Early RB Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Spurts & Bunches - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/11

So, you know, do we have an upside case at all for Alvin Kamara? Well, this is sometimes fantasy football is a little bit easier than we make it. Guys as they age, they get worse, not better. This is a player who got less efficient last year. The last two seasons, he's had his most opportunities in his career, both seasons over 300 total opportunities, which he was always an efficiency, fewer touches, but extremely explosive, a lot of touchdowns. And the touchdowns have kind of gone away as this offense went from Drew Brees and a high-powered, high-scoring machine. Sean Peyton-led structure to now they know they've got a superstar.

you know, from the last several years in Alvin Camara, so let's just give him the ball a lot, but it's just not as good in offense. It's not going to be as efficient, and he's not getting better going forward. You add in the question marks of the legal trouble, and I think about running back 20s where he belongs. Like Mike said, he pretty much played the whole season last year and was about the running back 20. So if you assume, okay, there's a suspension coming. He's going to miss call it three games. This is probably about where he should be. That being said, I would expect the Saints to be.

a better offense this next year than they were last year as a whole. So scoring opportunities should be up with Derek Carr, with hopefully you presume that the wide receiver court won't be completely decimated due to injury as it was through last season. So I think this is where he belongs. I'm curious if the addition of Jamal Williams, they move, they move Camara back to what he was. like three years ago, like where, you know, up until 2021, he didn't, he never saw over 200 carries on the ground, kind of got close, but you know, 2019, 171 attempts, 2020, 187. Then he skyrockets to 240 the next year and he had 223 this past season and the targets went down. I wonder if the addition of Jamal Williams who, yeah, Jamal Williams, he can be a good pass catcher.

But he's also just a sturdier guy. He's more of a hammer. So I wonder if they bring him in and you have a split more in line of the Mark Ingram years where he – Yeah, catch passes. Where Camara can be back in the range where he's getting nearly 100 targets because he has not been close the last two years. Yeah, and not to linger too long, but I mean, it's just one of those things where Camara was better with less opportunities. You know, he had the breeze offense and yes, the touchdowns were there, but – We call that the Lamar Miller.

Yeah, it's just one of those things where I think he's going to be a really hard player to pull the trigger on in drafts with the suspension. Very. Because you don't know how good it's going to be when he comes back. It's not like a suspension for a player that is locked and loaded like middle peak Camara years with Breeze. It's going to be like, I'm going to invest a pick and I'm going to invest a bench spot because I can't put him on IR just so that I get what, an RB two to three? Yeah, exactly. That's the issue because even if his pass catching goes up with Jamal Williams there to put him back in that role, Jamal Williams is going to take the goal line opportunity, and those will go down. He only had four carries inside the five-yard line last season did Camara. You know, you go back. Well, he's a superstar Taysam Hill. Yeah. So you don't expect a lot of touchdowns there. And if you're talking about, okay, he's the running back 17 on a points per game basis to-

Wait on that. It's just not worth it. It's not a, it's not like you're drafting a locked in top three back. Jekalen Williams. Sorry, Jekaelin Dobbins. That's where we were moving to. Gotcha. J.K. Dobbins at 19, 24 years old. Contract year. I don't know how to feel about J.K. Dobbins. It's very confusing. Even last year. When he was being productive, it's like he confused us because he looked injured. Yes. Well, he looked half injured. Because he didn't have a strong leg. Well, no, he had a strong leg. Yeah, he had one really strong leg. If we can get two strong legs from Dobbins this year, though, I think that this early look at running back 19 is going to be too low. I agree. I'm actually really in on Dobbins. My best ball leagues so far this off season, I've got a lot. The big question with J.K. Dobbins is.

more Lamar than Dobbins. He's always been a really good running back, really efficient. The issue has been his injuries. He got a bad injury. You know, it wasn't just a simple ACL tear, quick, easy to recover from. This was a more complicated surgery. He comes back, re-injures himself both in like early on, misses weeks one and two, even though he said he was going to be ready, comes back for a short stretch, gets injured. But when he came back at the end, With his one strong leg, he was really electric. And another offseason recovering, being able to work out that weak leg, I do think he's going to be really good for fantasy. Now, he's not a pass catcher. So, you know, usually in fantasy when you're looking at the best backs, you want someone who's scoring touchdowns and catching the ball. That's not going to be Dobbins. But he's also not going to be drafted like a top 12 guy. He's going to be drafted around.

