Early Breakouts & Sleepers, The Boyd Void - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/25

Oh, no. He really doesn't have metaphorically. Metaphorically. He's not actually dead. He's alive. Yeah, but you know, you know, he's like, you know what I'm saying. So I take the dude for a great offense. I mean, he's only making like three million a year. Do you need me to get on the phone? Yeah. If I could, if I had him, I'd trade him to your roster just to make sure he's eligible. But what happens to you, Jay, if July rolls around and Jared McKinnon's back on this team? Jerk McKinnon was on the team last year. It didn't make a difference for him. Once he took over the roll, he was very good. And where you're drafting him right now is at his floor. Where you're drafting him is basically... Where's he going? RB12. Yeah, RB12. I think that's about near his floor. Maybe he'll fall to RB 15. But like it's, you're not, you're not risking a top two pick. McKinnon did miss four of the last seven games of the year.

I don't know if it matters. I don't know how much those overlap with the same games that Pacheco missed because Pacheco actually missed several at the end. I think three of the 14 and 15. They missed those. Okay. Those are the two weeks that McKinnon was back and did some stuff. So that's interesting. Definitely not as integral last year, McKinnon as he was the season before. So Pacheco having a floor of 12, though, feels pretty spicy. Yeah, I mean, I put his floor at 15. He's being drafted at 12. Can he get 16? No, no way. His floor is 15. All right. Now you heard it here. Mike, Mike actually got a name in so quick that I was furious with him. So it just means you're in agreement here. I am in agreement. So shut up. It's George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who is going as the wide receiver 29 right now on Sleeper. That's the.

like the second half of the fifth, 28th over on underdog in bestball. And the Pittsburgh Steelers have thus far, they're making a bet on George Pickens because he's their guy. They shipped Deontay Johnson out of town. Right now the lineup is George Pickens. Then you have Van Jefferson, slotted as a starter. And then rookie Roman Wilson projects to be the starting slot wide receiver. But it's George Pickens is really the only proven player. You have Calvin Austin still? He is. Yeah, he's hanging around. Yeah, so that's another part. There's a, there's a lot of guys on like Scotty Miller's there. Quez Watkins is there. There's a whole bunch of guys. And then there's George Pickens. It's just, George Pickens is the one who we know who can actually like ball out and make highlight real catches. Yes, he absolutely vanishes.

A guy who put up 1140 yards in five receiving touchdowns somehow has a consistency score of D on our website. He had 63 catches to get the 1140 yards. That's crazy. Because during this season, you had the blockbuster event of week nine versus Tennessee where he had two receptions for negative one yard. And then you have week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals where he's four for 195 and two. It was very inconsistent last year, but the point is the Steelers are in on him, and when we saw him without Deontay Johnson last year, it's only four games, but he jumped from, you know, he jumped from 8.6 half-PPR points all the way over 14, from five targets to over 8, from 52 yards to 89 yards. I think that he is ready to make that jump. We can make all the jokes about Russell Wilson we want to.

but Russell Wilson is still better than Kenny Pickett. I don't know about that. Unlimited diarrhea. I can confidently say Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. I'm locking that. And you know what? Better than Mason Rudolph, which we had a pretty strong run there at the end for the Steelers when Pickens was actually putting up numbers. But historically speaking, year two is where we see. these wide receivers break out. If someone's going to break out into the top 24, the high percentage chances is coming in year two, and then year three and on. Year three is where you see like the first true ceiling of that player's career. And I get that it was inconsistent, but 1140 yards and five touchdowns on a really, really bad passing offense.

I'm so in on George Pickens. That's a breakout campaign to me. I've had such a hard, difficult time believing in George Pickens. I mean, we, Russell Wilson. And yeah, I mean, I love the splits where when you didn't have Deontay Johnson. Yeah. He was able to show it. But I do, I am a big believer in Roman Wilson. So I don't think they just, you know, when they lost Deontay Johnson, they lost them and they didn't get to just add someone. But now in the off season, they've brought in Roman Wilson, who I think is going to be the main slot guy.

