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Main show · August 7, 2018

AFC South Breakdown + HYPE Train!

RSSAug 7, 2018 · transcript indexed
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AFC South Breakdown + HYPE Train!

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Inside the episode

146 passages
27:22 ↗

Offensive line last year, and they've solidified that with the best offensive guard in the game, arguably. Now they have, in theory, an easy schedule this year coming up. They have the number one strength of schedule against the pass. This is a team that should be winning, and their formula is clear, defense and running the ball. Those are reasons. I mean, that whole package, along with the amount of joy that people get in making fun of Blake the Snake.

27:51 ↗

Are you waiting for it? I'm so sorry. I got a snake, man. You know, Blake Bortles has always, you know, come under, come under fire for not being a good quarterback. But for fantasy, he's being completely overlooked right now to ridiculous degrees. Wow, that's a, that's not, we haven't talked about him.

28:11 ↗

That's what I want to bring up. We have not brought them up. Now, is that because they throw the ball the least in the league? Well, they did last year, but that is part of it. That's what I'm saying. They are a rushing first team with defense, and then you don't think Blake Bortles is a good quarterback for those reasons combined. Blake Bortals is going not late. He's going undrafted.

28:32 ↗

I mean, he is not drafted in almost every single league, unless you're in a multiple quarterback or a best ball league where you're going, you know, 18 rounds. He doesn't come off the board. And what's crazy is the last three years he has averaged the quarterback eight. Yeah, I want to throw out some quarterbacks here. His worst quarterback was last year when he was the quarterback 13. These are quarterbacks who finished worse than Blake Bortles last year. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariotta.

29:00 ↗

Derek Carr, James Winston, Eli Manning. I can keep going because he was quarterback 13, and that was coming off of the heels of two top 10 finishes. So, Mike, let me ask you this question then. The offensive lines improve. That's going to help Blake Bortles as much as it'll help Leonard Fournette, right? You get time in the pocket. You get time to make your reads. He doesn't have Alan Robinson.

29:25 ↗

Alan Robinson left for Chicago. His wide receiving core is... Alan Hurons gone as well. Alan Huron's gone as well. I look at his wide receiver core and I say, you've got a lot of talent. Yes. He also has weapons out of the backfield. Corey Grant. I mean, and they added Austin Saffarian Jenkins tight end this off season. So I think it's an offense that for a quarterback like Blake Bortles, there's not one wide receiver.

29:53 ↗

that is going to demand the ball, right? You have Marquis Lee, Dede Westbrook, who was a rookie last year, Dante Moncrief, the free agent signing, Keel and Cole, the emerging rookie from last year, and then they drafted DJ Shark. Shark. You don't have... I wish it was Shark. That'd be awesome. You don't have somebody that's going to be the Des Bryant of the offense that says, give me the ball in every play, put pressure on me. It's going to be an as-it-comes-to-you situation for Bortals, which I think helps him.

30:22 ↗

Yeah, I was going to say that's not bad. Find the open, man. Don't force the ball someplace. Yeah, it's better for Bortles than it is for these fantasy-wide receivers. Marquise Lee was fine. Once Marquis Lee really took over this past season, he was definitely usable for fantasy football, but you take a look at his efficiencies and Matt Harmon's charting him out on reception perception. He's the only fella in the draft kit who scores negatively or under the...

30:51 ↗

league average on everything from how he performs against man coverage, press coverage, zone coverage. It's not pretty. But the Jaguars decided Marquisley was their guy. They let everyone else go and they gave him the money as well as Dante Moncrief. The hype train has Dede Westbrook having a spectacular training camp as well. It's really tough here when you're picking who you want to take a shot with.

31:20 ↗

at the Jaguars wide receiver position. But here's the thing. I lean that if I'm going with anyone from this group, I'm going to go with Diti. I'm going to take the guy who's going to get targets. That's the way I lean as well. But in truth, I don't think I'm going to be grabbing any of the wide receivers. If I'm grabbing a pass catching option, it might be Austin Saffarian Jenkins really late in hopes that he becomes a red zone weapon. Yeah, red zone weapon and one of the more targeted tight ends in the league. I'm taking a shot with somebody.

