Top 10 RB Rankings + Duke’s Out, Chubb’s Up

The worst offense in the league. If they are the Arizona Cardinals, okay, maybe Sequin does bust and he's the running back 10 like David Johnson was last year, but he can't go lower than that without missing games because, I mean, perfect example, right? Odell Beckham is gone and we saw him play with Odell Beckham and without. He scored nearly five fewer fantasy points in PPR per game without Odell Beckham. So Odell Beckham being gone, that hurts him.

big time, and yet that five fewer fantasy points a game was still over 20 points a game. I mean, he was still one of the top backs. He just wasn't the clear-cut weekly number one. So I think it's kind of an amalgamation where you know his upside is outlandishly high, the number one overall, but his floor, in the worst-case scenario...

It's just not that low. He's not going to drop out of the top 10 running backs and fantasy. 16th best fantasy season of all time last year. Best ever by a rookie. Eight most targets of all time for a running back. Best ever for a rookie and led the league in yards from scrimmage, third most ever by a rookie. Yeah, his past catching keeps him safe. He is a sensational running back. I've talked about for me, like if you're trying to find the one.

area that might hurt Sequin Barclay. It was, I've talked about it's his amount of huge runs, which he had a ton of them because he's a great running back. What was interesting is great friend of the show, Scott Barrett, put out an article, and on carries where Barclay didn't bust off a 20-yard run, so just the other regular carries, he averaged 2.72 yards.

precarie, which is the lowest, the worst of 256 qualifying seasons. It's nice to break a lot of long runs. When you qualify that and you said that's the worst of those seasons, are you talking about that specific stat? Are you talking about that's the worst? Yes. Compared to others of runs under 20 yards? Yes. It's a pro football focus metric they're talking about. It blew my mind to see it actually out in a statistical fashion instead of

just knowing how awesome he was with these huge runs. So my point simply is that's like I have him at two because I see a regression coming for the big plays. He'll still have a ton of them, probably the most at the running back position. But if he doesn't hit him as consistent as he did last year, then he's just, he's the number two guy. I do agree that he has a worse season this season than he had last season. But the whole bulletproof analogy, it's like you got your vest on and you get, you're getting shot a lot and it's going to hurt.

You can break ribs, but you're going to come out alive. He catches just too many passes. I will say this. Small sample size, but he has never finished as in the top 24 running backs in week 15 in his career. So there is that. Watch out. Championship. Week 15, that's an important week. I think, Andy, you experienced that last year. So just, you know, put that in your tuck it away. Don't remind me. I hate Sequin. He's no good.

Number two is Christian McCaffrey. Jason and I have them at three. Mike has them at one. I was going to add, like when you look at the things, you know, again, splitting hairs at the top 10 of the position. Certainly. We did top 10 wide receivers a couple episodes ago. You're just finding differentiation between great players. Everybody's got those top four in a different order. I would rather lean on the volume of Sequin than looking to Christian McCaffrey to catch over 100 passes again.

I think Saquan should approach 300 carries on the ground, whereas I think McCaffrey is going to be in that 220 category. Predictability of, you know, record-breaking, pass-catching years year-to-year, I think is a little bit lower. And that's why I go with Saquan over McCaffrey, but no one can blame Mike for loving McCaffrey. He's his number one overall. Last year, 219 carries 1100 yards, seven touchdowns, 107 receptions.

And he never busted for a fantasy owner. He was as reliable as they get 100% of his games. Qualified as good. 47% great games. We talked about it a little bit last week. The back half of the year, nobody's sure that Cam Newton could throw the ball beyond a certain distance after a while. Definitely helped McCaffrey. Do you believe that the team will?

reduce the snap count and workload for McCaffrey at all. That's their narrative that they're putting out there is that we want to use them as much, but we don't want them on the field as much. I don't think they're going to limit his usage. While he might not have the volume of a Zeke or a Sequin, he does have enough volume to be very safe. Norve Turner won't be able to get out of his way. Christian McCaffrey will be on the field. Now,

You know, there's a couple things that I think come down from last year, right? Obviously, his rookie year, he's in the middle threes on his yard per carry, goes up to five. Both of those seem like probably the low and the high for him. Sure. He'll probably meet in the middle. And then the past catching, look, he is, I think, the best past catching running back in football. He's outstanding. They're going to hyper-target him. He'll have over 100 targets. But the difference between what happened...

with the cam shoulder injury, some of the other injuries to other players like Greg Olson. What you saw in the first half of the year was a guy on pace for 116 targets, which is amazing and outstanding, and you love it. And the second half of the year, he was on pace for 132 targets, which is just outlandish. Sure, but I would go against that by saying 116 targets is actually...

eight fewer than he received on the season. Like, that was basically what he ended up with, 116, 124 targets last year. If he was on 116 pace, there's not a large difference. To me, the difference, and his rookie are 113 targets. So the difference to me is Cam Newton. You briefly mentioned at the top the narrative of Cam doesn't throw to the running back. Well,

Christian McCaffrey's rookie year, you saw growing pains of Cam Newton targeting the running back, where you saw some throws that should be an easy throw, where Cam Newton was way off the mark. I think he's just gotten better at those touch passes to the running back position because there's not a huge target discrepancy between Christian McCaffrey's rookie and sophomore years.

