Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, FULL TILT! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/21

confidence level on Drake London to bounce back because, you know, he had a breakout performance and then, of course, last week happened to for 24. Yeah, I mean, my confidence, Drake London is 50%. You know, I could see this game. Has it been there every week, 50%? No, there's been weeks where I've been very confident. Like when we put them in the Tampa matchup. The Tampa matchup. Is he more of an indoor wide receiver? He's more of an at home indoor good matchup type of wide receiver. This is some of those, but it's not a great matchup. I do think this game hits the over. I think there will be enough points scored where I'm not moving away from Drake London. I think he is a fine enough start. He's just not, it's not a perfect, you know, stars aligning type of matchup. Kyle Piss, Johnny Smith, not messing around. I assume. No.

So Linden and Robinson, you guys have confidence in. On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Taylor, we expect them to be back out on the field. We don't know if Moss will be back with him. The early report, Moss was going to try to play through the injury. John the Taylor playing through injury. Trace Herman and Tyler Goodson are on the roster as well. Yeah, as of now, it seems like Jonathan Taylor is going to be the entire backfield. Like he'll go back to being the dude. He's practicing in full. Zach Moss isn't practicing. Let me put something to the test for you then with the running back position if you have Jonathan Taylor. John and Taylor, Mike or Ty Chandler? Taylor's, I want to mention it. That's Taylor for me. Okay. Taylor's matchup is against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is fifth against the running back position this year. But you will go right back to Taylor? Yeah, there's like. That sucks. It's just having. That sucks for me. Yeah. It's having more confidence in the guy with the contract with the backup out. So I mean.

The situations have some parallels, but I'm more secure and Taylor. All right. Michael Pittman, we're still monitoring whether he'll make it back due to the vicious concussion. But being limited on Wednesday, that's at least the pathway. I would be very comfortable with Josh Downs in the absence of Michael Pittman. Because you should be. I'm in agreement that you should be, but he has vanished. Three targets, three targets, five. Yeah. And I mean, especially if Michael Pittman's out, who are you going to throw to? Probably Jonathan Taylor, man. Yeah, it probably is. With that stupid thumb, please don't be able to catch two. I think if Michael Pittman sits, there's going to be a real temptation to play Josh Downs or Alec Pierce or, you know, you go, well, they've got to throw the ball. I really.

personally do not want to play that game. You say he's vanished, but he hasn't really been there for a long time. I'm saying that the targets have vanished. Well, yeah. I mean, so in week 12, you had this weird 13 target game. Still wasn't a good game. Ended up with 43 yards. But if you look at his targets, 3353.1, I mean, he's not, he's not someone that I'm starting even just because Pittman's gone. I'm not going to go, well, I need to put him in then. That's my stance. The Colts defense, I think, is in play this week. They're fourth in fantasy points per game. Atlanta, Taylor Heineke, no, he's a chucker. They will intercept the ball in this game. I think that's the end of the discussion in this one other than just whether Gardner fits the streaming quarterback. He does. I actually think Taylor.

Heineke fits the streaming category for me. He's not, he's. Nick Mullins are these two guys? These two guys. I would go. I'd go Mullins. Oh, gosh. Over both of them. Mullins is, is Detroit. That's nice. With Jefferson and Addison. Yeah, I would lean Mullins. The Seattle Seahawks at 7 and 7 take on the 5 and 9 Tennessee Titans. The draft King Sportsbook line, Seattle on the road, minus. Two and a half. The over under is 41.5. Seahawks, they're sitting at eighth in the NFC, still fighting for a playoff spot. We've seen the Tennessee stout, perfect run defense be a lot weaker over the last month, five games. And they lost an all-pro defensive linemen, which is impacting that. They've allowed 95 rushing yards per game in three of four. So...

You know, we saw Singletary dominate them last week. Kenneth Walker? Full confidence. He just was dominant against the Eagles. Kenneth Walker is a great play. And you may have got the little alert of Kenneth Walker moves from healthy to questionable because he didn't practice on Wednesday. It was listed as a shoulder. But you have beat reporters saying, I'm not reading into it. I'm just, it's going to be a Wednesday day of rest for a running back who. just carried the ball a ton a couple days ago. This is a Tennessee defense that is also very weak in the passing game. You have Metcalf Lockett and Jackson Smith and Jigba who are all going to play with Gino Smith this week. Smith coming back from the injury. Are you playing all three guys? I think you can. I think you can play all three. I would order them D.K. Jackson Locket. Oh, really? I'd still go. I'd stay in the normal order. I'd go D.K. Locket, Jason.

