Biggest Fantasy Storylines for 2018 - LIVE in Philly

We're talking about the health. Nope, not Ray Rice. We're talking about the health. Whoa. Oh. Talking about the health of Andrew Luck? No. No. No. All right. So here's the simple question as I knock your mic over. What happens if he's healthy? What happens if Andrew Luck is healthy? What are the implications of a healthy Andrew Luck? All signs point to him throwing real footballs. We met with some foot clam members before the show. Yes.

And all the research we've done, all the models we've looked at, we realized that quarterbacks, when they play, better for fantasy. Many more points. More points than if they don't. So what happens if he's healthy underluck for this year? What are you looking at? So for me, you've got to look at the facts of what Andrew Luck has done. And Andrew Luck is great. Andrew Luck has been a sensational fantasy quarterback. But the bigger question.

for us, for fantasy players, the supporting cast. And here's the actual truth for Andrew Luck and what he has supported. He has supported a top 18 wide receiver or better. In three of four years, he had a wide receiver one on his team. We're talking T.Y. Hilton, who gets a huge, huge bump if Andrew Luck happens to play. But that's where it tops out. And that's it. And this is where people get really, really excited about Andrew Luck.

Colts, high-scoring offense. T.Y. Hilton's back. Wide receivers up to Wazoo. Ryan Grant has arrived. Ryan Grant's. Yeah. No, but I see it on Twitter. People want to know. He's he a flyer. But here's the deal. Only once, only one time has Andrew Luck when he's playing, had a top 20 running back on his team. And that was the Infinity Stone. Frank Gore was running back 12. The wide receiver 2.

Not pretty. His rookie season, he had some good wide receivers, including Reggie Wayne, who at that time had become his wide receiver, too, for fantasy, wide receiver 31. You're talking an average finish. The second wide receiver for the Colts, when Andrew Luck is playing, an average finish, wide receiver 65. That's bad. It's 10 over where I wanted it to be. Oh. But I cannot fudge it. Are we going with it? No, we're not going with it. I just remembered I need to be ready for those moments. You certainly do.

He's had a top 14 tight end, though, three times. So that's... You hear that, Jason? Eric Ebron. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. So, where's your Ebron picture? Yeah. So that's the truth about Andrew Luck. We automatically assume a prolific quarterback comes back and everyone's going to get better. And he...

We can be hopeful. Let me piggyback because you brought up the running backs, and I know he hasn't sustained a great running back. But to me, his health means hope for the running game in general. I don't see any hope for them with Ed Andrew Luck because the offense can be good enough to get them in a position where maybe is Jordan Wilkins, and he's a steal of your fantasy draft, or maybe Naim Hines gets involved more than we think. Or Bob Turbin. Oh, he'll be back. He'll be back. Or the Mac attack. You know, maybe your guy, he shows up.

The thing is, is you need hope out of that backfield. And if the offense can't move the ball, this is going to be, they're in a competitive division. So they'll be in the basement, and I won't be excited about the running game if Andrew Luck's not healthy. The one thing I will say for the Colts this year, because I've been the most anti-believing that Andrew Luck is back. You know, I just, I really hesitate, you know, even now he's still saying.

I'm sore, but not as sore as I was. And it's like, just be better. It's been two years. He's doing his best. But I actually do think, I like drafting the Colts this year. I like drafting Luck, T.Y. Hilton, because all the way up to your draft, people still will have a little bit of uncertainty, which will push the price down. And should Andrew Luck not be healthy? And this is kind of my take on the opposite question. Let's go to that. What happens if he's not healthy? What if he's not? They will be better.

offensively and for fantasy this season, then they were last season. I think that the change of coach going to Frank Reich, I mean, how did Frank Reich do for you guys? You are the worst! Don't worry, he'll get his hate. I will not be pandering to this crowd all night. But my point is, they've got a good offensive mind there, and, you know, T.Y. Hilton finished 25th last season without Andrew Luck, so I am willing to draft.

All Colts, and I think they're probably going to be a value. And by all Colts, all Colts, I mean Marlon Mack. You're saying even if he's not healthy. Yes, I think there's going to be a value there. It's just trouble. They were a value last year, too, eh? Yeah, Pagano. I think if Andrew Lucks not back, they may be picking first in the NFL draft. They're in too competitive a division.

with Houston and Jacksonville and Tennessee, I think that it's just trouble across the board. And I won't even want to start T. by Hilton. Yes, he finished 25th. And that was on the back of what, two games? Yes. Those are nice games, though. Great games. If you can pick them. All right. Second storyline I want to talk about, we're going to call new kids on the block, right? We're talking. Oh, oh, oh. Yeah, someone has to know that. I know it. You're the old kid on the block now. Hey, NKOTB for life. Wow. Scoot back.

We're talking about new quarterbacks. So we're talking about the five first round rookie quarterbacks. And then the quarterbacks that switched teams. So you had Kirk Cousins, Patma Holmes as a starter this year, Case Keenolm, Alex Smith switched teams. I think that this is one of the bigger storylines of fantasy in 2018. Which quarterback for you makes the biggest impact on their new team's fantasy prospects? Because that's what we're paying attention to do. I don't care if they're going to win or just be better.

Oh, all right. I don't even think Sam Darnold's in camp yet. That was, actually, that was Sam. That was Sam? Yeah, Sam's up in the balcony. Thanks, Sam. Thanks for coming out. Nice to meet you. But who makes the biggest difference fantasy-wise? I'm going to let the footland in on a little... What did I say? No, this is behind the scenes. Okay. And I'm going to pass it right to him. Because...

