WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/3

We're pretty confident Kyler is not going to be there week one. Earlier in the offseason, the trajectory and him even saying like he's trying to get ready for week one, it seemed far more possible. And Marquise Hollywood Brown will be the number one target in the offense without Kyler. So it's not going to be completely worthless. For sure, for sure. He had four games last year at the end of the season where he didn't have Kyler. One of those games, he was. Good. The other three, he was bad. That being said, you know, then you have Hopkins to contend with as well, and you're not the one. So I think if you take the risk on Hollywood, it could pay off. I'm not out on Hollywood at his ADP. His ADP kind of has it baked in that that Kyler is going to miss that time. Yeah, wider receiver 29. That's way below. And we all have them ahead of that. Yeah, I mean.

Let's say Kyler was healthy, okay? Let's just play the hypothetical game. Kyler never got injured. He's coming into this season. They did still trade Hopkins. What would Hollywood's outcome be? Like, as though clear de facto one for Kyler Murray, where would he be drafted? ADP? Widercher 15. Yeah. 16. So if Kyler comes back in week four and you have. let's say the rest of the season, the wide receiver 15, and you're drafting about the wide receiver 30, is it worth taking a couple weeks of still a usable asset? It's not like you wouldn't be able to play Hollywood through those first couple weeks. Let me put some more context in here for you because fantasy football very often. It's about how you start. That's how you then feel about players. So here's the Cardinals opening schedule.

It's not good. At Washington. With a not Tyler. Yeah. I'm going to go all four of these games. Let's say it's Colt McCoy. At Washington, it's not the worst. Not the best. The New York Giants. They were a playoff team. Their secondary, though, is beatable. But then is Dallas and on the road against San Francisco. Those are not, like, that's not a string of four games where you're super pumped. to have your wide receiver won against those teams? I'm nervous. I'm just more nervous than I was earlier. We're, you know, we've said, Jason, you've said you're staying away from Carolina wide receivers, okay, because you got a rookie quarterback there. You know, you got worse than a rookie in Arizona. I mean, potentially.

Bryce Young is going to be a better option, I think, than those two guys for the first four weeks. So it just makes me nervous. Like it's a bumpier ride than we thought it would be. And I don't know if I want to go on the ride unless it's super, super cheap. You get into the seventh round. Maybe you're just, maybe he's just a depth piece and you're waiting for Kyla to return. And that's okay. Yeah, if he's a bench piece, I think you're right. But looking, I pulled up the ADP just to see like push comes to shove. I'm, you know, on the clock. And there's guys behind him that I would rather have.

You know, I would rather have Tyler Lockett being drafted behind him. I agree. So I won't be taking Hollywood over him. Andy, I know you like Mike Evans going behind him. And Deontay Johnson or Jordan Addison, Jehan Dodson, there's some higher upside guys that you don't have the opening worries about. All right. At 17, we have the first wide receiver we're talking about today. That same team, same quarterback. to start the season. Super good. Super good. Super good quarterback. Super good quarterback. 24 years old. Last year's wide receiver 14 and ADP. Devante Smith, who helped Jason to a championship last year with his second half of the season ascension. Right now, I seem to still have a problem with wide receiver 2s based on my rankings because you guys have them at 13 and 15.

I got him at 22 right now. I need to take a closer look at that where that relates to T. Higgins after our conversations yesterday. But you brought it up. You know, if you want to find a reason why Devante Smith might not be as effective, a healthy Dallas Goddard led to some lower outputs from him. Obviously, AJ Brown is the alpha in the equation. You're going to have some pass catchers in the backfield that they didn't have, DeAndre Swift. I think that the moral of the story is Devante Smith is probably really his floor where he's where he's ending up. I mean, 14 to 17, it seems hard to see him lower than that. As far as finishing the season yet. Yeah, as a fantasy finish outside of injury or some massive problem. I just don't, like an injury or hurts or him. I think he's around his floor. Well, the case against him is that a lot of his production came.