I'm a little bit scared, but when I look at these numbers, it's like exactly what you just said. 1140 yards as a sophomore, that's great for a bad team. And now he's going into a third year where you do get rid of the primary, you know, target leader last year. So I will say this. I just did an underdog draft. I went, I started with Jamar Chase, so then I went RBRB. I needed my wide receiver two, and I was staring down two names as my wide receiver two. It was. And I know where Andy will be. So this question is for you, Mike. Okay. It was George Pickens or Christian Kirk. Ooh. And I made my decision. As your wide receiver two? Yes. I mean, if you're playing to win, the pick is George Pickens. Oh, I was not. You were playing to lose? Well, I mean, I was playing for second, Mike. I'm playing, like if I'm playing to win the underdog tournaments. No, it wasn't a full tournament. Oh, knowing you, like this is, I'm going to peel back the curtain. Jason, when he sees him in you,

Sometimes he wants a show more than he wants sustenance. 100%. Sometimes he wants a show more than he even wants taste. Correct. And you're sitting here and George Pickens is the best thing on the menu. They're going to bring it out. It'll probably have some smoke, some fire, table side preparation. I mean, Christian Kirk is the, it's the, it's up some soda water. I love Christian Kirk, but yeah. I'm trying to eat healthier though right now. And I feel like if you're just talking about like a healthy meal. That's got to be Krisha Kirk. Yes. Yes, that is sure. Of course. Of course. So, you know, nutritionally speaking, but his-Kirg's a better wide receiver. Nutritionally speaking, sure, but nobody really enjoys that life. But if you're looking for- Are you enjoying your life a lot more now that you're eating healthy? Yeah, I am. Oh, yeah. It's because you're coherent during the show. Right, yeah. One quick last thing. So over the last decade, 13 wide receivers have hit 1,000 yards before turning 23. Then in year three,

the 17 game pace of those wide receivers, about 13 points per game, which puts you right around wide receiver 18. And again, that's on average. Some were better, some were worse. But George Pickens is being drafted as almost the wide receiver 30. That's silly. I think his 80, the way you feel about Calvin Ridley's ADP, I feel like that about George Pickens. Maybe he doesn't get where we think, where we hope and dream he can get. But to be drafted, at the bro why we're 30 we're pickin's pals okay yeah all right we're going to the grave with we're having the show at the side of the table jason can eat his like whatever his salad that he orders pickens basket no were you trying to do like a yogi bear thing picnic yeah it was yeah it didn't work no okay all right keep keep trying a pickinins basket that's what i thought you're doing uh luckily i got this button and we can move on

sleepers oh boy um i got a name for you deep sleeper but oh man i hope i was really thinking he had a good nickname for george pickens i was excited uh not better than that one um i'm going to go with jermaine burton wide receiver for the cincinnati bengals this year undrafted so i think if it's a sleeper category when you're not being drafted third round draft pick right Tons of potential, went to Georgia for a couple years, then he came out of Alabama. They were extremely excited to be able to land him in the third round. Do you know how many receptions T. Higgins had last year for this roster? I bet you can't even guess it. Not only do I not know, I don't even know where to guess. Like 70? Okay, that's a neat guess. Yeah, I was going to guess around 70. What if I told you it was 42?

Oh, man. No, that explains things of my team last year. He got 42 passes for this offense. He's the one that's back. He was injured twice in 2021, once in 2022, three times last year, and they're shipping him out of town after this season is over. Franchise tag. Tyler Boyd, who is gone, who's abandoning targets, had 67 receptions last year. Tyler Boyd also ran the 14th most routes in the league. The person that's leaving is actually the more important person in terms of stamps and opportunities last year for the Bengals, not T. Higgins, who has his place, but we know what T. Higgins is going to do. 994 yards, 60-something catches, a bunch of good games that Mike forgot to play them on, and then bad games when Mike plays it. So, Jermaine Burton is this big play waiting to happen with a 20-yard A-dot. Just, guys.

Guys, his average depth of target last year was 20 yards. He is. That is ridiculous. I don't think any of us think of Tyler Boyd as a deep threat. Do you think of him that way? No. No. How many times have you seen Tyler Boyd running wild and free with Joe Burrough finding him down the field? There's been a handful of these times you're going, what in the world just happened? I think they really, really wanted Burton. They knew that he was the future. They knew that. Higgins was not going to get the contract that he wanted. And look, the last three seasons with Chasing Higgins out there, Boyd's average 91 targets. There is a void. A void void, my friends. Mike knew it was coming and he started laughing before I said it. And, you know, I think Burton is a really talented player. Last year we had our Puka and, you know, we've had Alman Ra the year before. Like there's some, there's a handful of rookie wide receivers. Maybe it's Roman Wilson this year in Pittsburgh as well to dissuade our.

