Top 20 Countdown + Big Bear Value

I love Leonard Fornett. The worry that I've shared before is... Have he told him? I haven't. Hold on. Let me make a note. Call. Leonard. Oh. Mr. Fornett. Leonard, if I may. Lennie. Lennie. I really, really, really like you in 2018. Much has been said about your soft tissue issues, your ankles, whatever. But you're a beast. Your team is great. Your offensive line is better.

Your main backup last year is gone. I like hearing this from you. I feel like it was a slow acceptance of Leonard Fernett's value. Yes, certainly. I've not been, you know, the one leading the way on Fournett. But when I look at, you know, this, what we're doing here is all about probability. We're just trying to play the odds. And odds are always in the favor of volume. He's going to get the bulk of the production from the Jaguars who.

appear to be a good team. They have a good schedule again this season. I got a snake, man. Blake Bortles is opening things up. I mean, we're always saying, what wide receivers are going to be? Could it be Moncrief? Is Keel and Cole going to be involved? Is it going to be Marquise Lee? Is it going to be De Westbrook? No, it's going to be Lenny. It's going to be Leonard Fournette. So, you know, I, you know, in the, in the first few rounds, sure.

I know in our live event, we even talked about him being a higher probability of a bus, but that was due to injury. If he plays, you're never going to be unhappy with him in your lineup. You almost sound like you're tearing up there for a second. He just means so much to you. He just means so much. All right. Let's do our cooking by the book. Number 12, Dalvin Cook running back for the Minneapolis, as I call them. The Minneapolis Vikings.

Oh, goodness. You remember when they used to be the Phoenix Cardinals? Nope. Do you really not remember that? Nope. They weren't the Arizona Cardinals. Oh, you know. I thought you were saying, do you remember when the Minnesota Vikings were the Phoenix? Oh, no, no, because it never happened. They used to be called the Phoenix Cardinals. Yes, I remember that. Ironically, they played in Tim Pea. They didn't even play in Phoenix.

So they changed. They broadened it out. Now they're the Arizona Cardinals that play in the University of Phoenix Stadium that is in Glendale. Yeah, they got it all messed up. All right. They're changing them to the Southwest Region Cardinals. That's what they're going to adapt it to. So Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook, right now we have him at 12. He's 13 by ADP. He averaged 15 fantasy points per game. Was the running back nine when he got hurt. So Dalvin Cook is an investment in a talented.

running back, returning from injury on a great team. I have been all about Dalvin Cook this offseason because I'm a believer. I am truly a believer, but I thought when that started out, I was going to be so much higher than the consensus, and I thought he was going to be left for dead because he missed so much of the season to injury, and people wouldn't remember the start he got off to. And, you know, much to, well, I guess not much to my surprise, but to my surprise.

That hasn't happened. He's being drafted as the 10th running back off the board. Being drafted very high. And at that spot, I don't actually love him. Now, can he finish there? Am I projecting him up near there? Absolutely. But everyone in the – we're talking about the top 20. There's nobody here that we're going through that sucks, who's not good, who doesn't have the opportunity. So when I – and I know Mike and I differ on this, but when I'm in the early rounds, I usually draft risk adverse.

Because everyone's good. I'm just trying to avoid the landmines, not get the busts. And when I look at Dalvin Cook, there are some issues, right? One, he's coming back off of injury. I'm not too worried about that because of the length of time he's had to recover. Yeah, he returned to team drills in early June. He's feeling good. Lost the offensive coordinator. Can't find him.

Where did he come? Where is he? We're going to have to hire a new one. So they did. They hired a new one because they couldn't find their offensive coordinator. You have a healthy Latavius Murray, which you didn't have at the beginning of last season. We haven't seen them play together. So he might actually be taking the goal line work that Dalvin Cook had the opportunity for. He may be taking some early down work just to, you know, like one out of every three series just to ease Cook's workload.

Cooks reminds me a lot of Christian McCaffrey, where I am totally fine with where they're going, but there are changing pieces and flags that say the potential probability of something changing and going wrong from our good expectations are more evident. He's not safe enough for Brooks to draft is what you're saying. Like we know that Brooks likes nice and safe. Yeah. So Cooks McCaffrey.

They're the riskier items on the menu, so to speak. Yeah, and they could definitely reward, but here's the thing with cook. If Brooks would be like, I'll take a delving cook, but I'd like to remove the injury risk and add in a little third down guaranteed value. Yeah. Now, no Jerich McKinn. He'll still have the touchdown opportunities on the side. On the side. Can I get those on the side? I don't want to get rid of them because everyone will be angry. That's right. Brooks has learned to save face during our meals.

instead of just ordering the plainest thing possible, he orders something, takes everything off, puts it on the side. He's still getting it. Yeah. Still want to try it. But you never touch that stuff. You and I both know that. You like looking at it on the side. Here's the thing with Dalvin Cook. I don't think Dalvin Cook ends the year as like I think a very low probability of him being a top five running back. I don't think that the total offense is going to.

Need that. I don't think the goal line will be there. Now, can he be an RB1? Absolutely. I've got him pegged as an RB1. But the point is, at this position, you're kind of drafting him assuming that everything goes great. Well, if he's healthy, he's almost a guaranteed top 15. Right. But he's not. Yeah, I'm with you. Whereas Leonard Fournett, I could see Leonard Fournett at the end of the season having.

