very large flag. Yeah, yeah, they've been a really good running game lately. In the Detroit backfield. You're starting to feel a little... I don't feel good about it. All right, you guys are going to like this one, maybe.

We'll call it too hot to handle. The fourth storyline here. The return of Carson Wins. We're giving this away tonight, by the way. It could be you. If you're interested. Signed Carson Wins. The return of Carson Wants and Deshawn Watson. Last year, the numbers were insane for these guys. So I think the storyline for fantasy owners is, do you believe it? And how much do you invest in it?

in fantasy draft. So, I guess I'll start here. Do you believe in the Super Bowl slump? Jason? Okay, so, no, what do you believe? We haven't even answered the question yet. They don't even like the concept of the Super Bowl slum. Let me just tell this crowd a little thing I just did in our Dynasty League yesterday. Oh, my gosh. Oh, no, stop. You're buttering them up. You're done right, I'm because I traded Aaron Rogers.

and Mark Ingram in a second to get Carson Wince and Jordan Howard, because I believe that Carson Wince is the real deal, and he is great. But I've got some bad news, and you're not going to want to hear it. We are hoping he's back for week one. We are hoping that Alshan Jeffrey is back week one. You lost your offensive coordinator. You lost your quarterback's coach.

It's hard to return after the Super Bowl. And so, yeah, there's going to be some regression for the Eagles. Deal with it. Don't hurt him. Yeah. Deal with that. Counterpoint. Counterpoint. I believe that the Super Bowl slump is real, but not this year.

And I'm not just saying it for the crowd. I've said it on Twitter a couple weeks ago. I have the Eagles and Chargers in the Super Bowl this year. And here's why it's different to me. Carson Wants is a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He didn't get to finish the season. He got to help carry them there. His leg is fine. It's a well-rounded team that is less dependent on one player's super season. Okay? You won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

The seasons that we've seen the Super Bowl slump, look, Maddie Ice had this otherworldly, out-of-nowhere, monstrous, unrepeatable season. Cam Newton did the same thing. Those teams saw regression. This is an easily winnable division. The Eagles are primed. He's got a chip on his shoulder. I think Carson wins. Now, that's not to say he's going to throw a touchdown every other pass the way he did last year. Yeah, I'm glad you brought it up because...

I want to spin this to the fantasy world. And you talked about the otherworldly seasons. Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, directly after their MVP-type seasons, they... Well, they didn't take a little end of the season off of an ACL. That's what they should... Sure. But...

Both of them had an unsustainable touchdown rate. So how can you talk about them and the regression that we saw happen? This is history. Well, so that's the question. How good are they really for fantasy owners? What is a fair expectation? Jason bought in enough to say he'd rather have Carson wins in a dynasty league over the next several years. So how good, what should they expect? Where does he belong? And how do Philly fans avoid drafting him in the first round?

It's a fair question. And here's... They don't. They don't avoid it. They just lean in and it works out. Here's the situation. Since the year 2000, quarterbacks with over 100 completions, Deshaun Watson had the second highest touchdown percentage season since the year 2000. Carson Wentz is ninth on that list. You cannot

possibly expect that to continue. We've seen three players since the year 2000 with a 9 plus touchdown percent year. One of those was Peyton Manning. He regressed from 9.9 down to 6.2. Aaron Rogers regressed from 9.0 down to 7.1. But here's the question. I talked about Peyton Manning and Aaron Rogers, who are going into the Hall of Fame immediately.

Are is Carson Wentz immediately going into the Hall of Fame after one season? He had one great season. And that's for Deshaun Watson. And for Carson Wentz, guys in the 7% range, or are you showing the socks over there? Maybe. Throwing me under the bus. Carson Wentz was in the 7% range. They've seen a similar drop of over 2% to their touchdowns. And if Carson Wentz's touchdowns, if they come back down,

you're in trouble for fantasy football. Here's the analogy I would use, whether it's wise or not. If you're a fantasy owner, the truth is you need to look at this like you're not trying to, it's a solid marriage, right? You're not going to draft him, and it's not going to be like the days when you were dating last year, and he was throwing four touchdowns a game at unsustainable rates. But it's a solid marriage. You're very, very happy with the other person as long as you don't draft him in the first few rounds.