The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy WRs + Big Love - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/1

over the first half, you know, some of the games after the bi-week leak into that. But the way that the season started for C.D. Lamb was really hot and cold. And, like, if you had, if you drafted Lamb, you remember, like, it was not all roses. You had week three, he was the wide receiver, 43 against Arizona. Like, that was, but that was, it was also very strange because the Cardinals won the game and the Cowboys just got shellacked. To next week, he's pretty good against New England. And then the Cowboys against San Francisco, it's a disaster for C.D. Lamb. And then the offense changed. The question for me about C.D. Lamb for you guys is, was this a true, was this like the level up for C.D. Lamb? Or it was just, he's great. He's an elite player. But this was something special. Or we're now.

putting him at a different level. This is who he is. He is one of the, you know, absolutely one of the five best wide receivers in the NFL. He's going to be treated as such. He's going to be used like it. Their offense was great doing this, and he's just unstoppable. I mean, there's certain guys, you know, like, you know, you're never going to go away from Justin Jefferson if you have a coordinator change. And in my opinion, C.D. Lamb looked. unstoppable. You just keep throwing on the ball. It just keeps working. He's open. If he's not open, he still catches it. He's just so good. And from that point, from that by week forward, he was not, he was the number one wide receiver, obviously. But he was a huge gap ahead of number two. You know, he scored 23.9 half PPR points per game during that stretch. The second best was 17.4. He was.

humongously ahead of the field. What I loved about C.D. Lamb and the fact that, look, you keep your head coach, right? That's a big deal. If you wanted to question the variables, they're going to have the same quarterback. You're going to have the same head coach, and it really, really worked. And they move him around. If you watch the games. Yeah, they do. They move him all the time. Like, there is no scheming, like, I guess Tyreek is in that category of, like, you can't really scheme yourself out of having to deal with Tyreek. But C.D. Lamb moves all over the formation. He comes out of the slot. They, you know, put him in the backfield sometimes. Like his, he's just too integral into this offense that I agree with Jason. I think he has fully leveled up. I mean, this was a season of seasons, too. Like that 2021 Cooper Cup year, that's the only one that is at that 135, you know, reception total, 12 touchdowns. I mean, that superstar wide receivers are going to have some variability in touchdowns from year to year.

So it's not going to shock me if C.D. Lamb has nine next year, eight, or, you know, wherever the case may be, but the volume will always be there. So third in deep perceptions, third and intermediate, first and short, do you have, dynasty-wise, it's been, for the last couple years, it's been the big two. It's been Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. Is C.D. Lamb there, or is it those two guys, then C.D. Lamb, and then we have a third tier. No, he's there for me. Okay. I'm comfortable with him there, yeah. All right. Like, I mean, if you just muse for a second. Of, like, having Jamar Chase and C.D. Lamb on one dynasty team? You want to imagine what that'd be like? Why'd you do that, Andy? Why'd you walk into that trap? Yeah. And C.D. Lamb should be on my dynasty team. No, no, he's good. He's where he belongs. With the chain. You never paid me for talking him into the trade, by the way. Yeah, well, I had my fingers crossed.

You know, where was I going there? Oh, sorry. I was going with how you were going to draft those three. That's what I, in a redraft league, how are you going to look at those three players? And like, are you taking Jefferson Chase ahead of Lamb and all of all three of us doing that? Wow. I think I am, I think in a redraft, I'm Jefferson Lamb Chase. I would as well, except in a redraft, I might have Tyreek above Chase as well. Yeah, no, no, I agree with that. just here in, you know, January 31st looking at next year. Jefferson still has a quarterback issue that needs to be solved. Speaking of Tyreek Hill, he was the most consistent wide receiver in all of fantasy football. He's number two in fantasy finish. His first half of the year was number one most consistent. Second half of the year he was number two most consistent. Zero bus games. Zero. Yeah. Other than, you know, injury games we don't count.

