Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016, Part 1

targets and yardage and things like that much easier than you can predict whether or not Lig Garrett Blunt's going to be on the one yard line two times or five times this game and get those touchdowns. Levion Bell's done it for years. Yes, you have the narrative that maybe there's an injury concern because he has missed time. I don't.

I don't have an injury concern with Levi-on-Bel. Maybe that's foolish, but I have none. And so next year, Levy on Bell will be my number one pick. He is just too consistent. Too central to that offense, they figured out how to run with him. One of the unique things about Lev Bell, when you look at how all three of those guys performed against top and bottom defenses at the position, both Zeke and David Johnson averaged about three or four points more against bottom 16 rushing defenses, as you might expect.

And that's all right. You just don't want that split to be outrageous. But Levion Bell, Levy on Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys. Sorry, seven more points.

against bottom half defenses versus top. And so he took even more advantage of bad defenses. It wasn't at the expense of performing against good ones. It just was excessively good against bad ones. So he takes advantage of those. Obviously, we saw what he did to Buffalo. And those three guys, look, you don't need to talk a ton about them because there's not a secret to them as far as, ooh, you don't draft them. No, you draft them all. Remember him going into next year, guys. Draft them in whatever order you want.

I mean, I do not care. At this point, I do not care whatsoever because you might be right, no matter what you pick. Let's move on to some of the names that are, I think, a little bit more interesting. We'll be more interesting in the draft next season. LaShawn McCoy was one of the biggest steals in the draft. Slippery fish. The slippery fish himself. He was about, you know, ADP of 26, ended up to fourth ranked running back. That's great. It was very consistent.

He had one dud game, had 13 games in the top 25. You know, what's the story for LaShaul McCoy next year? I think it's, you know, business as usual. We'll see that with the coaching changes. Hopefully that doesn't shake things up too much. I think that whoever, wait, do we, who is it? I can't recall. Who took the bill's job? I can't remember his last name. Go ahead. Go ahead. Anyways, my point was McDermott. I think, yeah, there you go. I was going to say.

I'm sure they will, they know that LaShawn McCoy is the best option to go to for that offense. So he's going to get fed regardless. But what will happen to the offensive line? What will the schemes be? Because that offensive line was Rex Ryan took them out of the toilet. They were bad before LaShawn McCoy got there. I had concerns two years ago.

When Shady was traded to Buffalo, the line is so bad. However, when you look at Buffalo what they were doing this year, they were amongst the tops, or Shady was amongst the tops in yards before context. I mean, the scheme, what they were doing was working. So hopefully they can continue moving along with that. And I think that he will be well worth his draft price. I will say this. With Rex Ryan leaving. I have concerns. I had concerns.

with Rex Ryan leaving because he is a true he's I mean we saw it this year right shady got the ball you know every other play was shady he was the centerpiece of that offense without question and that's kind of what Rex Ryan has always had and always wanted with him leaving it scares me because if you don't have that volume you're a talented back but opportunity is king in fantasy football that being said

They brought in another defensive minded. They didn't swing the pendulum too far. They brought in Sean McDermott from the Carolina Panthers, you know, as a defensive-minded coach, which usually means running. So I think he's going to be okay next year, but he'll fall. I think his ADP will fall because of the coaching change. He might end up being an okay pick. Yeah, I, you know, they have other weapons there. They do? Sure. They have Mike Gillisley.

I'm saying it. Mike Gillisley's a restrictive free agent. He may or may not be bad. They have Jonathan Williams, too. And I'm just saying at the running back position, you talk about volume, he had almost 100 carries less than Ezekiel Elliott. So he wasn't somebody that got 300 plus carries. He's older, okay? He has a tendency to break down in the middle of games. It seems like because of that, they want to share the load with other guys. Maybe it's not Gillisley. Maybe Gillisley's back.

I think this is just the tier you step into where there are more question marks. Can he repeat? Yes. Do you have variables? Injury, depth chart, coaching change, those things? Yeah, I think you do. So is Jason right about him dropping? I think all of those reasons are reasons why he'll be lower, but he'll be like DeMarco Murray was or LaShawn McCoy was this year where, look, you take the risk and you hit. He's a home run. You take the risk and you miss.

He probably just fulfills his draft value. So that makes him, I think, a good pick. Yeah. Yeah, I can agree with that. So compare him to this year's DeMarco Murray and DeMarco Murray. Wait, are you telling me this year's DeMarco Murray was DeMarco Murray? That's what I'm telling you. This year's DeMarco Murray was DeMarco Murray. That makes sense. And so.

He finished as a number five running back. You're talking to DeMarco now. DeMarco. Consistency. This year's DeMarco? This year's DeMarco. This year's DeMarco. I'm talking about this year's DeMarco. Don't talk about last year's DeMarco. No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no. So he was the number four in standard number three in PPR for consistency. Very, very consistent. In fact, I believe it was his, he had a.

over 12 points, his first 11 games, something like that. He was very good this year. They have much less change. That's how I perceive. If you want to compare Shady, who was a great pick, and DeMarco, who was a great pick this last year, both guys that fell a little bit in the draft, you've got all the changes you just described with Shady. But coming up for DeMarco Murray, the only changes that are coming are perceived ones of saying, maybe they should get Derek Henry more involved. I think that's a pretty big...

Perceived change. Yeah, but my point is it's perceived. People think, I think it might happen. The head coaching change? It happened. We're not saying they might make a head coaching change. No, no, no. That happened. Those type of things are not the same with DeMarco. I feel like there's a lot more consistent. Are you contending, are you contending that this year's DeMarco Murray might be next year's DeMaco Murray? I am contending that. He may be DeMarco Murray again.

