Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early QB Rankings Part 2: Values, Sleepers & Streamers

may look really attractive in the beginning of the year. Maybe they've got more home games. Maybe you have a better schedule laying out before you. Or the inverse, where you can get a guy, you know, and you know you've got to wait a couple weeks on them, and then his schedule opens up. We get questions a lot of times on what do we use as tiebreakers when you're in a draft? You've got two guys you like. And people use all sorts of different things. A coin. One of the things that I use more often than anything else.

and I don't think we've ever brought it up on the show before, is if I've got two guys that I see as the same and they're both on the clock, I'm going to then, only as a tiebreaker, but I look at the first four games because I would rather have the guy, you know, we trade a lot in our league. If you're in a league that has activity and trades, you want that guy that's going to come out as a Marvin Jones and be able to, you know, be traded. I prefer people getting off to a hot start.

than someone who I think is going to be a back half player when it comes to the draft day. All right. You guys have any other news or can we get into the quarterback? Let's do it. Quarterbacks. Well, that's a warning. If you're operating heavy machinery, if you've just eaten something that doesn't settle easily, this is the general warning that goes out now. We have to do this every time.

Number 13, well, he didn't, you know, it had been scarier if he ended up in the top 12. But number 13 on our consensus quarterback rankings, by the way, if you want to hear those first 12, go listen to Tuesday show. Yeah. Get over there. Number 13, Blake Bortles. You know, 13's a downgrade from where he finished last year. He finished 10th. From where he's finished last two years. You make the comment of, well, it would have been weird if he was in the top 12 like he has been.

been the past two years? It's actually hard, I feel like, to take him out. Ironically, Mike and I have him as our quarterback 16 in six point leagues, and you've got him at nine. The last two years say that even in a bad year, right? Last year, he looked horrendous. Worst case scenario. His, you know, attempts per touchdown were awful. I got a new nickname for Lake Bortles. Let's hear it. Space Mountain. Because you, it's a famous ride.

You're happy you win on it, but when it's over, you're wobbly and you might throw up. Oh, dude, I love – I don't know if I can handle this because Space Mountain is my favorite ride. I don't want Blake Bortles associated with the green. I like going deeper because it's – I mean, you're in the pitch black. Yeah, exactly. It almost seems like he plays quarterback in the pitch black. When you come out, you've got enough points, but you're sick to your stomach and you don't know what's going on. So Space Mountain is our number 13. And look, there's reasons to believe. There are.

that he's going to be as good, if not better than last year. In fact, I believe I have him... Do I have him higher than you guys? Jason said you have him at 9. Yeah, I was going to say, I like him. I need to move him up if I'm at 16. I like him because I think...

The team is, at the end of the year, they figured out how to use Ellen Robinson, put him in a better position to succeed. There's a decent chance that they draft a high profile running back to take some pressure off of him. And there's also the rumors of his shoulder being injured for the majority of last year, which if that is true, I mean, you never know if those are excuses made after a poor season or if it's legit. But if it's legit, that kind of affects a quarterback. I will say I threw out the word, well, last year was basically worst case scenario.

I take it back because worst case scenario is this season if he ends up getting pulled and losing his job. That would be worst case scenario for him. But last year we talked about this quarterback 10. He's never rushed for less than 310 yards. 300 yards rushing for a quarterback is a tremendous floor. It really helps, especially Bortles as a little bit interception prone. However, final games, they eliminated the Gus bus.

They tore that ticket up, and then Andy had to tear up his marriage papers to Gus Bradley. And my autographed photo I paid $7 for. Those final games, man. Over 300 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions. I'm going to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction here. I think the Jacksonville Jaguars draft a quarterback in the top two rounds. They may. And I think, I think Blake Bortles.

This is prove it year. This is it. I mean, you don't, you come out. Now, I'm putting myself on the side of believing that he'll do enough to be fantasy relevant and stay in that role. But it's still possible. Look at last year. Finish 10th as a fantasy quarterback. It's still possible you succeed in fantasy and your fifth year option is declined and you're not back as a quarterback at the Jacksonville Jaguar. Say what about injuries. A team normally doesn't come out and say we're going to rebuild your foundation through mechanics and reps.

if your shoulder is hurt. Normally they say, all right, we'll get him healthy and he'll do what he does. No, we're going to rebuild you, Blake, because we have to. The old version is disturbing us. So, you know, and there's trade rumors, you know, Arizona or New York, the Giants, there's talk of Blake Portals being shipped out for a mid-round pick at some point in time. If things do not work out.

Yeah, I agree. So I think they're going to draft. I mean, if Deshaun Watson ended up on Jacksonville or somebody like, I mean, they've hosted these guys. I think it's possibly draft somebody. Yeah, that could certainly happen. We've seen mocks where that's happening. But I will throw this out there.

