Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Yahoo's Brad Evans, Rookie RB Rundown, Mailbag

Yeah, without question. I mean, I think that's the same type of thing we saw with the optimism around Artis Pain last year. If John the Stewart was to go down, it was going to be the rookie to carry the load. Let's transition now to the guy that really should have gotten our attention last, you know, the headliner is Ezekiel Elliott. And we didn't get a talk about him on the last show because we focused on the rookie wide receiver. So Ezekiel Elliott goes number four to Dallas, and now we got to break that back.

You know, the backfield down, is the, I know he's saying the right things right now. But is Alfred Morris regretting his decision? I mean, poor Alf. Because it's impossible at this point for him to be involved in any fantasy relevant capacity to me. It's, yeah. At all. I think it's impossible. He might get some touchdowns here and there, but there, it would explode my brain.

If Jerry Jones made this choice to pick up EZE with the number four overall pick and then not just throw him out and say you are the man, you are our DeMarco Murray replacement, you're going to carry the ball over 200 times, you're going to catch a bunch of passes. So with that, I think there's still a spot for Darren McFadden. Right. He was very productive last year. Especially in past catching roles where maybe you're going to need to give Elliott a break. Maybe Elliot's pass protection doesn't.

quite hold up the way that they want it to because you have Tony Romo who you guys have lovingly talked about his his fragility so the if you have Darren McFadden out there and you have Elliot I just I don't see much place at all for Alfred Morris I'm going to say something that will upset the ears of our listeners which is I have Ezekiel Elliott

in that awesome Dallas backfield outside of the top 10. He is my number 11 running back. Well, I, people are so excited. You know, the NFL draft just happened, and you want it to matter, and so you want it to matter almost too much, and you pump it up. And the reason I say that, it's not, I mean, look, I've got my number 11. He's an RB1, and the potential there.

is what you love. I mean, if he were to go out and get the ball 275 times, he's going to finish well above. He'll be top three. Yeah, he would be exactly. But I think he's going to get the ball around 200. I don't think Darren McFadden is going to be thrown away. They just signed Alfred Morris, who will get a couple touches. So I see him taking the lion's share, but I actually think Alfred Morris will be a little bit involved. Darren McFadden will be.

regularly involved. And so Ezekiel Elliott, I've got him, you know, in the 200, 210 touch range, his rookie year, which that to me pushes him just a little outside what I think expectations are. And I think he's going to end up being drafted as a top five, absolute top five running back this year. You think he'll be drafted there? I do. I think he'll be drafted. It's very possible. Do you guys remember how many carries Todd Gurley had last year off the top of your head?

Because I'm going to go in the, I can tell you. In like the 220 range. He was at 220. And that, I actually projected Elliot's season very similarly to Gurley's first season. I gave him a, I think a touchdown less. What about pass? Similar carry rating and a little bit. I'm probably around the same. Probably around the same. I had Elliott at not a heavy amount of pass catching. Okay.

And I'm just giving you, and so those numbers broke down to about 10, 11 for me. Depending on the format, I think he went everywhere from 9 to 13 for me. And so we're all in agreement that he's going to have a big impact in fantasy football. I think what that says, though, because Gurley ended the year very well last year. He had a great season. He was another guy, right? Middle of the season from weeks three to seven or eight, he won weeks for people.

But he, you know, that's a very good season, but we see other running backs basically stepping up and having better seasons. That's what that means to me. Because projecting Ezekiel Elliott to have the numbers that we have is not a, it's not a knock on him. It's just the other guys we think are more consistent, more opportunity, but he's still the top 10 back. The thing with Elliot, though, is in a redraft, I think he's going to be, he'll end up being a first round pick.