running back 20 and probably beat that out. I was laughing to myself because his 17-game pace for total receptions on the year for that four-game span you talked about, where, by the way, he was seven to carry, 1,600 yards on the ground pace, finished 9th, 18, 37th, and 23rd. His reception total on the year would have been four. Four receptions. So you're right. I mean, that's going to lower, that puts him kind of out of, at least in my opinion, top 12 range. I don't think top 12 is. is a reasonable place for Dobbins to reach. Yeah, that would be on the basis of him having 12, 13, 14 touchdowns. And you're not going to project that for, you know, a back of his size who can be vultured by Lamar himself. Well, like, I mean, archetype wise, you know, it's, he's not that different than Nick Chubb. I mean, the four receptions, that would be absolutely outrageous. But you do have a new OC in here. You have Todd Monkin.

More pass heavy is what they were likely to be than they were with Greg Roman. So Dobbins is very interesting to me because I don't know that he would be that different than Nick Chub. I think that's giving him pretty high praise for a few good games. But it's not just a few good games. The story of Dobbins is so complicated because he was, he was in that crop of like. really, really good rookie running backs and was a second round pick, had, I believe it was the aging out Mark Ingram in front of him, took the job kind of over the second half, was hitting these huge long touchdowns that didn't seem sustainable. And so that was kind of, well, what do we think about him? Then he got hurt. And so we deleted that whole second year. And this past year was pretty deleted as well. So it's really hard to gauge.

Who is J.K. Dobbins as a player? Because it's really just one year. And it feels like he's been in the league forever. It's hard because you have to factor that in. That story, the book of J.K. Dobbins includes one and a half deleted years. So from a risk perspective, you know, yeah, if he's perfectly healthy in the perfect scenario, maybe you get a chub year. Miles Sanders comes in at 18. Brand new contract. Carolina Panther, Miles Sanders. There is. I don't know. I think I like Miles Sanders more than... Like I have Dobbins over Sanders currently. Yeah, I like Miles Sanders potential this year. And we're going to be adding something brand new to the ultimate draft kit, something that we're titling the upside meter, something where we're going... Title pending. Title pending. We're going to be looking at the potential of players because you have their, you have rankings based on, you know, stab projections.

But certain players have the ability to vastly beat them in the ideal scenario. And certain players don't. They just don't have a real upside case. To me, Miles Sanders has a significant upside case in Carolina. This is a team that with Deonta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard ran the ball all over people last year in impressive fashion. I mean, we talk about the season Deont de Forman had, Miles Sanders is a better runner than Deont de Faumann. And so to me, this is a player that. coming off an almost 1,300-yard season, getting a big contract, still being under 26 years old, I think Miles Sanders could dance with the top 12. I really do. Interesting. I don't disagree with you. This is a situation where you saw Deont de Forman once he got involved later in the season because he started kind of as a backup.

The last 11 games played, he was on a 17-game pace of 1,355 yards, 300-carry attempt. They paid Miles a lot of money to come in here and be the dude. And I believe that they will also involve him in the passing game far more than he was with the Eagles. They've made a commitment to him financially that you love to see when you're drafting a running back. I feel pretty confident that he's going to be the dude here, and I know what this team wants to do. and they want to run the ball. Well, you'd probably, but you have a completely different cast of characters who are in charge. Now, Frank Reich is the head coach. Thomas Brown's the O.C. He's the first time being the offensive coordinator. I mean, he holds Reich's clipboard then? Just saying, like he's part of it where last year, you know, it was the combination of Matt Roole. He was.

doing whatever he's doing. Steve Wilkes. And then, like, you guys realize you're praising the Ben McAdoo's system right now. We're not praising the system. The system was stupid to overrun the ball. We're praising it as the offensive line. Yeah, the offensive line. That's the strength of this team. They're going to have a rookie quarterback that's going to come in. And they've got a great offensive line that can move people. So I just don't see. They had a good running back now. I don't see a world where they don't. where they don't see that as their strength that say, oh, we want to win games. We want to protect our rookie quarterback. Let's establish the run. And if that happens, Miles should be pretty good. Well, I think they can win the division. I think that's another story. With a rookie? Yeah. It's not a great division. I think Carolina can win that division. Because what you're talking about, Mike, is you've got to beat Baker Mayfield. The rookie has to be Baker Mayfield. How dare you? You mean Kyle Trask. You have to beat Derek Carr in division.

