Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 20 Tight Ends, Preseason Review, News, Mailbag

a target, and Big Ben buys time in the pocket and finds Heath Miller. He had 88 targets last year. He catches about 750 yards, and he kind of, I mean, he's babywitten. Yeah, that's a good, in a lot of ways. Good analogy. So talk to me about Thomas. We know he's been injured, and he's coming out of Peyton Manning and a team that was always on the goal line. He was never really a high yardage guy. So does Julius have potential in Jacksonville? Potential, yes, because he's...

He's a gifted athlete, but here's my problem with Julius Thomas. 2013, he averaged 56 yards a game. 2014 averaged 38 yards per game. Why was he so great? Why did everyone love him? 12 touchdowns every year. While we like Blake Bortles, we think he can be a good quarterback. Do we think he's going to throw 12 touchdowns to the tight end? No. That's the hard connection. Are the Jaguars going to throw 12 touchdowns to tight in and running back and...

you know, combined, like, no, of course not. Yeah, last year, so it was Bortle's first year, so take that into account, but Clay Harbour, Mercedes-Lewis, the main tight ends on that team, combined for 66 targets. Targets, not reception. Targets. That's ridiculously low. And I think, you know, Julius Thomas has never been a volume guy, right? He got like 40 passes last year. It's just a quarter of them were for touchdowns. So, and you've got a broken finger.

So it does make it a little bit more difficult to catch a ball with a broken finger. I don't know. Well, I mean, yeah. How would you know? I would do it because I'm my hands. I'm very good. All right. 13, 14, 15. Dwayne Allen, Vernon Davis and Kobe Fleener. Wow, Vernon Davis is this. I was going to say, even though Vernon's at 14, we're probably surprising a lot of people if you're looking at other.

Cheat, cheats. And this is you, Andy. So you've got him up at 11. We've got him down at 18 and 19. So speak Vernon Davis. I know you've got Colin Kaepernick love and belief. Part of it is the belief that Colin Kaepernick is going to be throwing the ball more and that he's lost.

weapons there that the defense has lost so many pieces. They're going to be just in-games throwing. Part of it is because Vernon Davis has athletically and in fantasy shown us he can be an elite tight end. 13 touchdowns in a season before? Absolutely. And he's had big time years. And a couple of those have come when people have wondered. Well, is he going to have a good year? And...

Another piece is Vernon was hurt last year. And so the question is, does he come back and does he have the same athleticism, the same ability to be a Pro Bowl caliber tight end or not? That's the gamble you take. But at Fort, you know, where you're getting Vernon Davis, I'll take the gamble happily because it's going to be with probably the second to last pick of my draft, or third of last pick. So speaking to Dwayne Allen, Dwayne Allen is, he's actually kind of like Julius Thomas on the Broncos where he doesn't get a high volume of targets. Last year, only 50 targets.

eight touchdowns. And sometimes what you're looking for in a tight end streamer, because so many of them are touchdown dependent, why not take a gamble on a guy like Dwayne Allen where it's going to be all or nothing. You either get the touchdown, you're happy, or you don't. But for a guy who, that's what he does, you can throw him out there week to week and maybe. It's probably going to average half a touchdown.

Which means, you know, somewhere around there, finished the year with about, you know, seven or eight touchdowns. So it means you've got a pretty good shot. And really the truth is, we haven't talked streaming tight ends. But that's what I generally do. If I don't have one of the absolute top guys, I'm going to play matchups because there are a lot of indicators on a week-to-week that actually show good matchups for tight-ins. Some teams just don't know how to guard tight-ins. Completely agree. But Dwayne Allen and Kobe Fleener aren't my favorite.

streamer picks because they're, I mean, they're almost back to back in our rankings. I mean, I don't like deciding between which Indianapolis Colts tight end is going to have the big game. Yeah, I can understand. When you play streamers, you're playing numbers anyway. You're saying, I hope this matchup works out. And now you're saying, I hope.

