Mid Round Madness + Waiver Tips, Leeches - Fantasy Football Podcast

He has one of the highest rates of wide receiver 2 plus games, one of the lowest rates of busting. He has the best quarterback or one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He's done it for two years in a row, and people don't want him. I don't get it. I would love for him to be my wide receiver 2 that I can get after having three running backs on my roster. You think it's a ceiling fatigue? Yes. Yes, it's a ceiling fatigue. It's he can't be a top 5.

wide receiver. I think it's that he just, like if you line the players up, like if he stands behind D.K. Metcalf, you literally, you can't see him. No, you can't. He just disappears. Or if he stands behind Terry McLaurin. Have you heard of? Sure. Or Julio. He's, I mean, Tyler Lockett is not. He's not a big boy. But he, if the targets came, let's just say this, the low passing volume, the low passing volume, he's been a top 15 wide receiver two years in a row.

No reason to think he won't be a top 15 wide receiver this year. But let's just say that the passing volume does open up, that Pete Carroll says, all right, Russ, you've been begging for me to let you really lead the offense. We're going to change. And I don't think that that's a zero chance. I think that they could let Russell greater than 2%. Yes, no. I think it's greater than 2%. But here's my point. Metcalf should benefit more from that.

As well. Yeah. I mean, every receiver would benefit if they let them throw the ball more. But the Lockett is not viewed as a superstar talent the way that other wide receivers are. And he is. The last 180 targets for Tyler Lockett, he has ended with 139 receptions, 2,022 yards, and 18 touchdowns.

If you compare that with the last 180 targets of Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, Michael Thomas would have 149 receptions, 1,700 yards, 9 touchdowns. Julio, 118 receptions, 1,600 yards, and 9 touchdowns. So on a per target pace, Tyler Lockett is incredible. He reminds me a lot of T.Y Hilton.

the perception of T.Y. Hilton as well, you know, a player that's probably underestimated from a pure talent perspective, in part because he's not prototypical in size, in part because, you know, Hilton's a smaller guy. He's probably the exact same size as Lockett. And both of those players don't fit the, I'm not Des Brian or Julio Jones, and I'm not Kenny Gallagher. Terry McLaurin. Who's seven foot four. Yeah, but, you know, those.

Those stats to me just show he is a star talent. If they open the offense up, he does have upside that I don't think we realize. And shout out to Jacob Rick Road on the 1808. T.Y. Hilton, 510, 183. Tyler Lockett, 510, 182. So I think I was kind of spot on there. I mean, if you were playing the game at the fair.

Yes. You would have won. If they put on each other's uniforms and swap teams, no one would notice. That's right. And it's a good point. I think at where he's going, you may see this every year because D.K. McCaff draws a lot of attention. And the ceiling fatigue isn't there with D.K. Mattcalf. The ceiling is unknown with D.K. Mattcalf. Ironically, that is the player who I thought when you were giving Julio's rookie year.

What was Julio's rookie year again? 950-something yards. Yeah, because D.K. Metcalfe was 907 and was big and ran out. Metcalfe was 900. Julio was 959. Well, it's interesting because we talked on yesterday's episode about confidence associated to quarterback. And that's where Metcalf stands out compared to a McLaurin is you have arguably the best quarterback. And if that's 2, 3, 4%, if you get unlimited.

Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf is going to do some damage, and he's going to do it in the end zone. That's the biggest thing. It's like Russ has shown that he can throw more touchdowns than everybody else on fewer passes. It is just in his DNA to do it. Sometimes at a very low probability, as announced by Mike Wright. Yes, yes, yes. So I'm going to throw Ronald Jones out there. It's been a long road for Ronald Jones and I. When he came into the NFL, he decided to make

take the rookie season off. Right now he's going in the eighth round. That's a ludicrous point for him to be going. If things stand as they are right now going into drafts, he's not going to be an eighth round draft pick. No, he's heating up. He's heating up. I mean, Arians came out and talked about the fact that this was yesterday. This was full-on hype trained material. Be careful with the news.