And it leveled up when Dallas Goddard was gone. Right. And so the question is, is that the new normal? Is he going to receive that level of targets with Dallas Goddard healthy and on the field? He's obviously going into year three. He should just be getting better. But the positive narrative here is the Eagles can't possibly, cannot possibly play as few of snaps. you know, without trailing. They were just always in the lead last year. I don't have the tweet in front of me, but I know Rich Rebar showed the first half points from Devante Smith versus the second half points. And he was basically a top 10 wide receiver in the first half of games because he was just, they're throwing the ball. If the Eagles don't have as easy a time this season and, you know,

It probably they won't just because everything changes year after year. I think Devante Smith could be a top 12 wide receiver this season. Yeah, they have a turnover on offensive and defensive coordinator this year in Philadelphia. They're going to play a tougher schedule. So maybe they're in more of those games. But Devante Smith is just an elite player and he's going to have lots of opportunities. So Mike, what is the true? What's the peak finish for Devante Smith? He was the wide receiver of five over the last, from week 10 on, but it's a smaller stretch. Sure. Like absolute ceiling, I'm in agreement with Jason that I think A.J. Brown and Devante Smith could both be top 12 wide receivers. They could be the pair that ends up there over the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, having the two in the top 12. It was an interesting season of like,

Like I said, how things start affects how you think about players so strongly. And it could not have started worse for Devonza Smith last year because he had, let me check my notes, zero points in week one against the Detroit Lions in a high scoring game. You had four targets, no catches. And I think that was a product of, they got AJ Brown. And they were trying to figure things out because it bounced back in a really big way. And then you can look through just the box score. His down games, they tend to make sense. It's like against Houston. Wide receivers didn't do anything against Houston because they did not need to do anything. And he's just, he's an excellent player. We're heading into year three. I think that the Eagles have figured out how to use both of these wide receivers. So I.

I don't have Smith ranked in my top 12 because I think that's the ceiling. I have more of an average type of a finish. But I think he is a really solid addition despite the fact that he is the two on his team. 16, a player opposite in proportions in every way, shape, and form when compared to DeVant to Smith. Seahawks' wide receiver, 25 years old, third round draft pick, D.K. Metcalfe. D.K. Metcalf, we have quite a range in our individual rankings. He comes in at 15 for us, or I'm sorry, 16 for us, but I'm at 10. Jason at 15, Mike, at 25. I'm probably a bit low, but I'm more of the bear case. Clearly. He's actually standing outside. He heard of the bear? No, D.K. Metcalf heard about the ranking and, well, I would say be better. He couldn't get through that. Oh, man, say it to his face. I will. Say it to his face, Mike. I want to say it.

Through a plexiglass protection. He'll walk right through that. He'll blow it down. DK Metcalf, I've risen a lot on him. Andy has made strong arguments for him, the positive touchdown regression that should come for him with the amount of red zone and in zone targets that he receives year after year after year and the fact that he usually has double digit touchdowns. And then there's also the case that. You know, the start of seasons really, really matters for players. You just brought it up with the bad start last year for Devontas Smith. Do you guys know who the Seahawks play the first two weeks? Rams. The Rams? Okay, that's great. That's great. Maybe as good as it gets. Although there's probably one better. The Lions, which is the next week. So.

Um, okay. Obviously that affects Tyler Lockett and JSN and Gino Smith. Um, I love Michael Keith. Yeah, but D.K. Metcalf is someone who has that wide receiver one overall possibility. Yeah, you could, you could see going into week three and he's got four touchdowns on the on the stat sheet already. I mean, it happened. Um, entering year five prime territory for that alpha season. The touchdowns will come back to D.K. Metcalf. I want to be there when they do. It is, um, I went back and watched and I don't, I'd give credit to whoever posted it, but somebody, it might have been Kyle. I don't remember. Somebody posted every single one of the red zone targets from last year. And so it was fun to watch through those and say like, okay, that one he should have caught. Like he had some drops in there. And then there were other.

you know, bad passes or just, it just didn't quite work out. And if like three or four of those had, we wouldn't even be, he wouldn't be here. That was, that was Kyle that posted it. I saw it as well. And I, I just did the counting. I was like, which one of those, you know, one of them, he stepped on. You added them up? I mean, mentally, I was just, oh, he just stepped on the line. He caught the ball, but he was just like, oh, he's ruled out or whatever. This one, just a weird unusual drop in the ends of these weren't.