Do I think he's worth it? Possibly. I think he's more worthy the value of a second round guy. But the thing about Elliot is, if you want him on your team, you will have to pay that price. No matter, if you're in the first round, that's what you're going to have to invest in him. Let's say you want. He's not going to get back around. Exactly. Let's say you want Elliot. You're at pick number four. You've got to take Elliot. I mean, you have to make that decision. And isn't there something to be said? Now, we all have Ingram ahead of Elliot.

Right. But doesn't Elliot represent this way higher ceiling? The ceiling upside in Dallas if they just gave him the rock and he starts dominating. Yeah. If he starts dominating. So I want to put you guys both. And that's what makes it exciting though in fantasy football. You take those guys. So here we go. Let's do the. I think this will be really valuable for everybody listening. I'm going to put you both on the mock draft with Ezekiel Elliott. You're both going to be on the clock. I'm going to assume here that you're going to take Levion Bell, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson.

David Johnson and Jamal Charles. I'll say the other four, okay? You'll take those four ahead of EZE. So now I'll ask, Jamal Charles or Ezekiel Elliott? Redraft. Man, that one is really tough because of the injury bugaboo. I think Charles can come back strong from it, but that is a factor. You got two seconds left. One. I'm going to take Elliot. All right. Andy? I'll take Charles.

All right. So then if you're already there, Mike, how about Lamar Miller? Man, that's, though, I mean, you're talking really similar situations. I know that Lamar Miller is, you know, he's more proven, and that's the difference with Elliot of, Elliot could bust. I mean, that is that chance. They said that Trent Richardson. Best, best prospect since Adrian Peterson.

The guy's basically out of the league. Yeah, I would bring up Bishop Sanky a couple years ago. Everyone was super high on him. He was drafted. He was the first running back. He was a second round, though. Yeah, I wouldn't say everyone was super high, but he was the first. In fantasy, I saw him going in the second round. Yep, you're right. But the thing is, so there is a chance. I'm not predicting a bus for Elliot, just saying that hangs out there. It is in the realm of possibilities. So you're investing your...

first-round picking a guy who's never taken an NFL snap. And possibilities is the best way to sum up, a rookie running back. You have possibility. And that's what makes him exciting and fun, and you might take him over Miller or Ingram or Charles because he represents possibilities. And if you're in a keeper or a dynasty league format, it goes out the door because you might have a guy that's the running back or the top five running back for multiple years. I'll throw out a scenario. Maybe it's too specific, but I think it will maybe get a thought process going here. In my other keeper league,

I will be likely keeping Levi-on-Bel and Julio Jones. Now, Levin-on-Bel is going to cost me a first-round pick. Okay? Here's my decision. Let's say I draw the 101 pick in that league. I can make a decision to get a great value on a guy like Jeremy Langford or C.J. Anderson. Later on. Or Jordan Reed. I have other guys that could keep. I would forego forever. Keep a right to Levy on Bell. However, I could then grab Elliot.

And I would have keeper rights to him for eternity, basically. I would keep Levy on Bell. Because you know he's very young. He's also coming off of two destructive knee injuries. I would go the other direction. Because you also get to take another keeper later in the draft in place of Lev Bell for the first round keeper rights, I would take Elliot plus Reed, Elliot plus Langford over Lev Bell. Yeah, if you do have other really good options, then that could sway me.

All right, let's talk about some other winners from the draft at the running back position. We've got, I got Ryan Matthews on the list from Philadelphia. For now. Let me just say something. I already know where you're going. It's disgusting. Because his name's going to be associated with it now for the rest of the... Look, in our league of record, which just had our keeper lottery. And to explain that, our league that we play, one of the leagues that we play in...

The way it works is it's a three-keeper league, and you choose from your existing roster the year before one franchise player that is guaranteed to be on your team. Then you select three more guys that go into a keeper lottery, and we pick two of the three names out of the hat, and one more goes into the draft. It's a way to kind of add some risk and excitement another date during the year where we're pulling names from a hat, and we live stream that online, and some big names can go back into the draft. Well,

That just happened. And so now trading is open. And you can trade your keepers or your draft picks. And Mike Wright has come out. The fantasy hitman himself has taken a victim. And he has set his sights on this other team. And he traded a third round pick in a league where we already have 36 guys off the board. So it's pretty much a sixth round pick. Sure. He traded a third round pick for Ryan Matthews. Yes. And it's disgraceful.

