The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy WRs + Big Love - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/1

On today's episode, we break down the truth of the top 10 finishing wide receivers. Was it an outlier? Did they beat up on bad defenses? And a startling, startling Stefan Diggs fall in the second half. See where he ranked. Make sure you subscribe to this channel right now so you don't miss a show and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. You didn't like it. It caught me off guard. What caught me off guard is that you've migrated from your Minnesota gear. You're wearing another baseball. What is this sweatshirt? Baseball stop. It's the hometown team. It's my diamondbacks, Jay. That's his diamondbacks. Baseball. Sports. See, the difference between you and I, Jason, and some others.

is that I got room to love a lot of things and you don't have as much room. My love is too big and too strong to be spread out and weakened and deluded across all these sports. You don't have enough love. We both have the same amount of love. I just pour mine into something and you're like, you get little love and you get little love. Little love. Okay. That's what I'm going to start calling you. Little love. I don't love football. I'm big love. Huh. Wasn't that an HBO show? Yeah, I was. with the polygamy yeah with the uh paxton yeah shoot big love that's that's well that's who you are now jay all right yeah i mean but but the irony of that is that i'm the polygamous in this situation because i like all sports like they're all i'm married to all of them and you just have one you're monogamous with big love with football with football uh yeah well thanks for listening goodbye no uh welcome in one and all judge giamati in the house how you doing

Excellent. Thanks for asking. That's good. We got Papa Josh. Hello. Still not the League of Record champion. And then Al Borland hiding over there in the corner. That's me. We've got a truth episode for you today. At least I think we do, right? We do. We do. And there's a quarter wide receivers. Wide receivers. This is part one of the wide receivers from the 2023 season. And there are some real fascinating things. I feel like going through the data, I learned quite a. quite a bunch so i hope uh you do as well jason does put together the uh some of the numbers back behind these episodes and he does this next to me in our office and you know it's going to be a good show when you hear him just out of nowhere like he's plugged in like he's got earpods in and stuff and he's working but then you hear him just go oh or or he'll just be like what so i mean i i'll tease here stephan diggs stephan digs has uh

You reacted. The largest gap between first half and second half of all time in our data. Even more than that one Adam Thielen here, you remember that feeling? What? Me? Yeah, so we'll get into it. Truth of the wide receiver position today, 10 days away from the big game, as they call it. The big game preparation, I think is what you mean. Which the UDK will be available in 10 days for pre-sale. which means immediate access to the Dynasty Pass, where our team is hard at work preparing the rookie class overviews and our rookie rankings, and there's a lot to go over. Yeah, absolutely. They are crushing. We are starting our journey as well with these prospects. So if you play Dynasty, or even if you don't play Dynasty, this is still really good information to get ahead of the crowd in. But, I mean, if you love Dynasty,

The UDK Plus gives you that. The Dynasty Pass has three versions, so to speak, one that comes out immediately. And then there's another update after the Combine and then a final update after the NFL draft because so many things changed throughout then. But it is jam-packed full of content. If you're looking for some fun football research stuff, it's going to be available very soon. And we do have a, speaking of the rookie class, there was an overview episode of the Dynasty podcast that Mike and Kyle and Betts were on this week. So you can check that out. The Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty podcast is a separate podcast, runs all year long and focuses on Dynasty, the rookie class, dynasty startups, all of that. Good stuff. I'm sure they're going to tell me I have a perfect team with Rahim Moster and Mike Evans and Keenan Allen. Yeah. Just.

It's on its way up. Yeah. I mean, think of the discounts that your team will be getting with their ARP cards. Is there, are there any jobs out there where, like, your peak performance is right before you retire? Like, if you just think of any job out there in the world. That's an interesting. Like, you're the best of the best of the best at the very, very, very end. Hmm. Very, very, very. And then you say goodbye. Is there any jobs where you get better progressively every year? Man, I feel like it's got to be. It would still be in the sports realm. Like there are some fighters who, you know, they get better and better and better and then it's over. Really? They just ends. Yeah, I mean, then they just get knocked out. Is that like a teacher? Like a teacher. Does a teacher get progressively better at teaching because they pile up the years? Until they get grouchy? Until, yeah. Yeah. You say you can go too far as a teacher. Yeah, you get old person grouchy, which it happens to.

