Fantasy Football - Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates - Podcast for 6/3

He was the number one fantasy producer during his active weeks. He was the number one fantasy wide receiver. And then you've got McMillan and you have Igbuka and you have Otten and you have these other guys. I just feel like the case. Oh, and by the way, you have slightly a bit of an offensive line. Like he took fewer sacks than Joe Burrow did. They both fumble the same amount of times. He threw more picks. And again, I'm not saying he is Joe Burrow. I'm just saying the arguments that are being made against Baker are not made against Burrow. And I don't think that's fair because Burroughs a pocket passer that's going to run for 200 to fewer yards. And Baker's going to go for three to 400. I would disagree with that of, and we'll start off. We all like Baker. Yeah. I think that he is a good pick. He's okay if you want to take the discount. Baker, like Joe Burrow was at 200 rushing yards, which he's done two times in his career. Baker ran two fewer times last year than he needed two years ago.

and put up over 200 more rushing yards. I think that was more of a, a, uh, just a fluky thing for Baker. So I'm, I'm not necessarily in on the rushing, but I, I'm in on that he can, he can throw in the 30s. It's an ADP argument to me too, right? Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. 21.9 fancy points were getting for Burrow last year, 21.5 for Baker last year. And I get to draft players in the fourth round like Marvin Harrison and combine them with Baker. If that was my, like, I'm probably not taking those guys either of them. I'm probably just going to wait a little bit longer, but I'd rather have two rounds of value because the guys I'm getting in the fourth round at other positions are better. Yeah, I understand everything you're saying. When I said I disagree with the historical touchdown rate, I think that is probably the most important thing to look at with a pocket passers. What is their historical touchdown rate? With Joe Burrow, you know, since his rookie season, he's at 5.9% over the last four years.

This is not, you know, was last year higher than it will be this year? Sure, probably. But he is always someone that is throwing a ton of touchdowns, always, a year after year after year after year. Three fully healthy years for Joe Burrow. Yeah, he's the lowest. He's been at 34 passing touchdown. Right. And so whereas on the Baker side, when I say I disagree, what I disagreed with was specifically that, let's just look at the last year in Tampa Bay. He was at 4.9% touchdowns. That's really good. That's above league average. That's solid. And that was with that same team. His average in Tampa Bay is 6.1. Well, that's because you're including last year 7.2. Which is completely fair to include. To get an average. Yeah. That's how you get an average in Tampa Bay. Okay. You don't just count the bad year and not the good year. So the average is 6.1. I'm talking about league average is 4.5 and we see all the time. We see this every single year. We're going to see it this coming year with Lamar Jackson. We.

whoever has that crazy high, like seven and a half or higher percent touchdown percentage, it always regresses. It doesn't matter if it's, you know, if it's Peyton Manning or, you know, anyone. They always, Aaron Rogers would. So Joe Burroughs is going to regress is what you're saying? Yes. It doesn't matter. Yes, Joe Burroughs is going to regress. They're both going to regress. That's where I look at, okay, well, then what are they regressing to? What is their mean? And so Joe Burroughs mean is much higher. Well, Joe, if you do your strategy and throw out the most recent year, his mean is 5.1. Joe. Joe. You're saying over the last three years. And Baker was 4.8 in Cleveland. So it's just not that different. Sure. And you don't, I just feel like we are really enamored with Joe Burrow. And so you're paying, if Joe Burrow doesn't deliver that season and that round, which he definitely couldn't, it definitely could go the other way. Do you worry? Do you worry about Joe Burrow this year?

Like, are you willing to draft him where he's going in drafts? No. Okay. Then, no, I'm not. That feels intellectually honest. Yeah, no, I don't think I am. Because I don't think, I don't think you're going up. I don't think any of us would think he's going up. No. So, you know, his career highs 34 and 35 touchdowns. So like, and then two injured years. So the injury, like the durability factor doesn't even get, I didn't even talk about it. Like Baker is resilient and never gets hurt and takes a ton of sacks and never gets hurt. Joe Burroughs missed two seasons. Yeah. So it's just, it's one, it's a conversation I think is interesting. And again, it's more about that conversation between those two than it is about any disparity. Me and you, like we have. Yeah, we're not that far. We're not that far off. I mean, I think I have them for more passing yards than both of you guys because I'm giving, like I love the structure of the offense. This was, um,