These were like he should have absolutely had four or five more touchdowns, and you're right. He wouldn't be drafted where he is right now if those had come last year. At Kyle underscore Borg. Oh, okay. On Twitter. It's a good follow. So will the ADP hold here and are you willing to draft him a widersterer 15 where you have them ranked Jason? Yeah. When I'm on the clock, they're the only consideration where I don't sometimes take. the shot on DK is, I think the value is better on Tyler Lockett. And I will never draft both of those guys. So it kind of removes for me that seventh round layup pick. That's the only thing that's, but do you not, let me, let me put it this way. If Jackson Smith and Jigba is it, what, I mean, and let's say Lockett or Metcalf are negatively impacted, I've always kind of gone to the default and I guess ADP has too.

that it would be Lockett that would be suffering from that breakout. Obviously, I'm saying if he's it. Like if JSN comes out and he's the number, he's like the one target, you know, he's the guy getting a ton of PPR opportunities. Have you entertained the Locket downside or is there none because the price is just so cheap? Yeah, there's, you know, you talk. okay, we're always looking at risk versus reward. You're not risking much. So it's like it's reward versus very little risk and it's worth taking. I don't see a world where JSN overtakes either one of the other two wide receivers positionally. So he's going to play the slot. And maybe what happens is the Seahawks surprise us and run more 11 personnel. And they are in three wide receiver sets far more than they were last year. And JSN just happens to.

become that first read. And if that happens, it's going to negatively affect both of the players. It's not going to like, he's not going to overtake Lockett or overtake Metcalf and replace one of them. Yeah, I mean, Lockett's a big play guy. Metcalf is a touchdown guy. So, you know, I could see that. Number 15, it's T. Higgins. He's going, and I mentioned it yesterday. In fact, I'll shut up here in a second because I made a long, drawn out case to him being overvalued. I'm at 21. The ADP is the top of the third at wide receiver 12. I think it's too expensive. If you want to hear everything I said as to why, you can listen to Ice and Fire episode from yesterday. I just think everything has to go right for him to hit this ADP and the odds of that are very low. You guys gave rebuttals. I mean, you talked about the fact that a couple of his games he was injured, didn't play a lot of snaps, and you projected the other games. That's tough because you don't know if those two games that it came out injured,

And he's healthy in them. You don't know if there were duds or studs. And he has a lot of both. He has a lot of games where he wasn't that good. He has a lot of games where he was. So it's hard to know what that outcome would have been. But, you know, he's going very, very high. He's going at wide receiver 12. He's going ahead of the guys we've talked to. He's going ahead of Devante Smith. Yeah, when, when I like Devante Smith better, but. Whenever you're looking at these wide receiver twos for their teams that are very, very talented that are playing with good quarterbacks on good offenses, you basically are saying I'm betting on a young talented player with a great quarterback who's got a great offense. And that's usually a wise bet to make. So are you drafting him near his ceiling? Potentially, yes. Now, not at all if he has the...

baked in upside of should something happen to Jamar Chase. Sure. He could go nuclear. He would be the number one read for Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is going to throw 4,535. So he does have a ceiling case, you know, as injury protection insurance for Jamar Chase, who has missed games already. I mean, we brought up last year. Oh, some of, some of Higgins big games were when Jamar Chase missed. Yeah, that could still happen again. And when they were both on the field, he was actually pretty consistent there too. So I don't have a problem just betting on Joe Barrow and the talent of T. Higgins. Clearly, no one has that problem based on where he's being drafted. Right. I'm with Jason. That it's a bet on the player, which I think T. Higgins on pretty much most other teams would.

be the number one wide receiver. They just happened to have Jamar Chase, who's what I, top three wide receiver in the NFL already. And it's a bet on the Cincinnati Bengals continuing to do what they did last year, which was they let Joe Burrow go and cook and actually be the team. It was no longer the scared Zach Taylor were going to run, run, run, Joe Burrow bail us out type of an offense. So he's just, he is an extremely difficult player because I want him on my teams. Yeah, he's very safe. I'm not, this is nothing about T. Higgins being bad. I just wish he was the wide receiver 18 and ADP. That's it. Yes. 18, I'd be, I'd be cool with that. I just, I'm a little nervous about the price. Totally agree. Let's talk about a player now that has been rarely talked about this offseason. We've had big debates on certain players, but this guy's ranked ahead of everybody we've talked about so far, and it's number 14.

