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Main show · September 2, 2020

Top 10 Fantasy Football MVPs for 2020 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/2

RSSSep 2, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Top 10 Fantasy Football MVPs for 2020 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/2

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Inside the episode

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54:35 ↗

And to me, that is having a difference maker at a specific position that you acquire later in the draft. That has been the definition for fantasy football MVP for the past few years, specifically for this position. I'm not singing a new song here. It's Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray is my pick as the fantasy football MVP. When you look at Kyler Murray, I just listen to Daniel Jeremiah talk about Kyler Murray. Like I said, he's a popular breakout pick for a reason.

55:05 ↗

The passing ability of Kyla Murray is why he went number one overall. Daniel Jeremiah said if you took this draft class, last year's draft class, and the year before, and you put all those quarterbacks available into the pot, that includes Lamar Jackson. Daniel Jeremiah would take Kyla Murray, number one overall, overall Lamar Jackson, because of that passing upside. I think he has the best chance of being a weekly difference maker for your fantasy team relative to the draft value. He is entering, gentlemen, the Jordan year.

55:34 ↗

Oh. His year 23 season. When Patrick Mahomes... Is this a thing now? It's kind of a thing. When Patrick Mahomes entered, it was his year 23 season when he made the leap to league MVP, fantasy MVP. He was a 10th round selection that year. Lamar Jackson, year 22, going into that year 23 season, made the leap. League MVP, fantasy MVP, was an eighth round selection. And here's Kyler going from year 22 to year 23. He is a sixth round pick. Now you were starting to...

56:03 ↗

starting to catch on as to what can happen in fantasy football drafts. But if he's a sixth round draft pick, you already have a hit rate in those rounds that is difficult. You're not hitting every pick in that round. Yet the upside of hitting on Kyla Murray is so tremendous. He is the only other, Cam Newton's the only other rookie quarterback to hit that 3,500 passing.

56:26 ↗

500 rushing yard mark in the history of the NFL. And the real case about Kyla Murray that can be easily made statistically is the touchdown percentage. That positive regression. Last year, Kyla Murray had a 3.7% touchdown percentage. Last year, Lamar Jackson, in the miracle year, had a 9% touchdown. So you're saying. No, no, I'm not. But what if? But really.

56:52 ↗

You know, Patrick Mahomes in his super year, it was 8.6. Those are outliers on the other extreme from the 3.7. But let's say he gets to 5, 5.5%. A very reasonable, achievable, normalized number. Slightly above average. That's what that, you know, if you're 5, 5.5, you're above average, but not outlandish, not an outlier. You got it. You got it. Gardner last year, 4.5% in his rookie season. Kyler 3.7. He's going to throw the ball at least 550 times in 2019.

57:21 ↗

they've added DeAndre Hopkins to the offense. Let's see he doesn't make that outlier leap, six, seven, eight percent, but he gets to five and a half. Well, five and a half is 30 touchdowns, 30 to 31 touchdowns in this offense. You add DeAndre Hopkins to the equation. You got 500 yards rushing minimum on the ground over the course of the season. And the thing about Kyla Murray, when you look at what he did last year, he did not throw the ball deep a lot in that offense.

57:51 ↗

in quantity. But when he did throw it deep, he was very, very successful doing so. Seventh most yards on those throws. Do you think DeAndre Hopkins helps you with your average depth of target and your success? I would say so, yes. Do you think going into a second year of a burner like Andy Isabella, big playability, a healthy Christian Kirk, Dan Arnold, what he brought, two touchdowns over the last four weeks? We were going to have to fight if you didn't bring up the postman. The fifth name that you can bring up now is...

58:18 ↗

First ballot hall of famer Larry Fitzgerald, who's looked really good in camp. Yeah, and Murray's put on some weight. Here's what I'm saying. If you wait to the sixth round and you draft Kyler Murray, you have an outside shot at the number one overall fantasy quarterback for 2020. Adam, that chance with the predictability of breakouts at the quarterback position, it's worth that pick. And it's worth that pick over anybody else you can get in that sixth round.