They had a top five quarterback, a top 15 running back, another top 24 running back, a top 12 wide receiver in Evans, and Godwin was the wide receiver two, I said one before, number two in fantasy before injury, and then a top 12 tight end. I bet it's just rushing. That was the only team to do it since the 2012 Patriots, to have those stats for those positions. Over the last decade, 48 quarterbacks have had 30 or more passing touchdowns and a 5.5% touchdown rate or higher. 40 of the 48 decreased in touchdown rate the fall. Oh, he's not throwing for 41. Yeah. That's why I have him for 30. But 30 somehow ended up at 6. Yeah, I think the... Because when you move beyond the top tier of guys, it's just kind of like... The issue is like two years ago, he had a great season. He looked good as, you know, like you talked about. You were in on him coming into this year because he was...

really good in Tampa two years ago. Two years ago he was the quarterback 10. Well, everyone was afraid of the offense coordinator change. Yeah, but I mean, he was the quarterback 10, which is a good season. He had a very good season. But at the quarterback 10 for where he's being drafted, that's the issue is like if you're, if you're drafting him at quarterback six and he finishes a quarterback 10, you know, and his ADP, he's not a double digit round quarterback right now. Based on what he did last year, people are drafting Baker much higher than, you know, we would hope to get a deal on him. Yeah, I mean, you're right.

And so that's my whole word. What's wild is if you look at passing attempts the last two years in Tampa Bay, I hadn't seen this till just now. 566s last year, 570 this year, okay? So literally almost the exact same amount of attempts. 364 completions last year, 407. Completed 7%. Far more accurate. And his yards per attempt was almost a full yard higher. So, yeah, I mean, you've got arguments where, like, you know, Evans, big playability, does that diminish? But I don't know. i don't know i think it's a fun one to talk about yeah baker's always fun to talk about but let me just say this i don't like talking negatively about baker because i love i love baker yeah no i didn't feel good no and and i know this one's not gonna feel good no i hate this even more because this sucks i i saw this name pop up for the show and i said um i knew i was talking about baker and i'm like oh who are you gonna be talking about jason and and he says i'm gonna be talking about lad mcconkey on the show and i said well

oh great just another sure jason benedict arnold another jason loves lad mcconkey argument i can't wait can't wait to hit play on that and then i see this like i got him a nine mike you got him in nine yeah jason has his little lad down at a little spot outside the top 15 at wide receiver he's got him at 16 so jason as much as it hurts explain yourself yeah it i mean i love lad macaque i went back and i watched film on Ladd, and he is so doggone good. If they, if their goal was to have Ladd-McConkie lead the league in receptions, even in yardage, I think they could do it if his body can, you know, keep up with it. He's obviously a little bit more undersized. The issue I have here is team identity. This is a team with Harbaugh and G-Row that want to establish it.

They want to come out and run the ball. You know, last year to start the season, you had J.K. Dobbins looking awesome, right? Comes out 10 for 135 on the ground, 17 for 131 on the ground. It looked like this was a running team. And we talk a lot about Justin Herbert's splits between that first month of the season and then the rest of the season. And for just cause, because he sucked the first four games of the season. They weren't throwing the ball a lot. They were running the ball a lot. JK one leg, J.K. Dobbins over here, the gas ran out. After those two weeks, it was like, okay, you know, he doesn't have it. They weren't able to run the ball successfully with him and Gus Edwards. And so they had to turn the ball over to Justin Herbert is the best option for them. And they did and they had success. And they could definitely continue that this year to great success because Herbert is great. The issue is, I don't think they're going to have to, and I'm worried that they're going to choose not to.

And that they're going to, look, they went out and got Najee Harris. That is right off the bat. That is a humongous upgrade over Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. But then they went out and got Omarian Hampton. They spent a first round pick on that. They've improved their offensive line. Like this is a team that's saying, hey, what we want to do we weren't able to do last year. Let's go do it better. Let's run the ball more. They've got a good defense. This is one of those issues where now I'm looking and. If they're going to be winning these games and running the clock out, Harbaugh does not need to get the passing stats up. He wants to get the Ws. And I think they're going to get a lot of Ws by running the ball. Then you add in the fact that you add Trey Harris. I know I'm pre-NFL draft. I was very high on Trey Harris. I think he was my wider receiver four in the pre-NFL draft. They spend a day two pick on him. They also brought in Mike Williams. So there's more target competition.