31:49 ↗

Marquis Lee is going in the 11th round. Didi Westbrook's going in the 14th round. Dante Moncrief is undrafted. Keel and Cole is undrafted. I'm going to take a shot with somebody. Keel and Cole? No, I think Dede's the right pick. I think in the 14th round, last pick. Let's go see what the role in the target share is in week one and two with, I think you could take any of them. Take your favorite one. If you like Marquis Lee, if you like the signing of Dante Moncrief.

32:18 ↗

I would just take a shot with somebody because you're going to potentially see something in week one. What if one of these guys comes out and gets eight targets, ten targets? Right. I don't know. The investment is nothing. You know what I mean? And I believe that the most likely scenario for a guy getting eight or ten. So let's say. Would you rather have Deshawn Jackson, or would you rather take a shot on a Jacksonville whiteout with the potential of being the number one? I would rather do the Jacksonville route. I would rather take a D-D-D. I'd go D-Jax. Okay. What about like?

32:48 ↗

Paul Richardson? Would you rather have Richardson or Dedy? I'd go Richardson. Okay. Christian Kirk or one of those Jacksonville? Jacksonville. Okay. I figured that that much. So is there anything else you want to talk about with Jacksonville or should we move it on down the line? Let's move it on.

33:05 ↗

Titans. All right. I feel like we've talked about the Titans an awful lot this off season. Yeah, Jason. That tends to happen when you have head coaching and offensive coordinator changes, and that's what Tennessee has this off season. That's why the Bears have been talked about so much as well. New head coach, Mike Vrable, and then new offensive coordinator, Matt LaFleur, coming over from Los Angeles and, you know, the wonders that he did on that offense with the Rams.

33:29 ↗

Mike is smirking. I was because when you were said he coming over from, I was imagining you saying average Joe Jim because his name is LaFleur. That's a dodgeball reference, Jason. I'm so disappointed in you right now. I am all about the dodge ball life. I just missed the reference. All right. That's why I smirks to myself and did not bring it up because I knew it wouldn't land. Nailed it. Marcus, Mario, and company.

33:58 ↗

The Titans made the playoffs last year. That was the only time we had the opportunity of seeing Corey Davis perform up to his pedigree. You know, two touchdowns, 98 yards, did it against Malcolm Butler. Right now, Corey Davis has had the opportunity to build a rapport with Marcus Mariotta in camp. Corey Davis is one of my favorite players for a breakout campaign this season. Do you guys have any news on Richard Matthews?

34:27 ↗

Thus far. No, there's no details on exactly what's going on that I've seen yet. We know that he is on the pup. He hasn't been involved in the offseason program. So he's dealing with some injury that is lingering. But we don't have the details on it. So right now he's dropping in drafts. He had a pretty significant decline last year, too. I mean, you went from 65 receptions to 53, 945 yards to 795 yards. And the big one, nine touchdowns down to four last season.

34:55 ↗

for Richard Matthews. I've always looked at him as a very talented receiver, but maybe not one that's built to be your number one. It's going to be up to Corey Davis to take that job, and maybe you could argue Delaney Walker's the number one in that offense anyway. I think you would. You also have to keep in mind, I believe Richard Matthews missed a couple games last season, so some of that decline wasn't necessarily, you know, him just dropping off, but him having lower counting stats. I've talked a lot about Mark Smariota.

35:25 ↗

and the offense that I really like. I like that the system is changing. The opportunity for more passing volume is going to come with Marriota. If he is healthy, which he clearly wasn't last season, he's going to be running the ball. That's a nice baseline. All that being said, I had talked in the studio with the guys about maybe I'm going to make Marks Mariotta my my guy. But I took that away.

