AFC East Breakdown + Hard Knocks Fantasy Heroes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/13

We are going through one of the best divisions, nay, the best division in football, the AFC East. We're talking about the hard-knocked hero himself, Aaron Rogers. We've got some great debate on today's show. Make sure you leave a comment, subscribe, and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday.

July 13th, the fantasy footballers podcast. Mike the Fantasy Hitman Wright is here. Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. Big show today. Excited to be with you. Mike. How are you doing? I'm doing fantastic. Yeah. We are on to the AFC East, which is a very, very fun division. It's a ferocious division. Yes. We found out that hard knocks will be heading to the AFC East. They will. This morning. Bring your ayahuasca. Bring your ayahuasca. B-Y-O-A. Okay. Took me a second. Jason, how are you doing? I'm doing very well. I just got out of a dark room. What were you doing in a dark room? Oh, just like Aaron Rogers. You got the ayahuasca. You got the complete. Now, are you just talking about your bedroom from last night? Yeah, but like.

Blackout curtains, man. It's crazy. We're all in the black shirts today. That's right. I did notice that. Well, that's the best to absorb the Arizona sun. Yes. That's really smart. Sometimes you got a challenge. You got to, you got to look at the sun and say, I am, I'm tougher than you. We used to play. We used to play a lot. of pickleball outdoors. Now we are fortunate enough that we play indoors during the summer. Yeah, we're soft now. We're soft. I said this the other day to somebody. They're like, they were playing outside and I'm like, you're a maniac. And then I was like, I realized I have just become soft little baby boys and pale because we were getting tans along with the melanoma. But we used to play a lot of pickleball outdoors and like wearing a black pickleball shirt very bad decision.

And yet Al Borland and Jason. Oh, yeah. Would not play pickleball out there with light color on. Very committed. I'm not into having a wet t-shirt contest out there, boys. That black shirt's necessary. Oh, but you guys like maybe almost died a few times. Yeah, but so what, you know? Every man dies. Not every man truly lives. Very slimming. But welcome in everybody. AFC East breakdown on the show today. We have a best ball breakdown as well. Some decent NFL news to talk about, which we had been kind of pining for that for a while. We hadn't had any big stories. We got stuff to discuss and break down and look at the implications. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at Ultimate DraftKit.com. If you're new, this is the secret weapon for your draft. So you can learn about everything that's a part of it. We've been building on it.

for years. So if you think back to the early days of the Ultimate Draft Kit, it's probably three, four times as robust and useful and iterated on and improved upon. And so that is, that's something you can avail yourself of at Ultimate DraftKit.com. We have a new Dynasty podcast episode. Dynasty-wide receivers that released yesterday. You can search for the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. How'd that go, Jay? It was very, very good. We got into kind of the second-tier wide receivers who we love, who we hate, some veterans. I think we had a really great discussion on what to do with kind of veteran-wide receivers. Very valuable. I only overheard one part of the recording, Mike. And it was Jason disparaging...

Joshua Dobbs again. Are you Downs? Sorry. What did I say? Josh Dobbs. Oh, yeah. That's why you both think of me very confused. I was who that human is. Nope, nope. But yes, Josh Downs. Yeah. Dobbs was on Steelers, right? I remember the quarterback was. Yes. I was speaking of the wide receiver, the rookie. I've messed this up. I recognize it. Yeah, I did slander Josh Downs. It's been a while since I had an opportunity. And really, We still haven't seen him play. I didn't get, I don't get much opportunity to slander him anymore since he did not get drafted highly. Correct. So you have your first stage one victory lap. Right. The NFL. I'm on lap two right now. Are you? Yeah. Oh, yeah. How many laps can you make it through? Four. That's, that's when I quit. Okay. What else is going on? Do I have anything else here. We do not need to talk about Joshua Dobbs for what it's worth. Yeah. Oh, wait.

He started the couple games for the Titans. He did. He played for the Steelers for a while. And then last year had a chance after Malik Willis got his chance. Yes. And it was all coming back to me now. It was evident that off the street, Josh Dobbs was the better option for them. Hey, that's tough. Brooksie, anything else we got going on over there in Ducers Alley? It's all filled up over there. No more Jay Gris. Happy to have my guys back. Yeah. Nothing else going on. Rapscallion in the building as well. Okay, let's get it going. News and notes from around the league. The big news that we've been waiting for, Saints, well, part of it. Saints running back, Alvin Camara, pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge connected to his alleged participation in a fight that occurred in Las Vegas in 2022. So we've heard tale of this incident for a long time now.

