Fantasy Football - Too Hot to Handle! + Risk vs Reward - Podcast for 7/1

You know, maybe there's some formats. Two QB, okay. But if he's my, if I'm in a single quarterback league, Jared Goff's not consistent. Jared Goff, they've got such a good running game. You can have a dominant performance from the Lions where Jared Goff didn't throw a bunch of touchdown. I mean, let me, let me make it really simple. And I was trying to paint the other picture. But if you're going to lock a guy into your starting quarterback position the entire year, Jared Goff or Bo Knicks. Bo Knicks. Jared golf or Kyler, Kyler, Kyler. Jared Goff or Jordan Love to be locked in. Jordan Love. Jared Goff or Brock Purdy to be locked in. Brock Purdy. I mean, all those guys are going way behind him. Right. Yeah. Way behind him in the drive. And to be clear, I don't necessarily think those names you brought up should be locked in. No, but comparatively to Goff based on consistency. But like Dak Prescott. Yeah. Jack Prescott or Jared Goff, I think I'd rather have Dak Prescott. And he's so, so many rounds later.

Jared Goff is going to finish this season with a good season total. And we talk about this on the truth series. If you were with us in the off season, when we go through the truth of fantasy quarterbacks, sometimes you're Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers, every single year was a quarterback one. Yeah, keep you 10. Keep you 10. Yeah. And it's like, oh, that sounds so great. He's been a top 12 quarterback for six straight years. You don't like him. But then you play the season, the fantasy season. And if he's your quarterback every week, You're losing, he is not a difference maker. He's not consistent. He's not going to go out there in every week win you games. He's going to lose you as many as he wins. He's a C in our grade for consistency. So I don't know, man. I can't imagine that I want to spend an eighth round pick on Jared Goff. If someone else grabs Jared Goff ahead of you.

Is, are you going to be like, oh, you don't care. No, you're probably, it's the worst situation because what is a quarterback in the eighth round? Are you drafting in every week starter? You shouldn't be. I mean, you can't. I mean, you hope. And if you're not, are you drafting a second one? Are you really taking golf and pairing him with Caleb later or Herbert later? I mean, it just, it's an unnecessary selection, I think, in the eighth round. I'm with you. It's too hot to handle. It's no disrespect to the near MVP Jared Goff last year. You also have, obviously, Ben Johnson is gone, and their center, their awesome center is gone. Jared Goff has never been one that was great under pressure. So if that offensive line ends up leaky in the middle, that won't be great for golf. All right, this one might be more difficult, Jason. Too hot to handle. Amari and Hampton. This one will be more difficult. You are correct. The running back for the Chargers.

currently being drafted at 411 as the RB 18. This is the 22nd overall pick in the NFL draft. This is a player you and I adored on film. Love him. He's so good. It's great that Mike's absent for this discussion because you and I can just talk about the glowing reviews we have of Omari in Hampton. He was unbelievable. He is a perfect NFL running back. He is a three downback that will block better than anyone out there. He will pass catch. He will goal line short yardage. He will break long plays. He is a perfect running back prospect who was drafted in the first round to a team that wants to run the ball. He also should instantly look much better than nausea on film. It should be one of those things that's very quickly apparent on film.

But there are other elements in play. Naji's there, man. Naji is there. The team has spoken so highly of him. They pursued him. I don't know if they pursued him thinking they would take Hampton at 22 or not. And rookie running backs make a huge impact. But I don't know what to do with Hampton. But if you take him, he might not start for a while. He might not start and he might finish the entire year just being a time share. running back. And Najee is 12 spots or 12 running backs behind Hampton and drafts, which makes sense. But you talk about like Najee at 710 could start and could produce. Omar and Hampton, when you're like when you draft Ash and Genti, right, you are getting a three down back. He's going to be on the field for 60 plus percent of the snaps. He's going to have an incredible volume of work.