It's just the catch percentage. What about the maturation of Curtis Samuel, DJ Moore, and then the return of Greg Olson? Do you think that that can impact the involvement of McCaffrey in the game? Greg Olson returning, no, not at all. To me, it just increases the scoring opportunities for Christian McCaffer. Sure. To me, he's still going to be over 100 targets at his floor. So you, in seven rushing touchdowns.

Maybe that bumps up because Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore take the mantle. This is going to be the best offense that Cam Newton has ever been able to work with. I believe that. I believe that. Yeah, for sure. I love Curtis Samuel, love DJ Moore. So once again, we're splitting hairs, but that's why I prefer Christian McCaffrey at number one. All right. Before we jump into number three on our running back rankings, I want to thank NFL game pass. What a perfect time to thank them, too. Today is the...

Preseason week one. Believe you mean the debut of Kyler Murray. What are you guys going to watch tonight? You're done right. I'm going to watch. I'm excited. I'm jacked up to see all the rookies, not just Kyler, how the running backs perform. Does DK Metcalf get on the field and like Monstar some people? I'm excited for the preseason and you can get your first look at all the rookies, all the new players on the new teams. I mean,

If you get NFL game pass, your season starts today, literally today. I'm super jacked up. They got a great deal for you. So you can make sure you see everything that happens tonight and through the weekend. You can kick off the 2019 NFL season with a seven-day free trial when you sign up now at NFL.com slash fantasy footballers. That is a very easy URL to remember NFL.com slash fantasy footballers for a free seven-day.

seven-day trial of NFL game pass. And hey, Foot Clan, look, I know a lot of you where you're thinking. You're like, wait, Jason, is he getting his swollen on? Yeah. I've been working with a personal trainer, working hard, and it's time to demand more Foot Clan from our workout gear. That's where no bull comes in. They are a footwear, apparel, and accessory brand for people who train hard and don't believe in excuses. No bull.

You know what I'm saying? And don't let the simple design fool you because their gear is built to perform made with extremely durable, breathable, abrasion resistant material that moves with you. It's the most comfortable apparel for the most uncomfortable training. It's multi-environment design. It's built to last. It's built to be durable for people who don't want excuses who want to train hard. If you're ready to challenge.

your gear the way that you challenge yourself. Go to no bull project.com slash footballers today for people who put in the work day after day. Noble project.com. That's N-O-B-U-L-L-P-R-O-J-C-T dot com slash footballers. All right. We're moving on number three. You haven't figured it out. He's invincible. It's Alvin Kamara. It's a me.

Super Camario himself. Comes in at number three on our consensus rankings. It was a beautiful year for Alvin Camara. It is a beautiful thing to be a running back on the Norland Saints. A report from Sean Payton today expects Alvin Camara to be the same old Alvin Camara in the same old role. And that led to...

Just under 200 carries, 883 yards, and 14 touchdowns on the ground. 81 reception, 709. I thought you were rebooting over there. I was just shocking when you see 194 carries and 14 touchdowns. Sustainable? Yep. Probably. Probably in this offense. In the Saints offense. It's one of those things where last year the narrative.

Even though I was a huge Camara fan and believer, both coming out of college and then obviously what he did is rookie year was outstanding. But last offseason, there was a lot of questions, right? When you want the talent versus the opportunity, I'm always going to lean the opportunity side because, you know, assuming that talent and opportunity are equal parts in the equation, I want the volume. And last season, there were worries about Alvin Camara because do you really want to draft a top

end pick who's not going to get 200 carries at the running back position? And the answer now is yes, because the talent and opportunity are not equal. The talent of Alvin Camara is special. And the opportunity has might not be in volume, but it is in offense because...

Sean Payton knows what he's doing. When they get around the goal line, it's Camara's world. That's part of why Drew Breezes, you know, started to dip down into fantasy streamingville versus just weekly top three fantasy player. Alvin Camara, you can make the argument should be the number one draft pick just based on the fact that while his workload will stay near the same, I still think it bumps up, having the backup go from Mark Ingram to Latavius Murray. The thing about Camara is that

every touch he has is more valuable than any touch, any other running back has, including the top four. Over the last two years, both McCaffrey and Barclay, who have been, they're in the top five in this category, yards from scrimmage per touch was 5.8 for each player. When Camara touches the ball, it's 6.6 yards per touch, and that's over a two-year span. That's better than anybody in football, better than Gurley, better than Cohen, better than McCaffrey and Barclay. So they're more valuable touches. So you're right. It's more, are you a...

Are you talented? Are you in an incredible offense? He'll probably get fewer rushing attempts than Christian McCaffrey. He'll probably have fewer total receptions than Christian McCaffrey. Do we disagree about that? I think that's correct. He'll have, but he will have more scoring opportunities. We were joking about the 14 touchdowns. That certainly could come down. And that's the only differentiator to me for Alvin Kamara versus these guys. Is it 11 or is it something crazy like 14?

That will be the separator to me. Fifth most receiving yards last year, 81 receptions, fourth at the running back position, extremely elusive, broke 27 tackles. That's fourth at the running back position. He's fantastic. He also has the number one ranked offensive line in football, according to the huddle heading into the new year. Not something you could say about the Giants, although I think their line will improve, but it has three new starters on it. So Camara has the advantage of this, you know, a quarterback that keeps people honest, involved in the passing game.