Early Breakouts & Busts - LIVE in Chicago

with the ultimate draft kit. So yes, give it up for St. Jude. Yes. They are doing work. Doing serious work. Absolutely. So we're proud to be partnering with them. Like I said, let's get into the news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by Sleeper. Not a lot of news. That's the end of the news. Just a little bit of news. But I want to get your reaction to this bit of news. Matthew Stafford, the report came out.

was playing through Broken Bones in his back all of last season. Previously to last season. Oh, come on! Boo! Come on. Look, we want... You want to win, but you... It's like the Raptors fans with Duran right there. Don't do that. But playing through Broken Bones, by the way, here, you can cheer this part. Let me see you play through Broken Bones in your back. Let me see you play an NFL game. We would all die.

That's true. If you saw me finish one NFL game, then you would see me play through broken bones in my back. Because the first or second play, it would happen. Like, there's no doubt. We'll work on it. Yeah. I really wanted to jump off this stage tonight. Speaking of broken bones, I promised I would jump off. It's just a little bit. For those on the podcast who are not seeing...

very tall stage. I was like, I can't do it. That's at least 50 feet. Yeah, at least. But here's what's very interesting about that news. Because we all remember Stafford's fantasy season last year. It was an absolute dumpster. It was really bad. Train wreck. But the first half was actually excellent. I mean, through the first seven weeks, he was averaging 273 passing yards, two touchdowns

per game. Like, he was, he was actually very good for fantasy, and then things just absolutely fell off a cliff. And I bring it up. And that would explain it. Well, it's more of a reason why they struggled. No, they had a new offense in place, new head coach. And Stafford had been known for seven straight years, 4200 plus passing yard. Right. All of a sudden it falls off. The bears didn't treat him well. Four interceptions, eight sacks in two games. That's what you...

I encourage you to hear that. They could have been... I don't know if they broke his back, but they could have. 14 of his 21 passing touchdowns came in those first seven weeks. Yeah. So that's how bad things fell apart. Here's the reality and what we need to remember with Matthew Stafford. It's so easy as fantasy players or fantasy analysts to get too caught...

with recency bias and just think whatever happened last year is what's going to happen and not look at the larger set of data. And Matthew Stafford has been a quarterback one. He's been in the top 12 of the last eight years. He's been there six times. But this year in fantasy drafts, he's being lumped with Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold and Derek Carr. And the honest truth for me is... And I don't want to draft him or play him. Exactly. And I had written Stafford off because I thought this was...

100% a Golden Tate problem. But perhaps the injury played a far more than we realized. Marvin Jones. Yes. No Marvin Jones. So Danny and Madolla there now, Mike. I know you've got him in Dynasty. How's his health meter doing? Just about as always. It starts at 100%. Oh, yeah. But it goes down rapidly. Mike, you brought up Albert Wilson. Ooh. Yes. Bad news guy. That's my new best friend in the crowd. That has to be Albert Wilson himself.

He can't travel with his body. That's true. It's in pieces. That's the news. He could miss the start of training camp. You liked him as a... You don't care. Yeah, well, the missing training camp was fully expected. That's why he's here tonight. Yeah, he's not doing anything else. No. The thing about Wilson is he's supposed to be on track for the start of the season. And he is, he is like your last round. He is a completely his sound asleep. This is a Rip Van Winkle.

Levels of sleeping. That's a literature reference for people in the crowd. I got to bust the boo. I got boo literature. Boo reading. But yeah, so that's why I like Wilson. He's still on track to be ready for the season. Okay. Anything else we should touch on? The past interference rule has changed again. Sorry, Saints fans. One year too late. Is that better? Let's ask that question. Sure. Is it better if...

irreparable harm has been done to your team. Damon, our manager, the biggest Saints fan I know, I don't think he stopped crying for days. I mean, that was misery. What a baby. Get over it. But...

If a rule like that happens and then a year later they fix it, does it make you feel better? Yes. You got, I mean, like, you don't. What do you think? You're not happy. I'm not saying it makes you happy. Like, oh, good. Everything's fine. Nothing to see here. Would you accept an honorary Super Bowl trophy? Of course I would. If they all. If anybody out there has any honorary trophies for me, I will accept them. Okay, it's not a trophy. It's a ribbon. Sure. Yeah. He's fine with it. What else? Sort of Super Bowl winner. Yep, I accept.

But look, I would want it changed. You've got to learn from the mistakes that the NFL is making. This is good news. I like that the NFL is always progressing, always looking at the rules saying let's not just have our game continue to suck. Yeah, that was hard. That was difficult. All right, that's news and notes for today. A reminder, grab the Sleeper app, the best, most flexible platform. Before we jump back into the show, we want to thank today's sponsor, Turo.