and I believe there will be less volume. So that's my main argument. This is not a talent or a capabilities thing. I mean, if you look at the second half last season with Ladd-McConkie, I'm sure one of you have those numbers pulled up. I got them up right now. Say it because I get hot bothered. I can mention from week 11 on and tell you he was 109 for 16-107. Oh, yeah. But I can also tell you that I remember like my, I love the film. We were off-season Ladd-McConkie brothers. Then he goes to this team and. I was pretty down on him for the first half of the year because basically the equation was this. Lad gets in the end zone you're happy if he doesn't get in the end zone. You're Matt. And you can look at the first 10 games of the year. That's exactly the case. If he didn't get into the end zone, you're talking about you're finishing at wide receiver 64 or 55 or 49 or 37 or 36 or 43, it was irrelevant. It was only that last stretch, which, you know, weeks 11 through 18, when they needed to transition the offense, when they didn't have that foundational running game.

that he could give you a fantasy week regardless of a touchdown, which he did, often, 123 yards, 17 yards, 87, 94, 95. And so, I mean, it's compelling because if there's a question about identity, are you taking him over T. McBride? No. Are you taking him over Josh Jacobs? Probably not. What about T. Higgins? J.S.N. Kyron? Yeah. So, I mean, that's the decision you will have to make about Lat. And that's where I've got him lower than where he's being drafted. I've got his ADP lower. Now, that's, we're not making the bowl case here, or you guys might. Obviously, he's, he was a rookie. He finished at 12 as a rookie. And now coming into year two, I've seen the training videos. He's looking awesome. So maybe he levels up and becomes that Keenan for.

Herbert that was basically on a per game basis like the wide receiver one or two in fantasy. But I've got his projections almost the almost exactly what they ended up being last year. Yeah, Mike and I have significantly more targets. Yeah. Then you currently have projected, which is would match an identity argument where like we both have him pushing a hundred catches. Yeah. And you're in the 85 range. And if he if he does what he did last year where he finished as the wide receiver 12 last year was a week. year for wide receivers like 10 through 20 fantasy wise. Like if you'd take his points that he scored last year and you look at what that would have been the previous four years, he would have been the wide receiver 15, wide receiver 14, wide receiver 16, wide receiver 14. Right. So, and that's where I've got him. I've got him at wide receiver 16. I think he's a great player. I would love to have him on my team. But where he's being drafted, I think he's being drafted to level up and I'm worried he's going to level out. Well, it's compelling in the sense that we know you.

Love him unconditionally. And you still were willing to let the truth come out in your statistics. It hurt. Mike doesn't like it. No, no, I certainly do not. I like Ladd a lot this year. Those are all extremely fair arguments to me. Of the guy, especially when you, Nogie plus Hampton in the first round, like that's a really strong signal by this team of this is who we want to be. Greg Roman offenses are always at the top. J.K. Dobbins is still hanging around. He might be on the roster, too. There is that. For me, a lot of it is, you know, where his ADP is, which is at least where I'm seeing right now is like fringe second, third, all right? He was 1,1507 touchdowns. That's what he did as a rookie. Now, obviously, a couple of fewer games here, Malik Neighbors, 1,2007.

Brian Thomas, 1282, 10, so far more touchdowns. But those two guys, they're going way high. They're going in the first round. I think it's wild. The fact that Ladd hasn't been steamed up to like an early second round pick. These are the best bets in fantasy football. Rookies who break out and finish as a top 24 wide receiver their first year, they are like the odds of the bet hitting. returning value on ADP is so incredibly high with and Ladd gives you ceiling where the other guy the other two guys do not so I just I am loving drafting that does it make a difference if the Chargers are still tweeting out cool videos of Justin Herbert connecting with Quentin Johnson does that doesn't make they are still that makes me feel even better they are still sending those videos out and I'm seeing them any

I'm not even joking when I say this because you will not believe me because you haven't seen the tape. He caught it. No, I don't believe. Quinn and Johnson caught it. There's too much AI now. AI videos. You don't know that that was real. Did you run that? Did you do an AI check? Yeah. Come on. You got to zoom in on the faces. He also had robot hands. Yeah. You got got. All right. We'll take a break and come back with Mike's explain yourself candidate. All right. Michael. Yes. There is a player out there. He might have a tattoo of this guy by now. That apparently you love. He will never give up on. You will not give up on him. You absolute killer ranking on him. Consistency. This is a player. Look at that. Last year consistency rank of an F with 23% of his games being good. Yeah, well, it stands for friendship for me. He, uh, he finished as the wide receiver 46. Yeah. Missing only two games. He did if you just go points per game. He got eight of them.