Just for context, LaShaul McCoy is four months younger than DeMarco Murray. They're both 28 years old. They still have obviously gas in the tank. I tend to lean much more. Like if I had to choose between the two, I'm choosing to Michael Murray. I buy much more into the narrative that Jason just spoke of with the lack of change, what the offense needs to be. To me,

Henry is going to be that ancillary piece until Murray's time runs out there because Murray just offers so much more flexibility. Veteran, you know, he knows how to pass block. He knows how to catch the ball. I think he's going to be the guy that people are going to rumor the demise of, and you're just going to see another year of status quo. So I buy into that myself. Yeah, so we would both take to Marco Murray over Shady next year. I would. I would. Mike, who would you pick? As of this moment, Mike, who would you pick? As of this moment,

Right now, oh, that's tough. That's very tough. From an ADP perspective this year, you should have, you would have preferred to have DeMarco Murray than LaShawn McCoy as well, because Murray was in the 40s, McCoy was in the 20s. Yeah, but I disagree with the, I think that Henry will be more, I'll be on that camp of Henry will be more involved. That's not going to say DeMarco Murray won't get 250 plus carries. It just means Henry is going to be more involved. I'm.

I would be more concerned about Henry getting involved than I would be worried about Jonathan Williams getting involved behind Shady. Oh, just get ready for John Williams. I've got him on my dynasty team, so he's set. Here's a great segue. Oh, it all comes out now. The truth. The truth. Hey, the truth, it spreads to all of us. You want some truth about running backs. Then let's talk about Devonta Freeman. Yeah, we need to move it down the line. Devonta Freeman is very, very interesting. He was the sixth rain running back. And the question.

this year coming into this year, the question that will definitely be going into next year is Tevin Coleman. Yep. What do you do when Tevin Coleman isn't injured for half the year, which granted seems like maybe he will be again. Maybe he will. But what do you think, Andy, I'm going to put you on the spot here because Mike and I were looking at some stuff yesterday. So don't look at it right now. How do you? Don't look at some stuff. All right. Stuff.com. Not going to go there. Good, good, good. Thank you, Mike, for the warning. So DeVantza Freeman.

With Tevin Coleman and without Tevin Coleman in the games. What kind of a difference do you think that made in the games that he played by himself versus the games he played with Tevin Coleman? Oh, so you already know these numbers. I already know. You know, I doubt they're very different. Hmm. I would have perceived that they were quite different, right? Because people think, oh, well, sure, Freeman had a good year, but Tevin Coleman was out for a lot of it. The splits. Three games.

Yeah, the splits while, uh, the splits while Tevin Coleman was in, Devanta Freeman had more fantasy production on average in games that Tevin Coleman played than in the ones he was out. His, his points didn't go down. They went up. He didn't he, in fact, averaged almost 20 more rushing yards per game. Well, see, that's surprising. Like when I said maybe they're around the same, that was just because I remember at the end of the year.

You know, some of these games we were trying to take Coleman over Freeman. You thought it would be a Coleman game. They were all Freeman games. That's what being number six on the running. When you say a Coleman game or a Freeman game, they were all Freeman games. There was only one game he finished outside the top 48. 13 of his 16 games was top 25. So he did beat up on bad defenses. That's when he made his hay. But that's fine. I mean, that's fine to me.

fifth-ranked consistency guy, still caught 54 passes. And I think what you see, like if you had to overarching tell the story of Devante Freeman this year, the story is the offense. The story is just, it's too good of an offense to paint a picture of deficiency because of a shared backfield. You know, we probably won't paint a picture next year of New England. You know, Dionne Lewis and Legerat-Blunt will get drafted. And these two guys...

are even more central, and both past catchers, I just, look, I'm not going to fade Freeman. Now, I know I heard in the studio yesterday, I heard you guys talking in the other room, and, you know, Mike, I heard you say, look, the value on Coleman to you is just going to end up better than Freeman. Yes. And that's not, that's, maybe it will. That's not at all that I dislike Freeman. I like Devante Freeman, and what the numbers speak to it, and you saw it, you saw it last year with Devante Freeman's,

his explosion was it all came as soon as Tevin Coleman went out, but you saw him wear down. And I think he just him, he's a smaller guy. He needs Tevin Coleman. He needs those brakes during the game. So it's perfect that they're both there. I just, I think that Devonty Freeman's going to be a second round pick next year. For context. And Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman had nine top 25 performances. Freeman had 13. So depending like this past year.

Freeman was the second round pick. Tevin Coleman was... Free. Basically, yeah, 140 in Standard League, 112 and PPR. That's not going to happen again. Not even close. Where do you think he's going to go? Maybe in the fifth round, six round, seventh round? My guess was the sixth. Look, Melvin Gordon last year went in the sixth. That's about where I would see Tevin Coleman going this next year. If I can grab Freeman in the second and Coleman in the sixth or seventh, I would grab both of them.

I'd be happy to. Very interesting, though. I did not know those splits. Those are very interesting. Very truthy. Splits. All right. The John Clyde Van Dan style. The next guy who is, you know, very similar to Levion Bell in the sense that he was only the eighth most consistent guy, but he missed games. And so the way that our consistency metrics are put together, it's not really fair to him. Melvin Gordon was a beast, an absolute beast this year when he was playing.

But it took, you know, Johnny Wahlberg. It took the perfect storm. Johnny Wahlberg? Did I just go Johnny Wahlberg? Okay, it's Mark. Johnny John and the Funkie Bunch. You leave my references over here. Johnny, Mark. He just said Johnny John and the Funky Bunch. Right? Isn't it Johnny John in the Funky Bunch? Yeah, it's exactly right. Yeah. Yeah, an old Steve Clooney.