Fantasy Football 2018 - The Rookie Show Part 1: RB & WR

I see them in the exact same boat. They're extremely well-rounded. They can do absolutely anything on the field. They're great. Pass catchers. They'll run up the middle. They'll run to the side. They can do it all, but they're not extraordinary talents when it comes to athleticism. They don't pop off the charts at the combine. And I think these two guys are the quintessential, like John Kelly, Carry on Johnson.

Those are the two guys that I'm watching more than, where if they go in the fifth, sixth round, they're dead than me. They'll be drafted as backups if they go in the fifth round. Right, exactly. And then they're just not even going to be on my radar. But if some team says, look, I really like this well-rounded approach. And he could work in our system. It comes up and trades up into the third to get him. Then one of those two guys will be very high. We can't move on to wider series without letting you talk about Rashad Penny. Oh! Yeah. You cannot move.

Jason. The only rush for 2,248 yards, guys. He only averaged 7.8 a carry and 7.5 of carry his last two years at San Diego State. Oh, man. A Midwest Conference team. So what do we think? Mike, are you with Jason on this Penny train? I would say I'm probably sitting. Lil Penny? Well, Jason's conducting this train. I mean, he is the one shoveling the coal into the furnace.

I'm riding, you know, in that first class. The first class box train. I can't possibly drive it, but I see the potential. You see why people are buying a ticket? Yes, he is a very sneaky runner of hiding behind his blockers, forcing defenders to overcommit. His burst is incredible. He's a higher level athletes. The competition, it scares me, though.

And on top of that, you saw a year ago, you saw Donnell Pumfrey pronounced with the, ouch, pronounce with an unfree, be one of the most productive running backs in NCAA history. So that's where I have to just sit back in the train. I cannot drive it. Sure. And that makes complete sense. A lot of people worry about the competition, the production of the system, because you did see that with Pumfrey.

I think there's the biggest most monumental difference is that Donnell Pumfrey was a tiny thimble of a man. And Rashad Penny is, you know, 511, 220 runs a 4-4-6. He is an NFL prototypical back. I saw enough in the receptions he had to say he is good at receiving. I think his receiving skills will be able to, he'll be capable enough. But as a runner, he is.

He is everything that I look for as far as shifty inside, outside. I have notes here that just say dropped my jaw, things like that. And granted, lower competition, but he was involved in special teams and he was electric. And every time he touched the ball, other teams, I mean, if you go and watch like the Boise State game, one of his worst games, you just see that other team said, we're playing no safeties. It's goal line.

when you're on your 20 because that was their only weapon. And he was just, I really do. Rashad Penny is my favorite guy that I'll be rooting for to go high in the draft. If he falls below the third round, I'm going to cry. All right. We'll talk about more players. You guys can pick out maybe on the Thursday show. We'll pick out kind of a sleeper candidate. Fair. But let's go ahead and talk wide receivers. And we would not talk wide receivers without Matt Harmon.

the wide receiver guru coming on the show chatting with us. So let's do that now. Wide receivers. The fantasy footballers are extremely excited to bring on good friend of the show, great friend of the podcast, Mr. Matt Harmon from NFL.com, who's lately been blowing up your television screens as well, getting some of that handsome airtime. Jason Moore, I know he's looking at me. I know that he appreciates it. Oh, yeah. I mean, Harmon, you're so handsome.

Thanks for coming on the show. Well, now I'm instantly regretting it because I feel embarrassed. But of course, Footland, you know Harmon from the ultimate draft kit, and he brought his reception, I should say, we both have added in there, and he's given you great breakdowns of wide receivers and their skill talking rookies. And in the ultimate draft kit, that's where you can find the exclusive veteran breakdown of our top 50.

wide receivers. But today we're going to be talking about rookies. And I'm sure Matt's making the circuit around the podcast area. So of course he had to stop in at home base with the fantasy footballers. Matt, how are you doing? I've been talking a lot about you and you are not talking at all. Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm used to. I just try to stay quiet. But no, honestly, thank you guys so much for having me. Yeah, it's like, I mean, friend of the show. I should be like best friend of the show. Oh, you are the BFF.

Like second cousin of the show maybe even. I don't know. Something like that. Like pretty close relative of the show. But yeah, no, it's a fun rookie class to talk about. I know for your listeners, you know, we're not, don't worry, we're not going to go into like the 30th guy that's going to be a UDFA that does never going to matter ever. But like looking at this class is really fascinating, especially because I think so much for fantasy owners, it's going to be about fit. And that's what I think spending like the last four or five years with perception perception, I think that's really what it's best at is showing us.

where these guys can fit and what they might do well at the NFL level. So I think that would be a productive conversation for your listeners to dive into. We're going to try and hit on some of these rookies so that people, when they're watching the draft, they are paying attention and go, oh, that's a name that was highlighted. So let's start. I know you're not really a rankings type of guy, Matt, but who, so we'll just start with your favorite wide receiver in this class. Who are you looking at?

Yeah, the rankings discussion is fasting this year too because honestly there's not a lot of separation between like who you would, even like when I'm sitting here talking to myself like because I don't have anything else to do. Like who would I rank number one versus who would I rank number 10? There's not a lot of separation between those guys. Like it's a really close class just all the way here with some of the guys we're going to talk about today. I think probably my favorite guy.

