Early Breakouts & Busts - LIVE in Chicago

Yes, maybe, maybe the touchdowns regress. They probably won't. I'm going to go on year number two, 10 receiving touchdowns for Mike Williams, opportunities to grow in the offense, opportunities with a great quarterback. You don't have variables in that offense. We talk all about the Los Angeles Chargers, one of the easiest to predict offenses because not as many moving parts. Mike Williams is going to have so many more opportunities. And I think the volume targets, trust of the quarterback, another year.

70 catches, 10 touchdowns. I guess if you're saying 70 catches 10 touchdowns, that could be considered to break up. My issue, though, with Mike Williams, is the fact that, you know, the two examples you brought up, Des, Mike Evans, they became the clear cut number one on their team. And that's not happening unless Keenan Allen gets injured. Keenan Allen is the one. And I don't think Philip Rivers is the type of quarterback that's going to support two top...

15 type quarter wide receivers. So I'm less bullish on Mike Williams than you are. For me, it's, I don't, I'm on board. I think Mike Williams absolutely can. For me, he's not, Mike, I'm not doing the banging the table for Mike Williams. And for me, it's more a matter of Hunter Henry. Right. Where, where that, the variable as you talked about, he is the one. He's the one variable that wasn't there for Mike Williams 10 touchdowns.

What if Hunter Henry took four of those? Then nobody really cares what Mike Williams did last year. Then Mike Williams would have six. Your math is accurate, Jason. You did it. All right, you want to talk, bus? Yes. Us. Oh, I'm excited to hear. Now, look, when we're in the studio, when we're in the studio, we're recording the show, it's the three of us, we're on the microphones. We got Judge Giamati, who's in the back holding down the recording. Give it up for the judge.

Come wave. Come here. Come here. Come say hello. The judge is getting some face time. There he is. Now go away. Go away. Thank you, Judge Giamati. Get back in the dungeon. And Al Borland is also, he's also in, holding things down. He's not as known as the judge yet, but we'll get there. But when we play the drops, you guys don't cheer like that. What's up with that? Yeah, I don't know. I don't know.

It frankly is bringing down my confidence. You're talking about Jason and I? Yes. Yeah, we've grown used to it. Okay. You got to do something special, some different. I just, Mike, step it up. Yeah. My bad. All right, well, look. Are you kicking it off? Yeah, I mean, if we're going in order, it's been a while since I got to talk a lot. I love talking. All right. So I'm going to go, look, I know last year, last year it didn't go so well with my beginning of the end for the Patriots. Not as well as you would have come. Not as well as I did.

Not every beginning begins with a Super Bowl championship. Right. The beginning of every end is a... Now hold up. Jason, can you call for the end of the Cardinals, please? Yes. Now, wait. It's over. In fairness, in fairness, my... I can't only hear this. Yes, let me justify how this was a good call. My comment was that... Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. You're going to justify it was a good call? Yes! Yes, you want to hear how? Oh, I would love it.

Because people were drafting Chris Hogan and Tom Brady and Rob Grankowski and Sony Michelle and all these players. And they all, if you got them in draft season, they all disappointed. So that's how I justify. Victory lap. Victory lap. All right. But I'm going back to the well a little bit here. My bus this year is Sony Michelle. Sony Michelle is... All his dynasty owners. Disappointed. And this is not...

Look, the injury is a worry, right? But this is not based on the injury. This is not, this is, let's say he plays 16 games, I believe Sony Michelle will be a bust. But then you also have injury risk, the fact that he just got his knee scoped again. He was... I got a knee scope last week. It's fine. You're running great, Mike. Thank you. Yeah. Faster than we think. So here, look.

The hype on Sony Michelle, the hype on Sony Michelle's real, and for Just Cause, he had some great numbers last week. From week four on, or last year, from going, just keep going. From week four on with Sony Michelle, when he wasn't injured, which he missed a couple games on there, he was on a 16-game pace.

of 269 carries for 1,232 yards and 9 touchdowns. That sounds great. Now he's coming in a year two. They're going to need to rely on the run. A lot of people are saying, no, Sony Michelle is a breakout candidate this year. If he plays, he's going to be great. They watch the playoffs. I mean, that's part of it. Absolutely. He dominated in the playoffs. You can see how people like Sonny Michelle. But in the last five seasons, if you look at the top...

50 running back performances and half PPR. There's only been two times that a player has had fewer than 25 receptions. The top 50 performances at running back. There's only been two times that a player has had fewer than 25 receptions. Now, Sony Michelle, on his 16-game pace, like giving him all the games was on pace for seven. So there's like a few, that's less than 25 is what I'm saying. Thank you. It was LaGarrett Blunt.

in 2016 for the Patriots. Wait, what team? That's the point is people are saying, okay, he's going to be the Ligaritt Blunt, the 2016 Ligargett where he had 18 touchdowns. Success colors the love of Sonny Michelle, the possibility of high, you know, mid-double-digit touchdowns. That's what's in people's minds. But you love Damien Harris. You love some of the other pieces. There are two main reasons why I think he's going to be a bust. The first is this. It's receptions. He's not in that role. James White.

Damien Harris, they're going to come in and... Rex Berke. We saw this with how they used LaGarrett Blunt, and we saw this with how they used Sony Michelle. He's not a receiving back. And historically speaking, what you have to have in touchdown volume is enormous if you're going to be a top 12 running back and you're not going to catch the ball. It has to be that LaGarra Blunt 18 touchdown season. The Michael Turner 17 touchdown season, that's what you have to have and you're not going to get it. But here's the other side.