75% good, 56% great. Like he won weeks regularly, especially looking from like week 5 to 13. I mean, it is, it is hard to do what he did. He was very similar to his teammate, where he Moster, who had one of the best seasons, one of the most helpful fantasy seasons. We've seen him forever, but ruined. The only downtime was in the playoffs where he missed week one of the playoffs. and then didn't really go his normal self in the championship round. So, you know, it felt like it tailed off at the end, but it really didn't. It was just an injury that he played through and was still good. He deserves to be, until he retires, he deserves to be at the tip top of confidence. Yeah, and obviously at the very top of these lists, you don't need us to tell you these players were great. But when you have the opportunity to break down the numbers a little bit,

see why they were great. You know, he won people fantasy championships or got them all the way there. And he was an undefendable player. I mean, just destroys man coverage, destroy zone coverage. He was, we watched him all year long and just went like, oh, how's he that open? He had 21 receptions of 20 or more air yards, which is more than any that he had. playing La Patrick Mahomes and 70% of his receptions went for a first down. He's the only player since Randy Moss where you're just like a D ball is going to work this game, every game. Yeah. Like you would think that you could turn that off. Like you could somehow turn off Tyreek Hill going deep and you can't. I think him and Tua before the game go, okay, okay. What's today? Is today a throw it?

you know, vastly underthrow it, or you want me to vastly overthrow it? And then they just do that. And they both work. They both work. Just don't throw it to them. Throw it really far away from them in either direction. It will slow down or speed up and get the ball. So I think, I think we can move on. Number three, Alman Ross St. Brown. This one's great. This was a player drafted as the wide receiver nine, ends at three. Consistency, three. First half? Three. Second half? Three. I mean, that's consistent. That's, I mean, amazing. So finishes at three, third most consistent. Didn't matter how he split the year up. 81% good games, 31% great, 6% bust, 119 receptions for 1,15 yards. You know what? I didn't realize he was this good. Ah, yes. 10 touchdowns, 164 targets. It's perfect. This was a heck of a year, and he has just,

leveled up every season. Like the chip on his shoulder, when you have a chip on your shoulder, does it get bigger over time or smaller overtime? Most people get smaller over time. But his is getting... He continues to add to it. Like finds another Jordan reason to be upset. Yeah. So he went from 90 receptions to 106 to 119. My favorite part about Alman Rae St. Brown is it's done in a completely different fashion than Tyreek. But the consistency is there because... You know how much of the first read he is in this office, and you can't really guard what he does. It's different. Tyreek does it with speed, Aminara does it with route running and great hands, where it's just the play is coming to you at this exact spot in this exact moment, and there's just no way you could stop it. So I don't have any fears of...

Amin Ra, you know, finding his way to some coverage that's going to stop him next year. I don't think there's any fear at all. So you've got to just be. And he keeps Ben Johnson. Yeah, he keeps Ben Johnson. And I really love the splits, you know, like where Jared Goff is a pretty streaky, hot, cold quarterback, depending on if he's on the road or if he's at home. But Amin Ra against. Top 16 defenses. That was nine games, 16.7, four points, 18.1 against bad teams. So, you know, hardly any difference. And then on the home, or on the road or at home, it's less than a point difference between those two things. So that those, it's great to see where, I mean, both, C.D. and Tyreek, we've already sung their praises. But they definitely beat the crap out of bad teams, where Amun Ra was just steady. Just steady and not.

Not the steady that we had two years ago where it was, it's good. It was steady great. Let me ask you this, though, because he finished at three. He's increased every year. He's 24 years old. He's about to get paid. He's about to get paid. He's on a consistent offense that you understand, right? But I don't feel like if I asked, I mean, you didn't bring his name up when I brought up the top four wide receivers off the board. And to me, what sticks out with Alman Ra is like, Okay, this was a 10 touchdown year. He had six the year before. He had five the year before that on similar reception totals. Yeah. Are you waiting for that shoe to drop next year? Yeah. This is around his peak. I mean, not that he can't do 10 again. He probably will before the end of his career. But if you're like, who can go out there and get you 15 touchdowns, that's got to be someone with a different archetype. That's a Jefferson. That's a.