Amari Cooper. Still hanging with Mr. Cooper here. I've got him at 13. Jason at 17. Mike at 17. This is another. This is another example. I like yours too. 406. Wide receiver 18 off the board, a round and a half later than T. Higgins. If Deshaun Watson is back to the form where he finished it, what, number five, three, four years in a row. Sure. It's a big if. It's a little lift. I think it's a little lift. Really? I do. I actually think it's a very little lift. Just watching him play last year. I don't know if I shared it with the company Slack, but Warren Sharp did a tweet thread of all of Deshaun Watson's longest throws, like air yard throws. Oh, man. The touch and the decision making was.

It was like he hadn't played football in a while. Right. Look, to me it's a lower, it's a lower if because this is an established, extremely talented individual. His decline did come with age. He had, he played a couple of really tough matchups and he hadn't played in a year and a half. He's got a whole offseason and I have more confidence in him. I know nobody wants him to succeed. I understand that. But if he does, Amari Cooper may be undervalued at the wide receiver. 18 and ADPs. That's fair. In ADP. We all have him higher than that because he is a, he is the go-to receiver for this roster and he still is. Like I like Elijah Moore. I think he'll be involved. I like David Najoku. He'll be involved. It's Amari Cooper's wide receiver room. Yeah, it is. I mean, when you look at last year, it's hard to separate that. You know, he was so good with Jacoby Percette and he was so bad with Deshaun Watson. And

the if question about whether Watson gets it together or not. To me, I think that there is some, it's not just rust and it's not just time not playing football. It's also the public pressure that he has gone through the human element of, you know, like when Tiger Woods had his fall from grace, it affected his play for a long time. And I know there were injuries there as well. But it's like he's a human being. And the whole world wants him to fail. And so I think it affects performance on the field. Now, maybe that's a silly way to look at it, but that's kind of how I'm making the bet. That's why I see it as a big if. And Amari Cooper has always been a player who is really good.

But it always comes inconsistently. He'll always have half the season that's good and half the season that's bad. We're going into his ninth season. Like we know what Amari Cooper is. He's a really solid NFL wide receiver who for fantasy purposes will finish the year strongly and be inconsistent on the path to get there. Where he's being drafted, I feel like there are players I'm more excited about in the fourth round. You know, that's where I talked about Keenan Allen yesterday. Like I would rather. If I'm going to bet on, I'd rather bet on Joe Burrow and Herbert than on Baltimore. Yeah. Yeah, that's one of our biggest disagreements on the show this year is how we see that playing out for the Cleveland Browns. I think that they are going to be a really good team. You guys are not bullish on Deshawn Watson's output. They're going to start the season at home against Cincinnati, then play.

the Steelers, the Titans, and the Ravens. They're three out of the four games are going to be at home to start the season. That's a tough, that's a tough four-pack. And we'll get to see it. We'll get to see it on display. And, you know, Marty Cooper had a really good start to it last year. Last year, he was one of the best picks in the draft through the first 12 weeks. And then it obviously fell off. Chris Olavie comes in at 13. Wide receiver 13 off the board. ADP of 306. Mike's the highest at 13. I'm at 15, Jason, at 18. It's 23 years old. Get ready for year two of this budding superstar. I wish the draft price was a little lower. Agreed. I do wish that other people were somehow blind to his talent. But this is where we are with fantasy football. The crowd is getting better.

at the game and like people are catching on of oh i should be targeting second year wide receivers who had great rookie seasons because more often than not it turns those are the players that take the the jet pack into superstardom i love chris oliva like he he wins everywhere on the field the upgrade from andy dalton to derrick car especially when it comes to deep passes i think is a substantial upgrade i don't want to overvalue what Derek Carr does versus Andy Dalton, but it's enough. It is absolutely enough for me to take Chris Olabe at his ADP. I am in agreement, Andy, that I wish it wasn't there because you are, the risk is you're taking Chris Oliva at, like there's a small margin for error should something go awry. Like if Chris Oliva is the wide receiver.

