Week 3 Buy or Sell + Let’s Talk Trades, Jason Gets Snaked

I think he's going to have a really good week this week. Now this one is, is interesting. It's a dynasty trade. Oh, I didn't realize it was dynasty. From Facebook. And it's a James Connor for David Montgomery trade. In a dynasty league, would you trade James Connor for David Montgomery. So the dynasty factor. And I would. The dynasty fact, because you like, all James Connor questions, going back six months, you were, you were out. Well, and it's, it's tough because I don't want to just like, I'm not sitting here trying to.

There's no victory lap to be had. There's no, like, I've been out on James Connor because I don't believe that the truth of the first half of last year, you know, I don't think it's a reflection of his future production. And now you've got these situations of Mason Rudolph the rest of the year. So, you know, I know you like the talent of Connor. I think he's just overvalued. So in that case, I would like to cash on him before watching the Mason Rudolph experience with him just because of the risk factor. Yes, there's a lot of risk. There's a lot of.

Like the odds of Connor looking like the same dynasty asset he is today at the end of the year, to me, are lower than the odds of Montgomery's looking like a greater asset at the end of the year. So that's where I split the difference. I don't think you throw Connor out in all circumstances by any means, but that's just how I weigh in. Your risk assessment is right on.

We do know, though, this is Dynasty, so you're also factoring in next year as well. And Big Ben says he's coming back. The surgery that he's having, he should be able to recover from as a quarterback. He says I feel like I have a whole lot more to give. Yeah. So he said he's coming back to play out the contract. So next year still has to be factored in. And I would, and James Connor, he's still on the rookie deal. I can't imagine.

The Patriots, the Steelers moving on from James Conner when they have them for super duper cheap. And the way that Tomlin rolls with the Bell Cow running back, Tomlin could be a concern. Yeah, I mean, if the team tanks, do they get rid of Mike Tomlin at the end of the year? Because that changes the equation massively. They did give him a one-year extension recently. So I would doubt they move on, but that's something you have to factor in. I think I would take the David Montgomery side here because I don't think the two are super far apart.

in value. You've got two years of age gap between these two running backs. It doesn't bother me. Obviously, David Montgomery is on his year one rookie contract, and the investment was more that the Bears gave than the investment to... Not by much. Well, not by much if you're just taking pick for pick. But considering what they had in the draft class, what they did to use the pick on David Montgomery, I would take my opportunity.

All right. Traditionally, we see, I mean, we see the Steelers hang on to their head coaches for a long period of time. Right. It's interesting with Tomlin, you know, trying to put him in a position where, you know, he's never, he's not going to be this lame duck coach at some point coming up, but he's still through 2021. I tend to think he'll be around. I do. Even if they end up having to rebuild, you've got the built-in excuse losing your quarterback. Right. I don't know if they let him go or not. But.

Let's move on. Some Austin Echler questions. This is a really good topic. And we'll hit these before we do some Thursday night preview because, man, the temptation for fantasy owners, the difficulty of knowing do I cash in on what I have versus, you know, just writing it. You know, cashing in on James Connor early last year was not a benefit to fantasy owners in general. No. Because he would have felt real bad. Yeah. I mean, he sustained production throughout the season at a high value.

So, you know, what is the trade value of Austin Ackler? He's the number one running back in football through two weeks. We had some news this morning. You know, Melvin Gordon coming out and saying, hey, I'm going to play somewhere this year. Please don't forget about me. I'm Melvin Gordon. I'm going to play somewhere because it would be a waste of talent if I didn't. That's not news that I can bank on him thinking it would be a waste of talent if he's not out there.

The team has drawn a line in the sand. They've been willing to pay him $10 million. They've said, we're not negotiating your contract until the after the season. And it's, that's it. I mean, Jerry Jones isn't running the Los Angeles Chargers. And so there is no leverage here for Melvin Gordon. Yeah, the chargers are looking at him. Oh, it would be a waste of a waste of talent for a year. That's, that's a shame. I mean, it's a shame because we don't care. Melvin Gordon.

knows he has to come back. He's talked about it on Twitter. He's well aware that he wants to accrue the season so that he can hit free agency next year. He's going to come back. Now, it could be to if an injury happens to some team that is then willing to trade for Melvin Gordon, it could be for some, he can play somewhere else. Probably no team is going to come. So at some point he comes back, ruins the value of Echler. That doesn't mean Echler goes to zero, but certainly ruins his stardom.