Pickens' adoration. But Burton is primed. He's set up. Great quarterback play. You want to check that box. Great play caller. You want a great opportunity to be a valuable player on this team and to shape the next era of wide receiver play in Cincinnati, which will be chasing Burton. It's not going to be chasing Higgins anymore. So, you know, you've got missed games from Chase on the other side of this equation, too. It's not just been Higgins missing time. Chase misses time. One of those guys goes down at all. All of a sudden, Jermaine Burton is the number one free agent pickup of the week if it's an extended window, right? If you tell me Higgins is missing six weeks, we're all going to be fighting to get Jermaine Burton onto your roster. So I think he's a perfect sleeper category type of player for Cincinnati this year. And Mike, I know you really liked him from the scouting process. So I don't know if you guys have anything to add there. No, I think he's a really good wide receiver, landing in a...

perfect spot for dynasty purposes. He's very undervalued for where he should be. For redraft purposes, the same, but I do think it would take a little bit more like injury ahead of him for this season. The hardest part about the Burton redraft equation is that you generally, if it's a last pick, you want to see a guy that you know is going to have an opportunity in week one or two. We don't know that for Burton, but it could definitely happen because you could come into the season. You make him your last pick in your draft. and he catches an 84-yard touchdown in week one, and people are talking about him on the waivers, and he's already on your team. So I'm going to go with Burton for my sleeper pick. We'll take a quick break and come back with a couple more sleepers. All right, Mr. Moore. What's you got? My sleeper is rookie running back for the Green Bay Packers, Marshawn Lloyd. A couple weeks ago, we had a wildcard episode where we talked about Josh Jacobs. A lot of the things that I said on there apply.

Josh Jacobs could have a wonderful season. This is an offense you want to find the right pieces of. It's hard to know exactly who that is. But he could also have a bad season, considering he's coming off of one where Josh Jacobs, you know, was trending the wrong way efficiency-wise. Yards per carry 56 out of 69. Force miss tackle rate 51st out of 69, which used to be his calling card. You know, his 0.57 fantasy points per opportunity is the lowest of his entire career. And so that's obviously the starter here. But Marshawn Lloyd was drafted by this team and the team is really, really excited. He was in the third round. He's the fourth running back overall taken number 88. And if you look at the running backs taken in that range on day two over the last couple of years, there are some really big hits.

Whether it's Kenyon Drake, David Montgomery, David Singletary, Tajay Spears, Devon A. Chan, David Johnson, Kreme Hunt, Rashad White. Like, this is a place in the NFL draft where quality backs are going. Daniel Jeremiah's number one running back going into the draft was Marshaun Lloyd. This is not like just, this isn't one of those backs where it's like, oh, you know, Vidal Sassoon, we love, maybe there's an opportunity. I, there's no way I want to know his real name anymore. I mean, and you don't need to. Is it Kamani? Yes. Kamani Vidal. Sasson Su, just. Delete Kamani. Just delete Vidal. It's just that soon. But, you know, it's not some day three pick that's like, you know, we're always hopeful. Any injury can propel any rookie running back up ahead of him. But Marshawn Lloyd is a really good running back who landed on a really good offense. And this is an offense that uses a split committee. So even without an injury ahead of him, he's going to get opportunities. And he is the explosive athlete on this team. And you don't have to take my word for it.

You could take the word of the Packers because they're saying stuff like this. Here's Adam Stenevich talking about him. He said, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He's got a skill set that's a little bit different than AJ as far as his speed. Yeah, you think? Then AJ Dylan? Yes. He's not quite the bruiser he is, obviously, but he's got a different skill set. So it'd be nice to get him the ball in space, see what he could do. I think we're going to add a good explosive element to our offense for sure. He continued on.

Said again, I like his speed. That's his calling card. He's 4-4-6 at 220 pounds. I liked his speed a lot. He had some good runs at OTA where you saw his burst. He's got good vision. So I'm really excited about seeing him out of the backfield. And then the GM, Goodikun, was saying he's got serious speed. Man, I want to make you say that GM's name about five times. He's very elusive. He's got great balance. So he's a little bit different. This is my favorite part. He's very elusive. He's got great balance. So he's a little bit different than some of the other backs we have on the depth chart right now. Who could that be? I mean, both coaches are like, or the GM and the offensive coordinator are like, yeah, man, he's got speed. And that's different than our running backs. When I heard you talking about Marshall Lloyd relative to Josh Jacobs, I had one instant thought to something that happened last summer. And it was because I see the situations as potentially parallel and that does not, because they can go both directions.

hear the talk about Marshall and Lloyd the way that we were talking about Tank Bigsby. Certainly. And in, in, uh, and, um, Travis ETN. Yeah. And so then I said to myself, I go, wait, yeah, but where was, where was Tank Bigsby drafted? I would love the same pick. Same exact pick in the draft. So that's the, the, the fear is that the, the obvious starter that got the money. Um, You know, we have the excitement and the hope for Marshawn Lloyd. I think a lot of it comes down to the starter. Now, the one thing that is different here, though, is that ETN was used as a bell cow. And no running back, not even Aaron Jones, who's been great, is used as a bell cow for Green Bay. That's just not. Yes. I mean, you know, the head coach comes out, says that all the time. His philosophy is that he doesn't want to overuse any back. So Marshall and Lloyd will get on the field.