15 at the end of the year and you spent a third round pick on him. It feels like you didn't get a return on your draft pick. So that's the concern. But I think that this guy who outproduced Garrett Wilson, who is going many spots ahead of Chris Olivae, who also Aaron Rogers is an older quarterback. We're not 100% sure that he's got it. But this Chris Olivae is going, in my opinion. will outproduce his ADP, and by next year he's going to be looked at as one of those top-tier superstars. I saw, I think it was Local Saints Radio, talking about their schedule this year. Oh, yes. And then asking to name the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Oh, they don't play any of them. Yeah, I mean, they play in order. Tanna Hill, Bryce Young, Jordan, Love, Baker, Mayfield, Mac Jones, CJ Stroud, presumably. Then you face Lawrence, finally.

Pretty good quarterback. Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, then you face the Falcons twice with Desmond Ritter, Bryce Young again, Jared Golf. I mean, they don't play any of the, they may, their schedule's nice. Yeah, but what you just said was pro Kendra Miller and the running game and winning ball games. Well, pro defense too. Yeah, absolutely. Like they may not need to air it out as much. They may not need to, but looking at the strength of schedule, this is last years, of course, if you're applying what happened last year, Tennessee. The building next door, if you hear it coming through the microphone, they're bulldozing, apparently bulldozing the neighborhood. We're going to be the last one. The best matchup for wide receivers was the Tennessee Titans. That's who they opening it. The fourth best was the Carolina Panthers. Week four.

Seventh best, week five, 10th. Like, they have by far the, on paper, the best strength of schedule for the wide receiver position. And it's a hot, it's not just like, oh, they have some tough ones at the beginning, then they get into it. No, it's exciting. We start hot, we close hot. Hot to hot. Yeah. At 12, speaking of hot, this was Jason's fire player on yesterday's episode. Keenan Allen of the Chargers, 31 years old. Mike has him at 10. I got him at 14. Jason at 19 Jason. The question that I think we all have is why do you hate him? I made my case for why I love him yesterday. My rankings stand where they do. But you don't have a much safer option out there. Every player can get injured. I'm not worried about like that's the argument against him, right?

If he's out there playing. Older players, too, higher propensity for that to happen. We saw Thielen breakdown that way. If he's out there playing the role that he has played, you know, his entire career and he's out there for 17 games, you're not going to be disappointed with him, especially drafting him as a wide receiver two, where you're not paying wide receiver one prices in the draft. Are you happy in full PPR to have him as your wide receiver one? Like if the draft goes away, you want to spend on a onesie position? If I was in full PPR, I would imagine in that situation, that means I've got two great running backs and a quarterback already. Or Andrews and Kelsey. Yeah, or Andrews and Kelsey. And then a full PPR, I go Keenan as my one. I'd be happy with that, yeah. Yeah, we're excited about the offense there. If you want to hear more about our discussions on Keenan Allen, they were verbose yesterday. We got a chance to get into it.

At 11, last wide receiver on today's countdown before breastball breakdown. It's Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins, 24 years old. I think I brought it up earlier this offseason. It is a weird thing to have a player that outpaced Tyreek Hill in average yards per reception. And that's what Jalen Waddle did. He is as close to Tyree Kill as you get. And they play on the same football team. Finished at wide receiver 7 last year. It was incredible. Managed to do it with Tua in and out of the lineup. Like I'm so excited about both Waddle and Tyreek Hill in particular. Like someone on Twitter was like, oh, can I take Tyreek at number three? I'm like, yeah, of course you can. Tyree Kill's going to be great. And I think Jalen Waddle will be as well. So is 11 the right spot for him. I got him in nine, Jason 11, Mike 12, we all are in that range. Do you have any nervousness around this guy? My nervousness comes.