Okay. Nine targets last week for Lockett that turned into just three catches with Drew Locke. They were not on the same page. Yeah, they were bad targets and there was some shenanigans that the defense was getting away with against Lockett. On the other side, Derek Henry with the disaster last week, Tajay Spears has been involved, but it's not meant great things. And then Traylon Brooks came out last week. I mean, he's been back for two weeks, but he came back last week to some opportunities. DeAndre Hopkins. You know, he had a kind of terrible game, but it was like he was a good throw from an 82-yard touchdown in that game where Will Levis underthrew him when he was wide open on the backside of the defense. He had nine targets, just caught three of them, had another drop. It was kind of an off game for him. Seattle's been exceptionally vulnerable in the passing game. I mean, you have a backup quarterback probably. There is a pretty good. You either have a hobbled.

quarterback right or you've got a backup quarterback you're talking which one is which which one is which you either have a hurt high ankle sprained one week will levis or you have a benched right benched close to retirement ryantonahill yeah i look i i i i still have some optimism around hopkins this week he he gets to double digit targets yeah we even with tannahill because of the way this game flow is going to likely be i would be looking at it with the opportunity that, you know, this team's going to be down. They're going to have to throw the football. Seattle is not a – they give up 31 points a game to opposing wide receivers. It's like break up that 31 across the receiver core.

I think Hopkins is a fairly safe floor. I just don't have the ceilings there this weekend. What if I remind you that through the first six games, right? Tanna Hill was averaging 188 yards. No, I know. And two total passing touchdowns. It was a long time ago. Yeah. In a galaxy far, far away. To start to start the season. He lost his job because of it. I know. He played through the by week. And Hopkins through that stretch was the wide receiver 30, 61, 59, 48, and 82. So he did not, you know, he pretty much crushed you almost all those weeks with Tanna Hill. So I don't have the same optimism, but I have not looked into matchups with DeAndre Hopkins nearly as much as Andy who was making a close decision on Hopkins. He's diving so deep. It would be great if I could bury Hopkins as an option. I just don't believe it. I don't believe that as a reality. I'm there with you of I think that Hopkins is in play. He's just,

a he is a decision of your options your other options could be better okay so who would you start mike between like in the flex hopkins or james connor i've i had already told him i would go connor and connor or singletary i'll go connor okay i hope he goes hopkins now that i'm singletary and you're connor there's just no way to get it right guys oh that is you got a 33% chance getting it right just make the right decision man To be honest with you, I've gone through all three and really felt like I've had moments where I'll put one in and I'm like, he's definitely the guy. And then like later in the day, it's Devin Singleton, Jason, there was a strong announcement walking to the lunch table. Singletary's in. He's locked. He's locked in. I did miss that. And then Mike goes, Mike, all he had to do is go.

Okay. And that was enough to put the, well, maybe he's not super locked. He's locked. Maybe the lock is in the, it's in the, it's in the, the hands, but it's not locked down. You sure about that? You sure about that? That's why. I think it'll be Singletary. All right. But it, yes, Hopkins should be in play. It's a, it's, it's, uh, it's not at close to a guarantee. Here's what, what I'll say too is, I mean, and we give this advice, I'm going to follow up myself. Like, you've got two Saturday games, right? you've got a Thursday game. And so you're going to get more information in terms of the way your matchup is proceeding. Like if Alvin Kamara comes out and has a 25-point performance tonight, you know, Singletary and Connor become much safer options. Like DeAndre Hopkins could go out and do what he did five of the first six weeks of Tannahill and be a two-point guy, whereas it's very unlikely that Connor and Singletary end up in that zone. So I'm hoping for a good game so it makes that decision easier. All of you should be doing that with your matchups. If you have...

you know, Cup and Puka and Camara and those players that are going into night's matchup, let that be a somewhat, you know, maybe a filter for the way you play your players on Sunday. And if you have Saturday matchups. Yeah. It's good advice. Also, it's also a way to kick the decision down the road. Also, really, really important with all the games on separate days, very important to set your lineup. in locking your positional players. Huge. The earlier they play, make sure they are in the running back or the wide receiver spot. Don't let someone start in your flex on a Thursday or a Saturday. It takes your opportunity and your ability to make new, better informed decisions away come Sunday and Monday. Yeah, it's not just flex. It's not like moving them out of the flex just due to injury. It's moving them out of the flex just due to opportunity. So that's a good, good reminder.