A CD could do it. Chase. Yeah, exactly. The play style and the, you know, the slot machine style. It's like Keenan Allen. You don't expect Keenan Allen to go out there and get 15 touchdowns in a season. And, you know, I'm going to probably pencil them in. We're going to. be statting guys for the UFC for the UDK we're going to be I got I got some work for the UFC and I'm guessing I'll have Amin Ra right around like seven and a half eight touchdowns that's my expectation going into a season a first round wide receiver yeah for sure yeah I would imagine so Puka Nakua comes in at four yes Puka Nakua comes in at four now he played the whole season and he started

Real hot, real fast. So his fantasy stats end up at four, but his consistency was nine. First half 11, second half 13. He's a rookie. He did literally more than anybody could expect of a rookie wide receiver ever. 105 receptions, 1486 yards, six touchdowns, right? Finishes at four with six touchdowns. 24% great, 53% good, 24% bust. So 24% bust is four bust games on the season. It is worth noting that two of those bust games were the Matthew Stafford list games, the game that he got hurt in in the next week when he didn't play. So he would have been the consistency score of fifth without those games. Obviously, you still had to make your decision to play, so we have them in here. That's why he's consistency ranked nine. I don't think I'm going to be the person.

this off season and, you know, it's January, so we'll see. But I don't think I'm going to be the person just saying like, I think I'm going to be the Puka person. Oh, good. I don't think I'm going to be the Cup person. I don't think there's going to be a lot of Cup people. I think there will. Really? I mean, Cooper Cup had a 2021 season that left, you know, there's tattoos out there. Forever ago. I don't know. I mean, I just see the narratives will get spun up if there's enough of an ADP gap to say you should just be taking this all pro that's being drafted two rounds behind Puka. But I am a believer that the Puka takeover will be solidified next year. I'm right there with you. And I don't think there's been a bigger Cooper Cup person than like this last season. You know, I'll take the L on it. But I was taking Cooper Cup like crazy. Anytime he was anywhere, he would slip in.

in the first round down to the fourth, the fifth, six. I'd be taking them sometimes at the two. I believed in Matthew Stafford supporting an amazing fantasy-wide receiver. And unfortunately, the injuries came for Cooper Cup. But then also, unfortunately, for Cup, Puka took over. And as a true Cooper Cup believer, this is Puka's team going forward. I mean, I don't have any doubt of that. That is how I feel. And maybe Cooper Cup. You know, puts up a Thielen-esque touchdown total. Yeah. You know, when Jefferson was starting to take over, I just think Puga was so impressive. Most receptions by a rookie ever, most receiving yards, most first downs. That's a great comp, Andy. The Thielen situation. The Jefferson feeling. That's exactly what this is. Productive. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. But I just think it's time. You know, 22 years old. The maturity showed as a rookie.

Solidified offense. Yards per route run, which is a, like it's a pretty strong statistic in terms of success and future success. Rookie wide receivers who have surpassed the two and a half yards per route run since 2014. Odo Beckham, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Pooka Nakua, and Jamar Chase. I mean, that is, it's, and then seeing the draft capital for each player is. extremely funny because it's like a j brown is the one who got disrespected until puka fell into the fifth round yeah it's it's crazy i mean but what tier does he belong in does he are you looking at puka in the future are you looking at a j brown with a new offensive coordinator and how do you make a decision between those guys like dynasty or just even just redraft i mean next year right now if you had to if you not knowing anything that we don't know from now amen ra puka and a j brown

Put them in the order that you will draft them. Oh, my goodness. Like, do you feel more, I mean, it's probably still Puka at the back of the list of those three for me. The thing about Puka. But that's, I mean, that's, that's on top of the head. That's hard. You get more explosive plays from Puka. Yeah. Deep. Yeah, what, AJ Brown. Oh, I mean, I meant relative to Ammon Raw. Oh, yeah, sure, sure. But that, that's going to be a, um, A very interesting, I mean, from nowhere, undrafted. Yeah. So, wild. And how much puka talk will there be in relation to this large group of wide receivers coming out in the rookie class? And expectations for, oh, oh, you can get. You can get this? You can't. But you can. No, there will. The articles. The next puka. We'll probably have one. I mean.

There will be. Because we got to find him. Yeah, find the next Bucca. I mean, that is, that's wild. All right, quick break back with some more names. Well, from the youngest to the oldest in this list, Mike Evans, Mike Evans at five. The wide receiver, 30 off the board for fantasy players. Consistency rank of seven, first half, 13, second half, eight. He went, uh, ho-hum, 79 for 1255. And 13. He was awesome. It was Andy's my guy this year. And where you drafted him in the seventh round is the wide receiver 30. You made the playoffs. He stole. You know, and you got to your championship game with Mike Evans. He was fantastic. And this was the, you know, we had talked about it early in the off season or late in the off season last year. And now early in this off season about how.

