RB Rankings: 11-20 + Never Not Working, Burnt Salmon - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/12

and league winning. And then I just think that they're going to use Daryl. I think they're going to use who's in McKinnon quite a bit, which is going to take away some of that passing game upside for Clyde. So only four touchdowns last year. He was the inverse of Antonio Gibson, but I think part of that is game plan and the way that they throw the ball around the in the red zone, hand the ball off to other players.

I'm in love with Clyde Edwards-Alaher. Yeah, baby. And this is coming from the guy who did not absolutely adore his college tape. I thought he was, you know, good, good pass catcher, a solid all-around guy, but he didn't have the explosive speed that I like, that, you know, the breakaway to become a superstar.

for fantasy, and we saw that a lot. I think that's what Andy's bringing up is the fact that, like, we saw enough to know, like, there were some limitations to his game, and I agree with that. However, here's why I am madly in love with Clyde Edwards-Alair this year. There's a couple of reasons. One, I mean, rookies take a leap in their second year. They just get, like I said, this is why I like Gibson, this is why I like Clyde Edwards-Alair. He's coming into his second year.

Also, there's a lot of studies done about the age of a rookie mattering for how they break out. And Clyde Edwards Aller is young. I mean, he is, he was, he played his entire rookie year at 21 years old. He is 22 this next year versus like Najee Harris, who we'll talk about in a minute. What's he going to be next year? Not as, not as old as Najee, the rookie is, is what he'll be next year. So, uh,

The fact that he is on Kansas City's offense with that first round draft capital going into year two at only 22 years old, there is no way that I think he gets worse for fantasy. Like I cannot see a path where they didn't invest at running back this offseason. They brought, you know, they re-signed a backup and they got someone.

cut from teams like that this is not there's no real true competition uh for touches here and just the natural progression of uh becoming a veteran i think he's going to have the highest floor of the of the players you draft here he often falls to the middle of the third round but you can get him almost always at that two three turn

And if you're someone that drafted Christian McCaffrey, and then you can have the safety of Clyde Edwards Aller, pair him with him, and I believe have that top 10 upside because, oh, yeah, you're in the best offense in the NFL. I just don't see, I feel like last year was such a disappointment on the hype that we are misguided in how low we're dropping CEH in our rankings. I don't think you mean we.

I mean the average. No, no, no, I'm talking about the ADP. The ADP is 14. You're at 12. Right. So I'm just saying he is often in the third round of fantasy drafts. That's what I'm saying. It's like I would happily draft him in the second round and I will ecstatically draft him in the third. I don't love seeing players get hurt multiple times at the end of the year going into the playoff run.

as reasons why the workload is going to increase. Do you think it's going to increase or do you think he's just going to be better? I think the workload will increase in the passing game because that's just the natural progression for a second year guy who's better at those attributes of pass blocking and knowing the system. Yeah, I think the workload does increase. You saw 54 targets and 13 games. That's really, that's solid. That is a solid target share for...

for a rookie running back. I just highlighted Clyde Edwards Allaire in the Ice and Fire show and just how unlucky he was when it came to getting a touchdowns. He got a touchdown every 43 touches instead of every 25 touches like the other running backs around him in volume. The opportunities are there. And interesting, you know, this is just now coming to me of like Jonathan Taylor.

Antonio Gibson, you know, the rookie running backs that really took off for fantasy, for both of them, it was the second half of the year that they started to shine. I mean, you had the weird training camp with all the COVID protocols. These guys really didn't have a full off season. And Clyde, like...

When he started to miss games, it was the second half. I mean, he missed week 13 with an illness, and then he missed the final two weeks because of the leg injury. So it's very possible that Clyde could have taken off there just like the other rookie running backs. And I think that him in the third round, if you go running back, running back, running back, and Clyde is that third guy. That's a sensational start to a draft. All right. Mike and Jason, all in on Clyde.

I have my concerns that they have a goal line and a pass catching back on the team. And so Clyde may dominate between the 20s. Najee is at 19 for me, 15 for Jason, 9 for Mike. Najee will have the workload in Pittsburgh. So I think he's going to be a very consistent running back. He's a first rounder. They're trying to, for the fifth consecutive year, establish the run in this offense and take some of the pressure off of Big Ben.

the offensive line is not good. I'm curious what your expectations are from an explosive standpoint for Najee. Do you think there'll be explosive plays or do you think it's going to be the kind of fantasy production we saw from James Connor, which was you weren't necessarily impressed with the, you know, per touch, but it was just so many touches. Yeah, it's the, I think a bit of both. I mean, Najee is an explosive athlete and he's a great pass catcher. So you could see.

You'll see some of those highlights throughout the year of like back when Kareem Hunt makes a true highlight play in the passing game. Naji has that ability, except he's a much larger man than Kareem Hunt. And the Steelers running backs last year, the offensive line was trash. I mean, that's an argument for this year. Like, oh, the line's bad. Well, it was bad last year. Big Ben is going to be bad this year. Well, people.

thought that Big Ben was bad last year. And the Pittsburgh Steelers running back was very solid for fantasy football. James Connor, before getting hurt, was putting up good weeks. Now, you didn't always know, like week one, I should say, when it ended up being Benny Snell as the primary guy because Connor got taken out of the game. But between James Connor and Benny Snell, the Pittsburgh running back only finished outside of the top 24 four times.

