NFC North Breakdown + Buzzkill Train, Happy Hearts - Fantasy Football Podcast

He is 100% locked in as a superstar should be drafted in the first round, phenomenal fantasy option going forward. Are there any disagreements here? Or can we just move on from me? Not from me. In games played, he was a 30% targeter guy. Yeah. There's nobody on earth that is having a question with whether Devante Adams is an elite fantasy court or wide receiver. Right. So we don't need to talk about him. The big question is Aaron Jones. Yes. He was phenomenal last year.

the running back two or three, depending on your scoring. He was a touchdown machine, super efficient. He, you know, was someone that was touted going into last year as if they would only give him the work, he'd be great. But now you have all the touchdown. The touchdowns are going to come down. Third and fantasy points per game, 14th in touches per game. So he did a little bit more with the opportunities given him than others were able to do. And over the course of his career,

You have 55% of his rushing touchdown that have come from six or more yards away. So he's been one of those players. Sequan's one of them, Kenyon Drake, Rahim Mostert. Those are the only three players that have higher rates than Aaron Jones. He can score outside of those goal line opportunities where we've seen Aaron Rogers be able to sneak the ball at times, where we've seen, you know, this is one of those things you bring up with whatever, Philip, Lindsay, Devon, Singletary.

players that you're like, oh man, they need to break off a long run or they're not going to get the chance. Jones has done it consistently, but it's more volatile the way he delivered this third in fantasy points per game number. A little bit, yeah, he was, he definitely was not consistent, but I will say, but he was weak winning. Yeah, he was definitely weak winning. He has the home run ability, so he can rip off a couple really long touchdowns, but.

His numbers inside of the five, as far as like attempts and success of turning those into touchdowns, is really not outlandish. So, you know, you have 17 carries from the five or in. He has 10 touchdowns in those carries. But, you know, guys like Zeke, 18 carries, 10 touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey, 20 carries, nine touchdowns. So what could be fluky is that.

He actually had that many attempts inside the five compared to these other guys when you look at just his overall volume and how much he's on the field. But his efficiency inside the five isn't this just absolute outlier of a number. So I'm still in on Aaron Jones. I'm not really concerned about A.J. Dylan. And I'm definitely not concerned about Jamal Williams coming in when they get those opportunities. The question for me would be,

Aaron Rogers. Like, does Aaron Rogers, can he return to his touchdown for him? Over the course of his career, he has a 6.0 career touchdown percentage. So every 6% of his attempts is a touchdown, which is very high. The last two years, though, 4.2, 4.6. They didn't really add weapons for him. I mean, besides Devin Funches, of course, but those numbers have been down for Aaron Rogers. And you saw the rise for.

for Aaron Jones in that area, does that switch back at all where? What is your confidence level? Because to me, the touchdowns are going to happen. It's just where do they go? Yeah, I mean, I think it switches back a little bit because he loves to go to Devante Adams in the red zone, and he didn't have that opportunity at times last year. That's one focus. I mean, Aaron Rogers, there's, you know, him, Patrick Mahomes, probably the top two quarterbacks that you have complete trust in throwing around the goal line on a regular basis.

So, yeah, I think that that, I wouldn't be counting on a lot of goal line opportunities for Aaron Jones as being kind of the backbone of his season. And to speak to the consistency, five games with less than seven points last year. That was the most among top 24 running backs. Top 24. Not like the most of the top five. This is like if you're the running back 24, you had fewer bust games than Aaron Jones. And they drafted.

A.J. Dillon in the second round. When you have 11 touchdowns inside the 10, which is what Aaron Jones had, and then you bring in a big bodied, you know, goal line, third and inches, A.J. Dillon, which you drafted the second round. I mean, we all know the touchdowns are coming down, but the opportunity does scare me. The consistency scares me. If the defense was worse.

I would be more in on Aaron Jones ironically because he is the mold of Alvin Camara. And I don't think that the Packers want to win game scoring and having the same offense that the Saints do. The offense of the Saints is let's just go for 50 points a game.

And LaFleur has, you know, last year he wanted to slow things down. And let me ask Mike a question. Mike has him the highest of the three of us at RB6. He said you're a believer in Aaron Jones. I think we all believe in Aaron Jones, the talent. It's more, you know, what are we going to expect from LaFleur on a week-to-week basis? 16 touchdowns last year. Where do you have him touchdown-wise? And I'll give you a second to find that. Where do you have him for this upcoming year?

Like you said, we all agree that it's coming down, but what is that actually equate to? Because last year it wasn't just, it was 16 on the ground. And then it was another, what, three receiving touchdown? Correct. Yeah. So that's astronomical. I have him regressing. I have it down to 10 rushing touchdowns, two through the air and a little bit more receiving work of, you know, I'm trying to account for those one score games.

kind of flip in the other direction. So just gave him a few more receptions, and that turned into a very high-ranking running back for me. By the way, I'm going to throw this out there because the resident Packer fan of our studio is most certainly Al Borland. And he's nodding. And I just want to throw the stat out there. Since you became a producer on the show, Al, Aaron Rogers is, he's ranked 48th in completion percentage. Oh, man. I don't know. Are you on the mic today, Al? I am.

So is this a direct correlation? I mean, we do a lot of statistical analysis here. This seems pretty cut and dry. This is on you. It's on me. Okay. Well, don't worry. You've got a new quarterback in tow. Oh, no. And I'll bet you love him. Boo. Boo. All right. I don't think that there are a lot of huge question marks on this roster outside of the ones we discuss. I think we can move forward.