And I'm going to put you on blast for taking advantage of that poor soul. No, and here is what I will say. In our opinion, the three of us, it was, I think Matthews in our draft would have probably gone for a second. You guys think you're talking first. Late first second is what I said. I think he can go, I think he was definitely in the second. So I got some value getting him the third. But that is our opinion. That has our value. On fantasy pros, Ryan Matthews is the 27th running back.

right now. I am calling, I'm calling Arian Foster's agent. I'm telling him Philly's interested. But I'm telling him Matt Jones, Melvin Gordon, T.J. Eldon, J. H.I. These are guys in the consensus of experts who are all ranked ahead of Ryan Matthews. Chris Harris just released his running back rankings. Ryan Matthews is not even a running back two. Well, that's just a bad ranking then. I don't know what's what I'm saying. So.

Here's what you need to do if you're listening. I think I did well. I think I got value, but that's based off of my rankings. There's other people. And our opinion too. Right. That's why we're calling you out. But it's not a global opinion that Ryan Matthews is locked there. Which is why, if you are listening, you're bringing up the reason why right now go out and try to steal Ryan Matthews in your league. If you're in a keeper league, just go make a really bad offer for him. And you might get him. And you might get them. And that will be a steal. And Mike has set the...

He set the bar pretty low. All right. So Ryan Matthews right now looks like a winner. They obviously didn't draft Ezekieliot after they moved up. He was out of the running for them and they didn't spend a high pick on a running back. Frank Gore is another guy that jumps into our minds. And I'm starting to come around on him as, okay, it doesn't really matter what I think about Frank Gore. If he's a starting running back for the Colts, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Last year he finished as the number 12 running back.

with an Andrew Luckless team who had a terrible offensive line, and now they come back, they don't bring in any other competition for him. They upgrade their offensive line three times in the draft, and Andrew Luck is back. Last year's number 12 rating for him, while significant, feels a lot like a volume rating. He was healthy and played every game, which is great. I mean, that could be just another feather in the cap of Frank Gore.

But he didn't feel like he made an impact for fantasy teams last year. All right, let me throw out a name for you then. Because he is 33. He could break down. Talking about Gore. Amad Bradshaw. Yep. Last year, he played in a few games because they signed him late and he came in late and then he again, I think, broke a bone and left the season on I. He does that every year. It's kind of his thing. But in those last two games he played, he caught three touchdowns.

And we remember a couple years ago. So it's just a, you know, it's a consideration. I don't think anybody's drafting Ahmad Bradshaw. So it's probably a little bit too early to throw that name out there. But it's worth considering. Well, Bradshaw's not even in Indianapolis. Bradshaw's a free agent. Correct. Yeah, he's a free agent. But he's a free agent every year. And then they resign him. Well, they have a past couple of years. But pay attention to him. He's 30 years old as opposed to 33. And you're talking about for Frank. That was Frank Gore's basically his worst year.

Well, when he played a full, I'm just saying that is that a point for or against? He had his worst year. I think that's a point for him in the fact that he was bad, but he was still highly productive for fantasy purposes. So right now we have Frank Gore. All right, we got a matter of our consensus number 22.

And I'm only laughing because I apparently haven't hired in both of you. So that's great. That's fine. Matt Jones, another winner from the draft, Washington. We talked about this last week a little bit because we had our Washington Redskins time out. And talked about cousins, talked about Doxton, and talking about Matt Jones. He's a winner. Let's talk about the backfield in New England. Highly productive when a guy is in a role in that backfield. You've got also a very frustrating, difficult to predict week-to-week play. Nobody.