Fantasy Football - Breakout Picks + Injury Anger, Mike Returns! - Podcast for 8/17

I think you might stand alone in this, in this studio on. Because I want it known that I do. I want it known that I do stand alone on this. And I'm looking at you, Mike. I stand alone. You are to the lowest. You have him at running back 26. I'm very out. You're out. Shooketh. So, um, what an honest guy, Mike is. I am going this is calling balls and strikes guys. I'm going against the grain. It feels contrarian.

which is a little weird, but my breakout pick. Not ADP-wise. Well, a little bit, a little bit in both directions. I'll explain. My breakout is Trayvion Henderson, an absolute dynamo of a running back, an explosive, you know, anytime he touches the ball, he can house it, he can get a touchdown. He had a very weird rookie year, right? The first two months of the season, he was not used. He was basically, like, he didn't get nine touches a game.

He was kind of a gadgety guy, the rookie being brought along slowly, despite the fact that he was almost the first round pick. He was like super high second round pick. The draft capital was there. The explosiveness, we still saw it in those plays, but it took Ramandre going down to an injury before he really got to explode. However, once he was a part of the offense, it was a clear working strategy. He was.

dominant he was very very good in fact during that time from week nine on he was the running back nine averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game when it happened he was a monster yeah his rookie season he not to be confused with uh remonster correct correct not to be confused with remonster yeah yeah you you can hit yeah people don't really like that one um

But here's the thing. He was good. I know I've heard Andy say, oh, I don't like how he looked between the tackles or whatever. But the truth is he was a very good running back. He was extremely efficient. Of 55 qualifying running backs with 80 or more rushing attempts, he was number one in yards before contact, six and yards per carry, 12th and explosive rush rate at 5.6. That was identical to Bijon Robinson.

He had four touchdown runs of 50 or more yards last year, most in the NFL. So this is a guy you want the ball in his hands. And they gave him work inside the 10. He, you know, Ramandre had 16 10 zone rush attempts. Trayvion had 21. How good was his rookie year? He had 1100 total yards and 10 rushing touchdown or 10 total touchdowns. He did that on only 215 touches. He's a good running back.

He's a good player. He's explosive. The argument against him is, is Ramandre Stevenson. That is the whole argument against him is that he's going to be behind him. And it should be an easy argument to overcome, but I fear that it has become. And totally. And that's why he's not being drafted in the first or second round. He was a rookie running back who averaged over five yards per carry, had a 50 plus percent rush success and 10 touchdowns. Since the year 2000, which is amazingly over a quarter of a century ago.

I don't believe you. Oh, I know. I felt bad when I realized that. The only guys who have done that in their rookie season is Clinton Portis, Zeke, Camara, Jonathan Taylor, and A-chan. And then now Trayvion Henderson. You say that Henderson is being drafted super high like he's broken out. But he's actually, his ADP is so far beyond what those other guys year two were. Those other guys were all first-round picks or A-chan was a second-round pick.

the following year. We're talking to 4-11, almost a fifth round pick here for Trayvion Henderson. I realize he's in a time share, but Jason, you know, the time share is a big deal. Except the fact that, like, those other guys that I just mentioned, Camara, he was with Mark Ingram, who had 12 rushing touchdowns and was the running back six his rookie year. H.N. was with Moster, who had, he was the running back two with like 20 touchdowns.

Yeah, it's, the point that I am saying is, let me give you your exclamation point. Go ahead. Is that this is the type of player that you have to take a shot on to truly be a breakout candidate. That's true. You have to call your shot that the backfield just won't stay the same. And that's what we have seen over and over. Nick Chubb was an explosive guy, but he was bare, you know, it was like Carlos Hyde. That was a big problem. Then they traded him away. Camero with Ingram, James Cook with Devon Singletary. Sounds silly.

afterwards, but in that year, Gibbs and Monty. It was like when there is the more explosive special player with high draft capital, they're going to end up getting the work. And honestly, we saw it last year. This is the thing that I think what happened in the playoffs when they played these unfathomably great defenses. I mean, their run of playoff to get to the Super Bowl, they played Super D, Super D, Super D.

And Ramandre was the guy on the field. I get that. But when Ramandre came back from injury during Trevo's rookie season from weeks 12 on, they gave Henderson 13.3 rushing attempts per game. And they gave Ramandre 7.8. Like the switch happened. You get to the playoffs. You go, oh, we got to do the trusted. They play defense. They didn't score a lot of points. It was a great strategy.

I think as a full season goes on, your most explosive player is going to get the ball more than Ramandre. And if that does happen, and that has to happen to pay off at 411. But if Trayvion Henderson ends up at the end of the year with the 60-40 opportunity count over Ramandre, he's going to be a great pick, a top back. So I'm calling him a breakout player now because next year, if he broke out, you just go, oh, I mean, that was a great pick.

There's only one of two directions it goes. I don't think there's a world where he is exactly what you're drafting him as right now. Okay. Personally. Yeah, I think it's a tough situation to see what happened in his rookie year because you had his three first, his first three productive games were when Ramandre missed. And then Ramandre was limited in practices and stuff coming back. And they obviously were kind of, they showed what they wanted to do when they got to the playoffs, in my opinion.