my tight end of the two tight ends works out. Yeah, I get that. It's just a matter of when you stream, you look for touchdowns. You know, that's one of the things you're going to look for the most potential touchdowns. And obviously, even with Fleener there, you still have that with Alan. But I think that's a good point. And generally, one of them goes down for minor nick injury here or there. If either goes down, stream the other. So in this next group of guys, I'm going to try to figure out which one of you is responsible.

for him being in our consensus rankings. But 16, 17, 18, or 1617, 18 are Delaney Walker, Josh Hill, and Antonio Gates. Josh Hill is at the, he's the lowest ranked tight end or one of the lower ranked tight ends on my top 30. So who's responsible for this? I still have him at 13 and 12 currently. Is he, you have him where? 13 and PPR and 12 in standard. Defend yourself.

Touchdowns, my man. I understand that Ben Watson's... So identical to Dwayne Allen's situation. Yes. And, I mean, tight ends, you don't have to do very much to become a tight end one. So where's Ben Watson for you? He's not there, and this is why. Listen, Ben Watson, I understand that he's the starter and he's probably going to get more playing time. I still think Josh Hill will get more targets and more touchdowns. Last year, Josh Hill... What do you have? Six? He had five. Oh, five. One out of every five...

Every four passes was a touchdown for Josh Hill. Yeah. And he'll get a little bit more looks because clearly Jimmy Graham is gone. I don't think he is a where we were looking and we were hoping that Josh Hill is going to be a week-to-week dependable plug-in guy and you just leave him there. You set it. You forget it. I don't think he will be that. He will be hit and miss just like all these guys we're talking about right now are hitting miss. Yeah, I had him just outside a tight-in one because of what you're saying, Mike. But I actually am believing that

Coleman over there is going to take a little bit more away, not just from Josh Hill. So I've got him down at 17. You know, he's got touchdown opportunities. He's got Drew Brees Hall-Fame quarterback. You're right, Mike. You're right. I mean, there's why not? Why not Josh Hill? You know, why not Rudolph? Why not any of these guys from week to week around the goal line? And at least in New Orleans, it's a good offense with a good quarterback who does throw around the goal. Exactly. So what I think needs to be explained is Antonio Gates at 18? What are you guys doing? What's wrong with that?

Uh, four games, suspension? Yeah, but he's great. And there are many more games in the season. And we're talking 18. I'll take Antonio Gates.

and stream somebody the first few weeks, because I feel like when he comes back, he's just going to be Antonio Gates. I think he will do that, but if we're statting them out on 16 games and you take those away, which is exactly what I did on my numbers, I believe in Gates, and he dropped, just taking out, you know, a quarter of the season, he dropped to 27 in my list. I think right now, Andy, you still have a 10. How many touchdowns do you have for Antonio Gates? Because that's completely what he was. He would give you huge games of... I think probably eight. Yeah, so last year he had...

12, right? So that's why he was so good. And so let's hypothesize here. You think that as soon as Antonio Gates comes back, he's inserted right back in the starting lineup, which I don't have... One million percent, yes. I don't have a problem with. What happens, though, if Laderius Green is on fire for four games? I don't care. I don't care about that hypothetical. He's been... There's enough guys that are those type of hypotheticals to me that I don't care about it. And Laderius Green, let's be honest. It's like, ooh, he finally gets an opportunity. No.

No, it's not his final opportunity. He's had opportunity for years. Who did they just sign a four-year contract? Yeah. Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, when they're together, until Gates, the wheels fall off, which, you know, people thought it happened, and maybe it happens this year, but 12 touchdowns last year says Philip Rivers looks to Antonio Gates around the goal line. So for me, I mean, I kind of feel like this is, we're arguing for the touchdown potential of these other guys. He's already got like 10 years of proving it. Okay, that's fair. So are you?

Are you drafting and holding Antonio Gates anywhere? I am drafting Antonio Gates at the end of the draft and holding him, yeah. Really? You're going to let a tight end clog up a bench spot for four games. Yeah, I can say that I won't be doing that. I'll be, because I don't think most other people will. I'm going to grab them off the waivers. You have to have two tight ends at that point. Yeah, it depends on my league. Completely. Five bench spots, maybe not. Six or above, yeah, I probably do. Okay. Because if it's a free tight end, because that's what he'll be.