He is going to do community service. It was reduced. It's not a felony. It's a misdemeanor. And he's going to pay $100,000 to the victim for medical bills. This sets the stage for any potential NFL consequences, which we don't know if they're going to take place or not. I mean, I think we all have different guesses, but we've never seen this exact situation before. Yeah, this is a new. crime that the NFL will deal with. But the NFL has come out and said now that this has been resolved, they will look into this and investigate my expectation right now when I'm just statting players out and thinking about what I believe will happen because at this point in time, that's what you've got to do. You've got to make that guess if you're drafting on underdog or doing stuff. You've got to make your educated decisions. And I believe it'll be a two game suspension. Yeah, I'm at one to two.

I think it'll be one to two. Mike, I think, was saying he leans more, the higher side. I think it could be, I think it could be up to four. Two wouldn't surprise me, but there's, there, like, the video is, there's a video out, the video, it's very difficult to tell what's going on in it, but we know that the NFL does not like when you make a, when you make the news for bad PR, Roger Goodell and company often. come down on it now. So I'm confident he will get a suspension. But anywhere from two or more games, that's TBD. Okay. Yeah, I think we'll find out soon. Colts owner, Jim Urstay, said Jonathan Taylor, is, quote, healed up ahead of training camp. He had an arthroscopic debridement, which is one of the things I try to avoid to clean up the ankle.

So, you know, that's debridement. That's like, you know, getting rid of little bone fragments and stuff like that. Wouldn't that be right? That doesn't sound good. I don't know. I'm looking at Al. Al looks like a guy knows what debridement is. I had that procedure done in there. Yes. Is that how you would refer to it? I think it's called a debreedment. Oh, debrisment. Yeah. Debridement is when you get divorced. Yes. Oh, yeah. You're debriding. You're debriding. Yeah. Here all night. It is. Kind of a storyline in the sense that you got to remember that he's still recovering. I know he said he's all healed up ahead of training camp, but he wasn't a part of any of the other camps, the OTAs, all that. He wasn't ready yet. So it's, it's something to monitor. I mean, hopefully just it's a nothing, you know, training camp starts. He's a full go, but maybe maybe not. Some news on Isaiah Pacheco. See if those fancy feet can get going. He may not be clear for the start of training camp.

played through a fracture in his thumb and a torn labrum in his shoulder, underwent surgery. You know, it doesn't really concern me at all because it's not his legs. I mean, a shoulder, that's not the greatest for a running back who has to hit people with his shoulder. It does. I'm not that concerned. Let me put it that way. I don't want to say you shouldn't pay attention to it. I'm just saying the broken bone and the thumb. Look, he played through these injuries. Right. So in that respect, you know, I'm just happy it's upper body for this running back. Yeah, I still, I know I got a little bit of grief. This was, wow, month, two months ago when I brought up Clyde Edwards-Alaher's name as one of my favorite last round picks in Underdog. I will never give grief for that, Jason. I must hold on to any shred of hope.

Oh, I'm happy. I can give you grief now. You don't have to just have it then. It's not changing. But, you know, this is one of those things where if he's not there for the start of training camp, Clyde Edwards Aller is not going away. He's not going to be uninvolved. And it's a good offense. So, Derek McKinnon. Yeah, I mean, McKinnon will be involved as well. It's a three back rotation until it's a two back rotation when one of them gets injured. And then Monday at 4 p.m. Eastern deadline for franchise tag players to sign a long-term deal. Our latest report from ESPN saying Saquan and the Giants are at a stalemate. The deadlines Monday for a long-term deal. The situation is basically if they don't reach that deal, it's going to force Saquan to make a decision about holding out. And it will be a scary journey because he's probably both Josh Jacobs and Saquan Barkley.

