Booty-Scootin' Cam Newton + Hold Em' or Fold Em' - Fantasy Football Podcast

Yeah, AJ Brown needing some bulletin board material found a tweet of mine the other day where I was thankful, you know, I tend to be a positive tweeter, but you never know what someone's going to find. And it was, I had tweeted the worst mistake that AJ Brown ever made was standing next to D.K. Metcalfe in that pre-draft photo because he's a monster. He's a beast. He's a huge, like, AJ Brown is not of this world as much.

as D.K. Metcalf is, you know, a monstrous wide receiver, a big guy, a big body Des Bryant like Kai. So it was kind of like you underestimated that physical prowess of A.J. Brown, which obviously he said, that was stupid to underestimate me. Look what I did on the field. And from a physical standpoint, I mean, I have this in here. According to next gen stats, Brown led the league in yards after catch above expectation. No one.

was like him in the NFL last year in terms of, you know, taking the ball and going up field and disappearing. I mean, he just manhandled people. So, you know, he responded and said, hey, good. I'll just continue to be, you know, undervalued. And I'll continue to do what I've done. Last year from Weeks 10 on and points per game, AJ Brown was the number two fantasy wide receiver. That's pretty good. Yeah, number two is all right.

You know, we obviously saw what Ryan Tannenhill did in that span. Now you come into this year as ADP right now is the wide receiver 16. That's not. It's dropped. And why I said I was going to confuse the footline is because I kind of look at that and I'm confusing myself because I'm like everything that happened. 16. 16. Oh my goodness. See what I'm saying. No, you're, no, I'm reevaluating J. Brown. So I think maybe we've. Early in the off season, sorry to interrupt, but early in the off season. I know that he was like.

He was up near top 10 at wide receiver. And these regression metrics, right? Touchdowns in 2019, he had eight of them. His touchdowns based on expectation for those routes and those plays would have been just three touchdowns. I mean, he was a player that essentially outperformed the opportunity in the same way that Tannenhill did. We've made this argument all year long about how this team runs through Derek Henry, but now I see that wide receiver 16 number. And you guys just talked about Mark Andrews.

Mark Andrews versus the chance at these stretches of games where he's the number two overall wide receiver, the player, the talent coming into the league. How much I loved A.J. Brown. And then he carries it out in one of the hardest, most difficult places to do it. Some place Corey Davis couldn't do it for years. And with his draft capital. And I thought I was going to say I'm still folding. But I'm not. No, you should not. No, I'm in.

That's a hold at draft pick overall 44. Shh. Everyone shut your mouth. Let's keep him at wide receiver 16 so that we can draft it because it's too affordable for a potential top 10 wide receiver. Well, what's his floor? Because I recognize that you take a bunch of touchdowns away and he only had 52 receptions last year. Granted, that was a rookie. Those will go up a little bit, but he's not a high volume guy because this is not a high volume passing offense. Yeah, but it was a rookie year and he didn't surpass 55% of snaps until.

Week 5. Oh. So he wasn't even on the field. And we all knew that. And we all saw that. And it was a problem. So what's his floor? Like wide receiver 20? Yeah. Yes. I mean, his floor is four picks below. Yeah. If you're drafted a wide receiver 16, this is.

This is great information because both of us were surprised. We don't just sit there and study ADP every single day because it changes so often. It was a bit shocking to me. And you look at the situation, here's the problem that will happen. And we saw it in the playoffs and those aren't manifested in the consistency charts on the website. He's going to disappear. There's going to be a week like week 13 where he's the 59. But every wide receiver kind of disappears. The real question is, is he going to win you weeks? Yes. And AJ Brown is, you know, a sophomore.

in the NFL. They brought back the player that made him the number two wide receiver from Weeks 10 on, and your price is wide receiver 16 now, not the kind of hype, not the kind of price that it was earlier in the off season. People have cooled on him. They've cooled on Tanna Hill. They have not carried both of those numbers through to the ADP anymore. So at this point, I'm going to hold AJ Brown. I would as well. Like I have him ranked right now as wide receiver 18.

And that was almost hot takey to the point of you can see how confused we are about that ADP drop. So he's a 14. So he's ahead of the ADP. Yeah, absolutely. At that point, you've got a, you've got a safe enough floor and a high ceiling. So yeah, thanks for the information, fellas. All right, the player I'm going to bring up is one that I have had, I would say, a battle with over the last couple of years.

I've not been very kind to Mr. Odell Beckham Jr. That's true. Has hurt many fantasy players. I would say three years in a row. I realize that he was, I know Mike always grimaces because the year before last. Because that's the year before. Nary a positive word from you on him. Nary a positive word. Nary a positive word.

The year before last, O'Dell Beckham had a very strong overall season. He was very good. He finished as the wide receiver 16, but only played 12 games. Wide receiver 16 and 12 games is a very good season. But he obviously let everybody down because he was injured for the playoffs. Nobody won with O'Dell Beckham because he wasn't there when you needed him at the end of the season. My point is this. Back to back to back years of.

Being drafted in the first round and not helping you win a championship. That's a fair point. I mean, three consecutive years of that is true. And all three because of injury, right? He only played four games the first year. Then he missed the, you know, the four most important games the next year. And now this last year he didn't, you know, he didn't miss games. He played all 16, except it was injury, right? That's what people are saying. It was he was hobbled. It was a core issue. Obviously, it was.

injury. He had it surgically fixed. So I don't usually get elective surgeries for no reason. I'm not like, I wasn't injured, but I would love a core surgery. Yeah, we were shooting for the Clementine, all right? Oh, yeah. I was really wanting the Clementine surgery. Yeah. Um, so look, Odo Beckham Jr. Uh, he has obviously had great spurts within, uh, his career. He is.

a great wide receiver. So, Neri a kind word. There's a kind word. There's a kind word. There are kind words. He is a great wide receiver. He was playing with injury last year. There are a couple pretty crazy stats when it comes to O'Dow Beckham Jr. He had the second most deep targets in the NFL, which is great, except, you know, that's, it doesn't feel that great. Here's my favorite. Since 2000.