35:50 ↗

solely because, like he's not going to be because of the opening schedule. It's something you need to be aware of when it comes to the Titans. The Titans open the year on the road in Miami. That's absolutely fine. So if you need him for week one, I think they'll be okay. But then the four out of their next five games to start the season are really tough defenses. Houston, assuming JJ Watt is back, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, then they get Buffalo, and then Baltimore.

36:19 ↗

Followed by the Chargers. And then they're by week. So I think that Tennessee is going to be a second half of the year team that I really like. But in drafts, I am paying attention to that because I care much more in draft season about those opening five or six weeks. It provides so much value for being able to make moves, for trades, for the, you know.

36:43 ↗

We see this year after year after year. The guys who pop early in the season, they get credit the whole season long when they shouldn't. And I don't think you're going to necessarily get that from the Titans. Here's something interesting I want to bring up. When you look at electric offenses and the way that the Rams transformed their offense last year, you saw a lot of yard after the catch from the running back position. This is something New Orleans led the league in last year. They had almost 1,200 yards after the catch from the running back position.

37:13 ↗

Tennessee was basically dead last in the league. Dallas. Thanks, DeMarco. Dallas was actually last, but yes, DeMarco Murray specifically and then Derek Henry, not their expertise, right? So you bring in Dionne Lewis, who was dominant in this fashion last year for New England, and you hope that brings more, I guess, a different element to the offense that defenses have to worry about.

37:40 ↗

We've talked about D.N. Lewis and Derek Henry, but who do you want to take the shot on this year, Mike? Are you still firmly in the Derek Henry camp? So when you're talking about the quickness and the thickness and the thickness, I do want to bring up the offensive line for Tennessee, which is a beastly unit. Now, the quickness and the thickness, just to be clear, that's the 2016 mic right and then the 2017 mic right? That's the thickness and the slowness. They're both slow. Oh, okay. Yeah, they're both slow.

38:08 ↗

But according to pro football focus, they finished last year as the fifth best offensive line. Going into this season, they are ranked as the fifth best offensive line. The downfall of the Titans, I believe, last year was not only the coaching and the play calling, but to Marco Murray's hamstring, he couldn't get right, and the coaches wouldn't make the switch to Derek Henry. Now is that...

38:34 ↗

on Derek Henry that he couldn't earn the playtime over an injured to Marco Murray. That remains to be seen. I do like Henry. I think he will be a very valuable fantasy running back. The problem is I have him as a low-end running back too, and he's going at the back of the third round according to fantasy football calculator as the 18th running back off the board, which is, according to my projections, would be a negative return on your draft value.

39:03 ↗

which is very unfortunate because I think Henry's going to be good. I think Dionne Lewis is going to be good. They will hamper each other, though. This is not a running back one. I don't think someone's going to emerge. I think it's going to be a running back by committee the entire time. And for all the people, Dionne Lewis, he's a killer value right now or whatever they believe in the fifth round. He's only that value if he ends up getting more goal line carries than you believe.

39:32 ↗

that he will get, or that I believe he will get. They got to go with Henry when it comes to the goal line. The DeMarco Murray, Derek Henry situation we saw last year serves as an example to me of what can happen when it comes to loyalty to a player. We talked yesterday about Miami, Kenyon Drake, Frank Gore. You have guaranteed workload for certain players, even when they don't produce at the same efficiency levels.

40:02 ↗

Murray was not efficient last year, but saw the field frequently. That's the concern with those situations. Jason, is there anybody else you want to throw in there? Are you ready to talk about Houston? We've got to talk Walker for at least a second. Go for it. We mentioned his name. Third in the league, I believe, in total yardage of the tight-end position. But Delaney Walker is not usually somebody that I have interest in because he ends up as one of those fifth, six-round guys, you know, where.

40:30 ↗

right in that Greg Olson area. The last few years, he's been like the fourth tight end off the board. Exactly. But this year, middle of the seventh, according to fantasy football calculator, might even be able to get him a little bit later. And he's just so reliable. They extended his contract for a two-year deal. Yeah. And what we kind of thought about Walker was this was it. There was going to be a transition to Jono Smith, the rookie tied end from last year.

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