most likely will not have a deal done. And so their only option is to sit out or sign their franchise tag. And they will probably sign their franchise tag as late as humanly possible, miss all of training camp. And it will be very tough to draft those players when you still have a fear of them holding out. What are they holding out for at that point? If you can't. To not practice. Yeah, no, no, no. I understand that. But like I'm talking about anything that would actually impact our, I mean, both those guys are the, they don't have to. play it down. They don't even have to smell the grass on the training field. They will start week one. Oh, yeah. Both of them. So my point is, is like, what does holding out do for them if they're going to play week one other than just missing some practice? Like, they can't. Okay. I mean, most people hold out because they want a contract. Most people hold out because they want to accomplish something. If the team cannot give them anything, that's my point. Well, the fear of the holdout at that point.

is not missing training camp. It's that they will sit out the season a la Levy on Bell. But they're going to sacrifice all the franchise tag money that entire year. Yeah. I mean, that's what Lev Bell did. And that was really dumb. It was super dumb. And he got a big contract afterwards from the Jets. And if you really did the math, he just lost money on even including the big contract. My point is that is it really one of those things that's all or nothing for this season? Because if you can't do anything to his contract. Why would he come back in game two? Why would he come back in game four? Oh, no. Why would he come back in game six? No, it's all or nothing, 100%. And what is going to be is no training camp and then sign. So you're in that regard, are you zero percent worried about it as a draft pick for both those players? Until it's signed, I'll have that one percent worry that he misses the whole season. Anything to add, Mike? I just, I think we have data.

I don't have anything in front of me, Kyle, maybe you have something behind the scenes. But just when a player kind of skips the conditioning, that acclamation period of training camp, I think their injury rate is a bit higher. So they're already a risky position for injury and draft costs. And if they're not in football shape come week one, I don't know. I think your antenna needs to be up. We all want it buttoned up. That would be nice to just know what you're getting higher draft capital picks like that. You don't want anything. You know, Joe Mixing, Alvin Camara, and once we find this out, like the question marks in the air do not make you feel good about it, which is why some of their average draft positions are lower. All right, let's get into it. Let's get divisional. All right. Let's have some fun. We're talking AFC East, going through the changes from 2022 to 23.

How the offenses may function. Kind of our takes on win totals. We'll do what we've done on all of these divisional breakdowns. We'll give you our predictions for first, second, third, and fourth in the division. Last year, Buffalo, 13 and 3. So good. Miami was 9 and 8. The Patriots were 8 9 and the New York Jets were 7 and 10. So this was a very, a pretty good division last year, but the bills owned it. number two in points per game, number two defense and points allowed. You know, they are one of those, you know, sometimes you get concerned about teams when their defense is too good. But Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, that wasn't the case. You know, they were a very, you know, they won almost all their games. They had a huge point differential, and yet those two players were still highly producing fantasy commodities.

Yeah, I mean, you know, you look at the Eagles last year as well. They had a great defense and sometimes it capped. You know, you'd be at halftime and you'd think, oh, I'm going to score a cajillion fantasy points and they don't get that great second half. But you just want teams that are dominating. If they're up, that means they scored touchdowns. That means fantasy points came. And the bills were unbelievable last year. They were 10 points away, under 10 points away from having an undefeated season. You know, they had three losses, all three by three or fewer points. And they just.

kicked butt. And it's funny because their wind totals come down. I'm sure some of that has to do with Aaron Rogers showing up in the division. Miami being healthy. Exactly. Tua being there. And there is a weird air of pessimism around the bills, at least I've seen in media, where it's like they feel like the window is starting to shut. I don't see that. I don't, you know, obviously Diggs is getting older. If we're talking dynasty leagues, maybe you start getting worried, start getting out of that. But their offense should just be full steam ahead this year. I don't see any reason why it should take a step back. Yeah, I mean, the win total, it goes from 11 and a half going into last year to 10 and a half this year, like you said. The offseason hijinks or whatever you want to call it from Stefan Diggs didn't help that.

I guess feeling about the season. They also had a very, very disappointing exit in the playoffs. You know, this was last year was supposed to be their year. And it just didn't transpire that way. But yeah, the core pieces, Josh Allen, he's going to be great. Stefan Diggs is going to be great. Opportunities, they're there for Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook. So we'll talk about some of those guys, Sean McDermott going into year seven somehow. Wow, that's, man, what? And last three years, 13 wins, 11 wins, 13 wins. And so, you know, last year coming into the season, there was the change of offensive coordinator. Didn't matter, right? Ken Dorsey goes into year two now, and they've added Damian Harris at running back, Latavius Murray at running back to fill out that room. They've added Deonté Hardy and Trent Sherfield, a wide receiver.

