Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2015, Part 2

But Landry is somebody who, if you stole him as your wide receiver 2, you probably did really well in your league, especially in PPR leagues. Yes, that was going to be my point is when you're talking PPR, it's a completely different thing for Jarvis Landry. But the 165 targets for Landry, I'm not sure that will repeat itself. You have a completely new coaching staff.

I like Adam Gaze. So it's sure it's possible he could do that, but I would look for those targets to come down, which means that Jarvis Landry's just overall, just all of his numbers, all of his stats will come down because he's that, because of who he is as a receiver, a possession guy. Matt, Matt Harmon, good friend of the show here, the author of Reception Perception, put out an article recently talking about.

which was surprising, I think, to what our normal thoughts were on offenses that basically struggled when their leading receiver was out of the slot. We think about, you know, the New England and those types that succeed. But what we forget there is that...

Edelman wasn't actually in the slot the majority of the time. He played outside a lot. He did. And so with a new offensive coordinator, with a whole new coaching staff coming in, I agree with you that it's a little worrisome with, you've got Devante Parker there that looked like he can be what they drafted him to be. So for Jarvis Landry, he could become the second wide receiver on the team as he should be working out of the slot, in which case.

Is he going to get another 110 receptions, or is it going to be 90, 100, and numbers come down a little bit? Absolutely. I think that's a really good take. I think Landry is somebody who, over the second half of the season, you can see he alternated double-digit and single-digit games in half-point PPR. He wasn't as consistent as the first half of the season. Now you throw some question marks into the mix. I don't think he's going to fall to the point of being in great value. So I think that...

I think that's a good take. I think Parker's got to be the lead dog there for that offense to succeed, and they need to be more consistent running the ball. And they ran through the air to use a Jason phrase with Landry very often. And they force-fed him a lot. So did you have a final thought on him? The only other thought I have is that, you know, I'm not sold on Tana Hill as a quarterback, and I feel like Tanna Hill is laser-locked onto Landry. And I don't know if a coaching staff can change that. That's my only thought. They should.

They should be going to Devante Parker, but will they be able to with Tannahill? All right. At number 16, we have a guy that I would draft over Landry Hearns, that I would draft over Brandon Cooks. And that's Sammy Watkins, because here's a guy with margin. And here's what I mean. He had a season. He finished 16th in fantasy. He only played 13 games, 95 targets, 60 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He ended up as the 12th most consistent wide receiver.

But man, does he have margin to me? He is built and was drafted as and has the talent to be better than these numbers. Sammy Watkins was going to be my breakout player in that way too early breakout. The problem is he's already 16th. But it's very similar to DeAndre Hopkins last year. DeAndre Hopkins was a wide receiver two last year, but he broke out this year. Sammy Watkins should be a...

an absolute top-wide receiver for many years of his career in the NFL. Sammy Watkins, you saw once he was healthy. I mean, he missed some games with injury. You should have a little bit more consistency now. I mean, they didn't have Tyrod Taylor as the quarterback in the early. I mean, you didn't even know he was going to be the quarterback. So I have a question for you because you made a great point on Tuesday about DeAndre Hopkins.

and the change of that defense from the midway. Houston's defense was terrible. Hopkins numbers were through the roof. Look, we know what... I know where this is going. Well, my point is that Rex wants to be Houston from the second half of the year. That's what he wants to be. That's not what his hiring has done. What do you mean? Oh, Rob Ryan? His brother? Well, okay, but they still have... His brother is, what, an assistant? Yes. He's not the coordinator.

My point is not that they will succeed with the goal. It's very much a possibility. Rex Ryan has led many great defensive teams. There were some problems with Mario Williams and that defense struggled. I don't know if Watkins will get the opportunity to be what he can be if that defense is shutting people down. If that defense is performing well, I can't help but think Watkins would be in the boat that you painted for.

Hopkins. Sure, sure. I see that. I do love Mike's point about Rob Ryan. Has Rob Ryan ever led a successful defense? Of course. Yes, he has. I don't, I just don't. I don't remember when. Yeah, I don't, I don't remember. So he was at Dallas before. Every, every, I think the Saints were great with him. Actually, you know what happens with him? The Saints were great with him. This is something.

I believe when he changes teams, they do have a good first year, and then they regress. Because before the Saints... Dallas. He was with Dallas, and when he came, they had a good first year, and then they fell off the map. His tenure is not long in these places, but he was... They were like a top five defense in New Orleans. Okay. But then obviously not last year.

But let's not focus on Rob Ryan because that's not the – I'm back to Sam. They want to be a defensive team. Rex Ryan is a defensive coach, and they've succeeded before. Yeah, I still love Sammy Watkins. I think that the talent level is there. Between weeks, eight and 16, he was the number six wide receiver. He was ahead of Brandon Cooks, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, D'Andre Hopkins.