Jason has a quarterback written down here, and I can see a little bit of his argument, except his argument is words, words, words, words, words. Yeah, that's kind of my specialty, Mike. So I hope he has something up his sleeve. Your notes are words, words, words, words, words, words. Words, words. Words, words. Words, words. Thank you. Yeah, look, my quarterback that's making the biggest improvement for their team is Case Keenum.

Case Keenham, and if you've listened to him, they're laughing because he didn't. Case Keenum. You already won. It is a good quarterback, which is a compliment to the fact that you beat him. Yeah, that does work in their favor. It does work in their favor. He is a good quarterback. When we thought he was a poor quarterback, he was playing for Jeff Fisher. Everyone is a poor quarterback playing for Jeff Fisher. Yeah, even Nick Foles. Am I right? Right? Am I right?

I can do it too. So I believe he, I mean, look, in college football history, he is the number one all-time leader in yards. He is also the number one all-time leader in touchdowns. The guy doesn't suck. But last year, Brock Osweiler, Trevor Simeon, they did nothing for the Denver Broncos offense. So I think Demerius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, I even think Cortland Sutton actually might.

get play towards the end of this season, as well as, you know, the Freeman at running back. I think that Case Keenham makes a huge difference for that. Mike, you're on board with that, too. Yeah, 100%. That's my guy because the wide receivers are so good. They got fully bodied this past season, and they were not the wide receivers for fantasy that we wanted, that we expect, that we know they can be, because the quarterback play was insufferable.

You saw Case Kingdom is 20 points better. At 20 point positive in the passer rating, it has to be an upgrade. Meanwhile, some of these others' wide receiver or quarterbacks who are starting for new teams, they already had an impact. So, I mean, they have to keep the status quo. The pressure is on that. That's the angle I'm going to take, because for me, it's actually Kirk Cousins because the expectations in fantasy are so high.

For all of the Minneapolis fantasy impact guys, right? Diggs and Thielen and Cook and Rudolph. And you have so much of an expectation for him to come in and at least provide what Keenham did. Now, he might do it. I think Kurt Cousness has put up pretty prolific fantasy numbers, things that guys don't generally do year over a year. But he's also got a lot of pressure on his shoulders. It's not often that you have an NFC championship team.

that has turnover at offensive coordinator, that has turnover at the quarterback position. He comes in with, look, if there's one thing that Cousins has done in his career, it's the mental mistakes. It's not bearing the pressure. Guys didn't want him in town. He's made some...

Questionable calls, I'll never forget him taking a knee at the end of the first half. Instead of spiking the ball. Instead of spiking the ball. About to score, take a knee. So I think for the relevance of all of the Minnesota players, the pressure's on cousin's shoulders to be what you think he's going to be in fantasy. All right. One more question there. Which rookie quarterback has the highest year one upside? I can't believe. Everybody, every fantasy owner wants to find.

There's no question. It's a clear-cut answer. It is. I can't believe both of you are on this wagon. Yeah, we both have Lamar Jackson. Yeah. Lamar Jackson is going to be, look, if we're talking about who has the highest upside, who has the highest upside, it's not who's got the highest percentage of finishing well. But who has the highest upside? It's Lamar Jackson. We know this, that Russian quarterbacks.

They score more fantasy points. I don't like it, but it's true. Here's a thing. Let me ask the crowd, because they know this was a local guy. Who's the best running back to come out of college in years just drafted? Sequoan Barkley is a beast. They don't know how to feel about him anymore. I can feel it. It's tough. I can feel it. But who had more rushing yards last year?

Or Lamar Jackson, the quarterback. I'm not going to go, you're 100% right, and I'm just going to piggyback on him because what has been established around Lamar Jackson is what excites me so much. They drafted him for a purpose. Joe Flacco has been stunningly bad. Yes. I think he's made $112 million, and he's been dead last in the league in a ton of the more important categories, including touchdown to interception ratio. James Urban.

Quarterback coach for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore was the quarterback coach for Mike Vic knows how to use a player that can run the ball and has the dual threat. You have Greg Roman. He set the blueprint for Colin Kaepernick when he had a monster season. So all the pieces are built around him. I don't have confidence that Joe Flacco is going to hold him off. And if he starts, he will be a fantasy force. He will be a top 10 level guy. So to me, it's Lamar Jackson. Who do you have, Mike?

He's not going to start. That's the problem. I get it. How sure are you? How many games? Give me an over under. Make it good. Eight games. Oh, yeah. Hit it. Hit it. Waterbed. I'm going Razor Ramon on you over here. It's over. Eight games. Joe Flacco this season. This will be the year. It doesn't matter. It doesn't.

They were 9 and 7 this past season. They were a shadow away from making the playoffs. They're not making a quarterback change for a guy who's counting almost $25 million against the cap this year. He counts 26 million against the cap this next year. He is the quarterback 100% for this season. As much as I want to see Lamar Jackson see what he can do, his upside.

is maybe he plays a couple games because Joe Flacco got hurt. The guy who actually has upside is the number one pick in the draft who will be playing this season with this guy. Baker Mayfield. We know that there are no rookies who are locked in to start week one. I don't think Baker is going to start week one. Oh my gosh, we're going to make another bet. Wait, oh my good. Okay, hold it. Just save it over there. Here's the thing.

Jason wanted to talk about rushing quarterbacks. Okay. Baker Mayfield averaged six rushing touchdowns a season when he was the full-time starter. He had two seasons over 300 rushing yards. Yeah, that's not Lamar Jackson, but that's Alex Smith. That's Aaron Rogers. That gives you a huge bump if you're putting up 300 or 400 yards on the ground. Here's the deal with the Cleveland Browns. I took a look at their record over the past two years. I've heard. I've heard rumors. You did some counting?