Jamal Williams will probably still have a role in the offense to occasionally disrupt your Aaron Jones. Yeah, but he himself is not draftable. Who's the wide receiver two? It's Funches. It's Lazzard. It's Lazzard. Okay. I mean, it's irrelevant. It almost sounded like you were just, you were like, yeah, I agree now. No, no, I don't. I think it is Funchest. I think Funches will be better than Lazzard. But my, my.

My answer is truly, I think it's irrelevant. In the past, Aaron Rogers, wide receiver two has been a phenomenal value in fantasy, even his wide receiver three times. Those days are gone. It's not that team anymore. It's not that coach. It's not that Aaron Rogers. And so I'm avoiding Funches or Lazard. I don't really care. 13 and 3 becomes what this year? 10. 10 wins? Yeah, I think there'll be a 10 win team.

Speaking of 10 win teams, the Minnesota Vikings went 10 and 6 last year. That's who we're talking about. Now they were sixth in the NFL and rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns. It was the Delvin Cook show. This is not the same Minnesota Vikings defense of years past. And it won't be even more so in 2020. More of those mainstays are now gone.

Mike Zimmer's getting an extension, multi-year extension. Gary Kubiak is now the offensive coordinator, replacing Kevin Safansky, who's now the head coach for Cleveland. Got a mind-blowing stat on Mike Zimmer that I'm going to throw out there with no fantasy relevance or purpose whatsoever. Well, it's to blow minds. This is shocking. Since he's coming to Minnesota, the Vikings are 1, 17, and 1.

outdoors against the team with a winning record. Ooh. They're like a year to year, they're a winning football team. Yeah, they win the majority of their games that are at home. It's 5% of your games. That's crazy. That's just shocking. But, all right, let's talk about the fantasy outlook for this, for this roster heading into 2020. Kirk Cousins being drafted as the 22nd quarterback off the board.

I get it. The kind of knee-jerk reaction to Kirk Cousins is already kind of a melancholy feel about Kirk Cousins, low passing volume, and then you just lose Defund Diggs. And that's just kind of the quick reaction, right? You take somebody that you kind of didn't love fantasy-wise and you take away their arguably best weapon, certainly best big play weapon. Spon Diggs last year consistently, you know, those deep touchdowns.

So where are we with Kirk Cudson? They add Justin Jefferson, a first round wide receiver, a player that we all really like, or at least I like. No, we all like. We like the receiver. Yes, yes. Here's the question is the offense last year, how much of that offense was actually Stefansky and how much of that offense is Mike Zimmer? Because that's, that is everything. Jason, you're just.

Making a funny face? Yeah, I mean, Mike Zimmer's, you know, he's the head coach who's going to dictate whether he wants to run more or pass more. But he's a defensive coach. The offense was completely, you know, I think that it was Stefansky. However, Kubiak was there. And I think it was more Stefansky and Kubiak. And now it's Kubiak. Sure. What I mean by that is, like, you had.

A couple years ago, that's when you had a DiPhilippo was the guy. Zimmer forced the issue at the back half of that year. And Zimmer said, screw this crap, we aren't throwing the ball this much. This isn't how I win a football game. So that's the big question to me is, what offense are we going to see? Will it still be this run heavy? And then that hurts Kirk Cousins a lot, who he's a good quarterback. He's very efficient, but he'll have the weeks, but he's more of a streaming.

option. Meanwhile, you have rookie Justin Jefferson who played 81% of the time in the slot in college. And now you're, if that's what I'm saying, if this is Stefanski's offense where they just, they didn't use a slot wide receiver that much, that seems like an interesting fit of, are you that confident that Justin Jefferson can jump from a full-time slot wide receiver to an outside wide receiver in the NFL? Like that's, to me, is a really big.

stretch. That's why of all of the rookies that are coming in with great opportunity ahead of them, Jalen Rager and Jerry Judy and Justin Jefferson, he is the lowest to me because he has an extra transition to make as a player. But I did like him, obviously, in college. He was, you know, dominant for LSU. But that's, you know, I don't want to bank fantasy on all of those variables, especially in this shortened season. Now,

on the other side, outside is going to be Adam Thielen, who I am the highest on of this group. I wouldn't, this is not a foregone conclusion in my mind at all that Justin Jefferson won't be utilized the way he's used in college and used in the slot. I mean, the Vikings have come out and talked about using him in that capacity. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't throw that away. I like Justin Jefferson to be a surprise value in fantasy draft. So we don't, we don't agree there. The, you know, the 2019 Vikings used three wide receivers.

only 22% of the snaps, which was by far the lowest in the NFL. And that's usually what you're going to need to get that guy in the slot. Yeah. I mean, the slots to get a guy into it. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's, that's my point. So they're going to need to change their offense completely if they're going to have Justin Jefferson have enough slot, you know, role to do what he did in college.

This is a team that went from 606 passing attempts down to 44 last year. The offense goes through Delvin Cook. What is your temperature check with Dalvin Cook right now in late July? Jason, you've somehow drafted him in like every mock. It is true, and I have been able to get Alexander Madison in each one as well. And those aren't just moks where it's a computer. I just did one.

for an industry mock and with all industry experts and I was able to double up. So I'm actually okay with Dalvin Cook if he falls to the back of the first round, but you have to get Alexander Madison, even if it means to me taking him in the seventh. Mike? Yeah, I think I'm, I think I'm still good taking him there right now. We're going to know very soon because all the, the real.