Top 20 Countdown + Big Bear Value

Tyrell Williams. So, no, Alan is bona fide solid. The only argument that people can make against him is the possibility that he gets hurt. That's it. And you can make that argument against anybody. Including Christian McCaffrey, who comes in it. Oh, Christian McCaffrey could get hurt. Number 17. That was not the voice of public opinion. No, that was. That was Sam Bradford from last year. That was the, I don't want to learn your plate buck. That's right. Christian, you recognize him. McCaffrey, he's 1780P overall. 17 on R.

list of the top 20 led all running backs with 113 targets in 2017. That was 22.6% of the team's targets. Question number one for you, Jason, as he finished the 11th best running back last year in PPR leagues. Question for you, do you believe that the return of Greg Olson and the selection of DJ Moore will impact that target share percentage? Do you think that Christian McCaffrey will come back, you think after one year?

We'll be looking at 22.6% of the team's targets. No, I don't think so. He was clearly a beneficiary of a lack of other legitimate targets. Now, that is not to say that I think he's going to go down to 70 targets. He's going to be around that 100 target number. But 22% of the targets for a team coming from a running back is not...

You know, that's not the norm. You know, that's reserved for wide receivers. Greg Olson has always been his number one target. Didn't have them for half the year. There are some, like I'm all in on Christian McCaffrey, but we need to pump the brakes a little bit and just recognize that there are some red flags. Okay. Christian McCaffrey, you know, he was not the most efficient runner last season. But in addition to that, you know, there was a lot of hype when Jonathan Stewart was gone.

But, you know, and that shot him up the rankings. But then they signed C.J. Anderson. And it did nothing to dissuade the average draft position of McCaffrey. And C.J. Anderson is, you know, every bit, he's a far better player today than Jonathan Stewart was last year, in my opinion. And you have a different offensive coordinator. And like you said, DJ Moore, Greg Olson. There's a lot of, I feel like Christian McCaffrey right now is being drafted.

where he's okay to be drafted there, but the risk is higher than it seems. I don't feel very concerned about him just because he is that kind of jack of all trades type of player. Last year, Carolina, for perspective, was the 12th best team in the NFL by way of points per game, 19th in yards. I think if you put those weapons back on the team, you're seeing them more often in the red zone, more opportunities to score. Look, every time that Cam Newton takes a snap in the red zone,

You have the threat of handing that ball off to McCaffrey, of screen passes to McCaffrey, you have Funches, DJ Moore, and then obviously Newton can run. I think that, look, I'm a big Carolina fan this year. I've already talked about Cam Newton before. It's very likely he's going to repeat as a my guy candidate for me because I think he's the perfect combination of that draft value and top in talent. And McCaffrey's going to be the primary weapon. You can't bring DJ Moore into making the primary weapon right out of the gate. So I have more confidence. I don't think he's as risky as you think he is.

But obviously we all have him very high at 17. Now 16, hard to say there's not more risk in a guy that hasn't done it yet. But Jerich McKinnon, running back for the San Francisco 49ers, comes in at 16. His average draft position right now is 21 when you look at drafts taking place. So we have them quite a bit higher, five spots higher than the consensus. This is all about prognostication. I mean, we are moving into a brand new offense for Derek McKinnon under Kyle Shanahan.

And we are basically saying, look, they spent the money and, you know, we have confidence of Kyle Shanahan to make McKinnon valuable enough to be drafted 16 overall. Well, and in addition to those things, it's also about what they didn't do. They had ample opportunity to draft another running back, to bring in another free agent running back.

They are putting their confidence in Jerich McKinnon. And, you know, look, Derek McKinnon hasn't done it before. But you've seen spurts of him doing it. He finished, you know, the running back 22 last year when he wasn't, I mean, he clearly at the beginning of the season, it was the Dalvin Cook show. When he was given the opportunity, he actually succeeded with it, which was a surprise to me. I've never been a huge McKinnon truther. But you can't argue his athleticism.

