Early Breakouts & Busts - LIVE in Chicago

That you love Dante Pettis. Because I felt like for a couple, the couple weeks after Debo was drafted and Jalen Hurd was drafted, it was clouding your vision. But you've come around. That was the glaucom. Look, talent wins when you've got a great offensive coordinator and the opportunity. He is the clear wide receiver one for the team.

So if he's the wide receiver one for Kyle Shanahan's system with Jimmy Garoppolo coming back, taking a year two leap, and if you listen to what people are saying about his camp this year, they're raving. Everybody is raving. You've got Kyle Shanahan saying, look, he didn't come back in the off season just to get healthy. He came to get better, and you could see that in his body. And you want to talk body? You want to talk a little bit of handsomeness? Oh. Let's listen.

to what Jimmy Garapolo, the handsome one himself, says about Dante Petit. They love handsome things. They love handsome things. Big fan of handsome things. This is why they love me. Here's what Jimmy Carapolo said. Look, brace yourselves. He says Dante's body is maturing. Oh, gross. He says he's coming out of breaks with power.

He has speed. It doesn't look like he's moving very fast, but he is. It's a weird thing. That's a compliment? No, no, no. Listen, yes, it is a huge compliment. Think about... That's what people say about me. He doesn't look like he's going very fast. But that's the end of the same. That's what you say about yourself. I don't look like I'm going fast. But I am. But I am. Trust me. Check this is 40 out. It's like Aryan Foster. Right? You remember he was like he was just jogging and it's like he's...

10 yards away from people. So this is what he said. He said, you know, it doesn't look like he's running really fast, but he is. It's a weird thing for a quarterback to get used to. He's different than most guys running. It's hard to describe unless you're seeing it, but you're trying to throw... You just have to believe. No, no, no. Listen, this is Jimmy Garoppolo talking, not me.

It's a trustworthy source. This is his quarterback. What source do you want to know more about than the only player who could get him the ball? I'm 100% on board on Dante Pettis. I went out and acquired him in our dynasty. Except for the body mature part. That part is... It didn't go well over here. I need to see it to believe it. Mike, his body is maturing. Believe it. Has he gotten the talk? Yes. I talk to him. Things are changing. I want to hear... Because me and you are on the same... We're in the same camp with Dante and his maturing body. Now, Mike...

I want to hear how it goes wrong. What could go wrong for Dante Pettis next year? I tried to make him my breakout player. And then I found out that Jason was doing. So nothing can go wrong. We're all on board with Dante Pettis, especially because the only thing that can go wrong for Dante Pettis is that Jason is in fact correct with his hypothetical power of the fantasy football industry. And Dante Pettis starts rising up until like the fifth round.

in drafts because people start getting itchy tringer figures when they're drafting. So I need more of a secret podcast. Yes. Okay. Don't tell anybody. Don't tell anybody. If you're in a draft. Yeah. Don't draft them if it's a mock. So, Mike, it's your turn. Your breakout. Oh, yes. Because mine's another whiteout, so I want to go to yours. I kind of wish I had the sunglasses because I know what's going to be said. But I don't need them. Somebody have a pair. Because I welcome the hate. I welcome it. This year's breakout for me.

quarterback, the first overall pick in this year's draft selected by the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray will be a breakout at the quarterback position. Yes, he will. Sounds good to me. I'm on board. Jason's body is maturing right now. This is what I want to point out about Kyler Murray. This is where we're going to start. Rich Rebar.

dubbed it the Konami code, which is very eloquent because, as Jason and I, we are very opposed to it. Quarterback rushing in fantasy football is broken, in our opinion. So stupid. But here we are. Cheek code. Every 10 yards, they run, they get a point as opposed to the 25 passing yards. So just the fact that he is a rushing quarterback is a huge deal. I want to highlight.

some rushing quarterbacks. And these guys, these are quarterbacks who were selected very high in the draft to bad teams, but because they are running quarterbacks, huge things happen for them, their rookie season. Cam Newton, 14. Oh, man, I got that. Oh, yeah. Oh, so basie. Almost 1,500 rushing yards his last year at Auburn.

He was the first overall pick. Where did he finish? Oh, quarterback three. On the heels of over seven. Yeah, he's just Cam Newton. Just one case. Over 700 rushing yards for him that season helped elevate him. RG3, Robert Griffin, had almost 700 rushing yards his final year, which, by the way, he had 843 as a freshman quarterback. Second overall pick. Oh, 815 rushing yards, quarterback five on the season. What's happening here? Vince Young, he burned bright.

And in fairness, he was not very good. In all fairness, you are correct. But it doesn't matter. Nobody booed that. Because in college, his final season, in college, over 1,000 rushing yards, he came in, the quarterback nine on the heels of over 550 rushing yards. Lamar Jackson, last year, over 1,600 yards. It's a little bit more difficult because he didn't come in until halfway through the season. But in that time...

He was the quarterback eight in the seven games when he started because he had over 550 yards. Should I keep going with this? Because Josh Allen, Colin Kaepernick, who was, he wasn't her first rounder, but still came in. And his first year as a full-time starter was an absolute fantasy stud. Kyler Murray's last year in college, really his only year as a starter. What did he have? Oh, over 1,000 yards rushing. It's just the baseline that...

that you come in. Did you not hear the other quarterbacks who I was talking about? They went to college too. Look, quarterbacks who rush for high production as a quarterback in college, it translates very well into the NFL. And you know what? Oh, weird. He does this thing that's called throwing the ball as well. And Cliff Kingsbury, new head coach, he's bringing in the air raid system.