The best. Yeah, even the best teachers will one day just hate kids. Do you think the producers? Hate children. These children. The deucers? You think they'll get better and better and better until we fire them? I'm waiting for the first better. Just one step. Take one step forward, guys. If we fire them when we think they've reached their peak, we could kind of fulfill this prophecy. I'll make a note. Well, you're not going to have to because they will refuse to step forward and progress. Right guys? Well, Al Borland says bad news. I'm at my peak right now. Oh, yeah, that is bad news. Okay, well. Bad news for you. We'll talk to you later. You can find the show on X at the FF Ballers. Follow me at Andy Holloway at Jason FFL. You can find Jason there. And Mike is at FF Hitman. You'll watch the show on YouTube, YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Subscribe, click the bell over there.

and subscribe wherever you're listening to podcasts or click that follow button they want it to be follow now really it's it's follow on spotify and it's follow on apple you subscribing that is old yeah that is follow it's old magazine stuff this is right unless you're on youtube so it's totally yeah you're right you're right uncle cracker is stoked This is where we're supposed to know the reference. It's fine. That joke's not for you. That joke's for somebody else. You're going to get like 10 YouTube comments. I hate it when you do this. All right, quick question of the day before we turn the page into some NFL news and then the top 10 wide receivers, the truth of that position, there was a player we kind of didn't discuss at running back because he didn't show up in the first two episodes of the truth. It was a...

Not the year that he had in 2022, but I want to bring it up here as our quick question of the day. Nor the year he had before that or before that. It's Josh Jacobs. What is the truth about Josh Jacobs, his 2023 season, he basically produced half the fantasy football point output that he did in his record-breaking 2022 year. He did miss time. Right? He missed the final four weeks. Correct. I think during that absence, because every week it was like, Josh Jacobs might play this week. But it started to feel- Yeah, he was like day-to-day for a month. It started to feel more like Josh Jacobs might want to go into the off-season where he's a free agent healthy. Yes. But this was a player that held out, eventually got into camp. What's your thoughts on the season for Fat Thor?

So the season was brutal. I think that the truth is that he is more of the player of those, like his first three years, and that 2022 was just magic, where it happens. Sometimes a player hits a true heater and everything meshes, whatever the play calling was, the offensive line. Everything was just, the mojo was at maximum. So I don't think he, I don't think it's done for Josh Jacobs, but 0.57 fantasy points per opportunity. That's the lowest of his career. And for last year, that's 47th of 50 qualifying running backs, also known as just slightly better than Giovante, Madison, and A.J. Dylan. I mean, like when you throw those names out talking about last year, people want to vomit. And that's kind of what we felt from Josh Jacobs here. So I think he still has some left in the tank, but.

When 2022 happened and you were like, this is it. Josh Jacobs has ascended and become this running back. I think the truth is just he's a very good running back, but maybe that elite season was that was the top. I take a more positive view on Josh Jacobs. From last year? From this past year. Here's my encouraging case for Josh Jacobs. You went through a year where you were late to camp. Your head coach got fired. You had a different quarterback. You had a different commitment to the run. You had a different production on the offensive line. Obviously, the efficiency numbers standalone are terrible. However, when you got a new head coach who they now hired, Antonio Pierce is their full-time head coach. Correct. Loves Josh Jacobs. The team loves him. Jacobs wants to be back for this coach. His opportunity pays over the final five full games where he was healthy.

was almost 400 opportunities in 350 carries. But how was he doing in those? He finished his RB 10, 2, 20, 35, and 7. Okay. So his output... What were in those? So those are the Pierce games? Those were the Pierce games from... Well, that was week 8 through 12. I don't remember the week he took over. Okay. But this was when they showed a renewed commitment to the run. And, you know, the reception totals weren't where they were last year. That helped them a lot. I just... I do wonder if he goes back... I'd be very worried about him departing. But if he went back to Las Vegas with Antonio Pierce, I think he would be somebody I'd be looking to add as a value running back. Do you not have concerns for the breakout of Zemir White over the final month? Not really because the money that they'd have to pay him to bring him back would be a commitment. But a commitment to him but still would be.