Derek Henry confidence this week, one to 100. 69. Nice. He has been, it's been fantastic or it's been a fantastic disaster. Like that's, that's it for Derek Henry. The matchup is fine. You have Seattle the last six weeks, 30th against running backs when adjusting for schedule. So he's in. If you happen to make it through. Like I made it through with Derek Henry. It was, it felt really, really bad. And seeing that feels really bad to move forward into the semis. But just look at the three weeks before that. Don't go further back. Or are you going to freak yourself out? Just look at those three. Well, Papa Josh has Henry if anyone wants to know. So he'll probably be fine. He probably will be. He's the running back eight on the course of the season. The recency bias of this last really bad game is.

is not the right approach. I mean, you should be starting Derrick. What was he in week 13 and 14 in terms of fantasy finish? The running back three and the running back 10. Okay. And those were weeks that Tajay Spears was also in the top 20 on those weeks. So when they were running the football well, it benefited both back. It's basically does, yeah, does the team score? Are they in the game? Are they up? if they are, you know, I mean, that's... That's not going to be the case. They're going to be getting whooped. You think so? It's only a two and a half point line. Yeah, but they're the home team. So, yeah, I think it'll be an utter beatdown. And Tanny Hill at quarterback, I don't know. I think that's worse than Levis. It's do they get inside the five? Yeah, fair enough. Last week, Will Levis stole a touchdown from us. So us on the, you know, Derek Henry's team.

So it could have been salvaged. All right. But it just didn't go that way. Sorry, Andy. Yeah. Detroit, 10 and 4, Minnesota 7 and 7. Draft King Sportsbook line, Detroit minus 3 over and under is 47. Huge game. Playoff implications. If the Lions win the ball game, they clinch the NFC North, that would be their first division title since what year? I know the answer. Oh, man. Mike, do you know the answer? I mean, it's got to be like. Give me a guess. Can I? It's 2023 right now. I'm going to say the, I'm going to say the George Bush administration. The original. Oh, wait, the W. No, not W. It's 1993. So I believe that way. Am I close? I don't know. Is that Bush? I think that. That might be. That was Clinton. That's Clinton. Was that Clinton? Yeah.

All right. Can we get anybody in the building? Kyle jumped in and said Clinton. Oh, it is Clinton. All right. I go to him. I mean, that was really close. It was 1990. That's really close. These teams play again in a couple of weeks. You've got a dome game. You've got the playoffs on the line. You've got Nick Mullins, who was not afraid to throw the ball down the field with an 8.4 yards per attempt last week. You've got elite weapons in Addison and Jefferson. I know he got lucky. Oh, he got. But you know what? I'd rather a backup quarterback willing.

Be willing to take those chances for the sake of my offensive weapons. Like if you bring in a guy and they're just dinking and dunking it and playing it in the screen game, that takes Justin Jefferson's opportunities away. And the nice thing is you want your backup quarterback coming in to be aggressive when you have great weapons. Bush's term ended in 93. I'm taking a dub. You've got to take a dub. Sorry. Sorry. Go on. The, well. I guess it's not really a dub. Oh, that's a dub. We got to look at the date. I think they're probably clenched post election. Yeah. I just, wait, election's not in 93 though, right? No, that would. Oh, it would have been in 92. The election would have been 92. Yeah. So I think, I think Bush was probably the like, in January making that transition in 93. Yeah. Yeah. So you do not. So Clinton was totally like at the White House. Yeah. Yeah. So you got it. I'm sorry. Sorry, buddy.

I already took the W guys. We're going to take that W back. But the point is these are really good weapons. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hawkinson, like, throw the ball and give them the chance to make plays. That's what happened last week. And obviously, Addison was a monster if you had to get backed into starting him. Congratulations. Are you starting him again this week in a matchup that looks perfect? Like Mullen seems like a really good streamer when you've got these weapons. I'd play him over Brownie. Me too. All of the streaming guys, like I pivoted earlier when I said, I think Heineke is a good start or Minchu. All those guys, I would play Mullins over them. I'm still nervous about Addison because I'm nervous about second options with a backup quarterback. Hawkinson and Jefferson, I have more confidence in than Addison. Ty Chandler, I do think, I think that the range of outcomes is more severe than you would think. No, I'm in agreement.

