Mid Round Madness + Waiver Tips, Leeches - Fantasy Football Podcast

some consideration for later opt-outs for players that have kind of extreme circumstances, change of circumstances is I think the phrase that I saw from the NFLPA, health could be something in the family. Right. But the general opt-out date is today at 4 p.m. Is there any other news that you guys want to talk about before we jump into our main segment? No, I think we're good. I said, get to the madness. Let's do it. Madness! That drop is...

Quite ironic for me today. Why is that? Well, just the timing of it was crazy because I turned on the podcast to listen to on the way into work was the hardcore history podcast with Dan Carlin. Oh. Talking about the Persians and the Spartans. Nice. So ties in pretty good. He said nothing about draft picks in the fourth to eighth round. Not a podcast I'll listen to. All right. Well, um.

Let's jump into it. Who wants to kick this thing off with their favorite player from the middle rounds? Well, I don't know that this is my favorite player from the middle rounds, but this is someone I wanted to talk about. I think he is a great target in the middle rounds, and I'll explain why. I mentioned him on yesterday's mock draft as being a good pick. One of you guys got him. I wanted him. But Kareem Hunt, running back for the Cleveland Browns,

is an excellent draft pick this year. I had someone on Twitter reach out to me and talk about, you know, when we were talking about the backups, your insurance options at Running Back, and we came up with the big three. Chase Edmonds, Alexander Madison, and Tony Pollard. The question was, what about like Latavius Murray? And my thought was Latavius Murray and Kareem Hunt, these are players who are gigantic insurance policies. They will be fantastic.

But they're not just that. They're actually better than those players. They're not drafted as a backup. No, you can get a start or two out of them. Well, you can get a start or two out of Latavius Murray. You can get a start every single week from Kareem Hunt. And that is the point that I'm making here today is that he's seen as this insurance.

option where if Chubb goes down, he's going to be great. And that is true, but that's what he's being drafted as he is so much more than that. Once he got back last season, he had 62.5% of his games as a top 24 back. That was the 15th best score. It was actually ironically tied with Nick Chubb. And that, you know, that stat is tied with Nick Chubb's entire season, including the games that he didn't have.

Kareem Hunt on the field with him. This is a guy in Kareem Hunt, who is an exceptional back. You know, if it wasn't for the off-the-field issues, he, Clyde Edwards-Alair wouldn't be a thing right now. And Kareem Hunt would be a top three, top four pick in fantasy football leagues.

But now he's relegated to the role he's in, but it doesn't take away his talent. And you saw that on the field last year. This is a guy who has been, I mean, look at his career right now. You had him come out as a rookie. He was the running back four. Then the following year, he was the running back 11. So both years.

a top 12 running back for fantasy football, and then last year, obviously, he was suspended the first half of the season, had his bye week, yada, yada. But when he came back, as the backup to Chubb, he was the running back 19. He was a running back two, week in and week out. You could start him, you could play him, and now they're talking about getting him involved.

as a receiving option even more. He's in the receiver meetings. He is, you know, he could be the third wide receiver or the slot wide receiver plenty of times. Oh, sorry. I don't want to cut you off, but I want to ask you a question. Yeah. Because yesterday on the show you were very vehement, you wanted Kareem Hunt to fall to you in the draft. Yes. Now, I think you would have had you not pressed so hard. It was my bad. It was your, because I think I was going to let him go. One of the.

things that I'm curious about, your perspective on Hunt is, look, you've come out and you've said you think O'Dell Beckham bounces back this year. They went out and they spent money on Austin Hooper, who's spending all this time with Baker Mayfield. We need Baker to take a step forward, except for the Stefansky offense produced 400 passing attempts last year. Is this a situation where, yes, Kareem Hunt, we know how talented he is? Are there going to be disappearing acts? Because if you have that many targets and he's not, you know, he's not Landry, Beckham, Hooper.

Got to be on the field. Chub has to be on the field. Are there going to be games where, you know, without a touchdown, Kareem Hunt disappears is my worry. Well, I think there will be games that he disappears. He had two busts games last year. But the thing is, is if you're talking about a guy in this range, a mid-round running back. Is this where you think he'll go, by the way? Absolutely. I do not. I do not think he will. Seven.

I don't think he will go much higher than this. He's been a value in every draft I've seen because of Nick Chubb. I just don't think people are going to really get on board and say, I need him. When you're in your draft and you're in those rounds, you're looking at your starting lineup and you're saying, man, there's a good starting wide receiver here, or maybe I'll grab a tight end or I'll, you know, I'll do these, these type of maneuvers where you're grabbing Hunt where you don't need him to start.

but on a buy week, on a flex, on a good matchup, you can start him anytime you want. And he is a home run league winning pick should something happen to Nick Chubb, who has been injured before and gets a ton of work. And to speak a little bit to your question about, well, I think O'Dell Beckham's going to bounce back. The offensive line has gotten so much better. Maybe there will be fewer passing attempts and the receiving options are...

what really make Hunt valuable because he's such a great receiving back, but as the offense gets better, it's only good for running backs usually, more scoring opportunities down near the goal line. For Nick Chubb? Well, sure, unless what happened last year with Nick Chubb's incredible inefficiency inside the 10-yard line says, maybe we use this.

This guy who, you know, led the NFL in Broken Tackles his rookie year and is great. Chub was so bad inside the five last year. It was really funny. So I do, I like Cream Hunt, his value where he's going right now. You don't need him to start. You can start him. And he's a league winning option, which those are the picks that you really need to be looking for. And, you know, we've talked a lot about the depth mattering more because of COVID. Maybe it's not an injury. Maybe something happens and, you know, Chub has to take three weeks off.