Yeah, he did. He got eight points per game. He got any of those points. And Jalen Waddle. Yeah. You have ranked as the wide receiver 28. Mm-hmm. Like I said, real. That's really not that. It's not that crazy, but it's, you know, it's a whole lot better than he did last year. Also better than he did the year prior to that. So coming off of two really down years for Jalen Waddle. You've associated yourself with him. Yeah. Tell us why you believe. Well, I would, I would. I'd start by saying two years ago, he was over 1,000 with four touchdowns and 14 games played. So he was on his way to having a very fine fantasy season. Now, last year, absolute disaster, absolute disaster for Tyree Kill. And my ranking at 28, the reason it's on the show is because you guys have him in the 40s, which is not that I love Jalen Waldo, but I think ranking him the 40s is a little bit too egregious for a player.

with his talent with his actual ceiling ability and his his year is is tough like you can't you actually have to get your detective hat on and get get some science equipment to go see what really happened in the year for jalen wattle and last year in when games where he was healthy and when two was healthy Like I said, there's not a lot of crossover here, but in those games? Has that ever happened before? Both those guys healthy in the same game? It has, actually. I mean, overall in his career where 49 games for Jalen Waddle were in those games, he averages 15 p.R points a game when two is his quarterback as opposed to sub 10 when it is not him. For clarity, those numbers you just said are the career with Tua, not last year with Tua. That is his overall career. Did not play 49 games with Tua last year. Last year specifically.

Jaylen Wano was actually almost five catches a game, about 67 yards per game. So that puts his pace to about 80, 1100, basically the Ladd-McConkie numbers. And Tyreek, last year in Healthy Games with Tua, five receptions a game, 67 yards games. These guys were neck and neck. Now, it came, it was not consistent. There were games where Waddle played with Tua and it was bad, and then he had a couple games where it was fantastic. This is more of a note of this is a year five player who in 49 career games is averaging 15 PPR points a game. And we, the fantasy community kind of wants to just be done. I'll tell you why. Jalen Waddle. Yeah, they want to do that because his targets and receptions have gone down for three straight years. They want to do it because.

Even when he plays, he looks like he's limping on and off the field. And it feels like everything has to come. Like last year's season game log, that's one of the worst flops in fantasy. Yes. So the burns are severe. Yeah. And I went before their show, I watched every target for Jalen Waddle because I'm like, what happened where? And even that doesn't paint the whole picture because you watch him in on a lot of times. You're just like, oh, no, he's. He's so much faster than everybody. Some of his routes need to be crisp. I saw a lot of lazy out routes that led to issues with the catch. The screen game with Jalen Waddle was not working at all. And my dude had, ooh, he had a bit of the dropsies last year. So not everything is the external's fault when it comes to Jalen Waddle. But a player who has was three straight years at 1,000 yards to start his career that has a,

terrific or a horrifically bad year. I think that dropping him to the 40s is just a little too extreme for me. I actually agree with you that I think we're probably both on too much of the extremes here. When I looked at statting out Waddle, I focused at when Tua came back. So because week one, Tua had a gazillion yards looked awesome. Everything was great. Then he got concussed in week two. So when he got back in week eight, so weeks eight through 15. 15 he got waddle got hurt and it's not in my sample i actually have it not in mine as well i said that but it is through 14 okay um so weeks eight through 14 that was when toa got back and wattle was there now he was on pace for 77 receptions a thousand yards does not that's not terrible five tutties that yeah that's not terrible it's not great it's like 10 and a half fantasy points a flex player but it's the process it's the way that it comes because he had a game with two a

where he had 144 yards on a touchdown and another game where he had 99 yards on 12 targets and nine receptions. Those two were great. Those two are the reason why you're getting this 17 game pace of a thousand. But the process, how about four for 45? Two, two for negative four yards. Two receptions for negative four yards. Two receptions for 37 yards. Four receptions like the majority of his games are just disappearing. Well, it looks like that year in 2022. when he was on fire, 1,300 plus yards. That one's standing out as an outlier now. That's what it feels like. Because it's 18.1 yards that catch that year. 18.1. Then it's down to 14.1. Then it's down to 12.8. The eight touchdowns, right? The year since then, four and two. I know some injuries, but that, look, don't count on him for 17. Sure. So it does feel like, you know, we kind of hit our, like, that was the explosive, incredible.

offensive year. And part of it is the office, like the 12.8, I think that's low. That was an outcome of how Miami was running their offense against defensive. Ship Johnny out. Ship Johnny out and get me into Waddo. I don't think that Johnu is the issue. I think it was a Kyle had pointed out to me of just how often. the Miami Dolphins were against zone. So, I mean, they're just, they're playing that shell game where they're saying, you won't hit a big play on us. And good, good quarterbacks, though, I'm saying good quarterbacks figure out how to do it. Like, they figure out how to make sure that explosive things are, like Josh Allen, it's figuring it out. Where Miami just said, okay, we'll only go, we're going to go short stuff. And maybe, maybe a part of that is the concerns for Tua. They don't want them to get hit. But.