And they lost Jameson Crowder, Isaiah McKinsey and Cole Beasley as well, right? I mean, Cole Beasley is gone. Yes. Yeah, they basically lost some slot players, added some slot players. And then Dalton Kincaid is the real difference in the offense. A first round, a first round tight end. Yeah, he's an excellent pass catching tight end. Great ball skills, great athleticism. He wasn't able to participate in the combine. But the hype on Dalton Kincaid is. gigantic if you watch the draft videos of this room they you know they traded up to get him they hopped over the cowboys they wanted him bad and they felt like he could really help this offense they keep calling him the tight end like is that funny to you guys at all when we're watching a lot of these draft videos they're not even calling these kids by their neighbors like ah we're hoping that the tight end falls you don't what are we doing here but is that in the draft video yeah the tight end falls to it yeah

I don't know. Well, you could argue that that's extra hype on Dalton Kincaid because they're just saying the tight end and they all knew who they were talking about. They weren't talking about Michael Meyer. They were talking about Dalton Kincaid, the tight end. It's worth saying, and I don't know if we've talked about it enough because there's been all the traditional hype around Dalton Kincaid. He goes to a great offense. We just talked about the points per game. And then you look at his fantasy potential, which for some, that excitement's overblown. Historical numbers tell us that rookie tight ends. It's hard to make an impact. I get all that. But have we talked too little about the impact he might have on Josh Allen? Because a weapon like that doesn't have to be fantasy gold himself to turn Josh Allen into a...

even a more consistent producer at that position, more of a guarantee if you go in the second round on Josh Allen. Yeah, you get around the goal line, or I would say more the red zone, and all of a sudden you have another legitimate option to throw a touchdown to that stresses the defense and that will add more passing touchdowns to Josh Allen. He's my quarterback one right now as far as how the stats lie. I think he's got the highest potential. I just love. Jalen hurts so much. I find myself drafting him over him. But my stats have Josh Allen as the number one. And I want to bring up Gabe Davis real quick because to me, I believe he is the quintessential post-type sleeper. The burns were real, super disappointing season. He was drafted and touted. He was a my guy for me last year. And it was a failure. He was too inconsistent. Had a couple big weeks.

but for the most part was a failure. But I think he was a failure predominantly because of the expectations and the hopes. Yeah, it finished as the wide receiver 27. Yeah, he missed two games, had a high ankle sprain in week two, played through it, and was the wide receiver 27. So he's not worthless. And he only caught 52% of his Josh Allen targets. That's a number that I feel like should go north of that. And so. He is unwanted in drafts. I believe he's going to be a really good value this year because there's not a lot of, if you just look at the situation, you say, okay, the wide receiver two for one of, if not the best offense in the league, who's going to get 100 targets. That's just a great opportunity. Now, if you think Gabe Davis just flat out sucks and can't get the job done, then pass on him. That's the hard part is because the number, like if he catches 50, what do you say, 52% of the passes? Right.

That could very well be on him. I mean, Stefan Diggs cut 71%. I don't think Josh Allen was throwing, you know, knuckle balls to Gabe Davis, maybe higher, you know, lower probability catches. But we don't know what the team's trust is. Is this going to be an offense where they made that decision? And then they said, look, he's going to be a lot of James Cook in the passing game. It's going to be Dalton Kincaid and 12 personnel with Dawson Knox. That's where the gamble is. And it is a gamble on Gabe Davis, but he should be on the field a ton.

