AFC South Breakdown + HYPE Train!

But it's still Delaney Walker, and I think he still has juice left and is still the number one or at worst, the number two target on the team. My comparison for Delaney Walker yesterday was to a club sandwich. Which is perfect. Because it's never the best thing on the menu, but it always gets the job done. He's the new Jason Wittin of the NFL. It's really, really hard to mess up a club sandwich. Yeah. I could do it.

The only other guy I would mention here as a sleeper, deeper league's best ball pick, Tewan Taylor is a good wide receiver. And I think that the system that's going to be implemented here is going to see a lot more three wide receiver sets than they did last season. Matthews isn't right. And if Matthews isn't right, you know, I think Tewan Taylor is one of those names, wide receiver. Deep league sleeper. Yes, a deep league sleeper where if you're really wanted to dig deep, he's someone that you might not be aware of yet.

who could pop this season. Yeah, I like that. Texans. Let's talk about the Texans. Last year we got to observe the magic. That was Deshaun Watson to D'Andre Hopkins. The hype is real for these two heading into 2018. And this is a team that could quickly turn around that 4-12 record with the return of their quarterback. And J.J. Watt.

And JJ Watt and company. It was more than JJ that was hurt last year. Merciless was hurt as well. So let's talk about it. This offense last year, it's hard to kind of take end of your stats and appropriate it the same way it's difficult to do that with Green Bay and your expectation for this year. But Deshaun Watson, I think the message we're sending to fantasy owners is have a reasonable expectation for Deshaun Watson. I think he's a good quarterback. I think he's a good NFL quarterback.

I think he had unsustainable touchdown efficiency last year, and it's going to be an impossibility for that to repeat over the course of his career. But I still think you're going to get games that are weak-winning league defining games from Deshaun Watson. He's the second quarterback off the board. And that's the biggest. Only Aaron Rogers being drafted ahead of him at the position, meaning a high draft capital investment into Deshaun Watson, a high investment into

a position that is easily replaceable in most leagues. That's my problem with Watson. If he was going off the board, say right around where Cam Newton is going, then I would say, okay, I generally still wait even longer on quarterback, but if people are wanting to go in on Watson at that value, I'm not going to blame you.

Or say you're making a terrible move by doing it. I said this early in the offseason, but we have so many people coming in August for the first time, and they might not have heard this. I have Deshaun Watson as my number four quarterback. That's really, really good. And so I am not anti-Dishon Watson.

But Deshawn Watson will 100% be a terrible draft pick in fantasy football this season because of where you're drafting him. He is being drafted right now at his ceiling. He's being drafted right now to where if he comes in and has that Aaron Rogers year, then it won't be a problem. But you're still not going to actually be getting value at that point for him being the second quarterback taken off the board. And what he did was completely unsustainable, his touchdown rate.

he's going to be fine because he's going to run the ball and he'll have that baseline. We should give him credit for that too, like unsustainable but absolutely incredible, like an amazing player. Well, that's why I led with the fact that he's my number four quarterback. I would love to have Deshawn Watson on my team. But give me the odds that he is better than Cam Newton fantasy-wise. I mean, how would you even handicap that with the value difference? Yeah, I would say at the end of the year, 70% chance Cam has a better season than Deshaun. 70%? Yeah, I've got Cam as my number three quarterback. There you go.

Value. It's all about value. And when you look at the offensive line, we know how atrocious that the Seahawks were, right? I believe they gave up pressure on the quarterback, 25% of plays, which was far and away the worst in the league. The second worst was Houston. So that's going to be something that, yes, Dershom Watson, just like Russell Wilson, has the agility and ability to get out of the pocket and make plays with his legs and get himself time. Still not something I want my quarterback to have to do.

is, you know, last season they ended up 32nd in the league by PFF's ranking. This season going into 2018, they're still ranked 32nd in the league. This is a problem. Yeah. And it's a problem also for relying on anybody in the running game because Deontza, Deontza Foreman is hurt. Alvar Blue is still there. And Lamar Miller is still slow. Lamar Miller is a tremendous value in fantasy football right now. Sorry.

Not sorry. I've had to move on from my offseason early hopes on Deontza Foreman. Lamar Miller is currently going as the 22nd running back. He has the starting running back for the Texans as of right now. His quarterback should be healthy. We know that when a quarterback is very mobile, it is very positive for a running back. And when Deshawn Watson was on his hot streak,

Lamar Miller was a running back one for fantasy. It's hard to remember that. He's being drafted in the back of the fourth round. And if you're going, if you're going to start your draft with a couple wide receivers, it's going to feel gross. It's not going to feel safe. But you should pick up Lamar Miller. He is only 26 years old. And even though he, you know,

He feels like he's 32 watching last year. Runs like a 36. But he's also not 26. So that's really the big. Is he not? No, he's not. Uh-oh. Do we have a J-H-E aging situation? He's 27 years old. Hold on. Hold on. I was off one. I apologize. Yeah. I was just saying the biggest thing about it. My point is he's not a 30-year-old running back that's hit that age gap where it's like, look, he could just be done.

27 is still in that age for a running back where you're at the beginning of the downturn, but you're still a valuable fantasy asset. He's just had those declining numbers for several years in a row. He's been in the league. This will be his seventh full season. He's got about 1,200 carries under his belt, but the last few years, he went from 5.1 to 4.5 to 4.0 to 3.7 declining yards per carry.