Then the defense is like, oh, good. Go ahead. Take all this short stuff. We don't care. That's dumb, inefficient football. That's not winning football when you can't hit an explosive play. Now, does it come back? It's one of the, the biggest questions of this fantasy football season. What is the Miami Dolphins offense? Jason has his target share at 17%, which tells me that John New departing would matter a lot. Oh my gosh. I was just going to bring that up. Jonu Smith, I think that is the. You know, you say, oh, it's the defensive coverage. You're right. However, if they do that again, it's going to be Jonu in the middle of the short area. Probably. They can replace that with Waddle, which they should. If you remember on the show last year, I was so pissed at Jano. I was sick of it because they're getting, he did nothing wrong and he wasn't bad, but he is not the athlete, the explosive guy that can, you know, ever.

He's just a great mismatch. He's a great mismatch on defensive linebacker. I would have loved to see them get Waddle more involved. If you look at those games at Tua came back from the concussion and whatever coverage or whatever, Tua, whatever, the reason is you had a pace of 103 receptions for Jonu Smith and a pace of 101 receptions for Devon A-Cham. Everything was just... Yeah, that's going to end it. That's going to end those other two guys. Yeah. That's 200 receptions. And so hopefully they cannot play that way, but it's hard to imagine with his concussion issues with the terrible offensive line and the way that defenses are playing them. I feel like their hand is a little bit forced. The one thing where when you're watching it that you can't fully piece together, I can talk about myself is because even in those healthy games with two, where I mean, he's.

an 1,100 yard type of receiver. His target share in games with Tua was still down at like 16, 17 percent. And it's, you, Brooks brought up a point of right around this time last year, like, we're reacting to Jalen Waddle getting so much money. And then they just, then they can't figure out how to get him the ball. To me. Very weird. And this is another, I don't know if you guys agree, disagree. Tyreek Hill's like regression. hurts wattle to me yeah in the way this offense works i mean tyrie kilt demanded so much there's some so much open field for wattle to work in that i wonder if he suffers and we haven't had to see him you know it's like juju when he had a b on the other side like do you i'm not saying he's going to disappear like juju but boy juju look like the next great thing until antonio brown wasn't taking away coverage yeah

and you didn't ever get a season like that again. It's hard to project a season for Waddle like his sophomore year. But I think the ambiguity of this offense right now is scary. So, you know, is a risk rating in the UDK. I think he's lower. Jason and I would probably both, it's kind of like lame having him in the 40s because it doesn't really seem like that makes sense. But at the same time, Tua risk, Waddle injury risk, offensive risk, Johnny and A-chan risk. It's really one of those offenses where you just got to call your shot and you hope you're right. Because if they get back down, if they get back to downfield passing, the two biggest values in this entire draft might be both Tyree Kil and Jalen Waddle. No, that's fair. They should be amazing values because they're not being drafted anywhere near their ceiling. If you just want to make the case, sealing and where people are drafted.

drafts. Did you see Tyreek Hill in that party bus or whatever with the quote? Oh no. A couple days ago. A bus, not a boat, right? Not a boat. Okay. It doesn't matter. Anything I hear about Tyreek. I'm like, oh, no, he just said he was going to knock McDaniel out in one of the games last year because he wasn't getting the ball. He's like, I almost knocked out our head coach. Hey, look, every clock, even a broken clock is right twice a day, right? All of our tiered rankings with. customizable scoring settings are in the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com. You want to see all the breakdown of where we have guys projected. We keep them updated. We update them nearly on a daily basis. Yeah, look, I said wide receiver 28. Is it going to be 28 by the time you hear this show? I don't know. Yeah, that's true. You know, this episode, the way that we're discussing and breaking down individual players, that's a lot like what those 100 plus player profile videos are that we just recorded. So.

If you've got the UDK, check those out in that. Yeah, see if we said the same stuff about Jan Waddle in the video. I hope so. All right, that'll do it for today's episode of the show. Thursday, very special mock draft episode coming your way. Do not miss it. Thanks for listening. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.