It's not just the receptions. It's Damien Harris. Look, they spent a first round pick last year on Sony. I get it. But then the very next year, when Sony's dealing with knee issues, they go out and on day two draft Damien Harris, who right now is the starter in camp because Sony and Michelle's not there. And everybody's saying, wow, he's really good.

Look at what Sony and Michelle did in the games that Rex Burkhead was on the field and the games when he wasn't. When he was not on the field, he was averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game. That's great. When Rex Burkhead played, almost half, down to 7.6 fantasy points per game. And why? Touchdowns. Rex Burkhead came in and sometimes he would vulture the touchdown. Sony wouldn't get it. Damien Harris.

is not going to allow Sony Michelle to be at 12 or 14 or plus touchdowns. It's just not happening. So if he's not catching the ball and he's not up in the double-digit touchdowns, then it's not happening. I certainly think that, and Chicago fans have witnessed the Jordan Howard reception experiments, right? How that? Not good? They don't like him anymore. He's gone. I know. I know. And I agree. I think Sony Michelle is never going to be a pass catcher.

The only point of disagreement that I will have is when you saw the workload that he handled in the playoffs and you contest that Damien Harris is automatically not going to let him have those. Damien Harris has to earn his spot in a starting rotation. Something that... No, he doesn't. No, he does not. He doesn't have to earn it when he's drafted in the second round. He's earned it by their draft capital. That's my belief. Well, I think you're wrong. We'll see. And the thing is, I think you're...

Especially wrong. Oh, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold up, hold up. Oh, hold up. Are we making a, what's the water bet here? I don't know yet. Mike, let's say this. Okay, so he's calling for a bus. No, it's easy. I'll look at ADP. Sony Michelle's going in the fourth round, eighth pick. By the way, it's been dropping over the last month. Yes, because of the knee scope. I will set the bar at RB20.

Are you willing to go? I'm all about it. Let's go with Jason. Are you willing to go RB? Where is he being drafted right now? Because I think he's going above that, but I am still fine with that. You want to go over there? Sure, but I also want to know where he's being drafted. He's at 409. I don't have the position right in front of me. Okay, do you hit the button. Waterbed. I'll tell you. If you want it on it. Yeah, he's the, he's right there. He's the 21st running back in standard, which is where he lives.

In a standardly? It's 24th and a half. Yeah. You're going to lose. All right. He doesn't. When the Patriots lose, which is historically not often. Every other year. But when in games when they lose, Sony Michelle's production and fantasy value absolutely evaporates. I just think it's hard. A rookie season that was plagued by injuries, you didn't get to see it very much. I think you can go and project his rookie season based on the regular season.

Not look at the playoffs, not look at what he did. He was a first round draft capital guy too. But what happened in the playoffs? He was great. But were they winning or were they losing? Yes, they were winning. That's the entire year. So you're already here first, the beginning of the end, Mike believes the Patriots are going to lose this year. Sure. Now, here's a thing. If they start losing this year, then the beginning was last year.

I have no doubt that we will hear that throughout the season. Mike, it's your turn. All right, so. Get a bust at your bust. That's a weird thing to say. All right. So, season long fantasy, the relationship that I want to talk about right now, it's like a road trip. It's not always the destination, but the journey needs to be fun.

exciting as well i just watched the movie a goofy movie with my children and i was that's where i thank you i i can i can tell you from being around mike for the going on 10 plus years really really likes the goofy movie and i can tell you that me and the crowd see i to eye look a road and the reason i thought about it's i'm watching this

Max and his dad Goofy. They go on a road trip, and it is awesome. They're stopping. They're jet skiing on the ocean. They're going to monster truck. Rallies, they're going to amusement park. They were enjoying the ride. That's what I want to do with the people that I draft early at the top of my fantasy football tracks. Every step of the way, the whole season, the whole road trip. You want to enjoy yourself. Exactly. And that's why.

The guys who are going in the top 10 at the wide receiver position on fantasy football calculated, they only had poor games based on expectation on 34% of their games. That means that on average... You are happy more often than not. On average, the top 10, there were only a wide receiver 3 or worse, 34% in time. That's sensational. That's a player I plug him in. I don't worry about anything. I'm having a great time. In fact, these other players that are going...

10 spots behind the player I'm going to talk about, they were also very fun. They only were a wide receiver 3 or worse on 44% in the game. So they're well above. You take them along with you? Yeah. I mean, over half the time, we're having a great time. Having a good time. Sorry? Oh, why'd you stop it, man? Having a good time! Thank you.

So I think we can all agree that when we take a wide receiver 1 or a wide receiver 2, we want to know that in over 50% of the games, we are going to enjoy the ride. They are going to produce. Well, this player who is being drafted as a wide receiver 1, he is being drafted as the wide receiver 12. In 2016, this player was a wide receiver 3 or worse and 56% of his games the next year. That number increased to 71% of his games.

Last year, 66% of his games, he was a wide receiver 3 or worse, that you're talking about, that's a road trip where I'm on with my wife, my three kids, my dog, I drive 15 hours straight, and I'm looking for a ravine because I want to take my car off of the ledge. I'm not having fun on that road trip. I got where I needed to go. Sure. But I wasn't having fun. That wide receiver...

plays for the Dallas Cowboys, and his name is Amari Cooper. Yeah, you're back. You're back so soon, Voice of Public Appeal. He knows about regression now, Mike. Watch out. Yeah, Mike, I'm a lot smarter now, and I know that once he became a cowboy. Well, here's the thing. Remember when I said in 2018, he was a wide receiver 3 or worse over the season in 66% of his games? Yeah. In the nine games for Dallas.