Because most people aren't going to draft them. I'm not going to reach for Antonio Gates. Don't get me wrong. I just think, where do I have him rank? In the top 12. I'll take a top 12 tight in with the last week in the drafts and hold him a few weeks. Sure. And, you know, he can get himself healthy. Yeah, he gets four games to be healthy. All right. He doesn't get his magical juice to be healthy, though. Well, you know. He vehemently denies any wrongdoing, doesn't he? Don't they always?

His test says otherwise. I know. All right. Owen Daniels... Yes. Owen Daniels at 19. Charles Clay at 20. We need to talk Owen Daniels. Both are in the... If I'm trying to categorize all these guys. These are both... I don't know. No, I disagree. So...

Let me put it this way. On our rankings right now, you know, Andy, you've had to defend yourself a couple times. But Owen Daniels. Defend yourself. I'm not surprised. But right now, you have a lot of, I have a lot of foresight. I can kind of see beyond my own hand in front of my face. So I have to defend myself a lot. Owen Daniels, you both have at 24. Foster will be fine. I'm going to get him in all my leagues. This was all part of a master plan, fantasy reaper. The fantasy reaper strikes to gain value. I wasn't going to get him.

I had talked him up so much. Everyone was drafting him number one. Now I can get him. It's the long play. That's right. Anyways, with Owen Daniels, you guys both have him equal at 24, which wouldn't have even made our consensus top 20, and I've got him at 12. I've got him in the back of a tight-in one. I think it's kind of crazy. I went back and looked and watched some film and looked at Virgil Green, who has really truly done absolutely nothing from a receiving standpoint in his entire career. And Peyton Manning is...

a guy who has always used his tight-in. Owen Daniels has a great history of catching over 50 balls and putting up good yards. He's always been with Kubiak, and he's never played with a guy like Peyton. Julius Thomas leaves and some of those touchdowns. I just think there's opportunity here in an offense where you're the starting tight-in for a guy that uses tight-ins with a coach that uses tight-ins. It's crazy to me to think 24th tight-in. I have no possibility. I have no problem with where I have.

Yeah, there's no possibility he finishes that way. He hasn't played in Denver before. He's been injured a lot. Virgil Green has looked good so far, and he's been targeted frequently. Peyton Manning has a history of using other tight ends. When Dallas Clark was there, Jacob Tam, he still caught passes. Those type of situations took place. These are the things that factor into it for me. I don't disagree. He could surprise. He could be great. I don't think it's a surprise. That's my point. Why wouldn't it be a surprise when he hasn't played in Denver yet?

But he's played with Kubiak his entire career. And he's had down seasons with Kubiak before, too. He's had injured seasons where he misses the whole season. He's had seasons where he hasn't produced very well. This is what I'll say about Owen Daniels. I'm with Andy. I have him ranked low. I mean, 48 catches last year with Kubiak. What's the story with that? With Joe Flacco. What was his number? I think that there's a big difference. Okay.

Well, no. No, it's fine. It's fine. 50 catches. I'm saying if you just stat him out. This is what you get on the fantasy footballers. We are not group think people who just agree with one another for goodness sakes. Take aside people. Yeah, we get you the information and you get to decide, hey, I think this logic is right or this logic is wrong. Mike, which side are you on? I have him ring. Because he's never caught more. He hasn't caught 70 passes since 2008.

I have him getting 55 receptions this year. I have him ranked low, but if I'm waiting until the end of the draft and let's say I'm looking at guys, it's Hill, Clay, the guys that we all have in this consensus area, Hill, Gates, Daniels, Clay, I'm going to take Daniels because his upside is there. That's fine. All of this said, we have to remember, and I cannot say this enough for our listeners. We get so crazy about the draft, right? Especially, you know, we're talking tight ends today. And the truth is,

You will not win your championship on draft day. Unless it's a best ball league. You will not. And especially when it comes to tight ends, those are guys where you need to know how to pick your matchups, how to do your matchups. So really, don't get crazy caught up with who you're going to draft and that your draft is your end all be. I'll keep listening.