NFC North Breakdown + Buzzkill Train, Happy Hearts - Fantasy Football Podcast

worry was the threat from a few weeks ago that Davao Cook said he will not show up if he does not have a new deal. And we're, you know, a week away or so from finding out if that is actually the truth. And I'll reevaluate after that. But for now, I'll still take him where Jason's talking about taking him. Right now he's the RB5 off the board. Are you expecting the same from Kirk Cousins in terms of efficiency? Like, would you be comfortable?

with him as your QB2. Oh, yeah. A QB2. He's in a super flex league. Yeah. And the defense shouldn't be as good. I mean, you know, Zimmer is a defensive-minded and a very good defensive-minded head coach that gets the most out of the players he has. But you still have to play with the players that you have. And he's lost a lot of their mainstays on defense. So, you know, I don't think they're going to have the luxury of.

as many games where they can throw the ball. I mean, there were some games where you had Kirk Cousins, you know, barely throw the ball in a victory. Remember week one where he threw the ball ten times? That was the worst. Ten times in a victory. That's absurd. But you had other games, 21 attempts, 27 attempts. Well, yeah, if you remember, the secondary, especially with Xavier Rhodes, just disintegrating. The secondary last year actually became a target for

fantasy wide receivers. I think that's the kind of fantasy message for this offense is that you're always trying to with your roster just magnify opportunities for success. And this is an offense where you will have those weeks, but the passing offense probably will not be in the top half of the league in terms of opportunities. So if you're banking on an Adam Thielen or on a Justin Jefferson breakout.

or even on, you know, Kyle Rudolph for a spot start or an Irv Smith for a spot start, you really have to pick the right week and the right, you know, you have to get the right Kirk Cousins that week or the right game script that week unless things fall apart completely for the defense and they have to turn it over to Cousin. That's what I was going to follow up with. In Kurt Cousins' range of outcomes, it reminds me of like back when I would draft Tony Romo because Romo was always.

super efficient, usually pretty solid for fantasy football. In the range of outcomes for the Vikings, the defense, the secondary does not work out, and they have to turn the ball over to Kirk a little bit more, and then he becomes, you know, like a low-end, low-end QB1. The 606 pass attempts in his first year in Minnesota was a career high for him. That was 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns. So, you know, they...

they weren't as good, and I think Zimmer will be focused on that. You know, they were not as good of a team. Last year, he only threw the ball 444 times. But if you do look at the second half of the year when their defense started to erode, and I think it's worse coming into 2020 than it was at the second half of last year, he was on pace for 523 attempts over the second half of the year. So I've actually got him going up from that number in passing attempts.

part of why I like Adam Thielen. You're saying, I don't know if we could start Kyle Rudolph for Irv Smith or Justin Jefferson, but Adam Thielen is the clear one. Yes. He was a top 10 wide receiver before he got injured last season. He was a top 10 fantasy wide receiver the year before and the year before. I am 100% fine with Adam Thieland where he's going in drafts. Yeah, he feels the safest in the passing game by far. Yes. Far and away. The Bears, eight and eight last year.

They had 12 games of their 16 that were one score games. They didn't go the Packer route. They went 500, 6 and 6, which is about how you'd imagine those to end up. This was a bad year on offense. rushing yards per game, 27th in the league after being 11th in 2018, 28th and rushing touchdowns, 25th in passing yards per game, 25th and passing touchdowns. If you had your eyes open and you watched a Bears game,

You saw them struggle on offense. Matt Nagy's still there. New offensive coordinator, Bill Laser, replacing the hell frick experience, the hellish experience from last year. And, you know, it's hard to blame the officer coordinator with what you saw from Mitch Trubisky. Huge step back in year two. You know, looking at the landscape for the Chicago Bears, you're talking about Mitch Trubisky. You're talking about.

Nick Foles, who ends up in that, you know, starting quarterback position? And then how does it affect fantasy relevant players like David Montgomery, Alan Robinson, and a player that I think, you know, has that breakout potential Anthony Miller if he can get consistent quarterback play? Yeah, I mean, this is going to be one of the most upsetting things to have no preseason for because the bears are going to have the luxury.

If they so choose to not tell anyone who their starter is. And for us to not have any evidence, Matt Nagy is 100% doing that. Exactly. That's what I would expect him to do. And we won't have the luxury. You know, sometimes preseason makes the decisions, even just social, you know, warriors are going to clamor for the one in preseason who is.

clearly better. And that's not going to be, there's not going to be a public viewing of this competition. So we won't know. I personally right now have them split. I have eight games for Foles and eight games for Trubisky. One of them starts, the other takes over the second half. And when I look at my numbers that I've statted out for each one, while I have talked about, I don't think Foles is a huge upgrade. He is an upgrade for the receiving options. I have him with more yardage, more passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions.