Which is, I mean, a lot of people have done that. And then you've got to beat Desmond Ritter. Like, if Bryce Young is the pick, he's the best quarterback in the division from day one. And this is a team, and this is a team that was competitive last year, despite the firing of their head coach, despite sending away Christian McCaffrey. I'm very optimistic about the Panthers. I will be placing a preseason better rusky on if they take Bryce. If they take somebody else, I'll still probably bet on them. Which the line has moved. Bryce Young is currently, according to Draft Kings, the favorite to go 101 now. It switched all the way to being the favorite? I've heard that there's people in the organization that are pretty convinced that Bryce should be the guy. Wow.

James Connor comes in at 17. They should listen to my takes, because then they go Stroud. Yeah, my rookie rankings, I know we went over them, but right now they are young Richardson Stroud. But NFL wise, who would you, would you go Bryce or Stroud? Because you wouldn't go, you wouldn't go Richardson. No, I'm back on the Bryce train. Okay. I would go, if I was an NFL GM, I would draft Stroud. There you go. James Connor comes in at 17. We all have them similarly ranked. Mike, you have them the highest in our early, early kind of pretend rankings. Way too early. But last year, I think one of the things you can look at is that 58 targets, I think you can look at from week nine on, he was the running back five in fantasy. We talked a lot about Connor as a value heading into last year. And it looked real shaky. It looked real bad. It looked bad. Then he got hurt. And Kyler got hurt.

Oh, well, that was a bad take. No, it wasn't because then he was great. Yeah, I mean, it was bad for people that had him from weeks two to eight. But the process. But his ability, I think, of what we expected. It wasn't a small run at the end of the year. This was not a JK Dobbins four weeks span. This was eight weeks in a row for James Connor where he was on pace for James Connor stuff, 1,200 yards, 13 touchdowns, 68 receptions. And he made countless impressive. Pass catching plays. This was not, I just lucked into the checkdowns. This was, I made, he made plays in the receiving game, which is, look, right now, this is the guy for maybe a lost season in Arizona. You could have checkdown country. You know, right now the Cardinals, if they start the year without Kyler, it's going to be Colt McCoy and David Blow. Oh, though. Competing. Yeah, James Connor, this spot at number 17 here is a placeholder to me because.

If you go to the season with this depth chart where it's Keante Ingram behind him and Corey Clement behind him and Kyler is healthy, well then James Connor is set up to succeed. He's going to be one of the few workhorse running backs on an offense that can score if Kyler is available. And you could flip that all the way to the Cardinals. I've seen a mock draft with them grabbing Jamir Gibbs, which would be ridiculous. But if they did that and be fun, I know you'd like you. I can see that. But if they were to grab a day two running back and they don't have Kyler to start, then James Connor is in a timeshare on a bad offense and his best. So really Connor, to me, is on this show, he's really talented. He can score on the goal line. He can catch the ball. He's everything you want for fantasy. Let's see what his situation is closer to the draft. Yeah, he needs to have the workload to, he's not going to be a highly efficient.

200 touch player that's good for fantasy. He needs to be to the dude. Aaron Jones comes in at 16. He's 28 years old. His basketball ADP 16. I have him the highest at 15. Last year, 1100 yards, 59 receptions. That's not a lot of receiving yards. And five touchdowns. Is that true? Is that a typo? I'm going to see if that's a Kyle. 395 receiving yards is correct. Gross. That's just not a lot. On 59 catches? Let's just be clear, though. This was the RB 9 last year. He's been a top 12 fantasy running back for four straight years. So coming in at 16 is, let me put it this way. Do you believe Aaron Jones has a significantly worse floor than 16? Yes. Where? No. In the 20s. Okay. And Jason, you said no. You think this is a- Ironically, I would say, you know. I say outside of the top 24.