the kind of similar to the Seahawks who had D.K. Metcalfe, who was just great, but everyone was worried about the quarterback situation. And then he was awesome first year with Gino. That's what happened with Mike Evans. Now, we don't know going forward where he's going to play and who his quarterback is going to be because right now both Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield are not under contract. 29% great, 59% good, 24% bust. Simple question for you. Does Mike Evans get drafted inside? the top 15 receivers next year. Because I don't think he would. I don't think so. I would say no. You know, he went at wide receiver 30. Obviously, he proved all of the haters wrong. But with the age mixed with not knowing this contract situation. Maybe. I mean, if it's a re-roll. If it's a re-roll, maybe he gets inside the top 15. Yeah. He's the fifth 30-year-old ride receiver, 30 plus to finish in the top five since 2008.

And I'm going to tell you who the other four are for the fun of it. But Devante Adams in 2022, Antonio Brown in 2018, Jordy Nelson in 2016 and Brandon Marshall. So very good players. It was just a really special year for Baker and Evans in that combo. Man, all right. You're going to be surprised at this one because he's finished between wide receiver 18 and 22, four straight years. And he had a year that finished at. wide receiver six somehow the hope of Terry McLaren managers everywhere. DJ Moore. DJ Moore did it, number six. Yeah, week five helped. Honestly, week, week five was two games. DJ Moore's fantasy finish only will serve to confuse people more next year because it was 13th in consistency, but 19th in each half tons of, you know, 24% bus games, 41% good games.

24% great. Like you said that, or was it, week five when he went? Yeah, week five. So just to illustrate this, our metric for whether a wide receiver had a great game. You know, you're wondering, like, what's a good game? A good game is over 20 points. And he had, he had two of those in week five. Right. So, yeah, I mean, that's, that's conflating this. That's why the first half. wider receiver 19, the second half wide receiver 19 when it comes to the consistency metric and the truth score. It was better with Justin Fields, though. I will say that. He had some of his down games without him. DJ Moore will be, he'll be tough to talk me into next year because I think the likelihood, I mean, I don't know if you guys are agreeing with me, but I think I think it's going to be Caleb Williams. Okay. And I think they'll add another wide receiver for sure. And I don't know if it'll be.

what is it, pick eight or nine that they have and they've got to roam, Rome, Adunzei. If you add a stud wide receiver and a new quarterback, we might just want to remember this season for DJ Amora and maybe not lean on him. It's inconsistent, but this is, we'll see where he gets drafted, but a wide receiver taken in the fifth who gave you those types of spike weeks throughout the season. I mean, this is why you assemble a whole team. Everything's not on DJ Moore. DJ Moore will go higher than Mike Evans. Yes. Yeah, that's probably accurate. But you. But yes, it'll be interesting to see. He's a, I think he's still a solid piece of the puzzle of crafting an entire fantasy football roster. But with Caleb Williams, if that's what happens, then that will be really, really difficult.

I will downgrade. I know that you can't not. I know that Justin Fields has not been a prolific great world class passer. You know, his, his value comes from his legs. But I will still downgrade DJ Moore should they draft Caleb Williams or any quarterback in replacement. Because you just don't, you just don't believe in like rookie quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud. C.J. Stroud is the outlier. He's the in liar. There's there's two of them. There's two quarterbacks. Are you going to bring up Herbert? Herbert? Yeah, of course. How did you know the name? How did you know who I was going to talk about with all the hundreds of rookie quarterbacks I could have gone with? I will say this. You're right. He's still an outlier, technically. But that's, I like tight windows here when we analyze the quarterback position. The NFL has changed tremendously. You know, the way that rookie quarterbacks are being trusted.

to become prolific passers to be allowed to do that stuff. That was just not a permissible opportunity for them other than the last five, six years. Did someone tell Carolina they were allowed to do it? Look, they might not be good. I'm not saying they're all good. That's Jason's point. Yeah, but if you, here's my point. You have to be scared. If you believe in a rookie pastor, I'm not, I don't know if you believe in Caleb's. We'll talk about that a lot over the next six months. If you believe in a rookie pastor, it is possible for them to come out and dominate.