And Amarian Hampton was drafted to be that player for the Chargers. The question is win. And I don't know if it's even in 2025. If they want to win, it should be. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will be. Najee is not as good as Hampton, but Najee is not bad. Nagy is not a detriment to your team. Giving the ball to Najee is not going to hurt your offense so drastically. He's not bad enough to make it to where Harbaugh and Giro are going to have to make that decision and say, look, we've got to go more to Hampton. We have to go more to Hampton because our drives are being stopped by Najee. We're just got to make that transition. That's my fear is I think Najee is good enough where they will never this season. And that's actually my belief. I don't think Hampton this season becomes.

the bell cow so you don't think he will but there's still a chance he does oh for sure the problem one of the problems i have is this the juxtaposition with like quenchon judkins in cleveland who is drafted in the seventh round right now yeah because nobody wants to touch a cleveland brown player uh but judkins from week one should be the guy Yeah, I agree. It's not just him. I think... I missed something. And you know, my love for Caleb Johnson. Caleb Johnson is, again, in the seventh round. There's other rookie running backs that are... Did I fail to pluralize? No, no, no. I just, I think that, yeah, there are Cleveland Brown players you don't want to touch. So... So, yeah, I mean, where do you stand? If you're getting Hampton...

at the back of the fourth is the running back 18. There is no doubt that Hampton could destroy that ADP. Like he could finish the season as the running back six, seven, eight. He feels like it's one way or the other. There's no, this is not where Hampton ends up. But we love Hampton. You and I both look and say he is superior to Najee. He is awesome. Whenever you take in fantasy football a first round NFL drafted running back, it works. I will say he's not too hot to handle. I like Chuba right behind him a little bit more. I don't mind James Connor a little bit more behind him. But beyond that, this is as discounted as you, it's not like Hampton's going ahead of Mixing. He's not going ahead of Alvin Camara. So I think I'm okay. It's funny because I think I'm okay. My issue with where he's going is not the veterans. It's the other rookie running backs.

I just think there's such a value on the other rookie running backs. But it's Judkins. Like, I don't want Henderson. Are you that into Henderson? Above. So my rankings for the rookies. Henderson and Judkins are both seventh round picks. I've got Quinnshan Judkins and Caleb Johnson ahead of Amarion Hampton. Amarian Hampton's my third. But I've got him just ahead of RJ Harvey and Trayvion Henderson. within the rooks. So what's your final verdict? I do not think it's too hot to handle. I think it's right on the edge. And that's good enough for a rookie running back to make an impact. I, it's not too hot to handle. Okay. It's really not. He could, he could, he could be a steal as the running back art 18. And let's say, my belief is that Najee Harris will make this a time share for the entirety of the season. So now let's talk about Omarian Hampton.

in the timeshare. He's not going to. Omari and Hampton in a time share is not going to disappear. He's not going to be the running back 40 just because he's sharing time. He's going to be the more explosive player. We just went into this with Gus Edwards last year and J.K. Dobbins too. Yeah. We're the best player played. I look at where he's going and while that might not be the rookie running back I take, I'm fine with him going there. All right, we will take another break. We've got some more names to mention. Be back in a second. All right, too hot to handle. I have a pretty quick reaction to this name. Seventh round, ninth pick, RB29, DeAndre Swift, one of the biggest risers in basketball league since the NFL draft. And for me, not even remotely too hot to handle. I don't want to draft them, though. You don't.

I don't. I do want to draft him. I want to win dirty. Yeah, that's the way to win dirty. He's, I mean, he's not too hot to handle because he's the running back what? What's his average draft position? He's being drafted as Harvey 29. Yeah, I mean, that's stupid. He's finished currently in his career as the running back 18, 19, 22, 23, 19 has the best of his career, like, opportunity lined up for him. going into this year. Being drafted is running back 29 is, that's basically what his floor is. And I think that's probably below what his floor is, barring injury. So he's clearly not too hot to handle. I still don't want to draft him, man. I just, what is his upside? Like, I don't think, I don't think so. I think it is. I don't think he can be a top 10 running back. You just, I mean, we just talked about. He's not good enough. What they're, I mean, he doesn't stay healthy. He wasn't good enough in Philadelphia.

Exactly. But he was good enough for your fantasy team in Philadelphia. But he finishes the running back 23 and he played 16 games for Philly. He finishes the running back 23 with a better offensive line. You know, I don't think the expectation to start that year though was like I think this first three weeks he barely got any work. I think he took off or am I wrong? Let me look into that. In Philadelphia, I mean, he was Just the first week. Let me put it this way. He was the RB 19 last year with a crap offensive line and no offensive coordinator. Right. So I think he could finish as the running back. His very, his ceiling could be top 12. See, I think his ceiling is like. Or peering in the window at 13. Peering in the window at 13 at the other guys that have talent. Sure. Man, I feel like.