Yeah, no question. But Arian said, look, Ronald Jones is going to be the guy. All the anecdotal evidence of his offseason and the time he spent the efficiency that he showed in the offense last year. The comical part about Ronald Jones and where he's going in drafts right now is the fact that he was literally what he finished as, the running back 26 last year? I don't have that in front of me. I think he finished right around that 26 range. And he's being drafted. That's about where we have him.

I think that you have a situation with Ronald Jones where he's a guaranteed lock as a mid-round value because you don't get running backs. Running back 26. 26. Yeah, and he's being drafted at 36, according to the ADP data we have today, which I think is kind of probably not going to come to fruition. But I brought it up earlier. The fourth round running backs last year, they were Marlon Mack and Derek Henry. And...

Fantasy drafts. The fifth round running backs were Miles Sanders and Austin Eckler last year. That range of draft picks is a great place to find value at the running back position, regardless of whether you invested heavily or lightly on running back to start the draft. They're the hardest position to come by, and, you know, people want to project through two different lenses for Tampa Bay. And I think both of them could cause you some issues. One is the Bruce Ariens lens and what he does with the running back position.

Do we trust that? Or do we trust kind of maybe more the Belichick? Maybe you give credit to Belichick. Or maybe it's Brady that likes to have this mix of players. When he was in New England, the only thing you saw in the backfield for Brady's running backs was Big Boy, Ben Jarvis Green Ellis, Jonas Gray, LaGarrett Blunt, Stephen Ridley. And then that was always combined with pass catcher. Little boy. Shane, Dion Lewis, James White.

going back to Kevin Falk days. And so you've had that combination. And really, it's kind of shaping up to be that type of combination in Tampa Bay. So understanding what you get with Ronald Jones is I think you need to look at it through the lens if you're not getting a three down back under any circumstance. Yes, he was technically, statistically the best pass catcher out of the backfield. That's why you went out and drafted Kishon, Kishon Vaugh. That's why you paid for Lishon McCoy.

Bruce Ariens came out yesterday, talked about Ronald Jones. He talked about him as the guy. And that means first and second down to me. I think the best lens.

To look at the backfield for Tampa Bay is not to look historically at everything Bruce Ariens has ever done or everything Tom Brady's ever done. I think it's best to look through the lens of what will Tampa Bay be as an offense. Will they be able to move the football? Will there be scoring opportunities for this team? We think yes, they'll move the football. Yes, they'll be a winning team. Yes, they'll have goal-line opportunities. Those three things combined with, look, LaShawn McCoy is not going to be able to be a workhorse. Kishon Vaughn the rookie is not going to be able to be a workhorse.

For goodness sakes, Daria Gumbawale is not going to be your workhorse. Payton Barber is gone. That puts a basement to Ronald Jones that I'm really, really comfortable with. Certainly at RB 36 in the eighth round where he's going now, but all the way up into the fourth, fifth round, I don't remember where you took him yesterday, Jason, in our three wide receiver mock. Yeah, it was probably a perfect spot. Fifth or sixth round, probably the perfect spot. I just think it's kind of a garret. It's a no-brainer pick, and Ronald Jones in the same sentence, have not been

Certainly nothing that's going out of my mouth over the last couple years. When he was a rookie, it was a no-brainer pick. Right. You didn't pick him. You don't have a brain if you pick him. Either way. Absolutely. But it's kind of impressive to look at what happened last year and this offense not being in those positions all the time with Peyton Barber in the mix and seeing Ronald Jones has enough explosive plays to get you a top 26 finish in fantasy. So I think he's very, very safe this year, which is...

