10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League in 2021 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/18

probably made you pull your hair out when you thought you'd get him back and play him. He's getting, you know, he's down in the rankings. Other players that were hated last year, Carson Wentz, AJ Green, Michael Thomas. I mean, the stink around Michael Thomas is probably not. He just casually slips AJ Green in there, Jason. He was super hated. Yeah. And I think, I think honestly, look, don't, my analysis of AJ Green is reasonable. The starting wide receiver for a team this year.

I don't think he's going to set your team on fire and win you the league. Oh, he'll set it on fire. On fire for sure. The point is, is there is fantasy value to be had there. I mean, he was putting up double-digit games the weeks that Tyler Lockett wasn't last year. So just have a reasonable view of Michael Thomas. Like this year, he's ahead of schedule. But man, the stink around him, the perception. Zach Earth is even in that category. I'm sorry to say. So clean slate this year.

More brainless heart. That's my advice. I love the I'm sorry to say because it's really true. You have to apologize for some of these players. Like you talk about AJ Green. I'm sorry. I don't want to be this guy. Right. You don't want to speak well of Zach Ertz who's been, you know, a fart face on the field lately. But the reality is he's stuck into third grade. You're darn right. I mean, look at his hair. That's a Harvard insult that I've ever heard of.

You know, he's on the field a lot. You've got to apologize, but you also have to be realistic. I like it. Use your brain. Use your brain. Number four. All right. Number four, my third and final tip here is the stack attack. It is a strategy we have not talked a ton about on this show. It is a strategy that is incredibly implemented in all DFS, all best ball lineups. Stacking your roster.

Pretty much is, I mean, it's what all the pros do. If you're going to really want to take down any kind of money tournament, you have to stack. And explain what that is, yeah, stacking is taking your quarterback or quarterbacks in a best ball and pairing them with the pass catchers from that lineup. It allows points to be maximized. You get double touchdowns on a single play, on a single week. I was just going to say, this is something that I have anecdotally loved to do.

and enjoyed as a player, but I am super curious about the math.

And whether that's just perception or reality. Well, the math in obviously money leagues, best ball leagues, DFS is outstandingly positive. You pretty much need to be stacking. But when it comes to redraft leagues, how does it fare in those leagues? We have an article already on the website with a lot of deep dive research and it is more boom bust for sure. It is slightly less consistent, but the booms are.

are enormous. Not only does it increase your ceiling, but it gives you something that you desperately need, which is in-rosster correlation. No one correlates better to your quarterback than a pass catcher on his own team. It kind of makes sense, but, you know, obviously Ryan Tannahill is going to correlate, you know, with A.J. Brown way more than Justin Herbert will. And the reality is these rosters win.

Championships. Look at last year Stefan Diggs and Josh Allen. When you have a good pair, you can't.

beat them certain weeks. And I'm not interested in coming in third in my fantasy league. I want to win. Not again. Never again. Look, if you ain't first, you're last. There was another great study. Michael Leone from Established the Run did an in-depth study last year. A late round quarterback, a 10-round plus that was attached to their teammate, had a hit rate of 65%. That's a 10-point increase and outperformed ADP. This is a strategy that works.

for redraft. And I don't, we talked yesterday about, well, would you grab Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson? I wouldn't because the opportunity cost there is enormous. I am spending a fourth and a fifth round pick on non-wide receivers, non-running backs. But pairing a great receiving option with a late round quarterback is a phenomenal strategy. And you could do this not only in the draft, but in your...

in season when you're looking at your streaming option. Grab the guy that correlate. If you got Darren Waller and Derek Carr's on the waivers and there's someone else in a good matchup, grab Derek Carr because the correlation in roster will really help you win. Here are my examples of guys. I'm targeting. Value stacks this year. Yeah. I am looking at Tana Hill.

along with AJ Brown or Julio. So he's one of my late round guys. Obviously, Brady's the other late round guy. Brady Godwin is my favorite value. Brady Godwin is great. Mike Evans, Antonio Brown. You can stack him with any of those guys. Let's say you grab Terry McLaurin early in your draft. And you're a late round quarterback drafter. Try Ryan Fitzpatrick on for size. Agreed. Every single game that Terry McClough, I mean, you're taking a shot when you draft Terry that he's going to be great. Well, whenever he's great.

You're going to win a week if you stack them with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Deontay Johnson, Chase Claypool, you can get a free big bin at the end of your draft. And I love Brandon Ayuk. We've brought that up. Grab Trey Lance. I mean, stack these. If you've got these wide receivers, consider pairing them with the quarterbacks. It will help you win games, not just put up points, but actually win a week for you and maybe bring home that trophy at the end of the year. All right. So stack attack.

Very nice. Very nice. Number three. I'm going to jump ahead of Mike here because it kind of pairs well with yours and then we'll rotate back to Mike's tip here. Mine is, and I'm going to need you help with this one, Jason, but it's hold on to your butts. Okay, a lot of butts coming. Look, I've seen more teams win championships using late round quarterback strategy.

than those who have spent up on quarterbacks early. So this is built around, you know, you just talked about the stack attack and looking at late round values, stacking them with early round talent at the wide receiver position. And look, when you, okay. Here we go. First butt. Early quarterbacks are safe. Wrong. What? No, they're not.