And I think that this is a really smart offensive system. We saw Jordan Love take that step forward. That's why I let off with the Josh Jacobs stuff, because if Josh Jacobs has not lost anything, if he fat thawed last year and then comes back and his full Thor, yeah, I mean, he is the dude. He's going to be a great draft pick for fantasy. And Marshaun Lloyd will hopefully be what AJ Dylan was a couple of years ago as a backup. You don't want fat Thor. No. You don't want half Thor. You want full Thor. I want Fat Thor. I want Fat Thor back. Because you want Lloyd. Because I want Marshall. Marshawn Lloyd to do well. Morshan. I like, look, I think Marshawn Lloyd's going to get touches. It's last year's evidence of A.J. Dillon continually playing despite having other running backs on the team. And they would keep going to AJ Dillon. But I do have one more unfortunate piece of news for you, Joe. Oh, no. So.

Marshawn Lloyd, pick 88. Tank Bigsby, pick 88. There's another running back that was pick 88. Yeah, he's actually one of your dynasty selections. Trey Serman was also, is this the cursed pick? Is it literally, like all the picks right around that spot are great. But the, if you're on 88, I don't know, man, that is, that is really bad news. And that's great analysis. We need to make a note that if Marshaun Lloyd is a failure, then we're, I'm out on pick 88. Here's the truth about these opportunities for any of these young running backs that aren't day one. you know, picks. You better make the most of your beginning. That's what under, that's what took Tank Bigsby and cast him into the abyss. He made the most for the other team out of his opportunity. He fumbled on the goal line and he threw the ball into their hands. Like if you don't capitalize early, your opportunity's over. They do have other backs that can come in. And if the goal is just to spell Josh Jacobs, they can do that with somebody else. He's got to be.

an early impact player on his touches. And if he does that, the rotation changes. So it's definitely an interesting name, a ton of talent. Interesting offseason for Green Bay and what they did at the running back position because, you know, they just rebuilt it. I mean, that's a high draft capital pick. They had a lot of money that no one saw going to Josh Jacobs from Green Bay. They had A.J. Dillon on the field a lot. And they aren't dumb. You know what I mean? They saw it and they're like, guys, we should do something about this. But you want pieces of this offense. Like this is a, this is an ascending offense. If you get the right piece, then you're going to be very happy. Speaking of that, I gave you that. Dantavian Wix is the sleeper I want to talk about. Look, we've, we've put off talking about Dantavian Wicks as long as we possibly could. But.

Now, it just, it has to happen because the rumblings are too strong for what could be. This is, again, this is a sleeper pick. He is being drafted in the 70s over on Sleeper, wide receiver 60 currently on Underdog. He was a fifth round pick out of Virginia, so we were already like, well, I mean, at least for the later picks, the fifth round guys seem to be the ones that find their way onto the field. But his story. is, you know, a gigantic year as a junior. There was, you know, some of the unfortunate tragedy over at Virginia, and then things just fell apart for him for his senior year. But he was drafted in the fifth round, partly because he showed out at the Senior Bowl if you're new to the off season. And the Senior Bowl is a huge event for seniors who are graduating.

But it's like it really highlights these guys. And the consistency of which when a player balls out at the Senior Bowl, we see it translate into players who just turn into really good NFL players. You know, you have, so when Wix was there, it was also Puka, Jane Reed, Tank Dell, Rishie Rice. These are guys who earn themselves money because their performance on the field, but then also getting to highlight those things at the Senior Bowl. And last year, what he did, seemingly out of nowhere, was actually very impressive. So from weeks 11 through 18, again, fifth round pick, it's going to take some time to get on the field, plus some injuries. But in that time span, his metrics, like his behind the scenes metrics are very, very good on only 101 routes in that time compared to like Romeo Dobbs, 193 routes. But in 101 routes, he saw 23 targets.