Right. I think his floor is probably around 24. He's going to be an RB2 next year. He's very talented on a per touch basis. Can he be a one? I mean, he's never not been a one, but I would be. He's never not had Aaron Rogers. I would be surprised without Aaron Rogers if he is a running back one next season, especially considering the fact that he's not really a touchdown machine. I know he had that year, four years ago where he had like 16 rushing touchdowns, but he doesn't project to be that. That seems like the outlier season for him.

He had two touchdowns on the ground last year. So he's a good pass catching back who's talented. I also worry when I draft him that it comes in spurts and bunches for him. He has great games and disappears a lot. And that's not the type of running back that I want. I want a little bit more consistent volume-based running back. And he's getting older. So I'm not super high on Aaron Jones. I don't. Sounds like a new candy. Spurts and bunches. Oh. I'd eat it. I mean, I can promise that. Is there sugar in it? That tastes good. Mike, do you have anything to add on Jones? Nope. I agree with Jason. David Montgomery at 15. Big contract with the Detroit Lions. I don't think any of us, I mean, we're all, I would say fair with this ranking. Jason 15. I'm at 16. Mike at 17. But I do see.

significant upset. The same amount that I see with Miles Sanders, probably a little bit more, just in the fact that you have an offensive line that's extremely impressive. You have a division that they can compete and win, just like Miles Sanders, and I like running backs on winning teams. You have a contract and a commitment to him by the Lions than we just saw Jamal Williams score a million touchdowns for. And so... Look, I'm excited genuinely as a fan to see what David Montgomery can do with a good offensive line. He is going from a really bad situation with the offensive line over the last couple years in Chicago to one of the best in football. So to me, he is another player that can dance inside that top 12. David Montgomery does not get enough respect for being a really good running back in the NFL. He isn't the highlight real machine. So people don't love him. And I think he was overhyped coming in as a prospect.

loved the prospect and all of a sudden hate the result of what he's been, but he's a very solid player. The situation is great. You look at Jamal Williams, and these opportunities won't be the same because, you know, people drag down on the one-yard line, but Jamal Williams is gone, and last year he had 46 carries inside the 10, 34 carries inside the five-yard line. They do not see DeAndre Swift as the goal lineback for this team. David Montgomery will get the touchdown opportunities. He can still catch the ball, a good offense. Jared Goff has never been a red zone quarterback. When you're there, they know how to score, and it's run the ball because the other team can't stop our offensive line if we've got a good back, and they've got a good back in David Montgomery. The concern for Montgomery is just if that variance bounces back drastically from what Jamal Williams is the opportunity he had at the goal line.

And on top of that, you have, yes, it seems like the team is not super into D'Andre Swift, but his Swiss rookie year, he touched the ball about 13 times a game, 16 times a game the next year, and that plummeted down to 10. If that jumps back into the 16, you take away a bunch of touchdown opportunities that Jamal Williams had last year. They're just, David Montgomery is... very intriguing to me, but I think he also carries a lot of risk. Romandre Stevenson comes in at 14. For now. He's 25 years old, and it is a for now because we don't know what the draft's going to hold for the Patriots. It's Bijon. No, it isn't Michael. That's a nightmare. Yeah. Were they on the bottom, bottom, bottom of your list? They're not on the top, top, top. That's for sure. I mean, to me, that would send.

That would send chills down my spine as a Bijon, you know, the Bijon minute today. Let's get into it. Because Remandre is a- Please don't be the Patriots. Reminders is a good player. He's a really good player. If the end of the year last year where he fumbled away in my championship was not fun. Sure. But the player himself, he runs hard. You know, he caught 69 passes. Nice. He finished at 11. Yeah, that's not the best Bijon landing spot. If Bijon is drafted by the Patriots, there is potential that there's seismic activity across the United States. The rector scale? That is measurable. The scientists will see it. Will you stomp your feet? Stomp with me, America. I mean, it'll be a problem. But, you know, obviously Bijon can only go to one spot. And if they don't grab Bajon,

then there are, you know, the reports where they would like a blue chip running back in the draft. There aren't many of those guys. There's only one. Well, yeah, I mean, there's only one true blue chipper. Now, Gibbs makes sense here. Gibbs does. You've got the connection to Alabama. The Patriots love drafting Alabama guys. And they brought in Bill O'Brien back from Alabama. So. You brought Bill O'Brien back from Alabama. Yeah. We did it. A lot of bees. That big old, what do you? Oh, the butt chin. Yeah, that's what it's called. Yeah. I was going to ask you what. Is that what it is? No, it's a butt chin. Yeah. I mean, if you want to be boring, it's something else. But it is a but chin. Because it looks like a little butt chin. Yes. I'm not even convinced. That's exactly why I call it a butt chin. Do we know anybody around here with butt chins? Good strong. You can't even see the chins in this office. Yeah. We're all bearded up. Hal, do you have a butt chin? I don't think so. I mean, and it is.