I mean, I don't know how you put the genie back after Zamir White comes in those last four games and is, I mean, like, he was tremendous for them. It feels like if they believe what you're saying, like if in the locker room, the Zemir White production translated the way it is to you, then they won't bring Jacobs back. Right? Why would you do that? You're not going to pay a bunch of money. If you believe in Zemir White, just use them as you're running back. Jacobs may not. He may not find a very. open and welcome market for him. So he could go back to the Raiders just at discount. Oh, yeah. He's taking money. He's going to take the money. And I'm guessing it will be with the Raiders. The way that Antonio Pierce has discussed these two. And this is after Zamir White's good performances. He was asked about, he was flat out asked the question of like, does Zemir's

incredible production while Josh Jacobs has been out turned this into more of a committee. And he basically said, we're so thankful for what he's done. But like Josh Jacobs is our dude. So if that's the way it was in the locker room then amidst that happening, if they sign and bring back Josh Jacobs, I do think he's going to be a value. I think there's going to be a lot of people scared, a lot of people that don't want them because of the efficiency numbers. But at the same time, when he went down to injury, he was actually the running back 11 on the season to that point.

He only had six touchdowns on the season. The, you know, the previous couple years was 12, 9. So I think he'll be a value next year. I think. And I can even go higher. I can go higher. I think he'll be a super value. He was, you know, enjoying that. He could be. But it would be a matter of, he would have to get that volume. I feel like, yeah, he would. But that's been kind of. You'd love to see the targets go back up. I mean, the previous two years, 64 targets, 53 receptions, obviously missed a little bit of time. Maybe they would have been pretty close. But does Brooks believe in him? That's what matters for next year. Because Brooks called the 2022 breakout, which the reason that was such a valuable pick is because people doubted him. Like going into 2022, it was like, you know, Josh Jacobs, ho-hum, never over 200 fantasy points. So Brooks, Jacobs re-signs with the Raiders. Is he good?

Oh, he's good. All right. All right. Science. Do you guys remember week two? Because I did not remember this that. Yeah. He finished the game. 73% of the snap. So he played. He finished the game with nine carries for negative two yards. Oh, yeah. On the ground. Maybe he had 50 receiving yards. So it was, it was not a collapse for fantasy. That's funny. That game by itself accounted for 0.2 of his yards per carry on the year. that it dropped it. But he's so young. He's still young. Sure. And versatile. So we'll see. Some NFL news. I'm going to just breeze through this real quick. No need for the drop. We'll just jump in. But head coaches, we've got new ones. And we have this is a Mike McDonald thing. Mike McDonald? I don't know. He's the Ravens, D.C., right? He was. He was.

Was. And now the six-year deal with Seattle to become their new head coach. And I can't hear the name Michael McDonald without thinking of the singer. And that will just be, it'll be an enjoyable thing for you. That happens inside my brain every time. So a new head coach for Seattle? Because. Because Ben Johnson was not going to be their head coach, nor was he going to be the head coach of the Washington commanders. He goes back to Detroit, as does Bobby Slowick, the offensive coordinator for the Texans. This is. Such good news for fantasy football. It's so helpful for us. Yes. We will be smarter because we will know what to expect for these two teams. And Ben Johnson, look, I have thought a lot about this. I think he made the right call on many levels. On one level, I just respect anybody that is, you know, there's obviously the underpinnings of the NFL coaching world is a progression. Like you just want to progress, progress, progress, progress, progress.

and then get your opportunity to be a head coach. And he may not get that opportunity by passing year. Obviously, if they struggled next year, the window could close for him. However, the jobs this year, I think they're better next year. I don't think that going, I know Washington is high draft capital. But if you take that one nuance piece out of the equation, like, that's a tough franchise to win with, okay? They've gone through a lot of coaches. I know they have a new ownership, whatever. Next year could be. You know, we're always going to be looking at Kansas City and whether Andy Reid leaves. Dallas is going to be always a one season away from firing their head coach. Dallas could be a landing spot for next year. There's talk in Philadelphia. You know, if they struggle again, they've already fired and hired all the other coaches except for the head coach. Philadelphia could be on the board next year. Like there are opportunities that to me seem like, you know what, Ben Johnson, two solid years with the Lions.