Kind of not necessarily the way you've looked at it. When you try to work out on murky backfield, you don't think there's a safe option. He feels very safe to me in the middle rounds. Murky back fields are where big step forwards come from. If you look back year after year and you go, we're not sure who's going to be the guy here. Oftentimes someone becomes the guy. And I do agree with the tape. It's also where swamp monsters live as well. You put your hand in. Sometimes it's covered in leeches. It's very murky. Sometimes you get the catfish. You ever gone swimming?

in like, you know, where you can't see anything. I have swam in some Minnesota lakes where people come out with leeches, yes. Oh, man. Gross. People, like, every time or like it's possible? I didn't. Thankfully, I know. Does that make a difference to you? Yeah, it makes a difference. Percentage odds? Would you swim in a lake with a 50% leach rate? If you're telling me that there's leeches in this water and someone has come out with one on them before, but, you know, people are swimming all the time and they're not coming out with them.

I'm like getting that water. Okay. But if this is like, hey, go swim, but you're coming out with leeches. My sister did, though. Oh, yeah, I'm out. No promises that you won't have a few leeches in the Ronald Jones situation. He's got leech potential. But, Mike, why don't you close us down on this mid roll madness? All right. Yeah, the name was already mentioned, but we got to talk about him. Wait, what's funny now. Midroll madness. Oh, is that what I said? Yeah. All right. That's funny. Whatever. It's all the same. Who cares? Nobody's listening anymore.

Look, I want to talk about DJ Chark, who is going in the middle rounds. He is going right now as the wide receiver 22 at the back of the fifth round. This is a player coming off a thousand yard breakout season. I am hot and bothered under the collar by DJ Chark. Jason's pretty close with me as well. Andy is more balanced on his view of DJ Chark, but even Andy's like being a little bit more hesitant.

still ranked way above his ADP. That DJ Chart to me is an absolute no-brainer pick. Last year he finished as the wide receiver 16 and a half point in a really rough situation. There was quarterback to mold. The team was not great. The defense was bad. And here's what he has going for him. I mean, number one, he was a second round pick. The draft equity was there. Look, we all missed on DJ Chart. Guilty.

I liked other players on this team. A lot of other fantasy players liked different wide receivers on this team. Yeah, D.D. Last year with Nick Foles. And Chris Conley was a big free agent acquisition. But DJ Chark, athletic monster, 6-4, 200-pound guy with top 4% speed. He's the one that broke out. I'm moving forward with that. They have Jay Gruden as the offensive coordinator. Jay Gruden offenses have finished in the top 15 and passing touchdowns.

in six of his nine seasons. They are very productive offenses. DJ Chark even had an ankle injury that derailed the last 25% of his season. They will have to win with offense. And this is my attempt to try and convince Andy. To move him into my top 12? No, no, no. No, no. Certainly not. But just have a little bit more confidence in him.

Because have a little bit more confidence in what Gardner Minshu actually did. I have far more confidence in Gardner Minchu as a quarterback than I do in Dwayne Haskins, when I'm talking about Chark and McLaurin, which is why I have Chark ranked higher. But here's some interesting stuff for Gardner Minshue. We love Kyler Murray. Kyle Murray looked like a very good passer. Looked like he's going to turn into a very good passer at the quarterback position.

Gardner Minshu averaged more passing yards per game than Kyler Murray. That includes the two games where he had to come in at relief. He didn't even get to play the whole game. He had more passing touchdowns than Kyler. He had a better pass rating than Kyler Murray. And this was with the Jacksonville defense already bad. They were the 21st ranked defense last year. He had more wins than Kyler. He had more wins than Kyler Murray. And here's the wild one. Now it's a little bit of a cherry-picked stat.

But I still like it. Love it. I still like it because it's fun. Only four rookies ever have thrown 20 plus touchdowns and under 10 interceptions their rookie year. Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III, Dan Marino, and Gardner Minshew. The dude was efficient. He had a bit of a fumbling problem. So that's why I'd say it's a bit cherry picked. He still turned the ball over. But when it came to passing,