NFC West Breakdown + Dinner Dates, High Ceilings - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/14

Yes. Wow. I know it is. Wow. When you think about the Cardinals with, you know, an MVP candidate and Kyler Murray last year who's gotten better at eight and a half to have a Tray Lance led 49ers out here with a projected win total of 10 seems. I think you get an extra win and a half if you have Kyle Shanahan as your coach. I agree. So I think that's what it comes down to. Confidence. I mean, there were 31st in pace of play last year, 13th and points per game under Jimmy Garoppel, seventh and total yards.

And you should lose a game and a half for having Cliff, so that makes sense. Okay, it's one direction or the other. I also agree. Yeah. But, I mean, to be seventh and totally yards and have an offense that was in the top half in points per game and then just kick the quarterback out the door and say, hey, we're moving on, you know, you have a system in place, right? You have something that you have confidence in with Kyle Shanahan, the weapons around him, Elijah Mitchell, George Kittle, Debo, Samuel, Brandon Ayyuk,

They are an efficient offense. That's what they've been under Kyle Shanahan. It's impressive. Elijah Mitchell's going to dominate. That's where I'm at right now. Can we get that chopped up and saved? I'm starting to be on that side too. No, I think, look, it's all lined up. I remember when he most was going to dominate. Going back, historically.

Every year, the 49ers have a new running back. It happened last year, and it was a surprise in Elijah Mitchell. So I think there's a lot of fear that it won't be Elijah Mitchell. There's not a lot of draft capital. They are fine saying, nah, let's go with the next guy. Kyle Shanahan don't care. He will do whatever he thinks is best for an individual game plan, yada, yada. But Elijah Mitchell...

was a revelation. He was, he fit the system perfect. He explodes through the hole and he's younger, you know, he was like the new moster. He had the most elite usage of any Shanahan running back in San Francisco from week 10 and through the playoffs, 20 plus opportunities in seven straight games. Now, he couldn't handle that workload and got injured. And so there is that fear. I don't think Elijah Mitchell's going to play 17 games, but I don't think most running backs are going to play 17 games.

He's going at the 5-6 turn right now for a guy that can, what are you going to do if you bring in a mobile quarterback, right? This isn't a pass catching running back already in Elijah Mitchell. This is a guy who's just bursting off big chunk plays. You bring in a mobile essentially rookie quarterback this year who doesn't have the experience and you are a great running team. They're going to run the ball nonstop. They're going to jam it down your throats and Elijah Mitchell's first guy up.

Yeah, I mean, Lance is going to take away touchdown opportunities. That's absolutely going to happen. And then the other issue was the shoulder, ribs, concussion, finger, knee, which was the five injuries he suffered last year, which they did invest in a, they drafted a running back. They did. Which was Davis Price, right? Yes, Ty Davis Price. The thing to me, when looking at the 49ers, this year's running back room, looking at the history of the running backs that have had success for Kyle Shanahaners under San Francisco.

Elijah Mitchell injuries absolutely a challenge for the missile. But the guys in the room with Elijah Mitchell, I know that Shanahan, they're the people that keep bringing these other running backs in, but they don't like that archetype of, like, Ty Davis Price is not fast. Trace Serman is not fast. Why they draft them? I don't know. I do not know. This is the problem with that premise is that if we were here last year and we were talking about.

The running backs in the room with Rahim Mostert, not one of us would have talked about Elijah Mitchell. That's the problem I have is that somebody else earns the trust in training camp. You don't know behind the scenes, were they happy with Mitchell's recovery from injury? Were they unhappy with it? Fair. So I'm just coloring in the other side of the argument. I actually agree with you guys. Like right now, like I would.

Go Elijah Mitchell, I think, over Cam Acres. And they're going at the same place. I was going to ask you guys that. Which of those two guys do you have more confidence in? Because that's about where they're both going. That's a very difficult question. Same division. Question marks on both teams. I think I go Acres. I think by the time that drafts roll around and I've seen this on Underdog right now, I think Elijah will be going behind Acres and I'll take the value.

in Elijah Mitchell. Debo. Debo was dominant last year. You can't tackle him. He plays two positions if you need him too. Yeah, he did it the second half of last year. And what is that? Only three of us 16 touchdowns came within.

10 yards? They're all deep, long touchdowns. Oh, they're so delightful for fantasy. They're delightful for fantasy, but they are hard to repeat. It's not like James Connor, who's assured of getting 15. No, they're not that hard for Debo. It's like Tyreek. Oh, he's a man. I mean, thank you. I mean, I don't know. I don't know if I would doubt. Like, what was this total touchdowns last year? Do we have that? Six and eight? 16. 16 total?

Yeah, see. Would he throw a couple or something? Including the playoffs. Okay, I see six. We don't include the playoffs. Yeah, come on. We don't include the playoffs. It's a fantasy football show. What about you had the year before, too? Why is Kyle here? Good grief. Go home. Six and eight, 14. Good math. That's a lot. That is a lot. That is more than what you would expect.

I know he was one of the players that, you know, had a very, very high touchdown rate over expectation. So he outperformed. But some of these great players, they year after year outperformed, not to the degree Debo did this year. And there is the giant question mark here of change at quarterback. You should be more, in my opinion, we should be more confident of Debo than we are as a fantasy community. Okay. Because he's a great player with a great head coach.

You know, you make a transition to quarterback that has you kind of going, what's going to happen? Well, here's what's going to happen. They're going to go into the game, and then they're going to get Debo the ball a bunch of times, and they don't care. Like, he's at least capable of getting it in ways that a lot of other wide receivers aren't capable of getting the ball. He can be in the screen game. You can pitch him the ball out of the back field. You're not going to see them run this offense on the back of Brandon Iyuk. It's going to be on the back of Debo. It's going to be on the back of Kiddle.