This is a player we know exactly who he is. He's frustrating. Yeah. He's frustrating enough for Detroit to ship him off. Yeah, he's not a bad player. He's not a great player. He is not a great running back. He has vision problems. He has health problems. So I don't know, man. This is a guy who, what, last year he was the running back 19. You brought that up. Another. consistency rating of a C. Okay, you want nausea on your team or Swift? You want Brian Robinson on your team or Swift? Brian Robinson. I would rather have Brian Robinson. There's one going behind him. Jalen Warren. Caleb Johnson, baby. Your voice deepened and it's scary. Um, ETN. Oh, shut up. That's what you can't do that. You can't bring his name up. All right. Too hot to handle Jackson, Smith, and Jigba going at 2.11.

Wide receiver 12. Man, Mike has me scared on this one. Mike has me really scared. You can make such a clear and easy argument for Jackson Smith and Jigba, who as a prospect, what do we think of him as a prospect coming out that year? Was he your number one prospect? He's a great player. He's a great player. He's a great wide receiver. Last year with DK Metcalfe with Tyler Lockhe. He finishes the wide receiver 10. Yep, being drafted at wide receiver 12. So now. Could make the argument. He's going into year three. He leveled up. He was incredible the second half of last year, too. It wasn't it. First half of last year, he was still figuring it out. It clicked. He was awesome at the end. He was like on pace for 1,700 yards. But Mike's data on the year two breakout and where their ADP. Mike's dad would like you to know. His research.

on the year that you break out and the following season, whether you meet or exceed ADP production. Basically, fantasy players after a breakout in year two, we overreact. We overreact. That's the dad. And the problem to me, that's what his dad told me. The problem to me is that that makes so much sense. Yes. It makes so much sense. Because it's the beginning of your career. you showed you flashed incredible potential everything i just said that's the number one type of player everybody wants everybody wants that he he broke out but he's not like being drafted as that top guy yet maybe he'll maybe he can be one that's that's what it is yep the year two player yep we all say he could be the new one he could be the new like overall yeah like he'll finish as the best he'll be a top yeah

And the data says that only eight of 19 of those guys meet the expectations in year three, which is a 42% shot. You don't want... Only two of the 19, though, were big hits. Right. And they crushed they were league winners, which is what you're hoping for. When you're drafting at the 211 as the wide receiver 12, that is... You don't win a championship if he doesn't make a step forward. Correct. And so basically your second pick of the draft, potentially. you might have 30 to 40% odds of that being worth it. That sounds too hot to handle. I don't want to always agree on all these players though. Have we totally agreed? Yeah, I believe so. Well, you know what? I'm going to change on DeAndre Swift. Too hot to handle. So that you can agree now. Yeah. Okay. Because I think it is, I think it is a little too hot to handle. You know, I look at whether it's.

You know, Jackson Smith and Jigba at that 2-11 as the wide receiver 12 or a round later. Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Mike Evans, a round later, around later. I mean, there's wide receivers that I like just as much as him. D.K. Metcalf is in the fifth round. Who has a better season this year? D.K. Metcalf for J.S.N. I hope it's J.S.N. I hope he takes that leap forward. But the cost. You know, he's going right next to Chase Brown. I mean, Harrison's a complete round later. I would much rather have, yeah, I would much rather have Chase Brown as my running back and then a round later take Marvin Harrison Jr. As opposed to sacrifice that. I mean, let me look who's, what running back is going next to the next running back. You're looking at like Kenneth, Kenneth Walker over where Marvin Harrison's going. Okay, so we agree. I mean, Tyree Kiel goes, I mean, Tyree Kiel, where did he go in your?