Calvin Megatron Johnson. He was finishing, he was ranked higher than these guys. Which weeks? Weeks 8 to 16. So the second half of the fantasy season. So he was a beast. And that was because of Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod is good. They have a quarterback. They've got it figured out despite their, whoever said that was like the GM. Someone said, well, Tyrod's going to have to go out there.

and show it. Yeah, he's got to prove it. Yeah, well, pretty sure we saw it. I mean, you had a good quarterback there for the first time in years. So I like Watkins. I mean, over the course of an entire half of football, he was dominant. Yeah, it's a good point. They gave up a lot of points over the second half of the season. So I'll be curious to see. I'm not trying to throw a bunch of shade on him. He's a hyper top 12 talent for sure. I will take a guy.

just like him on a better offense. Oh, yeah. I mean, would you take Jordy Nelson coming back in Green Bay over Sammy Watkins? That's tough, man. That's a great one. I think that I would. Jordan Nelson. We're talking redraft, of course, right? Yeah, it would have to be. If it was any kind of keeper or obviously dynasty, then Watkins just has to you on the side.

Right now I might take Watkins. Okay. This next guy on my list, I have a little flashback for you guys. If you can bear with it. Nothing you can take to tear me away from my guy. I also find that drop to be just hilarious because it's such a disparity, hardcore and the my guy. But my guy is number 17. The dirty cake. The dirty cake himself. Jeremy Macklin.

15 games, 124 targets, 87 receptions, and wouldn't you believe it? Over a thousand yards receiving. A thousand 88. Barely over. Oh, okay. Barely over a thousand yards. Well, he had eight touchdowns. He was the 13th most consistent receiver. He wasn't a guy that blew up very often, but he was the first wide receiver read and a very reliable one for it.

Alex Smith. He was somebody who we were fearful in the playoffs had destroyed his career again, but didn't. And so projecting forward Jeremy Macklin, one thing that's surprising about him is that he performed a lot better against tough defenses. He was matchup proof, you'd say. He had 16 points a game against top 16 defenses as opposed to 10 against bottom 16, and we all know why that is.

Because when they crush people, they just ran the ball. Yep. So project him forward. I mean. Projecting him forward, I see him as a higher end wide receiver two. Because you've got a guy that's reliable. You want, generally speaking, the number one on the team. And he is.

But it goes back to that defense. The Kansas City defense is too good for Jeremy Macklin to be able to have fantasy production that's going to win you weeks by himself on any kind of consistent basis. So I'm happy with him as a high-end wide receiver two next year. I pretty much agree with that take and where I would project him to be. I'd love to have him as my two. Yeah, he's still probably going to be a tougher guy for me to draft because I'm looking at a lot of these names.

underneath him and I would like them on my team more than Macklin. I just, it's, it would, not me. Yeah, that's very interesting because the guys on the list after him, a lot of them are twos as opposed to a one. Macklin's the one. Yeah, and I understand that there's just a... You see, he's the number one receiver on a football team. I got that part of it. Uh-huh. It just is... He's on an Alex Smith team. Yeah, that's what the problem is.

It's Alex Smith. All right. So I'll be curious. We're going to ask you the question as we go through these next five names of would you take him over, Jeremy. And when I say of others, there's some guys on the list that I want more. It's not that I'm saying, I'm throwing massive shade on Macklin saying he's bad and will be useless for fantasy. Just I know where he's going to be drafted or making an assumption of where he's going to be drafted. Well, what I took, paying that price, I'm not sure what I took you to mean when you said looking at the guys below him.

I took that to mean if those two guys were on the board. It's whatever round, third round, fourth round, fifth round, wherever. Jeremy Macklin and let's say this next guy, Emmanuel Sanders, they're both on the board. They're the only two wide receivers out there. Who you take. Yeah. Yeah, that's how I take it too. I'll take him Sanders there. Okay. Okay. So let's talk about Sanders, 15 games, 137 targets. He was somebody that was hyped up a lot before the season. He didn't really let you down in a, you know,

bust type of capacity, but he certainly didn't give you and couldn't have given you another year of career highs. No. Because generally you don't see that year after year. You know, one of the crazy things for me with him, he has been, Manuel Sanders has been a PPR monster over the last few years. That's what I've really loved about him. And the targets, I felt like were still pretty there to, you know, get up near.

somewhere near that 100 catch range, but he only finished with 76 receptions. I think there were four less targets than the year before and 25 less receptions. That's just weird. Is that quarterback play? Is that all it is? That's Manning to me. And if it is, then you have to say that's not better next year.

Yeah, depending on who the quarterback is, you mean? Well, I mean, in what situation is it going to be better? If they bring in someone new, it's not going to be better. If Peyton Manning's back, is he going to be better a year older? And if Brock is there, is that better than what? I mean, I guess that's maybe he could prove to become better if Brock is back for a whole year. That's the only situation. He really didn't put up big reception numbers with Brock, and it's a good point. He had 25 less receptions this year, three less touchdowns. This is kind of where I see him.

At this 18 range? In his in his totals. I don't know if that'll break down to 18, 19, 15, whatever. But these type of numbers seem very repeatable to me. You know, six touchdowns from a guy his size makes sense to me. 75 receptions, a big role in the offense, a guy who makes big plays, but isn't a wide receiver one. Yeah, I wouldn't draft him as a one. But if Brock Osweiler is back,

I think that he can slightly improve the... I feel like the touchdowns can go up. Well, you must because you take him over Jeremy Maclin. Man, you know, it's crazy to look at... When you compare Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, Emmanuel Sanders, he had 13 more targets than Jeremy Maclin and 11 less receptions. And Emmanuel Sanders has very good hands. I love the player. Yeah.