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It's very intense up here. I can tell you that. Very intense. Oh, there you. Stop. Stop. No, no. Keep going. You're too kind. I can get him to stop. Watch this. My breakout is Carry on Johnson. Carry on. Now here's the truth. Jason's last year breakout was. No. Here's. Carry on my words.

A quick look to next year. Carry on my words, son. Look, I only say his name because... It's a thick pane of glass. He's got to go all the way. Three seasons to get through it. Look, I do, I fully, I 100% believe he's going to break out. He would be my breakout guy. But I've talked to him, I've talked about him way too much. Too many years, he's not actually... They all know what you're going to say. Too many years? It's his second year in the league.

Look, I'm a man of the people. They don't want to keep hearing me talk about Carri-on Johnson, other than that guy. I do. So I'm going to talk about my other- He owns Carion Johnson, so that makes sense. Here's the actual breakout that I'm going for for this show that I want to make a case for. Because honestly, right now, I think that the majority, while you hear this name from time to time, like, oh, he's got breakout potential. That's not being realized in the draft at all. He is so cheap. So you want to ruin it. And I'm going to ruin that.

To the honest of good, I'm not going to give away the name. The hype train was coming out of the station 100% early on in what we call the extended by. Thank you. I heard him say it, so I had to do it. But then the NFL draft happened. Right. And it hurt him. That made the train take a quick pit stop.

Yeah. As trains are known to do. Well, it's really easy. At the local gas station. It's very easy to stop a train. Change the tires. So, look, my breakout candidate right now is being drafted as the 95th player in your draft. So you can get him cheap, and if he doesn't break out, it's not that bad. He's the 35th wide receiver going in your drafts, which, of course, hopefully I'm about to destroy that right now. It is Dante Pettis.

who is going to break out this year. Let me make a case, okay? The case starts back in college. I love them coming out of college. A very talented player, 163 receptions, over 2,200 yards, and 24 touchdowns. Now...

Touchdowns translate. That's one of the, if you look at sticky stats from college, it's kind of funny because touchdowns are one of those, we talk about in fantasy football. They're not a sticky stat from year to year in the NFL. They really aren't. You can't predict. Most difficult to predict. Right. Difficult to repeat, circumstantial based on team offense and opportunity. Calvin Johnson dragged down on the two-yard line 47 times one season. Exactly. But when it comes to running backs and wide receivers, specifically from college to the NFL,

Touchdowns are a great predictor. 24 in college is unbelievable. Another great predictor of NFL success, we've said this on the show before, is special teams kick and punt returning success. And Dante Pettis very well might be the best punt returner in the history of NCAA football. We're talking over 1,200 yards. I think Devin Hester fans are out there.

He said NCAA. I like this. I did say NCAA. You're being vood. Look, nine punt return touchdowns in college. That's unbelievable. So then what happened in the draft last year? We've got to rewind the tape and go, okay. Look, he was the 12th draft pick taken on day two. In the second round, the 49ers.

drafted him as that's extremely good draft capital, but it wasn't just that draft capital. They traded their second and their third round pick to go get their guy. They're like, I want Dante Pettis. They draft him. He comes in. So what happens? Week one, week one last year, he was a starter. We're talking over 70% of the snaps. And Pierre Gerson and Marquis Goodwin were healthy then. And they still said, Pettis, you're in, you're a starter. He finished week one as the wide receiver 20.

So then we two. 15 spots higher than he's being drafted this year. Right. Week two. He has another good week. His snap counts are great. 80% gets injured in week three. He's basically out from that point out until week 11.

Okay, because he's dealing with these injuries. He's way lower than 50% snap percentage on all those games. If you look at the game log, you'll see like, oh, he was playing, but he was injured. He was not playing many snaps. It wasn't until week 11 that he got back up to over 70% of those snaps. And from week 11 to 14, last year, this is still his rookie year where he's figuring out the offense. At this point, Jimmy Garoppolo is gone.

Over that period, he was the wide receiver 12, and he didn't do it. Here's one of the things that a lot of times those numbers, when you're like, oh, this month, he was the wide receiver 12. Well, that's because he had some, like, 2502 touchdown game that inflates everything. All four weeks, he was a wide receiver 2 or better. He was consistent week in and week out as a rookie. Now you look at what he's talking about this offseason. He's talking about how, like, he didn't.

He was so focused on the playbook and trying to get it. He was so in his head that he wasn't that great last year. He wasn't playing fast. Right. Now, look at his outlook this year. Who's he competing with? Marquis Goodwin. Everyone is basically saying he's pretty much a backup even in camp right now. Pierre Garsohn is gone. Debo Samuel. I love Debo Samuel. But Debo Samuel is going to deal with the same Kyle Shanahan, difficult playbook. A rookie. I'm so thankful.