Boom, bam, you've got a great option in Hunt who would be, what would you say? If Chubb was gone, if he, you know, right now said he's opting out in the next hour, where would Hunt go in the draft? Behind Clyde Edwards-Alair, probably running back 9, 10, 11? He would be a second round pick at the latest. Would you pick if that situation happened, Aaron Jones or Kareem Hunt? Yeah, I would take Kareem Hunt. I would take Kareem Hunt.

He would be at the back of the first to me. It's tough for me between those two. But that's fair. Yeah, I mean, and where he's going now, if that's where he goes, I mean, it fits the Echler style mold where you, yes, you can see problems. Echler might not get it around the goal line, blah, blah, but Cream hunts a weapon. So, yeah, I wonder where he will go on draft day. Also, most important, today is his birthday. Happy birthday. Oh.

Let me guess, 25. Everybody's 25. He is, as of today, 25. Oh, very nice. Well, what a guess. I want to bring up Hollywood Brown. We've talked about him a lot on the show, so I want to bring something a little bit different to the equation. He's right now being drafted, according to Judge Giamati, in the late seventh round. I don't think that's where he's going to go at all. Probably higher or lower. Higher.

Yeah, I think he'll go higher. And I understand it. I mean, you're on one of the best offenses in football. When he was on the field, he was extremely effective, big play type of guy. So I guess I'm going to start a fire and throw a little water on it. But I want this middle. It's a strange technique. No, the technique is important because when you're... Because you want steam. That's what you want. That's exactly right. That's the whole point of the men around, steam. Right. No, the illusion that you could be under.

The mistake that you could make with a mid-round pick is to draft the player and believe he's something he's not, right? And you have to have a realistic expectation of what you're getting when you add Hollywood Brown to your team from an upside perspective. Jason's talked extensively. He's probably going to end up in one of Jason's my guy spots. And right now he's a seventh round draft pick. But what are you actually, what's the upside for Hollywood Brown?

coming into season two. He ended up injury plague last year. It was the 46th wide receiver in his rookie season. I just wanted to take a look back and illuminate a little bit. Looking back at the draft class in 2017, looking at the draft class in 2018, all the wide receivers taken in the first three rounds for those two draft classes. What kind of jumps did we see from year one to year two? And that's 23 wide receivers. The 2017 draft class had players.

like Chad Williams and Amara Darbo and Kenny Galladay. Oh, all right. Yeah. And Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, and a bunch of big names. But what was interesting to me, I went back and looked with no preconceived notions. I just wanted to see what kind of jumps took place. You had jumps last year. The big one would have been Cortland Sutton. Yeah. He went from 51. This is your fantasy finishes in a half point. 51 to 19. Okay? The biggest jump was DJ Chart.

finished the year at 16. That's pretty close to the highest finish you've seen from anybody coming into year two over the last two years. The only player to finish as one was Juju. He was the 16th ranked wide receiver his rookie year, nine in his second year, and that was a year in which Pittsburgh threw the ball more than anybody in football. Sure. A slightly different situation than Hollywood. Everybody else, here's the ceilings that you get coming into year two, even for the Calvin Ridley's, Gallup,

Cooper Cup injury plagued. Chris Godwin jumped up to 20. Goladay up to 21. Curtis Samuel 48. Mike Williams up to 24 with the big second year jump. You didn't see any of these players make the wide receiver one leap. So you just have to understand when you're getting Hollywood Brown, there's so much excitement around it. But with the low passing volume, I think you just need to know that you're drafting a player that ceiling is probably, now we have them ranked. I wanted to bring this up. We have them ranked.

Mid-20s. 29, 25, and 28. I think his ceiling is to finish at about wide receiver 20, which is an amazing value to get in the late seventh round. But if his ADP starts rising, if he gets, if all the hype of year two excitement, we saw this with some players last year, we saw this with Juju, it's just something to be aware of, in my opinion.

Yeah, I think that's tempering the expectations. I love Hollywood. He probably is going to be one of my my guys because he's got the trifecta of I think they're going to pass the ball a little bit more. He is definitely going to be healthier and the year two leap of just getting better. Which he should. Yeah, absolutely. But, you know, I don't think he's going to be a wide receiver one. The passing volume doesn't seem to be there. So his upside is probably kept. How far back did that that go? Just the last two sets of rookies.

that allowed for two years. So four, okay. So last 23 players drafted in the first three rounds at wide receiver, which was a bit of a blast from the past. Dante Pettis. Oh, hey. Brooks is my guy. Yeah, Trequan Smith is in that category. He's fast. Zay Jones. Oh, yeah. Tayon Taylor. I did like Tayon Taylor. Carlos Henderson.

Oh, Carlos Henderson. Yeah, but those players I kind of threw out of the, out of the mix, because they didn't show up for year one, so you're probably not showing up for year two. Right. But no, I mean, Hollywood Brown, not to, you know, just don't think that you can punt wide receiver, is my point, and end up leading your, I don't think you can lead your team with Hollywood Brown. Let's say you go heavy RB, and then you're looking at him as your one. I think that would be a mistake. Okay. I think he's a good two, and his ceiling is that 20 range.

And the injury thing is something to be aware of too. But last year on pace for 125 targets before the injury. And obviously Lamar Jackson loves him. And then there's the Antonio Brown piece of the puzzle too. Sure. Yeah. I mean, he is right now the back of the seventh. So let's say he raises up and he costs you an early seventh. He can still be, he could be your wide receiver four easily at that point. So you're not drafting him to rely on him. And I do think that he's going to be a little bit more volatile.