18, 19 touchdowns and being the the running back one. So you've got risk in both guys. Why not take the guy that has the higher ceiling? All right. Number 11. Julio Jones. All he's done since 2012 is finished in his healthy years. 11-8264 at the wide receiver position. In other words, that's where he's going to finish again, guys. Even last year in a season where Sarkesian tried to give him the ball in the red zone. He couldn't come down with it. Still finished.

Number four? Yeah. And yet, the worst number four you've ever had. For sure, the worst number four you've ever had. Five of his 16 weeks inside the top 17. Yeah, that's it. What? It's because when he was in, when he had his big monster games, they were 200 plus yards, multi-touch downs, monstrous games that won you a week, but he was very, very inconsistent. I am 100% willing.

to throw last year in the garbage when it comes to Julio Jones's consistency. His target volume, he is not, like Golden Tate is a guy where year after year after year after year, you have a near, you know, a 90 plus reception guy who every single year is super inconsistent. And you can't bank on him in most weeks. That's not who Julio is. Julio had this really up and down season last year.

And that was with a new coordinator, a new system, sometimes trying to force the issue to him. I think coming into year two of the system, I actually really like Julio Jones this season. I mean, he's a guy you've usually had to draft near the fifth pick in a draft. And I see him drop into the turn at the 12-201 turn. I love him there. Okay. Odell Beckham Jr. at number 10. I remember him. Pretty good. Six, five, four.

That's what 2014, 2015, 2016 looked like from a fantasy finish perspective for O'Dell Beckham Jr. We have him at 10. He's the 11th overall right now by average draft position. And he has at least 90 receptions and 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, not counting the injury destroyed year last year. So, his 16. He's pretty good. He's very good. You know, I mean.

Even his first two years, both years, he didn't play 16 games. His 16 game pace as a wide receiver is 107 receptions for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. There's a reason, despite the injury, he's ahead of Julio Jones and our rankings. You can't sleep on Odell Beckham. This is going to be one of the cheapest prices you get on Odell Beckham. Yes.

I mean, if he played healthy last year, there's no reason to believe he's going to be hurt or get hurt again. He had three full healthy seasons. This happens. I still have O'Dell Beckham ahead of D'Andre Hopkins this season. My worry and the worry that you can have in O'Dell Beckham is Eli Manning. Eli Manning is trended in the wrong direction in the last several years. And if the trend continues and Eli is done, then obviously that's going to be a very big hardship for O'Dell Beckham.

But it's not like he hasn't had the same Eli Manning we've seen over those seasons and produce those numbers we talked about. So Odell Beckham, and to be honest, I think that the overall offense is going to be better. And I think that helps. People are worried, oh, Sequan's going to take touches away. Now you've got, you know, Evan Ingraham to take touches away, targets away. O'Dell Beckham's getting his, period. All right. Hey, let's hit the pause button. Let's get into the mailbag. We'll count these down on the Thursday show and finish them out.

You want to answer some questions? Sure. Who's going to take this one? How about the people of Minneapolis? Oh, snap! Mailbag. That is awesome. Oh, Dallas. Dallas, two weeks. You got to bring it, Dallas. Go to ballerslive.com. Get your tickets now. You can get a combo ticket as well for the NFFC if you're going to be partaking in that. Dallas is a week from Friday? Yes, sir. Okay.

That's coming up. That's very soon. All right, let's jump into the mailbag. If you have a question, go to the website, the fancy footballers.com, click to submit a question button, or if you prefer, pick up your phone, dial our voicemail hotline 3024-64 TFFB. We're going to kick it off with a voicemail. Hey, ballers. So I recently joined a football league dynasty startup, and it's Super Flex League. So my question is, how does your drafting strategy change for Superflex and two four-back leagues? And when are you looking at drafting your first quarterback?

Thanks. You guys are awesome. Yeah, we talk so much about late-round quarterbacks that this question comes up a lot. People want to know how do you adjust your strategy when you have two quarterbacks? I mean, because any Super Flex League, you're starting two quarterbacks 99% of the time. And it...

affects the strategy completely. It affects the strategy in one way, and that is what you need at the end of your draft. But it does not affect the strategy as far as draft strategy because it's still tier based. You're still drafting tier base. And like you said, Andy, if you've got the UDK, you've got our tiered rankings, we've got a tutorial now for how to utilize that. But the change that happens is usually I only want one quarterback, period, and I'm planning to stream them. In a two-quarterback league, I want three.

quarterback so i've got to plan ahead and make sure that by the end of the draft uh you know you you have to watch when and the reason you want that is because they're all going to get drafted they're all super flex league you need to be able to have the flexibility to stream between your your your

three pack as opposed to using the waiver wire to stream because they're all going to be drafted. And I normally try to get one good one in the top three rounds. Yeah, you can do that. You can do the try to get one of those great guys. I mean, if Aaron Rogers dropped to the end of the first in a multi-quarterback super flex type league, that's okay to take him there. I am still probably waiting several rounds. The reason I want three specifically is because I'm drafting them later. So like James Winston would be a great

third drafted player in a normal Superflex league because he's going to go late since he's missing those first three weeks. You can get him at a great value. And you could pair him with a Kirk Cousins and a whoever. Matthew Stafford. Yeah. Someone really late that I like as well and this will gross you out. But Ryan Tannahill is, I mean, they're all going to get drafted. And this is a guy you can get super late.

He's basically the last one drafted, and I think his value, or Eli Manning as well. Yes. Those are guys you can get very, very late. Now, in a dynasty, it's different. James won't go as late because he's still young. But yeah, I mean, you want, you want, I would try to get three if you can, but it's still tier based. Don't overemphasize.