No number one quarterback has repeated since 2012. We just talked about that in the quarterback ranking show. But listen to this mind-blowing stat. Since 2017, only three quarterbacks drafted as top five quarterbacks maintain their draft position or improved. Gross. The other 17 finished an average of six spots lower at the end of the season. And that doesn't even include like players that got injured like Rogers or Dak. So.

No, they're not safe. They actually lose their draft position. Whoa. But Andy. The Vopo is shook. I'm a little shook. But only the top quarterbacks put up elite numbers. Wrong. On average, 40 quarterbacks per season put up a top 12 week.

There are tons of options. Each year new players emerged from the undrafted range. Justin Herbert did it last year. Winston did it in 2019. Goff did it in 2018. And those were players that ended up jumping up and being consistent, not counting for the week-to-week matchups. But what about all the guys that stink? He's a terrible NFL quarterback. Why did you draft him? Well, look, Derek Carr, I brought it up yesterday. He was the...

Number 13 fantasy quarterback last year. Cam Newton was 16. We all know Cam Newton on the field wasn't as good as Cam Newton in fantasy. Carr and Newton combined for 15 weeks as top 12 quarterbacks. Blake Bortles famously won fantasy championship. Yes, he did. I remember that. Oh, no. But what about when the quarterback is playing poorly? I've got a message for you, Mr. Vopo. Yeah.

Not momentum. Rule the day. When you stream the quarterback position, you're looking for matchups. It doesn't matter if a player has a bad string of weeks. Look to the matchup. Find your quarterback value. 40 of them are going to give you a top week. Have I shut you up already? Yeah. Okay. Never. Never. I'll be back. All right. Moving on. Number two. All right. We're calling this one the true value of a touch because you've,

You hear us talking about we need running backs with receptions. And I just wanted to break down some of the math and the data behind that. Top 12 running backs who have finished in the, so they finish the top 12 and they have finished there with under 45 targets. Oh, these numbers are crazy. In 2016, it was three. The next year it was two. The next year, it was one. The next year it was two. And then last year we had a bit of an outlier.

where it jumped all the way up to four. So four out of 12 of the top 12 did not have 45 targets. That is correct. And that was Henry, J.T, Chubb, and Gibson, who Gibson was just under, which means the last five years, we've seen an average of 2.4 players finish in the top 12 at the running back position and have under 45 targets. And last year, all of the target monsters were hurt. Echler, McCaffrey, Barkley,

pulled out of that top 12. So that number probably jumped up in part from their absence. Yeah. Jonathan Taylor, Gibson, they don't crack that top 12 if those other guys are held. And as a whole, looking at how everything was trending for just overall running back production. You know, it was crazy last year where we saw a massive, massive dip in overall total reception yards at the running back position, especially when it was steadily holding around the...

22,000 total receiving yards for running backs. It dropped all the way under 19,000 this past year. And yet we saw rushing touchdowns skyrocket. Over 30 total rushing downs compared to the last two years. And so just players need to have a target. And let's look at the math of what is it worth? Last year, when you're looking at the top 50 running backs, one attempt on average was worth about.

0.45 points. One reception was worth 1.2 points. 0.45 to 1.2 on average. Yes. And that's in a half point PPR scoring format. Interesting. So you need these guys to get the receptions. Yes, you have the outlives. Like I said, 2.4 guys are going to jump into the top 12. And this year, that'll probably be Derek Henry. And Nick Chubb even, he didn't, Nick Chubb didn't hit the mark last year, but two years ago.

Nick Chubb was over that mark. He's not an elite level volume pass catcher, but they've used him like that before. And he has some chops. So it can happen, but it's a bad bet. Yes. So that's why we've been talking about J.K. Davids, the talent is incredible. And sure, maybe J.K. Dobbins has an outlier rushing touchdown season. But we know that Baltimore, Lamar Jackson, he doesn't check it down at a high rate to his running backs. So it's going to be very tough.

for him to get into that top 12. Josh Jacobs, he was in the top 12 last year. He was just at that 45 target mark, but does that dip because of the addition of Kenyon Drake? So when you're looking at these running backs saying, I'm drafting this player because I see a way that he jumps into the top 12. Make sure that you are projecting at least 45 targets for that running back. It's valuable to have the ball thrown your way. Yeah. In today's both NFL and football.

in today's fantasy where it's all half PPR and full PPR, you have to have your running back catching the ball, unless his name is Derkenry. All right. Without further ado, one tip left. Number one. Never give up. Never surrender. That's right. Andy. That's right, Andy. Every single year.

We hear over and over and over. It's one of my absolute favorite pieces of feedback. We hear, I was 0 and 4, and then I found your podcast, went on to win the championship. I was 1 in 5. But the majority of people out there,