I mean, he's a 90 plus percentile athlete. He's a freak. And when Kyle Shanahan goes out and picks a guy who is really good at pass catching, here's the one thing you do know with him is that he's game flow, you know, safe. If they're up, he's going to be the guy that they're using. If they're down, he's going to be the guy they're using. You're hoping that you're getting a Devonta Freeman, you know, from the Falcons, that type of well-rounded type of player, obviously very different body style between those two guys.

But I think with the pass catching, with the athleticism, the only risk here is injury. We talked about it with Keenan Allen. I mean, can you see him staying healthy and just flat disappointing, just being a – you know, think of – No, I don't think so. I think – Isaiah Crowell last year. Right. No, it's possible. I mean, but last year what we saw was almost a leveling up of Jerich McKinnon. He has always been that spark score guy. If you look at his elusive rating, which is that – I think PFF came up with that, right?

miss tackles forced by a running back, trying to distill those numbers down. Pre-2017, his elusive rating was 39.7. Last year, it was 51. So you saw a more elusive Jerick McKinnon. I think that's what Kyle Shanahan saw. I think that's why you had a four-year, $30 million contract going his way. And so they are putting all of their eggs in that basket. So for me, if Kyle Shanahan, an offensive mine, puts all the eggs in the basket of Jerich McKinnon, I'm willing to put a lot of mine in there.

Yeah, I mean, Carlos Hyde was the running back nine last year for the, for the 49. I lied to you, by the way. Do you know who number 15 is on our list? Oh, no. LaShawn McCoy. Oh, come on. You thought you knocked him out of the top 25? Ah, one can dream. Oh, no. The reality is... We have him at 15. The consensus out there has him at 22. So despite you, Mike and I have pulled Shady up into the ranking.

Well, the reality is, even with LaShawn McCoy, you know, I'm projecting health, right? Like we don't, there's very rare cases when we stack guys out, Jordan Reed being one, Tyler Eifert being one, where I go, I'm not going to give them 16 games in my, you know, statting them out for the season. With LaShawn McCoy, I did. I gave him 16 games. Well, you should.

He's just because he limps off the field doesn't mean he's not reliable. I would agree with that. I mean, look, you can't argue with the guy who's done it year in and year out over and over and over. Yeah. I mean, he's 16, 16, 12, 15, 16 in the last five years. There's no way if he stays healthy that he doesn't get 315 touches. The reason that I'm so against Lashon McCoy is obviously not volume. It's all the arguments I've made in the past. No, look, stuffed 80 times last year.

And loses offensive linemen. No, I get it. Lowest yards per carry of his career last season. And I just don't see how the Buffalo bill's offense. Can you picture a situation where they score? Just at all? Like, no, I think I think that's the problem, though. And we talked about this previously. Nobody can visualize what happens there. Kelvin Benjamin's ADP is low. We don't know who the quarterback is. Tyrod's gone. You have.

injuries, you have missing offensive alignment, and yet this was a playoff team where I have some confidence in the coaching staff to figure it out. I think we don't see the picture now. Right now, the glasses are foggy, and no matter how much you wipe them, you can't find a touchdown anywhere.

Yeah, I mean, I... You have to agree with that part. I 100% agree with that. But you just assume that the glasses are never getting clear, and I'm thinking they might get clear. I mean, he'll have some good games. I'm not opposed to drafting him, but if he gets off to a hot start, I'm 100% trading him. I just think that the team is, you know, in the top 21 last year. This has been one of our tips before is, you know, running backs on good teams. You'd rather have the running back on a good team. Now, it's helpful that he's a good, a great pass catcher. I'll remind you there a playoff team.

Oh, come on. Well, they're not... One of the only playoff teams with a negative point difference. Yes, they were a playoff team. They are not a playoff team. What, do you need to put on the... Do you need to put on the... I mean, if he's 15... No, I would never... You hold enough. Yeah, I would never take about 15 here. 14. Kareem Hunt on our top 20 countdown. Average opposition is 10 overall. We're a little lower on Kareem Hunt. He had the highest percentage of running back attempts for...