58:44 ↗

You get the high weekly baseline number with the rushing totals. I think the NFL Jordan Year Leap is coming for Kyler. We also saw the year one to year two leap for Carson Went. So we've seen this now three times where that guy becomes a fantasy football MVP. Look, if the draft cost goes up to the third, fourth round, sorry, no, get out. But six-round value on Carla Merley, that's my fantasy MVP. Yeah, I like it. And sometimes I play a game where when you...

59:11 ↗

remind me that the Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins. I try not to smile. I saw you smirking. Is that all it was? It was just a warm, fuzzy feeling. Oh, that's so nice. You know who else brings me warm, fuzzy feelings? Who's that? My wide receiver won for my League of Record team. A.J. Brown. That's my fantasy MVP this year. And the reason why he's my fantasy MVP is because he's going to be a fantasy MVP. He's.

59:37 ↗

phenomenal. He's not good. He was otherworldly his rookie year. He had the ninth best rookie wide receiver season since the year 2000. He was dominant. And we left last season worried that he was going to be like this top six wide receiver pick in fantasy this year because of how dominant he was. How dominant was he? Well, once Ryan Tannenhill took over, he was the wide receiver three. But from...

60:03 ↗

Their buy week on, there was a major shift in the Titans' offense. Okay, before the buy week, A.J. Brown averaged 59% of snaps. After their buy week, he averaged 85% of the snaps. He went from being a wide receiver on the team to being, oh, this is a starting wide receiver on pretty much every passing down. He was the wide receiver one from that, not.

60:27 ↗

A wide receiver won. He was ahead of Michael Thomas during that stretch. Now, he had a ton of touchdowns. He had these big breakaway plays, things that are outlierish. But he finished his rookie season as the wide receiver 15. He's currently being drafted as the wide receiver 18. He's being drafted past what I believe is his floor. That was his rookie year when he wasn't playing all the snaps. He's coming into camp as the clear number one.

60:55 ↗

He has the potential, the body type, the ability to finish as a wide receiver top five this season, and you're getting him in the fourth round. Look at the names of people who have finished within a point per game of where he finished his rookie year. I'm going to read you these names. Tell me if they're good or bad. Not one by one, just as a whole.

61:18 ↗

O'Nell Beckham Jr., Ann Kwan Bolden, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Michael Clayton, Mike Williams, Calvin Benjamin, Keenan Allen, Marquis Colston, Eddie Royal, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones. Now, you got a couple names in there. There's a couple of those. Michael Clayton, is that, that's that movie you like, Brooks, right? Yeah, that's a good one. Yeah, exactly. Phenominal movies. Clooney. That's George Clooney.

61:47 ↗

I had no idea. The vast majority of those players are superstars, career-long superstars. And that's what A.J. Brown, I believe, is. I don't see any reason talent-wise. He, you know, he was drafted to be that. He went ahead of D.K. Metcalf, his own teammate from college in the NFL draft. So to me, I think he should be a top 10 wide receiver for fantasy. He's being drafted where so what if he doesn't break?

62:13 ↗

further out. But I think he will. He's my fantasy MVP for 2020. Well, I love it. And he's one of those players, too, that you root for to have all the opportunities you saw it last year because you know what he's capable of. You want those players to be, it's like the let-rest cook situation. You want to see A.J. Brown unleashed. And they might start doubling him. Oh.

62:37 ↗

Wait, no, they're going to need to stack the box. That's right. I forgot. There's Derek Henry behind there opening things up. So I love it. I watch some Derek Henry highlight this. Oh, what? Don't we close segments with the same drop we open them with? Yeah, always. Let's try that. Who's your fantasy MVP? Antonio Gibson. So David Blaine's okay? Is that what we?

63:08 ↗

We've established that? I guess okay is not the right description. I have something to tell you. I am David. Oh, no. It's been a wild ride. Hope you enjoyed the podcast, enjoyed the show. Make sure you grab the ultimate draft kit if you don't have it already. And listener league draft tonight. See you tomorrow. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on Jointhefoot.com.

63:39 ↗

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64:39 ↗

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