But I'm still holding on to Echler. Here's a perfect example. I have Echler in our listener league. I was offered James Connor for Austin Echler and McCle Hardman. And I turned it down because Austin Echler hasn't been good. He's been great. Yes. I want the victories right now. I want to win and accumulate. Get me in the playoffs. I'll figure things out at a later time. I still think you have several weeks left.

of Austin Ackler. And so, I mean, his first two weeks are the best two first weeks of fantasy franchise history for the Chargers, including the Ledanyan Tomlinson years, including Melvin Gordon's first two weeks of any of his careers. He's the number one running back in football right now. I always like to give these reports. People want to know about our League of Record and maybe a lay of the land in terms of.

fab dollars and fab spending. That's why my eyes went really big earlier. Yeah. So in our $100 fab budget league, DeMarcus Robinson, $21. Somebody bought him for $21. Is that around where you expected or do you think that's, that's higher than I expected? I thought he would be maybe in the, if someone wanted to pay up, I thought of me the low teens. All right. Nelson Aguilar went for $7. Trying to buy a flex start this week. I had a bid in for $10 on Nelson Agalore.

before I traded for Zach Ertz. And then I didn't want to run Wince, Ertz, and Agalore out this week. But I think he's a really solid flex start. Will Disley, Seattle Tide-in went for $6. What do you think about that? Seems very appropriate with the tight-in landscape. I'll let you know I bet a dollar on him. I had a bid on him. I had a bid on him. Okay. I mean, that was pretty much the big spins in our league in terms of who was there on free agency. But I was curious about what DeMarcus Robinson would go for.

That's a pretty big chunk. You talk about buying wins. If you have a multiflex league or something of that nature or you are hurting at wide receiver and you can buy yourself two or three weeks, I don't blame anybody for doing that. The hard part about Tyree Kill is we don't know. We don't know when Tyree Kill is coming back. Is it in two weeks? Is it in a month? Well, and it's a strange injury. It's an injury where you're not coming back and, you know, it's a medical concern.

And so if there's risk of a medical problem happening, do they hold him out longer? Does he play differently for a couple weeks? I don't know the answer to those questions. But this team seems to have the luxury of waiting based on their performance. If he's out for four weeks. Four more? Yeah. If he's out like, let's say you get another four shots at DeMarcus Robinson. I'm not giving him the production of last week, but just the chance.

of DeMarcus Robinson going off. He is the wide receiver too. Look at the snap breakdown. Yeah. It's Sammy Watkins and DeMarcus Robinson and the McColl Hardman is the third. Yep. If we get four more weeks at that, then he could be worth the price that he went for in our league. We just don't know when Hill's coming back. Yeah. Yep. Thursday night breakdown. Please know. That may be the actual description of the event postmortem. Like you may just call it.

Do you remember the Thursday night breakdown? Oh, yeah. When we all broke down in tears because the score is six, five somehow. I don't even know how you score. I mean, a safety, a field goal. Marcus Mariotta versus Gardner Menshoe. It's a 40 over under in this game. The Titans go to Jacksonville. Jacksonville has all of the controversy around Jalen Ramsey who's expected to play for them this week.

They're 0 and 2. The Titans are one in one. I do expect the Titans to win this game. They're one and a half point road favorites. They're one and a half point road favorites. I expect them to win by two or three. You know what I mean? Like this is not a game I'm really excited about. Seven to nine. The only player, I mean, ultimately Derek Henry and Leonard Fernette need to be played. Yes. I think that's like end of list unless you are rostering Delaney Walker, in which case you're going to play your tight end.