That is a very high level of consistency, and Najee is the guy. Back when Levi-on-Bell was the guy for the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24 opportunities a game. That's what I expect for Najee Harris. That's what the team is. Those cards have already been shown in the Hall of Fame game. The starters played into the second quarter, Najee Harris was getting every single snap at the running back position. First round draft capital, it just makes sense. So everything Jason was saying about,

Joe Mixon of even if Joe Mixon has some inefficiencies, the volume will overcome. And that's why I think that Najee Harris will easily finish as a, at least a top 15 running back. And I'm projecting him to finish as a running back one. It is an interesting argument to talk about him versus Joe Mixon because.

talent-wise, you know, I love Joe Mixing coming in and Najee. I love Najee. I'm much more hesitant on Najee because of the offensive line and because of some of those struggles. We obviously have not seen it in the NFL, but man alive did I love the college tape? But when I look at the difference in the offenses, do you like the Steelers or do you like the Bengals offense more for just total points scored this season?

I think I like the Pittsburgh defense a lot. Yeah, but which offense do you think scores more points? I guess Pittsburgh, but I don't think either of them are going to be prolific. Yeah, I mean, I think that they're fair comps. I think you're saying that there are a lot of parallels between Najee and Nixon. I just, I have no worry about Benny Snell. I have no worry about Anthony McFarlane. I have no worry about Jalen Samuels. So he's going to be out there for every play. And that, that's foundational, that's safe.

And when you look at ADP and outperforming ADP, you know, I talked about second and third round running backs. First rounders are almost 100% guaranteed to produce. I mean, over the last 10 years, they almost all outperform their ADP. So really strong argument there. And then if you want to transition that to mentally thinking about ETN producing where, you know, Jason likes ETN a lot. 15 and 16, we've got to move on Montgomery and Chris Carson.

I'm very high on David Montgomery. He's going to get all of the work in this offense. He showed me elite production over the back half of the year. 96% of running backs over the last 25 years with 250 touches and eight touchdowns, finishing the top 15. He's being drafted at 18. Nobody wants to take him. I don't know why. There's like a stench from rookie season that has permeated not as exciting for some reason. The bear's offense has a stench to it, so you compound those.

I think David Montgomery is...

has no chance to bust. I really don't think it's possible for David Montgomery to bust in this offense. It would be very difficult for him to bust considering how late he's going. He could disappoint and just return on the value. Like he's the running back 18. You drafted him to be the running back 18. Oh, darn, you missed out on running back X who exploded. Like that's why people aren't taking him is because they think there might be someone, you know, a sexier pick. But I would agree with you, Andy. Like the volume that will be there on an offense that is.

middle of the pack and it's probably better this year with their quarterback situation than they were last year when David Montgomery had for sure he also showed you that he can explode yeah yeah when you have when you have eight touchdowns in a I mean that's 12 13 14 15 60 six games that he exploded

Yeah, I mean, it's one of those things where you can make the argument of Tariq Cohen going down. So he became kind of the only guy in town. Maybe the passing volume was higher last year than you'll have this year. But he also showed the team. You can really count on me. We can have some better offense by getting me the ball this way and that way. So I think his upside isn't quite as high. Like if you're comparing him against Clyde Edwards-Layer,

I think both of them have a pretty darn safe floor. I do think the upside is questionable. I mean, obviously he showed last year he can finish high, but you wouldn't expect that to be something that happens for a mediocre offense over and over and over and over. And that, I think, is the stench as well as just the fact that you don't look at the bears as some prolific offense. I think that the 68 targets comes down for David Montgomery. I've come around a little bit, you know,

I've moved Montgomery up in my projections, and I'm actually, I'm above ADP now, which I had been right around the ADP range, most of the offseason. Yes, Tariq Cohen still injured, but Damien Williams is a good player. He is a good running back, and I think that was. He was. Yeah, he was a good running back. Maybe it's gone, but Damien Williams is.

does not have a lot of usage in the NFL and won't surprise me to see, you know, like Tariq Cohen when he was in his heyday, I mean, he was seeing six plus targets a game. Not projecting Damien will do that, but projecting that maybe David Montgomery isn't seeing five targets a game. Maybe that's down at three or so on an average by the end of the season. I hope not.

I mean, that'd be stupid of them. He was so good with those targets last year. If you remember the last game of the season, he was nine for nine. He had multiple games where he was getting a lot of targets. I hope they use him that way because Toree Cohen is 100% DUN. I mean, he is finished. I agree. But yeah, the Bears' offense questionable. Carson is a player that I'm starting to waver on. Chris Carson, I'm starting to, because I don't see a ceiling. We know what Chris Carson is and we know what this offense is going to do, but I don't think he has a ceiling.