Since the year 2000, there have been 301 wide receiver seasons where they had 132 or more targets. It's a lot of targets. And that's a large sample size, 301. And Odell Beckham's last year ranks 27th in terms of PPR fantasy points. He stunk. He was trash last year for this Browns team. And Baker Mayfield was trash.

So hold them or fold them, you would assume I'm out again. I assumed I was out again. But I am actually a holdem if the ADP holds on Odell Beckham, who is not a first round pick, as I feared he might be again. He is a third round pick. He is going right now between DJ Moore and Alan Robinson. Look, all of those, those three guys have worries to me.

DJ Moore hasn't really proven it for a long time. No, it feels so good to hear one of you two say that about DJ Moore. I mean, it's sure. I'm waiting for that all summer long. We're DJ. Somebody to say he's not guaranteed. But he's not guaranteed. Alan Robinson, I've, you know, been on record being, you know, pitchforked and and torches with you two coming after me for my lack of love for Alan Robinson. And here with O'Dell Beckham, at that point in the draft.

Look, 132 targets is a really nice number he had last year. And I think that he didn't get those for no reason. He got those because he is great. And the thing is, is in 2016, Alan Robinson was 281 on that list of those 301. DeAndre Hopkins in 2016 was 285th. Mike Evans was 275th. Okay, so Otto Beckham was 277. But the thing that's in common with these guys,

is that they're great, and that's why they kept getting that many targets even when they were struggling. And after those years, Hopkins, Alan Robinson, and Mike Evans have dominated. So if I'm picking in the third round, and I'm looking at ceiling, and I say which one of these guys could end up as the wide receiver one? Only Odell Beckham is there. Alan Robinson is not wide receiver one. I don't believe DJ Moore's wide receiver one. And at that price,

If he creeps up to the top of the second, well, I'm not competing with DJ Moore and Alan Robinson anymore. So right now I'm a hold on Odell Beckham. And I think with that surgery, with that fixed, he's going to show that he is a great wide receiver this year, though. Biggest risk is obviously injury. This is a real eye-opening episode. I'm most certainly a fold on Odell Beckham, Jr.

At that price. We just talked about a receiver around later that I think has just as much of a chance to be wide receiver one as Beckham does. Sure. I mean, the argument for AJ Brown a round and a half later, I feel like he's just as much of a dice roll on production as Odell Beckham has been based on the past three years. You mix that with a concerning Baker Mayfield season that could mean quarterback to Malt and the Kevin Stefansky hire.

And it does not make me feel cozy in the third round. I get that. I love the fourth round wide receivers right now. I love AJ Brown. His value is better to me than O'Dell Beckham's value. So, but the question isn't, which one are you taking? You're playing that ADB game when you're on the clock. So here's the running backs, let's say. Maybe you agree. You're not a huge DJ Moore fan. Here's the running backs that are right there. Lev Bell, Chris Carson, James Connor. You're saying versus Odell? Versus O'Dell Beckham. Lev Bell, Chris Carson, James Connor? Yeah.

Chris Carson's interesting, but my point is you're going to have to draft someone in that round. I'm not excited. I bypass. Yeah, you know how I'm drafting AJ Brown now. In that round. Sure. I mean, maybe. Maybe that is the right. Heads up with Odell Belcombe Jr. It's very close between those two. But you're a fold. I am a fold. Yeah, Mike, where are you? I have Beckham right now at 20. I think I would hold.

for now because I I my argument drafted at wide receiver 10 but you would still hold I have him at 13 in my right yeah he's at wide receiver 10 because the wow man that's just that's really high that's much higher than I haven't ranked those the argument for what you were talking about Jason I was going to say yeah but he gets the targets you had since cleared that up like he's going to get the targets yes I don't know though man Austin Hooper's arrival

Jarvis Landrie gets his targets. Yeah, well, Jarvis got his targets. Jarvis got his last year. All right. Real quick, I've got to throw. They weren't pretty targets. I've got to throw to Brooks because the head has been more vigorous than I have ever seen. He doesn't even know he's been doing this, nodding in agreement when I talk about his injuries, nodding an agreement when, you know, you're, I think this is a strong fold, but maybe I'm reading the head movement wrong. Brooks, Judge Diomati, where do you stand? Hold or fold on Odell Beckham Jr.

Fold him. Yeah, I mean, that head was. You could see a lot of emotion over there. I feel like usual me would be listening to this and screaming at me saying he's such an injury risk. What are you doing? Later, you might be listening to this and screaming at you. That's true. It's a matter of whether his ADP. Or last year's Odell Beckham, you would have been screaming. Stay water, my friends. See, it's funny. The ADP, in the way that AJ Brown shocked me that it was late, it kind of shocked me that.

Beckham was this significantly above where AJ Brown was. Yeah, it's wild. And also, but I have to do this, Jason. Okay. Into this bust year of 2018, yeah, I get it. He got hurt and he wasn't there for the fantasy playoffs. But he was the wide receiver seven up until that point. He was great. Through 12 games. You're speaking my point here, Mike. He got you to the playoffs. That's not a bust. It's so ridiculous to call him that.

I look for the purpose of this argument you call him a bus last year Mike last year I yes he was a he was a bust compared to his his ADP yeah yeah last year he was a disaster unmitigated disaster yeah for sure I mean all right yeah who we got Mike all right I don't think I really fully understood the game that we were going to play of this trying to trying to set up a a player who is ambiguous