But Gardner, Minshu, any of the wide receivers, I don't have the confidence level in D.J. Chark that others do or Chris Conley or any of his past catching weapons in this game. These are two really good defenses against two really bad quarterbacks. And there's supposed to be 20 mile an hour sustained wins and gusts up to 30 miles an hour. So, yeah, you're going to be running the ball, both sides.

a lot. So, you know, Fournette, Derek Henry, they might be okay. Low scoring game. Gross. Pound to the under. Yeah. I mean, I tend to agree with that, Mike. Do you have any other thoughts in this matchup that would be informative for fantasy owners? No. It's very, very difficult. Delany Walker is in. I have building confidence in DJ Chark moving forward as a flex play, but this is not the matchup. When you combine what the weather.

looks like it's going to be with the match. I don't want to be playing him this week. Yeah, I mean, he's a second year guy and he's making a step forward, but he's also not going to score 16 times this year. And right now, a lot of his hype is built. And he scored in week one, scored in week two. Chris Conley's been involved in the offense as well. And I don't think D.D. Westbrook is a slouch talent-wise. And so, you know, it's just not a situation where I'm excited. Now, if you had to start one,

wide receiver for Jacksonville this week. Like you are being forced to, Mike. It's Chark. You would start DJ Chark and just chase the first two weeks? I think you're chasing what you saw is the target distribution from Gardner. He's got a nice rapport with Gardner so far. Yeah. It would be Chark. I dropped D.D.D. I dropped his sweetie, D.D. Everywhere. I was so excited for D.D. this year. Those are those things that are such shames.

because Robbie Anderson situation right now. I was extremely confident in D.D.D. I mean, you know, there's certain players. It's all about probability and what you put the odds of being right or wrong on somebody. I had my odds very high that D.D. was going to be great. But that was on the basis of how Nick Foles plays quarterback. Nick Foles is gone. Gardner comes in, target someone else. Yeah, Chris Conley has 12 targets on the year.

Last week, DJ Chark had nine targets. Conley had five. So, yeah, that's why. Charg makes sense. I'm just going to chase the targets. It's not, doesn't feel great. But if you're saying you're forced to play a Jacksonville Jaguar, one, what are you doing in that league? That's, that's a league that sounds very bad for your health. Marcus Marriott is six and two against Jacksonville in his career. Four straight wins, but has averaged 142 passing yards per game.

in the last five against Jacksonville. That's pretty high for him. It's not going to be pretty. A reminder, take your Thursday night players out of the flex if you have them. It sounds like in this game we're pretty much advising, please don't flex or regular play any of these players outside of the running backs. I am a really, really, really, I'll say this. I'm a really, really big Derek Henry fan rest of the season. That's fair. I'm really, really into the Derek Henry experience at this point.

This week he's RB 16 going up against this Jags defense. But if you just listen to the way, you know, the beat riders around the team, the way the head coach speaks, what they believe the recipe for success is, and what the statistical evidence is that when they give him enough work, you know, they win the ball game. And if you listen to their head coach this past week, talked about the fact that, you know, they need to be better on third down so that Derek Henry can go from.

you know, 16, 17 carries to 20 to 25. It's rare to have a situation where you've got a guy big enough, strong enough, a focus in the offense enough to say, we want to actively give him 25 carries a game. And that's the situation for Derek Henry. And if you look at the target utilization or the target difference between him and Dionne Lewis, I think they have the exact same amount of catches on the year. The targets aren't that different. They're actually throwing Derek and Henry the ball at least a little bit, which is...

Something? Yeah, five total targets. Yeah, I mean, but what is Dionne Lewis at? I will pull him. Yeah, I mean, they're not throwing the ball to the running right that much. They're not throwing the ball that much. Deon Lewis has five total targets. Yeah, so it's just not a situation. I'm in on Henry for the rest of season. Maybe this is a week where he underwhelms and you can go buy him. I don't know. I'm in on these defenses. Go ahead and fire up your DSTs on Thursday night football. Well, yeah, for this week. Yeah. What happens to Jacksonville's D if Jalen goes bye-bye?