And then at that point, it's about confidence for your quarterback. You're in a great offense. I do think there's opportunity there if you're being drafted in the ninth round. There's opportunity. Be willing to cut bait if it's the same old Gabe Davis. But the two guys I wanted to highlight of the, because that's the question for Gabe Davis. Is Gabe Davis good? And I don't know that we. Well, he could be a three, too. I don't know that we have the answer yet. And like, Koleo Shakir is, he's an interesting. slot wide receiver. And Deonté Hardy is, this dude is, he is a burner. Like, Hardy won't be really, he'll be interesting like every once in a while for a DFS play. But for a, when you were talking about Dalton Kincaid improving things for Josh Allen, there's going to be three to five times that Hardy hits with a, with like a 40. Yeah, it's going to be a Hardy party when he's hitting like a 40 plus yard.

touchdown. And that'll be his only catch of the day. Yeah, he's a lot like Jalen Guyton in Los Angeles. But he's just he will certainly help the offense. And I think that it will be interesting to watch camp for these wide receiver reports of is the team back in support of Gabe Davis? Or do you start hearing more hype trained stuff about these other two wide receivers? If that's what we're hearing, then then Gabe Davis is probably. Just not as good as we hope he is. Let's, before we move on, let's talk about the running back position. James Cook right now being drafted in the eighth round of fantasy drafts. He averaged 2.69 yards before contact. That was number three among all running backs. But he only got 12 touches or more one time last year. So there's an argument to be made we just didn't get to see James Cook unleashed in any capacity. Because of that, to me, there's an opportunity there, right? Like if they were to give him more work.

We've moved on from Devon Singletary, plays on a great team. Seems like there's an opportunity. At the same time, Damien Harris was at it and Latavius Murray. And I mention both because Murray just kind of gets it done and endears coaches to him, it seems. And so he ends up getting a little bit more work than we're comfortable with. Maybe he hurts Damien Harris a little bit more as a potential sleeper. But what do you expect out of this room that has generally been? infrequently relied upon for fantasy football. I don't think there's enough fantasy points to go around for the running backs, generally speaking. And, I mean, it would be surprising to me if James Cook were unleashed. If we're talking about just volume, he's not a big guy, you know, maybe around the 190 pound mark or so. Damien Harris is a good running back. If anyone's going to be the guy there at the goal line,

I mean, it's Josh Allen, but I'm saying if it's going to be a running back, it'll be Damien Harris. It's just how much passing work does James Cook get? I don't think either of them is really desirable as a later round running back. But there is ambiguity, and in ambiguity at a running back position, that's sometimes where gold comes from. For me, I'm putting my chips on the Damien Harris side of things, just in case we see a seven-plus rushing touchdown season. When he had 13 opportunities, two times and 20 opportunities, those were his three highest games. Fantasy finishes for Cook and those were 25, 15, and 10 in those games, averaging 7.8 a carry, 4.6 a carry and 9 a carry. So we'll see how often they're willing to get him involved. If you watch the games, what I loved about James Cook is that he has the, I don't even know how to describe it. I don't know if somebody has an idea for it, but certain running backs, they know where to go after the ball is snapped.

They find empty space. There's a good vision. The turnaround zone, whatever you want to call that. James Cook was dominant in that. And that's one of the reasons they drafted him. Now, they didn't get to use him that way very often because I think he started his career with a fumble on his first touch and they had other weapons involved. But just keep an eye on that situation. Because I think, where's he going right now? Eighth round. I think he's a fine. It's probably fair price. I think it's a fair price and a fine shot to take. If I was to make my bet, I'm going to make it on the James Cook side. I realize he has lower odds of being the goal line guy, but I don't think if there's gold to be mined in these hills, it's not going to come from just a goal line opportunity. It's going to come from being an explosive athlete in a great offense who has enough opportunity to break off big run after big run, chunk plays. And James Cook has that. He showed that last year. And if you look at how he started the season,

5% snaps, 26% snaps, 12, 3, 18, 14. Like, he wasn't really involved. Later in the season, he started getting up more around like the 40% and had a couple big games. I think we're hoping here that he could be a 55, 60% snap player. And if that happens, oh, yeah. Yeah, I don't know. You threw the 60 in there and you could have just said, you could have left it and I would have. Well, I wasn't thinking about the drops, but I do think I would, I would place my. chips on the James Dalvin Cook side. He's 4-4-2. Yes, 4-4-2. So he's pretty fast, dude. All right, quick break back with the Dolphins. All right, let's talk about Miami. Last year, the projected win total was nine. They won nine games. This year is nine and a half. They were six and five and one score games. Which they can't do. Thank you, Mike. Just here for the mathematical.