Okay, because the Lions defense, man, they shut the run down and they could be well ahead in this game. They are favored on the road. They play well in domes. Yes. I'm not like the floor for Ty Chandler, it's very low. I would not argue with that, but it's I see the range of outcomes that I'm seeing for Ty Chandler is more of a, he's a good running back two start who has ceiling. So I'm just, I'm playing him. I'm getting them in. All right. On the other side, golf. We okay here? Oh, my gosh. Mike, are we okay here? No. I mean, Mike was sitting there. What was the decision you were trying to make on golf this week? It was the same as last. Flacco? Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, or Jake Browning. I just can't imagine not taking golf in a game they're favored in a dome. And that's kind of where we are right now. The Vikings on the course of the season are averaging 12.8 fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Golf. Golf has... And they're at home. Has plenty of games recently where he just sucks. Yeah. Wow. Man, you can never put too much confidence in Jared Goff. I... Like, he'll pick your kids up from school on time one time. But if you ask him to do it the whole week, you're playing with fire. I'm pivoting. I told you earlier I think I would go golf. I think I would go Flacco. You're just spinning Mike. No, no, no. I think it's... I think it's the right call. It's hard after what Goff just did, five passing touchdowns against Denver, the number one quarterback on the week. Jake Browning just had a big game against Minnesota. If you look at the course of the season, golf has been really bad, the vast majority of times.

His ceiling is good, but his consistency is a C right now. It's worth noting that Jared Goff against the Blitz and against Cover 2, which is what Minnesota is the highest in the NFL in both. His splits are really bad. When you put the pressure on him, you can see some of those golfful throws. And so it is a debate. It's a debate because it's made harder by the fact golf had such a big game last week. He threw five touchdowns. Like if golf had a bad game. In a difficult matchup. If golf had a bad game last week. I think every single person would be benching him right now because he was on a streak of nonstop bad games. It's true, but the hard part is, is it's like, who's more likely to throw three touchdown passes? Joe Flacco or Jared Gough? Probably Flacco. Oh, really? Yeah. Okay. Well, then that's, I mean, to me, I was golf, so I thought that that would. Goff has thrown three touchdowns three times. Yeah, and Flacco's, what, he's played three? One out of three games. He had three? Yeah. All right. I thought so.

It's a very difficult decision. Let's see. Joe Flacco last, or two weeks ago was three touchdowns against the Jags. All right. Jamir Gibbs, David Montgomery, play them with fear and trembling, but they should be able to be okay. I'm on Ross St. Brown. You know, you play him as well. You play him for sure. I did find it interesting. I saw some statistics from a good friend of the show, Scott Barrett, that he was. I don't remember the exact, you know, what he found, but he was saying it projects to be potentially a really bad game for Amman Raw. Okay. So maybe that. You're going to start him no matter what. It was more for DFS when he was bringing it up. But it's worth highlighting when it comes to the conversation of Jerry Gough. Like if this is a very tough, difficult situation and scheme for his number one target, that obviously affects the quarterback.

All right, Sam Leporta. I would probably play that guy. Yeah, you're going to play him. The matchup stinks. That's good. Is there any chance he could just suck? There is, yeah. Oh, sweet. Sorry, everybody. I wonder, guess who has Sam Leporta? Evil incarnate. All right. Anything else from this game you want to discuss? Just Kyle was following up on what you were talking about, Jay, is in cover two. Amin Ra averaging a meager 0.74 yards per route run on a 20% target turn, 54 routes against cover two. The truth is, is like your perception of the Minnesota defense from years gone by should be gone. Yes. They're a completely different defense. And they were like they're a shocking team. They seemed like they were just selling. Like over the offseason, they felt like this is a team that's going to trust the process. Yeah.

And it was, no. And Brian Flores is like, no, let's make the playoffs. Yeah, and then they have turned out a fantastic defense. Do you have a name at the top of your head for most surprising team in the NFL this year? Most impressively surprising? Oh, I mean, besides Houston? To me, like the culture at the top of my list. I think the culture, maybe number one. Yeah, they should be very high. But I would, yeah, I'd stick with Houston. Yeah, I mean, those are the two that I thought of. Not Minnesota. No, I don't think so. Minnesota's coming into the year, I thought they were going to be good. They're surprising when they started losing games to start season, lost their quarterback, and then turned the ship around. That's surprising. Yeah, Cousins, Hall, Dobbs, Mullins, four quarterbacks. After Cousins, they've just had garbage quarterback. The Washington commanders are four and ten. They take on the five and nine New York Jets. A couple teams commiserating on disgusting seasons.