I don't know, again, if I'd rank him number one, is probably DJ Moore, who I know a lot of people. That's my man. That's my man, yes. I know you were excited about him, Mike, when I posted perception for perception. And I think, you know, he's really indicative of what I think about this entire draft class, which is that there's not a clear, you know, cut number one receiver. But then again, there's very few of those guys in the NFL right now today if you think about it. I mean, I did this exercise on Twitter the other day to...

you know, getting people's feedback, like who would you consider a true number one receiver in the NFL? I felt like it got to about eight names before, like, we were pushing it. But so DJ more to me, I don't know that I think he's going to be like an elite number one receiver in the NFL, but he really fits to me in the mold of like a Golden Tate type of player, wins on those shorts, intermediate routes, and creates a lot of layup throws for whichever quarterback he ends up playing with. So I expect him to go off the board in round one.

and be a really productive player for a long time that helps bring some of those easier completions for a quarterback. Yeah, I know he is an athletic freak. He blows up Mike's rookie model. Yeah, my computer caught fire when I put DJ Moore's market share in there. Yeah, let's talk about a guy that he doesn't blow up a lot of people's combine.

models or the age model, but is for, you know, a lot of people, the number one wide receiver in this draft. Calvin Ridley, you watched the All-22 film that you have exclusive access to. So lucky. You know, what did you, what did you see? Is he worth that, you know, is he that good to be in the conversation of, yeah, he might be the best wide receiver in this class, or is he overrated?

I definitely think you can have him in the conversation for the best receiver in the class. It's important to remember that like coming into this process, it was kind of, you know, before the combine and everything like that, it was widely regarded by a lot of, you know, what you would call like big draft, big media draft analysts that like he was the best wide receiver in the class and there was no discussion to be had about it.

But even before the Combine, which you mentioned, he really shanked it. Obviously, he had a good 40, but his jumps and everything like that, he tested out, I think, like, as a seventh percentile spark athlete. So, you know, before that, even though, just off reception perception perception, I didn't think it should be like a clear cut, you know, no way. I mean, absolutely he's the number one receiver in the class. I think he's really good. He wins as a route runner. I think perception, perception shows that really well. Good scores against zone, actually has the best score against zone coverage that I've ever charted.

over the last three draft classes. And it really solid marks against man coverage, too. And really across the route tree, other than just on the straight nine route, he has really good separation scores. So I think he's that classic, really refined route runner, which is going to be important because I think craft and technique is how he's going to have to win at the NFL level because he's not that supreme athlete maybe.

To me, I still think he's just a number two receiver, like a flanker that you play on the outside occasionally and move into the slot. I see him as a Greg Jennings type of player, but when I think about his career in the NFL, I think it's really going to be similar to like an Amari Cooper type of player. It's an easy comparison to make because they went to the same school. But what I mean by that is not that they play the same way, but that, you know, we're sitting here like year four right now with Amari Cooper kind of like, okay.

You know, what else? Like, when are we going to take the next step sort of thing? Because I don't know that he's proven to be a true number one receiver. But the good thing for Ridley is I don't think he's coming in with those expectations. So good player, but, you know, definitely not the clear cup number one. Maybe they don't take their step until they're age 24 since they're basically almost the same age. Yeah, right. Good good thing. Ridley is already coming in ahead of that. Yeah, I really liked Ridley. I did.

I see him more as like a Sterling Shepherd type comp to me in the sense that just a really good technician coming out, good hands, but I do like him. A wide receiver with the, at least the physical build of a number one, 63218, I'll take it. Unfortunately, the 454 is not that number one wide receiver speed that you're hoping for, but he's already kind of...

He's drawn some links to the Dallas Cowboys, but that's because they just cut their wide receiver and their core could use some help. But Cortland Sutton is allegedly being linked to the Dallas Cowboys. Would you like that fit, Matt, or, and just, and what are your overall thoughts about Mr. Sutton?

Yeah, Sutton is the most recent reception perception I put up on Friday. And he's a fascinating case because, you know, in this class, as I mentioned, I don't think there is a clear-cut true number one receiver. But you're right, Sutton kind of fits that physical mold of that player. But this is why I really like to do what I do with the reception perception is being able to go in and lay everything out.

If you look at his separation scores, he was below the 70th percentile against man in zone coverage, which that's fine. With a player with his size, I'm not too, like, that's not something I'm too surprised by. The biggest worry for me is that he really didn't show up well against press coverage. You didn't see many attempts against it at a lower level of competition, but just a 60% success rate.

that's really not what you're not what you're looking for you're looking for that to be a little bit better if you're going to be a true number one receiver and what i think that speaks to is not that sutton is a bad player but that he is going to need a lot of seasoning i think he is a player that might get off to like a slow start in his career unless he lands in a great spot because i think there just needs to be a little bit more marinating there i liken him to a player like demarius thomas who you know took a little while to get off the map not just

with injuries, but also because he's never been like a technically refined route runner. But what was great about him was that, you know, he had what I would call like a series of trump cards with just how physically gifted he is. And I think Sutton is that way too with the way he is after the catch with the way he can win 50-50 balls. If he gets a team that just much like Thomas says, hey, like we know you can't do everything well, but we're going to ask you to do the things that you really do well and just do that over and over and over again.

And I think that if he's, Sutton is the player that is probably the most landing spot dependent to me. Like I think we will feel drastically one way if Sutton lands with a team like Jacksonville at the end of the first round. But if he goes to a team like Green Bay in the first or second round, then I think we're obviously going to be really excited about him. And Dallas is kind of somewhere in the middle, I would say, between those two reactions. Like I don't know that I trust that coaching staff to.