So to me, there is a world where he's the exact same thing. And I worry about his past protection. There's nothing about him to me that says three down back. Just me personally, from what I saw in the field. I think he's a compliment back. I think he's an explosive guy. But the reports in the off season have been really negative about his past protection. They have. And Romandre is the thing that nobody wants to say out loud is that he's a really good running back. We were willing to say it when Trevo didn't exist, when he got a contract extension. And we were excited about him then.

Now he just represents a thorn in the side of this other sexier guy that we like. But the team said, in my opinion, they said in the playoffs that Ramandre is their number one running back. I think, I think Romandre is a very good running back. I'm not afraid to say that. This isn't like Rashad White where I'm going, all he's got to do is beat Ramandre and that's so easy. My point is more.

David Montgomery was a good running back. Mark Ingram was a good running back. These other guys in these really good offenses time shares are good running backs. The more explosive, the better running back can be great for fantasy. And I'm surprised Andy. They have to be the better running back though. Yeah, they do have to be the... That's the rub. I don't know that he has to be better. He just, he has to duplicate being that explosive and efficient and hitting that many big plays. Yeah. And the thing is, is

How do you look at the Patriots offense? I know, Andy, you've been very, very bullish on Drake May being legit, being a top quarterback in the league from what he did last year. He was an MVP candidate, got to the Super Bowl. You are a believer that it's real. If this offense ends up as one of those top five or six offenses in the league, I don't think it takes a complete bell cow.

total volume going to Henderson to be really successful. However, there is the world where, I mean, Ramandre has missed 10 games in the last three years. He's not been a pillar of health. When he went down last year, you say you don't have evidence of him being able to be a bell cow. Well, in those four games, he was. I didn't say that. You said, you didn't say a bell cow, you said three down back. I said, I don't see him as a three down back.

in the NFL, which is why his, I didn't say, I didn't have evidence of it. I said, I don't see that being his, his prototypical, what you're going to see on a regular basis. Anybody can be forced into that if their leader, if the lead back gets hurt. Yeah, you, you, I mean, you basically said, I didn't say the word evidence. You said we haven't had anything to make us believe it.

I let's go to the tape. I mean, we, because you said, I can't quote you correctly. I said we haven't seen anything to make us believe it's a three down back. But in those four games, in those four games, he was on pace for three hundred and 44 opportunities. I'm allowed to have an opinion that's different than you. But you're also allowed that I don't think that the, that he's a three down back in the NFL. You're also allowed. You're also allowed to like what you say.

stand by what you say and not change it 10 minutes later. I didn't change it. I didn't say he was. The nice thing is we have tape. I have evidence. There's no evidence. I said I don't see him as a three down back. And the team doesn't. That's why they don't play him on third down very often sometimes because Ramandre can pass protect. You don't like it that I have a different opinion and that's okay. What I'm saying is that Ramon? Who's the number one running back on the team? Ramondre. Okay. He's the number one. What does number one running back mean? Carries.

It means the guy that they look to when, yeah, I mean, I think carries. I think at the end of the year, Henderson has more carries. Mike Rabel is a big part of the equation. They're a successful team that went to the Super Bowl with this recipe. Ramondre Stevenson is a Ravel type guy. He does the dirty work. They love him. They throw him the football. It was great in the passing game. I like Ramondre, but we've got to have a bet here. And the bet that I think you will easily. The bet that I think you will easily take and easily lose. I'm sorry. I shared a different opinion.

That is not what I'm saying. My God. I'm sorry. You are on one. We will check the tape. Yeah, we will. The bet that I think you will definitely take is when they are both healthy, like if they're both playing in the game, total carries on the season. Like carries per game. I think Henderson has more than a remandre, which would make him. I mean, I'm fine with that. I don't really like the...

situation right now, but I'll give you that. Waterbet. Injury's notwithstanding, of course. Yeah, that's what I said. When they're both playing, in games played, I think Henderson leads the back in rushing attempts. You can have them as a breakout. I do. I'm sorry for filling in the other side. I hope you're right, Jason. Mike is also on my side just quietly on the side that he doesn't have the confidence. He's playing both sides. He's hoping on one and believing on the other. We'll take a break and talk mailbag. You're picky about your fantasy draft.

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That would have been a mucus fest. Did you hear Matt's mailbag? No. You didn't hear what happened? It was really exactly as you expect. No, we don't. The situation that happened, Mike, just to give you the quick TLDR, is that Mike, Jason, I gave Jason the power to choose who does the mailbag. Okay. He chose Matt. When Matt was given the chance to do the mailbag, he was dead silent. He didn't say anything. He was trying to set these guys up to help him.

And then he just was quiet to try to sell him down the river. So then I said, I'm not hitting the drop again. You're doing the music and the drop. And he did an effort at that. He did try to do that. Well, I'll have to check it out. All right. If you have a question for the show, we're here to help. Go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Click to submit a question button or dial our voicemail out hotline 302464 TFFB. YouTube question from Josh.