Possible. Now, for Chicago, impossible, because they never had anybody throw over for over like 4,000 yards ever, right? I think they have no 4,000 yard passers, ever. In fact, there's something wild like that. I'm almost positive. Yeah, I mean, even just looking at the last five years and only first round draft picks, you know, Kyler didn't do anything for wide receivers his rookie year, Daniel Jones, Tua, Herbert did, Joe Burrow, I don't remember. Joe Burroughs for his season. I mean, he wasn't great. Trevor Lauren, Zach Wilson, Traylands. Like, even just in the short window, it's a bad hit rate to bet on a rookie quarterback. Yeah, but what about the good ones though, right? The good quarterbacks did produce. Well, I mean, there just weren't that many good ones. Just, is Caleb Williams good? That is what I'm asking. That's my point. No, I need you to tell me. Is Trevor Lawrence good? No.

But my point is like Kyler, Trevor Lawrence, Baker. You're telling me, Kyler didn't do anything as a rookie? As far as supporting a wide receiver. The context is not whether they were good. Did Kyler have Hopkins as a rookie? No. I'll look that. I don't think so. His first season? Do we? Because if he did, then he has supported him. I don't think so. Okay. Yeah. You know, we'll just have to stack up the strouds and the Herberts until we can get you on board. Okay. Number seven, AJ Brown, and we're going to. We're going to talk about him and Devante Smith together. Kyler did not have Hopkins as a brook. That was his sophomore year? Yes. So who do you even have? I'm on it. Larry? You probably had Larry. Yeah, Larry would have been there. All right. 7 and 20, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith. Very simple question here. Are they both, were they both disappointing? AJ Brown was the wide receiver of five off the board, finished at seven.

Devante Smith was the wide receiver 14 off the board, finished at 20. They both finished well below their finish in consistency. So Smith was 12th, oh, I'm sorry. So he was, he actually finished above his fantasy finish. 12th in consistency for Devonte Smith finished at 20. AJ Brown was 10th in consistency. I would say, like, I think Smith was more disappointing of the two of them when everything is factored in. AJ Brown is truly mysterious of, finishing the year with the numbers he had 106, almost 1,500 yards and seven touchdowns. But over the first half of the season in our metric, he was consistency rank number four. And that plummeted to 40. So, Jay, you're telling me Stefan Diggs fell more than that. Just you wait, brother. That's a good tease. That's exciting. That's a gap. But that's the, what? What happened? That's the what?

It's hard to even formulated. What happened to the Philadelphia Eagles? Was Jalen Hertz? That hurt did defenses figure something out against A.J. Brown. Was A.J. Brown banged up. Was he? Look, football happened to the Eagles this year. That's exactly what happened to them. Yeah, but you don't. Everybody always thinks the same thing will always happen forever. And it did for the first 10 games. But that's what I mean. Up until the by week, up until the by week, A.J. Brown was an incredible pick. Didn't he set the record for consecutive 130-yard games or something? Yeah, yeah, 120. It must have been 125 yards. He did it in six games in a row. He was a monster. His pace before the by week, his pace before the by week was 1900 yards and 11 touchdowns. His pace after the by week was 958 yards, a thousand fewer yards on a season. They were both exactly 50% good games.

They were both exactly 19% great games. And then the bust was the difference. You know, A.J. Brown, 19%. Devante Smith, 31%. So I wouldn't really go as far as to say disappointment for A.J. Brown. But when you're the consistency level of 40 in the second half, you didn't win the championship with A.J. Brown. Well, A.J. Brown is disappointing on the level of you go into week 10, they're by week. And you. feel locked in with what you have with AJ Brown because he did it for essentially nine straight weeks and you're not making appropriate moves for your fantasy football team because for him to disappear at what point in this run are you like oh well maybe something's wrong here with AJ Brown weak never yeah no because by the time you start thinking that he finishes 14th against San Francisco and 22nd against Dallas and everything's okay we're back and then he just just crashes and burns

So that is as great as it was, that's a devastating finish. I do have a really interesting stat for you guys. Over the last two years, when Brown and Smith played together. Okay. 24% of the time, both of them hit 13 plus fantasy points. 45% of the time both hit 10 plus, 48% of the time, one scored less than seven. So you have like 50% chance that they both end up pretty good? like fine 10 plus or a 50% chance that one of them ends up below seven fantasy points but also so was it 24% you said 24% of the time they're both games one and four you'll get both of them to hit yeah I don't like those odds but we do have a new offensive coordinator coming in next year fair you've been vigorously jotting numbers down was this quarterback related it was it was you circling back