where Romeo Dobbs only saw 30 on 193 routes. And he put up, and Wix put up 280 yards with those targets, 16 receptions. His targets per route run, his yards per route run are at a point where it's you really have to pay attention to this guy because if he gets on the field, really good things could happen. Like Jane Reed, yeah, Jane Reed is the presumed number one wide receiver for this team. Like that's what he is in ADP. but the numbers should Don Tavian Wicks get on, which he has a couple paths to me. I need that. That's what I was going to ask you for us. I actually want the story. Yes. I need you to tell me the tale of the Dontavian Wicks season because I wanted to put Romeo Dobbs in here too. Right. Great, great off season for Romeo Dobbs by all accounts. Head coach coming out and talking about it. But I want you to just tell me, see the future for a minute, put on the time machine, put it on.

You put them on now? Yeah, so you wear it. Climbing the time machine and then come back and tell me the story. I have been crushed by the time machine. Tell me the story. Tell me the story of the season after you wear the time machine. So I think that he has a couple past. He's not, Jaden Reed is a. What was that? Sorry, that's my fault. That was a miss hit. I was trying to find a different drop. What other drop were you going to interrupt Mike with? I was going for that and just miss it. My bad. I heard the drop going. You heard all saying, oh. Yes. I heard. Man, hopefully it comes through the microphone. Where's Josh when you need him? But he's gone. But Jane Reed, Jane Reed's spot is safe. But it's like Christian Watson, who's been trying to fix this hamstring and Romeo Dobbs. Like to meet, those are two paths for Wicks to get on the field.

Also, just that they go with some four wide receivers. Wait, what were the paths that Watson's hurt or that Dobbs isn't good enough? Yeah, or just takes Christian Watson's job. Like the team gets tired of it. Like, we're not going to count on you anymore. You're not a reliable player. Your availability is an ability. And Watson just can't stay on the field. So I think that that's a path. Romeo Dobbs, maybe he's capped out. Yeah, he had a good season. And I think that he is actually a very fine sleeper as well. But I just wanted to highlight Wix that maybe he beats out Romeo Dobs and just takes his job. The team seems extremely bullish on Dantavian Wix. You can easily find sound clips, including the Matt LaFleur, comparing him to Devante Adams, like saying I see no shades of him in short area quickness. I think the sky's the limit for him, quite frankly. And yes, coach speak, but.

like the team seems to really like him and the fact that when he got on the field that's not no that's not bad that's not bad i know what you're saying i don't mind that okay but but when he got on the when he got on the field just his numbers were were so good of he became a go-to player automatically for jordan love so that's that's to me is the thing he has to get on the field which is why he's a sleeper and not really being drafted very high or drafted at all. But if he gets on the field, I think that magical things will happen. Yeah, I really love this sleeper. It costs you nothing. He's undrafted. You try to get a piece of this offense. And his actual per route metrics are outstanding. He's a really good wide receiver. And if you watched the quote, don't just read it, but watch LaFleur talk about him.

He's very level-minded. He knows he's not trying to compare him to Devante Adams, but he's talking about the specific things that remind you about him and that it's a genuine, like it genuinely reminds him of him because of the way he does certain things at the line of scrimmage and, more importantly, off the field, his work ethic and that type of stuff. So this is a guy that the coach loves, and if he gets on the field, he's going to be good for fantasy. Yeah, I think that that whole offense, the hardest part for everybody that. during the summer right now, he's just kind of understanding what dominance might look like from specific players in the offense. I think we can all pretty easily understand how the offense can function to be successful in general with a bunch of people touching the football. It's just a matter of now, you know, you've got a rebuilt running back room. You're going to get back Musgrave. You've got contributions from Kraft. And now you've got four or five names in the wide receiver room that are like,

Are you a superstar? Jaden Reed? Maybe. Are you a superstar Dantanian Wings? You could be. Christian Watson, did you fix your running in balance? Because you were a superstar for a minute. And then, you know, I think we all agree. Dobbs is probably not a superstar, but he's a, maybe a two. He's a fine two. Bill Melton. Oh, the Butterman. Yeah. I'm all about Boat Mountain. Why do I never remember why he calls him the Butterman? Because he's Melton. Oh, no. Yeah. No, it's not complicated. No, it's Brits low-hanging fruit. That was from, that was from a podcast. That was a lot of fun. Also, Jeremy. Oh, this show's good. I got you covered. Against man coverage, Wix was the best in football at creating separation open on. Oh, that's why he hit it. I was just a touch early. Yeah. You found a 55 step for him.