It's funny you call it a butt chin because it's also like connected with like that's like a prince or a superhero chin. Like that is. That's why I'm trying to remember the real name, but every time I'm trying to think of it. I thought it was cleft. You say butt chin. I thought it was cleft. Yeah. I'll look at it. Hold on. Cleft chin. Cleft chin. Something. That sounds right to me, but. Yeah. I think that's good enough for now. Yeah. Anyways, butchen Bill O'Brien brought in, uh, from Alabama. Gibbs would make sense. The draft will come and go and we will know whether or not they invested a second round pick or a third round pick or first round pick on running back. Assuming they don't, Romandre is very exciting. Let me ask the question then for the dynasty players with Ramandre Stevenson. Are you worried enough to trade him? You were. Yes. I was. All right. So you're asking. I was worried enough. I was worried. I don't want to put that. Everyone's going to want to go from here and say, oh, no, what do I do? I.

You don't want to cause like a groundswell of panic. But I would be concerned enough that in the draft someone's going to come in. And the Patriots just they do what they do for years and years and years, which is very often they have someone who shows up at the running back position and gives you an insane value. But they also have specialties. They have guys like Ramandre's pass catching. If they signed Jemir Gibbs. Remandre's pass catching will evaporate because that will be what Gibbs does for the New England Patriots. Dimple, dimple chin is also what I was thinking. Oh, it's a dimple. It's a big old butt dimple. I mean, no, it's not a butt dimple. That's a different type of. It's a cleft butt. That's a crack. Yeah, that's true. All right, Nick Chobb at 13. Oh, man. It was a, it was a start of the year that was.

A ton of regret for fantasy players that didn't draft Nick Chow. Yeah, we were on our way to some magic there. I mean, he's, he's so good. He's so good. And Cream Hunt is done. Yep. Something seems to have changed. Yeah, weird. During the year where, like when I'm looking at his game, he was so good for the first part of the season. And then at the end of the season, he was so bad. And I just can't like right around week 13. Right around week 13. Yeah, it was Voldemort. All right. Yeah. Listen. Nick Chubb, I haven't at 9. He finished at 8 last year. I'm sorry, he finished. Where did he finish? He finished at 5. He's basketball 8. You're crazy to have him at 14. Nick Chubb is going to dominate again. This is a 1,500 yard runner. He's going to score a bunch. He makes, you know, catching 27 passes for Nick Chubb is fine. It's fine. And Cream Hunt's done. I mean, Cream Hunt was an ever-present touchdown vulture threat. So he won't be back.

Nick Chubb belongs inside the top 10. There is such a strong... So please drag his ADP down. Yeah, you talked about I'm a fool for having him at running back 14. That's where I would be drafting him. I don't believe he's going to catch enough passes to be relevant, and I am not bullish at all on this offense. I think this offense is not going to be better or improved. I think it's on the way down. I don't think the Sean Watson is going to have a great season. Rumblings of switching to more pass-heavy as well. That is just the opinion of one man, and you can easily see the world where, look, Deshaun Watson was out of football for a year and a half. He was gone. It comes back. Didn't look great, but now he's got the actual off-season with the team off of that season. We've seen him be a top-flight quarterback. There's a reason why he has the most guaranteed money in NFL history. Should he come back to form this season?

And play well. Then you're talking about a really good offense with a really good running back who will have scoring opportunities up the wazoo. And that was the issue, right? He didn't score any touchdowns once Deshaun Watson came back. And he didn't score any touchdowns when they came back because they didn't score any touchdowns. Their offense was bad. So really to me, when I'm saying, do you believe Nick Chubb's going to have a great year or bad year? I feel like that's really tied to what do you believe Deshaun Watson will be this season. Will he get back to form and get it together?