Because he's going behind JSN right now, but where did he move in your rankings after? Because to me, I feel like Tyree Kill is starting to slip into sneaky category for me. Tyree Kill was pretty much undraftable for me. You really spoke out against him. I was out. You just don't have wide receivers at that age bounce back after a bad season. And he played the whole season. I know he had the wrist issue. But my biggest issue was the Tua John Hussmith connection on those dink and dunks and that the valuable targets for Tyreek Hill weren't coming. With Johnny Smith not there, he is my wide receiver 14. He's at 10. And I'm a little bit afraid to say that, but he's at 10 right now. All right. Travis Hunter is in the seventh round. Wide receiver 35. Weird situation for Travis Hunter. I don't have.

strong convictions right now. I do. You do. Oh, yeah. Oh, well, let's see. This is in no way, shape, or form too hot to handle. Oh, so your convictions are towards Travis Hunter being a steal. Travis Hunter is the best wide receiver in this draft. The issue with Travis Hunter is a question of, does, is he a full-time wide receiver? He wants to be a cornerback. He wants to be a wide receiver. Is he going to be out there for 55, 55% of the snaps, and then also playing cornerback? Or is he going to be a full-time receiver and then also play cornerback? Doesn't the answer to that question make him? Oh, it's risky. It's absolutely risky, but it's not too hot to handle. In the seventh round is my wide receiver 35 being drafted. His potential as, you know, the best wide receiver in this draft class of rookie, rookie wide receivers, they win fantasy championships. If he comes out and is a full-time player.

We're going to disagree. Oh, fantastic. We're going to disagree finally, only because I think the ambiguity. There's a couple of things you have to say when you believe in Travis Hunter at this place. One, he's going basically where Tedaro and McMillan is. So I'm getting to make the decision between those two rookies, and I'm going to take the guy that was, you know, that I know is going to have the target volume and be the one in Carolina. So that's part of it. The other part is I am entrusting Trevor Lawrence. to supply really functional fantasy value to somebody beyond Brian Thomas. And the fact that the team can make decisions that change week to week on Travis Hunter scares me. Travis Hunter could be a full-time wide receiver for a couple weeks. And then an injury happens at corner. And then they need him to play a corner more. I mean, that variability frightens me a little bit. Will there be games that they need him to play both ways? So he is lower snap percentage player.

I agree that he's the best peer-wide receiver in the draft. It's just unfortunate that he's good at other stuff. And so because of that, I don't know how high the ceiling can get for him. And I guess that makes him too hot to handle for me relative to players I like at that same spot. Yeah, I mean, I understand some people in their drafts, they're cowards. And so I hear what you're saying. Okay. You know, that's fine to take that approach. They call the brave the ones that lean on Trevor Lawrence. It does make, that does make sense. Do you have any issue drafting Brian Thomas Jr.? No. Okay. So you're only, I mean, that's the same quarterback. So if the talent is there for Travis Hunter. Yeah, the talent's there, but the pecking order is not Hunter than Thomas. Correct. And although I do, I think the pecking order in Carolina is Tedd around McMillan. I think.

I'm more confident there. So what about some of the vets that are going behind it? Would you rather have Travis Hunter or Calvin Ridley or Khalil Shakir? It depends on the role they play for my fantasy team. I'm not a scapegoat answer, just genuinely like, do I have to start this guy every week? In a genuine way, it doesn't matter at all what wide, I mean, unless this is my first wide receiver I'm drafting somehow in the seventh round. No, but this is your flex spot? No, I mean, Travis Hunter's upside. is worth it to me. His upside is his athleticism to have just constant breakaway sensational. I mean, he was, what was he the second pick in the NFL draft? They, well, yeah, they trade, number two overall, tons of guaranteed money. This is, this is an incredible, incredible player. I'm, if I can draft incredible players in the seventh round, I'm going to take the risk.

And the best part is this ambiguity might keep him there come August. It will. I sure hope so. It probably will. I mean, you do, I mean, him and Roman Dunezay, you have at least the same argument there because Adunzei has to. They're going right next to each other and has to share, you know, which offense do you like more? Neither guy's going to be the one. So who would you rather have of those two? Rome. I would rather have Travis Hunter. Yeah, they're basically back to back. That's a fun bet. at some point. But I do think we need to stay water with Travis Hunter and how this offseason goes. Because if I feel like this team is the way they're utilizing them in camp is a focal point and offense only and that type of thing. I reserve the right to change. It's tough because when you look at their depth chart, you realize what they drafted Travis Hunter to be. You know, they got rid of Christian Kirk. They got rid of Gabe Davis. They got rid of Evan Ingraham.