If he wants to go get that job. But this is great for golf. This is great for Alman Ra, Sam Leporta for sophomore slump. I don't think so. It's so fantastic for fantasy football. And I'm for it. Like the leak that came out, whatever, it was a month or so, a month or two ago, you know, there was Ben, we're hearing Ben Johnson wants. I think it was like $15 million a year. $150 million. It was an amount of money that is like, no one's going to pay that. And maybe teams around the league said, we're not going to pay that. But that's, I mean, that's beautiful for Ben Johnson. It's like, okay, either you give me generational wealth and I come and try and be a head coach, or I go back to this team.

that was one half away from the Super Bowl. That's a good life. And then I'll do it next year. Yeah. And he more than likely will still be a hot candidate next year. Maybe Jared Goff and company, they fall on their faces next year, but that seems unlikely. Yeah. And Bobby Sloat going back to the Texans is great too. Oh, that one makes me. Continuity for a young quarterback in that offense? That one makes me even happier because. When you only, like I believe in Stroud, I think that he would have been good with or without Slowick, but the Detroit Lions offense is, you know, it's already established. There's enough veterans there with Montgomery and golf. And I think if they lost Johnson, they would have been okay. They would have been fine. But I would have been more fearful for the Texans offense with all the youth there.

when you have a change at coordinator. So that one makes me thrilled. Yeah, and he'll have opportunities if he succeeds again next year as well in the spoiler alert. He's going to. C.J. Strauss is awesome. Yeah. So, and then let's not bury the reaction everybody really wants. I think 18 minutes, 40 seconds into the show. I think most people have waited for right here, right now. We've got a new offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and his name is Arthur Smith. What? What? The people are happy? That's crazy. I'm happy. I'm with the people. The reactions on Twitter are, they've been electric because it is so polarizing and not just everyone dunking on Arthur Smith. I've seen everything from the Steelers will be like, I will be a full fate of every Steelers player. This is going to be a disaster to people who are like,

Najee Harris is back, baby. He's going to get fed the ball. And so it's funny to see one person here, but the opinions can be so split on them. But it's, whatever, it's great for the show. I'm a little surprised Pittsburgh went this direction, but Arthur Smith did have success in Tennessee as the OC. Arthur Smith had success in Atlanta. What Arthur Smith did not have. was the support of fantasy managers because they drafted Bijan and did not turn him into a workhorse. That's why we hated him. Well, he didn't have the support of the ownership of the team because he drafted Bijan and then didn't use him properly. Sure. No, I get that. But my point is they ran the ball well as a team. So well with players that didn't make sense. Who was the Caleb?

Caleb Huntley? Mm-hmm. Caleb Huntley showed great. I mean, you had Tyler Alger. The system is perfect for Pittsburgh. The Atlanta rookie record the year prior. So, you know, it was super frustrating. And maybe you're going to see some of that. Thankfully, people aren't madly in love with Najee the way they are with Bijan. So we're going to already forgive a committee here. But I do think he's going to be very good for their running game. And obviously, he had Derek Henry before and he had Bijon. But he's he's a. I think he's not the worst offensive mind. He's really not. He's just frustrating from a personnel standpoint. But I think in Pittsburgh, that's going to be just fine. I agree. And I think I've already seen the free Jalen Warren tweets. And, you know, I think that'll be the popular candidate next year. But I'm going to, I'm just going to say it. Oh. I think for the first time of my life, you may. Oh, you might find me on the other side of the Naji argument based on draft position next year, which.

Look, you guys may think I'm just a hater, but I only hate him as a player and a person. Oh, okay, okay. You can't, what? How dare you? No, I'm just kidding. Nodji's a great person. Yeah. And a good player in the right system and situation. The truth is, is I have not liked where people drafted him nor what they think his ceiling can be. But when you were put into a system like this, the production he had at the end of the year, yeah, I mean, his ADP last year was the RB9. I'm not signing up for that. That's a cancel the subscription situation for me. But, all right, we'll take a quick break and we'll come back with some truth. All right, well, we are done talking about head coaching changes, although we will have a coaching changes episode breaking all the implications down well beyond Arthur Smith later on this off season. Right now it's time for the truth of the wide receiver position. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You.

can't handle the truth well can we handle the truth of some of these whiteouts and what in the world is going to happen with them in the 2024 redraft season um let's talk about some trends we've been doing this at every position looking at trends of the wide receivers since you know back in 2018 the value of the wide receiver target has actually gone down over the last few years The zone defenses you're seeing out there are forcing a bunch of banish them. You know, pull a baseball. Oh, yeah, no more, no more. Your defense is working too well. No more defensive shift. We need to change the rules. I am still waiting for them to just pull a tin on defense is all that's allowed.