They have restocked the Arizona Cardinals at the wide receiver position on very high draft capital picks. Christian Kirk last year in the second. Andy Isabella this year in the second, Hakeem Butler, who draft Twitter and many of us. Thank you very much. We loved him. His body already matured. He slipped all the way to the fourth round, and don't overlook the pick of Keishon Johnson in the sixth round. He was an absolute production stud.

Here are some numbers, some very interesting numbers for Kyla Murray last year, according to PFF. His adjusted completion percentage, he ranked as the number two quarterback in the country. His adjusted completion percentage versus pressure. The number one, adjusted versus the blitz. Number two, his deep pass adjusted completion percentage number seven. Average depth of target number eight. So he wasn't just... Not just thinking and Duncan. He's not throwing little dumpoffs to Paris Campbell. He is absolutely going deep.

You combine the fact that rushing production translate, and Kyler Murray is an absolute freak athlete with the fact that he can throw the ball. And his numbers, we were all very, very excited for Baker Mayfield last year. His passing numbers are better. They are better than Baker Mayfield's last college year. Kyler Murray, it doesn't matter if he's on a bad team because he's going to break out.

I fully support applauding that as a Cardinal fan, by the way. How confident, though, let's put this to a test. He's a ninth round draft pick. Sure. Do you want him there? Are you confident making him... You spend a ninth. Yes, I would gladly take him in the ninth. Make him your starter? Yeah, because I... Week one? Because I am extremely confident that by the end of the season, Kyle Murray will be a quarterback one, and he had... Oh, there we go. My man in the front.

And then there's the upside of just, what if he's, what if he rushes like Cam Newton, except doesn't throw the ball like Cam Newton? And throws like Baker.

He actually throws like Baker. I mean, you Frankenstein that into one quarterback, and that is outrageous production. Here's one thing that we can say, and this is genuine. Like, because we are in Arizona, we make no qualms about, oh, we're impartial. No, we are Arizona Cardinals fans. Which is super embarrassing to say after last year. Right, super embarrassing. I'm not proud of this. This is just a fact. I share facts that I'm not proud of all the time.

But the reality is we don't want to put ourselves out there because of getting the homer thing. But we also get the information. Like, for instance, last year, Josh Rosen, trade it up to the number 10 pick to get him. And the buzz... That was a groan. That was the saddest groan I've ever heard in my life. That was the echo of me on draft day when they took him. The buzz of Arizona beat reporters on Josh Rosen last year was non-existent.

Nobody ever came out and said, man, he looks great in camp. I mean, it was Sam Bradford's the starter, and maybe we'll see. You know, just there was nothing. This year it's totally different. The players, the coaches, they're all saying there's something different about this guy. He's special. He's different. But they're saying it like this. They'll go, please. But I agree. Who are they comping?

Who are the comp in Kyla Murray's throwing to? The most common comp pre-draft was Russell Wilson, but right now everybody's been calming it to Pat Mahomes. Yeah! You heard it here first? 50 touchdowns for Kyler. Buy the UDK, that's what you'll see. I do think it's hard for people to buy the transformation when you go from being so bad on offense. 14 points a game was like six points worse than the second worst team in the NFL. We call that a Mike McCoy.

Oh, gross. But that was the whole point of me pointing of these quarterbacks were high draft capital guys. Don't ignore them. They were like bad teams. Cam Newton was drafted number one, meaning they were the worst team the year prior. All right, we have bust on the way. I got to get my breakout in. I said when I grew up, I wanted to be Mike Jordan. Wanted to be like Mike. I want to bring another Mike to the table. I don't want to be like you. You should. I'm bringing Mike Williams. Mike Williams last season.

He's such an interesting case. Now, I'm so used to this Sammy Watkins lover over here, repeatedly say the same refrain about draft capital. How many years will Sammy Watkins' life be saved by his draft capital? At least three more. I at least get to say it about Mike Williams. Last year, breakout, 10 touchdowns receiving another one on the ground. How did he find fantasy value last year? Touchdowns.

It was just touchdowns. That was it. In fact, hyper crazy, weirdly, better than ever efficiency. 43 total receptions on the season. 43? 43? It's 10 touchdowns. Matt O'Cotta brought this up. He has a beast. I agree. He brought this up. He is just the second player ever to have a season of 10 plus touchdowns on fewer than 70 targets in history. But Andy,

That sounds like regression is coming. That doesn't sound like a good stat. Hold on, wait. The vote was aware of regression? But look, I just got to call it out. Super fluent now. He's been listening for years. You guys are great. Yes, I understand touchdown regression, touchdown predictability. We talked about it at the top of the show. Very difficult to repeat at that position. You know what makes it easier when you're 6-4-218? It makes it easier when you only had 66 total targets last year.

Tyrell Williams leaves, your quarterback, Philip Rivers, had a 131.6 pass rating every time he targeted you on the season, and you have the draft capital of being the seventh overall pick in the draft with more opportunity. The plain and simple truth is he wasn't on the field enough last year. But when he was, look at reception. Dominated against zone, 84.6% catch rate, dominated in contested catches, and he's a monster. There are players, two of them that I'll bring up.

Mike Evans and Des Bryant. When they made their breakout jump, and they're similar size comps to Mike Williams, Des went from the number 20 wide receiver, jumped up to the top 10, and Mike Evans did the same thing. He jumped up from 24, or sorry, Des jumped from 24 to 2, Mike Evans jumped from 20 to 3. So they were both in that range. Mike Williams last year, number 24 overall.