And I think we need to, I think we should have more confidence than we do. I would agree with all of your premise in this, in the sense that Kyle Shanahan is going to form game plans. And it's funny, the way that he designs plays to get a specific play to a specific player, and that is Debo or Kittle. It's not Ayuk. Iyuk is, you know, is the second read. And so Debo will get enough.

work enough targets to be fantasy relevant and he's super hard to tackle. Right now he's not being drafted as, you know, a first rounder. You can get him at the two, three turns sometimes. So I'm fine taking Debo there. I still, I still personally worry about the injury history. I know he played last year and was great, but, you know, he does have a long track record of breaking down. So I have that fear and I don't know if that's,

It's not fair. I mean, yeah. I would say that's not fair. Yeah, I would say it's not fair. I said it first, though, so I get full credit. You can't hurt me. Elijah Mitchell, who you like a lot, got hurt five separate times last year. Nice counter argument. And about building game plans around George Kittle, unfortunately, you can't do that when he's on the bench. And he was hurt again and still banged up. So.

Yeah, it's tough. And then with the Trey Lance, I mean, it seems like that the whole arm strength thing was just baloney, at least the way that his teammates are talking about it, or not the arm strength, arm fatigue, worries. I think people maybe, maybe myself included, they're searching for the negative on Trey Lance because it's more entertaining. It's more interesting as a storyline when a team fails with the number three pick in the draft. Like that's just kind of like, oh, man.

Kyle Shane and screwed something up? I can't believe it. For us, we are Cardinal fans, so when the 49ers fail, it does feel good. But I have full confidence that Trey Lance is going to be the starter. I am very confident that he is going to be fantastic for fantasy football, not just based on the legs. He has a rocket ship of an arm and he will throw the ball down the field.

Just an absolute elite average depth of target in the small amount that we've seen, which small sample. And then, like, Warren Sharp had, like, a really interesting write-up. Warren Sharp has this huge book out right now, and he was highlighting how quarterbacks under Kyle Shanahan, they're always top 10 in expected completion rate because Kyle Shanahan is just such a master at scheming good.

easy completions, recognizing how important that is, and that just giving you even more confidence. Maybe Tray Lance is going to be a raw prospect right now because he's barely played any football. He's going to be the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL in his second year in the NFL. But the system is set up for him to succeed so well and be a potential fantasy monster. Yeah, you brought it up on our last show, Andy, the question of should 100,

percent of the time you'd be taking Trey Lance, even if you already have another quarterback, his ceiling is enormously high. And I love getting Trey Lance as. Cathedral levels. Oh, yeah. You're talking 45 feet in the main area. In the main area? Yes. The big room. You know, the cathedral big room that they call it.

The main area. In the cathedral area. Up where Quasimodo's at. Right. Yeah. You don't want to see him. You put him up in the 45 foot rafters. No, that's the Leveon Bell Tower. Man. The main room. Is George Kittle, last closing the book on San Francisco, is George Kittles average draft position, which is the late third as the fourth titan off the board? Is that palatable?

for you this year because of the difference he can make. Are you kind of, you don't want to be the guy that lost the injury gamble at tight end in the third round? I am, George Kittle is probably the tight end I have the most of, of the big names. I'm not really willing to go first round on Travis Kelsey and most of the time there's players I prefer over Mark Andrews in the second.

in the leagues that I've been in, Kyle Pitts is the third being drafted, and then it goes Waller, and then Kittle sometimes is dropping to the fourth, the fifth. I've seen Kyle, you got him the other day in the sixth or seventh round. It was ridiculous. Kittle was the tight-in four last year, and when he puts up big games, they're monstrous. They are game-changing. They win the week for you. I think if Kittle slips in a draft,

He's going to end up on my roster. It's going to be Kittle or a late tight end for me this year. Yeah, the late third to me is, that's very acceptable. And risky, absolutely risky. So what kind of fantasy player are you? Where's Waller then, just ahead of him? And Sleeper, he's going behind him. Yeah, give me Waller. Really? Yeah, I've, I'm getting very excited about Darren Waller. Nice. Let's do it. Andy, you want to bet that one? Waller versus Kittle? Yeah, let's do it. Oh, that's a fun bet. Just need to find the button.

Waterbed. Yeah. I feel like the median score would favor the odds to Waller, but the upside is far more on George Kittles' side to me. Far more. Far more. Yeah, I mean, Kittles, the big play guy. Waller was a PPR machine, and now you got Devante Adams soaking up, what, 25 plus percent. Okay. All right. Not that I'm against Waller. No, I think we underestimate the value of.

a good play caller in Las Vegas and putting him in a good position to succeed because I don't know if you'd feel the same way about George Kittle if Mr. John Gruden was the head coach. Yeah, maybe. We'll never know. No, thank goodness. The Seahawks, let's talk about them. Seven and ten last year. The Russell-Wilson era is over. The 10.4 wins per year is probably over as well.

And, you know, Pete Carroll before Russ was 7 or 9 and 7.09. I just saw their win total. Their 2021 preseason. That was last year. Oh, thank goodness. They were nine last year with Russ. Oh, my gosh. I saw the wrong number. Okay, don't look then. Where do you think they are this year? I feel like they should be six and a half. Okay, Mike. Six. No, lower than both of those. Thank goodness. I saw nine in my, I was like, I was about to run to this.