They've got Brian Thomas Jr. But then they need Travis Hunter. They need those two guys to be full-time wide receivers. They do. They do. It makes sense. It's a close one. The last name I want to mention is a player that I am, I'm pretty infatuated with. Oh, then I know who it is. It's Tyler Warren. The tight end 11 going in the ninth round. This is the third highest rookie tight-in draft spot in fantasy football history. Is that true? Wow. Thanks, Brock Bowers. It doesn't feel that way in the night. But this is big, I mean, Brock Bowers was an afterthought in drafts last year. He really was. He was a seventh round pick. But Titan 9. If you're drafting him as Titan 9, I mean, I remember, and I'll just own this, it's disgusting. But we all did it. I bypassed Brock Bowers and traded up for Kyle Pitts last year in our League of Record draft. Yeah. I mean, that happened. How's that feel? And by trade, it feels as gross as anything could be.

It feels like I know Mike's not feeling well right now. I felt worse when that happened. But it wasn't, nobody reacted at the draft. It wasn't in a logical decision at the time. Brock Bowers was an eighth round pick. Yeah. And when he was drafted in our league, it was like, okay, cool, you're taking your shot on him. Everybody hated. Everybody hated the Raiders. He still did it. Tyler Warren is so talented. And we're sitting here going, oh, Josh, Downs might be better than Pittman, and Pittman might be better than Downs. Yeah. Anytime you have that discussion at all, you might want to open your eyes to the super freak at tight end that you put on the roster. That discussion of Downs of Pittman is the reason why I like Tyler Warren as my favorite rookie tight end this year is because he could easily become the two and targets on this team. I don't see that for Colson Loveland. I love Warren. This is not too hot to handle.

No, I agree. It's not too hot to handle. I'm fine taking a shot. We talked about this earlier this episode. Once you're tight-in seven, you're irrelevant. You're not a difference maker. So when you're drafting someone at Titan 11, you're streaming the position. Let me just find out. Let me take the shot a week one, see if he's on there and gets, you know, two targets or ten targets? This is like at the end of an opportunity for me at Tight-in, too. I mean, tight-end also, is that the guys behind him don't have tremendous, like Goddard. Okay, no upside. Ferguson. I don't see upside. Dalton Kincaid, you can argue that it'll be all right. You won't. You won't make that argument. I won't, but you can see the path for true upside there. Tucker Kraft has some upside, but there's a lot of, okay, there you go. I mean, Colson Loveland's back there and Kyle Pitts is back there. Yes, Kyle Pitts still being drafted by people. Still being drafted. I thought he'd end up in Miami. Yeah, yeah. I thought that'd be the name, but no. No, Kyle Pitts is still being drafted by people.

But I think Tyler Warren's fine right there. I mean, there's a round and a half later than Bowers. I think where the rookie tight ends are being drafted this year, and it's weird for me to say this, I think they're all fine bets. I mean, whether you're talking Colson Loveland, he's going pretty near him or even go later. Jason, the rookie tight end guy. Yeah. But Terrence Ferguson? Yeah. I mean, Mason Taylor? the Rams and Jets respectively rookie tight ends. I think both those guys are going to be pretty full-time players. Yeah. At least Mason Taylor. This is a really deep tight-end draft class this year. So I don't have problems with any of the rookie tight ends drafted this year in redraft. Amazing. Amazing. Amazing sentence. I do remember saying earlier draft season last year that if Brock Bowers were to do it again, you'd change your tune? That I would adapt. Okay. All right.

I think that's going to wrap it up for today's episode of the show. We want to get this thing out to you. Upcoming shows, we have the AFC North Breakdown coming up on Thursday. Hopefully we'll have Mike back by then, but we'll be going through each of the divisions. We'll get another mock draft draft in there down the line. And a reminder, again, the ultimate draft kit. You can go over there. The draft analyzer released today. It's available as part of the UDK Plus or if you're an ultimate Foot clan member at join thefoot.com. Either way, you get it. And you can check that out, ultimate draft kit.com. All right, that is going to do it for today's show on behalf of the bear and Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. Shout out to the Ducers back there in Ducers Alley. We'll be back on Thursday. Take care. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.