If I'm looking at Alan Robinson or Anthony Miller, I think you want Nick Foles to be the starting quarterback. Mike, did you want to weigh in on the quarterbacks at all? Sure. It's funny. I think it doesn't matter because I'll say this. Whatever happens is going to happen in reverse, no matter what, in my opinion. Nick Foles starts the season, Mitch Trubisky will be closing the season. If Trubisky opens, Nick Foles will be closing.

the season for the Bears because neither of them is going to be able to get the job done. And Matt Nagy is going to be playing for his coaching career at that point. So he's going to have to switch no matter what. I guess I would prefer foals for the receivers. But I mean, Trubisky has shown that he'll be absolutely target lock onto Alan Robinson who deserves those targets. Last year, Alan Robinson had the third most targets. He is now like,

fully removed and fully healthy after his ACL tear, which, by the way, found out, hot fact, Alan Bernard. Alan Bernard Robinson. So you know that dude is an absolute savage. If he's walking around, his name is Alan Bernard. The second. He's the second Alan Bernard Robinson. Are we calling him Bernie? Is that what we're doing? No, no, no. But as far as like Montgomery, if we're talking about the quarterback,

I honestly just, I don't think it matters. I think that they're both equally able to get something done on the offensive side. For Montgomery, it will come down to how well can that offensive line actually play. I agree with you. I don't think that I'm making a lot of decisions based on projecting Foles as the starter versus Trubisky as the starter. I already know that Alan Robinson can play with bad quarterbacks.

and still give you fantasy production. The more interesting thing is if Trubisky could turn it around a little bit or if Foles ends up being a much better option, will Anthony Miller be able to provide week-to-week value, flex opportunities? Over the last seven games, he had 55 targets. It's 125 target pace. And if you used your eyeballs, this is a super talented player who made some big-time contested catches, who made some big-time plays for this offense.

and if he does take a step forward, can either of these quarterbacks support two guys? Because if he takes a step forward, does it come at the expense of Alan Robinson? Yeah, I mean, I have Alan Robinson the lowest, right? Mike, you've got him at number nine, Andy at number 11, so you both have him as a wide receiver one. I've got him down at 21, which I've gotten a lot of flack for. You know, he's been the target monster in his career. Obviously, he was...

last year, but it was still Trubisky throwing on the ball the year prior when he was on pace for 116 targets. I don't think he was coming off an ACL tear. Okay, he was coming off of it, but he was out there. He was, that's fine. But I'm just saying it's within the range of outcomes for him to not be 140 target player next year, especially if Anthony Miller steps up. And it's healthier, really. I mean, Anthony Miller's had problems with health.

Throughout his career. And, you know, they obviously signed Jimmy Graham. We don't love him, but you give $9 million to a player to throw the ball his way from time to time when that's the only thing you can do with Jimmy Graham. So, you know, I just don't see Alan Robinson as, he's a great player. That's a lot of targets. I don't see him as a lot. 154 targets last year. If I buy sold 140 targets, buy yourself. That's exactly where I have him, I believe. Let me double check.

I have him at 140 targets. So I push. Still a pretty good chunk. It is a good chunk. But that's what gets him for me to wide receiver 21. I've got him just over 1,000 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Mike doesn't even need to speak. I can kind of feel his adoration and respect for Alan Robinson through the television screen. And I hear you, Mike. He's very good. I hear you, Mike. He's very good. Last one, David, my opportunity.

I still really like him for where he's being drafted. He's the RB 24 in basketball. The whole team has a bit of that offensive stink to it. He's going to have every opportunity on this offense. I do think he's talented. He's especially good in the passing game. If he has more opportunities there, which is something Matt Nagy has shown the ability to do historically, you know, he had an okay year if you look at this offense and say 27th.

You know, 25th and passing yards per game, very inefficient. Points per game, 29th. You know, I don't put that on the back of a rookie running back. I put that on the back of Mitch Trubisky, Matt Nagy's decision-making. Do they finish above 29th this year?

Yeah, I think they do. I think as a whole, the offense takes a step forward. Just that offensive line. They're not necessarily a good offense, but they're not going to be as bad as they were last year. I think we all project them to take a small step forward. And if a small step forward happens for a back who's pretty much guaranteed 250 rushing attempts, then, you know, that's a lot. That's a lot. If the touchdowns come, he's going to be good for fantasy and finish above that running back 24.

rank. You know, I think he's he's got that running back 15 look to him. Mike, quick prediction. Are we talking about Matt and Aggie's offense this time next year? No. Okay. Sorry, Matt. I wonder if Bears fans are happy. You said that or sad. I'll bet they're split. Yeah. They start the season against Detroit, the Giants, the Falcons, and the Colts.

Bears season gets started. Wow, those first three weeks are pretty good for whoever gets the start. Yeah. That is nice. Detroit, the Giants, the Falcons, phenomenal. Speaking of Detroit, they didn't have a great year. Three, twelve, and one last season. They were, it's funny how this is, you look at the one score games just in this division. I don't think we've broken that metric out in the other divisional breakdowns. And here's the tough luck team. You had the nine and one Packers.

the eight and eight bears, and now the three and eight Detroit Lions in one score games. The three, 12 and one record, you know, it betrays what I saw in the field. Matthew Stafford was very, very good last year. This was not a good defense. Yeah, for a half. And then you had to deal with David Blow and, you know, hard to have expectations for an offense with the backup quarterback, no matter who you are. So.

Passing yards per game, they still finished 10th in the league, despite the fact that he went out. Holy crap. That's insane. Yeah, he was having an outstanding year and then went out in week 10, and then it was the David Blowfest. Not a lot has changed on this team. They brought in DeAndre Swift in the second round. My number one rated rookie running back out of Georgia, a player that I think will have an instant impact. But.

Detroit running back impact has not meant much for fantasy for the past 20 years. No, I am well documented as a carry-on Johnson, truth or extraordinaire, deeply in love. How do you fall out of love? I'm just curious, like, if you were to fall out of love, how does that even happen? It happens. Have you ever fallen out of love? I think it happens swiftly.