Blake Bortles is right now he's completely free. Yeah, he is. He is undrafted. Why all the stuff I just said doesn't even matter to you as a fantasy player. He's undrafted in many leagues. And, you know, if my backup plan, I've got other guys that I certainly want over Blake Bortles. But if I went through the entire draft and every time I got to a round where I had a target, they were gone. I'm not worrying. Because if I had to grab Blake Bortals at the very end of a draft, I would much rather have him than Joe Flacco or Alex Smith or guys like that because...

We've seen two years in a row where he's been a top option as far as at the end of the year in fantasy. You know he can't get it done. If he doesn't, I'll just stream. Cut him and stream. Yeah, and then just a reminder of... Plus cutting him is... It feels good. It's delightful. Alan Hearns was, I mean, a gigantic part of his success in 2015. And Alan Hearns, we were talking about this in the office. And it was like, man, how many games did Alan Hearns play?

I felt like it was three. Was his success because he looked so much like an opposing cornerback? Is that one of the? Oh, here's the thing. He actually played in 11 games, but you can see the injury really take its toll after seven weeks where he essentially disappeared from all stat sheets and just watching him.

It doesn't look the same. But through those first seven weeks, and I know you're extrapolating, but he was having a good year. I mean, he was on pace for a thousand yards in those first seven weeks. So to lose him was a big deal. You had kind of a mini breakout from Marquis Lee, who was a high draft pick. I mean, it's, it's very possible for Blake Bortles to not return to insanity, but to, uh, to, to return to being, you know, a good fantasy quarterback. Yeah. And sometimes you just got it.

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despite playing only 12 games last year, still finishes the 13th best fantasy quarterback. Lots to like about what Marcus Mariotta did last year. The question for you guys sits at number 14 on our consensus rankings. Mr. Mord, is this ascension continue for him or you have doubts?

I do have doubts. I have doubts for a couple of different reasons. Now, I like Marcus Marietta in the sense that he is, he's young, he's proven that he can get it done, he can run the ball, which we know running quarterbacks, the yards are stupidly valuable for quarterbacks. However, there are concerns which I find in when he faces top defenses and when he faces bottom half.

defenses when it comes to the passing defense. And it's not he, I mean, you talk about Drew Brees and their home road splits and Big Ben and these massive splits. Those splits usually John Claude Van Dam levels. Yeah. They do. Oh, good one. That was nice. Sorry. But the split for Mariotta from 2015 and 2016 when he plays home road.

It's like 0.1 points different. It doesn't matter. Home road, that's fine. But if he plays a top half defense, he's only scoring 17.5 fantasy points per game. And when he plays a bottom half defense, it's 26.17 fantasy points a game. So that leads me to believe that what I've got there is a streamer.

so far, a guy that can take advantage of bad deeds with his rolling mobility and defenses buy into that. He dumps it over the top, especially inside that 10-yard line and gets those touchdowns against poor defenses where good defenses don't do that. Mike, I know you've got some, Mike's got some great stats on his 10 zone. The 10 zone, we talked about this that, I mean, when you're inside the 10, probability of throwing a touchdown goes way up. You had Aaron Rogers who.

46.7% of his passes inside the 10 were a touchdown. Well, yeah, but he's a hundred favorite. And that was, that was, that was second. Uh, number one, surprisingly is Marcus Mariotta. What? Where almost 61% of his passes inside the 10 were a touchdown. That's outrageous. No one, unsustainable is what you mean. Yeah. I mean, most of these guys are in the high 40s.

I mean, low 40s, high 30s. So his efficiency was through the roof. And he has Delaney Walker, so I don't want to discredit his weapons. He's got Montgomery and Rashard and Matthews. But listen, listen, generally you would think, look, Jordan Nelson is a monster. Yeah, Red Zone guy, yeah. Mike Evans, monster. He doesn't have an outside receiver that you look as. Look, if they brought Corey Davis in.

Does that change his ability in those tough defensive matchups? Look, you're not taking advantage of bad cornerbacks with an underside. I mean, Richard Matthews is not a small guy, but he's not a big guy. I think that the running game has a huge thing to do with this. Their offensive line, according to football outsiders, they were the fourth best run blocking line in the league. And I mean, you saw it.

DeMarco Murray completely came back to life and was dominant. And when you got to worry about that guy inside the 10, it can make things a little bit easier for your quarterback. Weeks 5 through 12, you would remember this if you were playing fantasy last year. When Marcus Marriota was basically the quarterback 1, quarterback 2, depending on your scoring. But like Jason was talking about with those splits, you go back and look at the teams that he was playing. It was this unbelievable cupcake.