Drive King Sportsbook line. Jets minus three. The overrenders 37. Kyle described this matchup as two dumpster fires fulfilling their duties of playing 17 football games. So we didn't mention it because it's really, it's just buzzworthy. I don't know how newsworthy. But Aaron Rogers was elevated to the team and said he's not going to play. Which he will not be playing. So he's taking up a roster spot. Like what? Well, he'll go away again, right? If he doesn't play in that 21-day window, if he's not active. No, they activated him, I thought. Am I misremembering that? I don't think so, but maybe I missed that piece of news. Kyle, double check on that. Yeah, the headline there is that he's not going to come back. There was a good article in the ringer about the fact that like him stringing them along with the.

possibility of coming back might have been what prohibited the Jazz from ever making a commitment to another quarterback, which makes a lot of logical sense to me where you don't want to disrupt this guy who wants, you know, you don't want to make Aaron Rogers mad. We all know that. And the fact of the matter is, is if they had just declared them out for the season, maybe they make a move to sign a Carson Winst or sign a trade for a James Winston and just commit to somebody. He was activated from IR so he could. practice. Yeah, okay. So that was the purpose. Perhaps if they don't activate him, then he can't even keep practicing with the team. Maybe that's what it is. I believe he'll basically go back. That makes more sense. And then, you know, so because you're going to have, you've got Zach Wilson in this matchup that is not practicing due to concussion. If he doesn't play, it'll be Trevor Simeon. My confidence level on Garrett Wilson goes down tremendously. We discussed it yesterday. Me personally, Garrett Wilson is a play with Zach Wilson. He is not a play with Trevor Simeon.

That's my opinion. You guys were softer on that. You're more comfortable with Wilson. The matchup ends. It's hard not to see your side of the argument with how bad Trevor Simeon has been incredibly limited and not a full week of practice, like preparing that Trevor Simeon is going to be the starter. So that's the glimmer of hope. Where are you at? So like your Hopkins confidence. versus your Garrett Wilson confidence, should you be making the decision on those two? Yeah, I mean, I think they're, I see the, I see the Titans being able to have some success in the passing game when they have a deficit. I don't know if I see that with Simeon. I see short drives and Breast Hall is in play because he's everything they have. But I don't know. It's a nerve-wracking, it's nerve-wracking to start any jet. Yeah.

I agree with that. I mean, this is a game that has a 37 point over under. So yes, the jets are at home and yes, they're favored. But it's a really, really low over under. And I don't think either of us or any of us expect the jets to come out here and score a bunch of points. No, I mean, their line is 20 right now. So that that's not terrible. I mean, obviously we're, we'd love it to be 30. But I, you know, the expectation is that they win this game. They score enough points. So briefs to me is in despite last week being bad. And again, I'm not completely off Garrett Wilson. I do think with, you know, a full week of practice not coming in as the backup. Also, the Dolphins last week just completely, their pass rush just torched this team. I mean, they couldn't. The defenders got to the quarterback at the same time the ball did. There was nothing they could do. And this matchup.

The commanders got rid of their pass rush, and since then, they've just been the worst defense in the league, the best one to target. If you look on the course of the season when you adjust for schedule, 32nd against quarterbacks, 31st against running backs, 31st against wide receivers, 30th against tight-in. So if Trevor Simeon can get it done against anyone, it's here. So I am not... I don't see Garrett Wilson as someone I have to bench. On the commander side, the jets are vulnerable to fantasy running backs. Brian Robinson, D&P again on Wednesday. That's not a good sign. For Brian Robinson? No. I'm in agreement. He's been out so long that you would expect if he's going to be back that he'd be out on the practice field. We'll obviously monitor that. Yeah, but moving the conversation to Antonio Gibson had five targets last week. Nope.

Okay. No, I'm not disagreeing with the stats. Sorry. I'm making a comment on the fact that you saw a ton of work from Roderick. Chris Rodriguez had 10 carries last week. Who else was in the backfield too? Because somebody else was back there constantly. Chris Rodriguez had 10 carries. Antonio Gibson had four carries this last week. Now, Gibson played more snaps and is more involved in the passing game. Chris Rodriguez isn't. Was it Derek Gore? No, you had Jonathan Williams. Oh, is that who was back there? Jonathan Williams took 22% of the snows. Yeah, that was the shocker to me. It's like you spent a part of the game wondering if Antonio Gibson was injured. So I know that the Jets can be beaten on the ground. Are you okay with Gibson as a flex? Yeah, I mean, I think as a flex, it's okay, but it's scary. And I'd be benching every wide receiver. I'm not coming. Terry McLaurin had his first good game of the season. I'm not going back to that well against the Jets. There's no way I'm playing a wide receiver. Over the course of the season and good matchups, you have a hard time deciding.