Ouch. Okay, let's move on. What? Let's go back. Texans. We haven't even talked about the wide receivers or the tight end position. So let's make the tight end very fast. Stephen Anderson had some relevance, had some big games this past year, and C.J. Fedorowitz, the Mad Hatter, the tight end for the Texans list last year. He has had to retire from concussions. Stephen Anderson, a hyper athletic, not sure he has a monstrous role.

Is he worth flying? He's worth a dynasty pickup for sure. So I think we don't have to talk about DeAndre Hopkins very long on this segment. He's a locked and loaded top five wide receiver. I see some target regression because it was absolutely ridiculous. He had commanded a 33% target share, which is... That's outlandish. That's number one. And number two, according to my stats, was AJ Green at 28%.

There's a 5% difference between 1 and 2. It can't happen. But Will Fuller is going in the middle of fantasy drafts. He was the reason that Deshaun Watson had such an unsustainable touchdown rate. How do you guys feel about Will Fuller? Are you in for the price? What's the current round?

So right now, Will Fuller is going at the back of the sixth round. Give me some names around Will Fuller. Okay, so here's the PPR average opposition. This is the PPR. So these are wide receivers you would be making the choice between for Will Fuller. Will Fuller, Manny Sanders, Emmanuel Sanders from the Denver Broncos. Emmanuel Sanders. Yep. Pierre Garcone. I'll take Will Fuller. Randall Cobb. I'll take Fuller. And Jameson.

Crowder. I would take Fuller. Okay. So that's the guys at the back. That's the easier decision. Uh-huh. Now slightly in front of Fuller, who you would have to take Fuller over these guys. Sammy Watkins. Yeah, I'll take Sammy. Mm-hmm. Julian Edelman suspended for four games. I'll still take Julian. I'll take Fuller. Ooh. I just don't like rostering guys that are suspended for four games. I get it. And we know Jason's answer, so we'll throw this over to Jason. Or we know Andy's answer. Michael Crabtree.

Or Will Fuller? My answer, by the way, is Will Fuller. Yes, I am aware. I'm letting the people know. My answer there, you know, it really would be a roster construction. If I felt like I needed volume, I would go Crabtree. But if I had some quality-wide receivers already on my roster, which probably by the sixth round I do, then I'm probably going to lean Fuller there for the upside play. We'd all take Juju over Will Fuller? Yes. I certainly would. All right.

Mike, I don't want to move on. Now you have my permission to move. Colts. That was a frightening. I should have to cover my mouth, though. Yeah, thank you. The Colts, 4 and 12 last year, this was a bad, bad offense. If you watched the Colts last year, if you had T.Y. Hilden, if you had a running back, here's what you realized. They were never on the field.

They really weren't. They couldn't convert first downs, third worst in the NFL. Jack Doyle was all right. In terms of converting first downs, they scored 15.8 points per game. Not very good. This was an offense missing a quarterback. That's what it was. You know, bears, browns, giants, colts, dolphins, those were your bottom defenses last year. They barely threw the ball, third lowest.

total pass attempts in the league. And so you've got a couple boom games from Tyby Hilton because this talent could not be contained a couple of times. We need Andrew Luck to come back and we need to figure out where the ancillary value is on this roster from a fantasy construction standpoint. The head coach, Chuck Pugano is gone. They've moved on. Frank Reich is there. Dante Moncrief. They've moved on. Frank Gore. They've moved on. So there is going to be newfound value in Indianapolis, especially with the potential return of Andrew Luck.

They're all signs right now if you want an update. If you haven't been listening or following Andrew Luck right now, he's supposed to be healthy. There's no restrictions on him in the preseason. They're going to take it easy. They're going to keep him in his program. But I think at this point, are we all confident that Andrew Luck is going to start week one for the Indianapolis Colts? Yes. Yeah, even even.

me who's been the biggest hesitator. I am confident what he's been doing and the fact that they're saying he's playing preseason says that he should be good to go. And that's huge for Hilton. I'm not a big fan of the ancillary pieces. I probably won't take Doyle. I won't take Ebron. I won't take Ryan Grant. But for me, it's T.Y. Hilton.

Last time he played with Andrew Luck, he led the league in receiving yards. Yeah, I mean, people need to remember that. They have a great. And the thing is, is Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, if luck is healthy this season, which we just established, we believe it will happen, then they will be a value on draft day. Like when your draft comes around, they're not going to get all the way back up to the value they had two years ago. Are you talking about Hilton?

Yeah, I mean, Hilton was, when he was drafted, just remember this, when he was drafted before last season, he was a top 10 wide receiver draft pick. Sure. And where is he right now? Like he is 16. He is very close to that. I'll pull up the wide receivers as well. But here's the deal going at the top of the third. I missed that take. Did you say you don't like the value of T.Y. Hilton? I'm saying that I think the value of T.Y. Hilton will be good this year because I doubt that it would get back to where it was the last time we saw. Oh.

Well, unfortunately for you, he is the 10th wide receiver off the board. Here are guys going behind T.Y. Hilton. Wow. According to Fantasy Football calculator. Adam Thielen. Oh, give me a break. Thielen. Stefan Diggs. I would take Hilton over Diggs. Doug Baldwin. Hilton. Hilton right now because... Yeah, because of the health. Larry Fitzgerald. Depends what you need. Okay. Tyreek Hill. Hilton.

Yeah, I'd take Hilton there too. So Hilton is not going to be a great value, but it's where he should be going. He was still fourth in the league in yards per reception. He still did all the T.Y. Hilton things last year. You just couldn't get him the ball more consistently. Let me run you through T.Y. Hilton's game logs for fantasy points, okay? We know. We know. Okay. But there's a difference between the.