Any team in football last year with 86%. That is the alarm bell, regardless of how good you are. That is the alarm bell of regression. Yes, for sure. There's a lot of flags here. You and I, Andy, have them basically as the last RB1. I've got him 12. You've got him 13. Mike is pushing him up here. Mike's got him still at number six. And I will say this in Mike's defense. When you watch the tape last year.

Kareem Hunt was incredibly hard to take down. He bounced off that first tackle. He had balance. He had vision. He can catch the ball. I don't have any doubts. No doubts, no hesitation, no reservation on the talent of Kareem Hunt. You add him to the fact that he's an Andy Reid led team who usually has a very productive running back for fantasy. And there's no reason to think, okay, maybe he regresses a little bit, but that he's going to be bad.

Right? Last season, I don't think he's going to be bad. No. And the argument is there's no way he has the snap percentage, the touch percentage of running back totals this season. That wasn't what the chiefs were planning to do. They were planning on having, I mean, I was ready before the season right before the injury to say, look, Spencer Ware is a huge value in this draft. And then as soon as he went down, I pumped Kareem like crazy. But now they went out.

They've got Spencer Ware hopefully coming back. They signed Damien Williams. They signed Kerwin Williams. This is a team that's showing with their money that what happened last year while it worked out is not what they are trying to replicate. Yeah, not to the 86% tile. And I will adjust my Kareem Hunt based on the health of Spencer Ware. In fantasy, you don't need to make a declaration on July 2nd of exactly what Kareem Hunt's going to be. You can wait and see. I mean, that's what you have to do. Right now.

I have to imagine that percentage comes down. Right now, I think that the big plays probably come down a little bit, and you got Pat Mahomes back there with some uncertainty. That doesn't mean he's not great. It just means he might not. I don't think he's worthy of being the 10th overall pick. Here's a question for you, Andy. Ooh, I like questions. Does Kansas City score more or less points this coming season as an offense?

More touchdowns or less touchdowns? We'll say that way. Probably. The defense is going to be a little worse. No, I think probably less. Last year they were sixth overall. So do I. I mean, last year you had a career year from Alex Smith, a veteran quarterback, knowing the system, playing out of this world. Yeah. I just don't see where Kansas City is at where they were last year offensively with a new, for all intents of purposes, rookie. Even if Pat Mahomes great.

I feel like the offense will take a slight step back. Los Angeles. The Chargers are better. Denver's going to be better. Shout out to San Diego. I just got back. Yeah. You had a little trip. I had a little trip. Got yourself toasted? Got my sunburn on. Oh, my gosh. You know those things where you know on paper. Right. Like I know that when the sun is blocked by clouds, you can still get a sunburn. I've heard that before.

But when you're out there and it's cool and the sun's not out, you just don't put on the sunblock. And then later you go, yeah. We had the sunblock with us. My bad. Of all the things I've ever heard from that, that has to be the biggest mistake that happens by the most amount of people is the sunburn. Everybody I know, they're like. We all know the sun can burn us. Right. But we just. And we've all had sunburns. Yeah. So, you know, put the two together.

Number 13, Leonard Fernette. Right now he's the 12th overall by ADP. We have him at 13, one of only six running backs with over 300 touches. And it was a, look, when he played, he was generally a top 15 guy. He missed a couple games, week seven, week nine, had the biweek in between. So you didn't have, and then when he came back, barely played, 42nd rank running back in week 10. So you had a, you know, we talk about Cream Hunt's dead in middle of the season.

We ignore a little bit of Fournettes because he fully missed those games and we don't really hold it against him. You didn't plug him into the lineup and get, you know. No, but reliability is something you do have to hold against him a little bit. The Jags invested in Andrew Norwell, one of the steals of the offseason offensive guard, one of the best in the league leaving Carolina. So Fournette, I mean, I think we all think he's solid and I think we all have the opinion of, I don't know, he's basically a 300-touched guy on a better team than Shady is.