Yeah, maybe. But look, this has resulted in more short area targets for the wide receiver position. 11% of the targets were behind the line of scrimmage. It's the highest since 2018. You'd think that Cliff Kingsbury was in charge of doing that. Maybe that's why he's getting a lot of interviews lately is because... It's so hot right now. They're just like, man, why throw it forward when you can throw it backwards? Short of the sticks? How about short of the line of scrimmage? Yeah, I mean, this is true, but it's part of the... You know, anything behind the line of scrimmage is technically a run for the wide receiver position. And you're seeing more wide receivers used in the run. Not if it's a forward pass. Yeah, you can still have a forward pass. Correct. I'm sorry. I meant behind, yes, I mean lateral. Anything that's backwards, backwards pass. Sorry. Not the line of scrimmage, but backwards in direction. But there's the more wide receiver rushing attempts than we've seen in a really long time.

More end rounds. Teams are putting more wide receivers in motion. You're seeing more innovative stuff with, I mean, every time you watch Tyree Kill in the Miami offense. Well, it's the defenses are now more than ever scheming to stop the big play. Like that seems to be at the top of the defensive assignment has stopped the huge plays, which I mean, it's smart, obviously. We saw the scoring and things going down. If you stopped the big plays, you're more likely to have an accident and have to punt. And, yeah, Kyle put together a list of the top six teams of percentage of motion at the snap. Miami is ridiculous. 68% of plays. Is that right? But it's, you know, very funny of. So number one, Miami. Let's see. Great offense. The Rams. That's a great office. 49ers. Oh.

That's a great offense. The Green Bay Packers. Well, that's a great offense. And the Detroit Lions. Well, Baltimore Ravens. Hey, weird. Weird. Well, and look at who's dead last in the entire league and who just got fired. Yeah, the Philadelphia Eagles. 10.9% of plays. And they just brought in a new offensive coordinator. Followed by the Browns, Cardinals, and commanders. So let's get some motion going on in there. We did have some very high-end fantasy seasons at the tippy top of the position, though. Kyle took a look at every top 12 wide receiver over the last five years. So that's 60 different wide receivers, and you had four this season that would finish in the top 12 of that group. So you had just some massive performances. Points per game. That's right. I mean, you had elite seasons from C.D. Lamb, Tyree Kill, Aman Ra, Keenan Allen. In terms of points per game, obviously, Alan missed time.

later in the season, but you had some wide receivers that were going off and leading to championship game appearances in championships. Man, halfway through the season, could you imagine that Terry Kill, even missing a game doesn't finish as the number one? Yeah. C.D. was so good. Yeah, and I really love him. Big love. All right. Let's dig in because we're going to start with C.D. Lamb. Great games of the wide receiver position were categorizing 20 plus points. Good games, 12.5 points. Bust games fewer than 7.5. CD Lamb came in at number one. He was number two in consistency. First half was number six in consistency. Second half was number one overall. He only busted in 6% of games. He was good in 82%. So again.

82% of the time, 12.5 or more fantasy points. And 41% of the time, it was great. That number's insane. I mean, pretty much from the by week, they came out of the by week, and they were like, we're going to just throw you the ball. The offense changed. More than everybody in football, because he ended up with 135 receptions. And we'll just let the chips fall with C.D. Lamb as the centerpiece. Yeah, the offensive scheme of the Cowboys. 100% changed after the by week. And they went with a CD-LAM is the focal point of this. There is the narrative. I don't know if we have ever confirmed it, but the talk of C.D. Lamb over the bi-week, having a meeting with Coach McCarthy and kind of saying, like, get me the ball. Because while he was still pretty consistent fantasy-wise,