The TRUTH: RBs Part 2 + Title Game Talk, Musical Chairs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/31

Yeah, I think that is probably the case. Are you concerned they spend a pick on somebody significant? That would be the concern. But if I had to make my bet as to whether or not someone significant comes in, I would bet against that. I do think that they will go into next season with Ramandre Stevenson being the primary guy. They drafted Pierre Strong this last year. That's exactly what my bias thinks. A lot of these running bets, you look at Damien Harris. Damien Harris rookie year was. nothing. It was Pierre Strong's rookie year. So, you know, they might draft another round four type of running back or bring in some older veteran. I think Ramandre Stevenson starts next year as the primary dude at running back. And I'll be, I'll be in on him. But you've got to, you've got to make your bet. If you're looking at his value in a dynasty, it is not a guarantee.

I've seen mock drafts where a great running back is drafted there. You know, you've now got the Alabama connection with, you know, with Bill O'Brien coming here. So if they draft Jamar Gibbs and want him to be the pass-catching guy that would destroy the, you know, three-down value of Ramandre Stevenson. All right. Let's go ahead and take a quick break and come back with Joseph. Mixing. Not heard. Wait, wait, you can hear me fine. My button is fully pressed. Yeah, we can hear you totally fine. You think you got your mute button on there, buddy? Oh, it's definitely... I've thought for a little bit. There could be a mute button problem. But ladies and gentlemen at home, you got sent to a fine sponsor break, just beautiful people supporting the podcast. We got a real loud slip right into the microphone.

It was a pretty big slurp. Oh, yeah. It was like synced up with the music dropping. It sounded a lot like this. Yeah. Yeah. What do you got in the mug? I got some LaCroy. Oh, yeah. Key line. How do you contain the bubbles? You don't, oh, they come out the bottom. You don't burp. I forgot about it. He used like the BFG. So you could, you could chug like an A&W root beer on the show with no concern. Well, I mean, other than the chugging of the sounds that would then emit. Like, do you drink any carbonated during the show? No, absolutely not. See, carbonated during the show, Mike. Mike and I have to. I am almost 100% carbonated during the show. Yeah, and in life. And in life. Interesting. That's why I'm going to pop. Someday. I don't know how to burp. Someday you will just. Just explode. Okay. All right. It was get a phone call. It finally happened. He's out. He's everywhere. He's all over the place. Joe Mixing.

What a weird year for Joe Mixon. 12th in fantasy finish. Thank you, week nine. 26 years old, RB7 off the board, consistency rank was 11. Like, this is so, he was drafted as the RB7. He finished as the RB12. He had a consistency rank of RB11. So later on, when we're not doing a truth episode, the story might be a lot different than what we talk about here to contextualize the year. But he had 7% great games, 47% good, 13% bus, missed time due to injury. You know, we just got done with a playoff matchup where Somaget P. Ryan out snapped. Joe Mixing, 43 to 23. I was going to bring it up. I'm really concerned about Joe Mixon's long-term value. He does not carry much dead cap. You know, he can be cut with $5 million this year, I think $3 million the year after that.

And he has not really been very effective. He has not shown them that he's worth 12, 13 million dollars a year, which is what they're paying him right now. Obviously, you have that game, the game, the game that Andrew remembers clearly because he got to play against him in week nine, where he went off for 50 plus fantasy points and was miraculous. From that point on, and that was the middle of the season, he had one game. with 15 fantasy points the rest of the way. And then, like you said, you saw in this last playoff match where he was being out snapped by Samaj, when they were in a close game where everything mattered. I think the team was kind of showing that there are situations where they think P-Rine is the better option or just as good as Joe Mixon. It's strange because this was a year where he set his career high in receptions.

60 receptions on the year, 441 yards, half as many touchdowns on the ground as last year. Last year was his only double-digit year at 13. He was back to 7. Lower yards per carry on the year. Far fewer carries, a lot of that due to injury, but didn't, you know, he's at 814 rushing yards. And you look at the situation, he's 26.5 years old. I don't think Joe Mixon is done. And you say, well, what offense would you rather be a part of? So it's going to be a very... I think the wounds of having Joe Mixing this year will make a big mark in next year's drafts. He'll still be a second round pick. Yeah, he'll be a good enough pick. And I do think that as time goes on and you look back and you say, oh, he was a running back one last year. He's 26 years old. He's still got two years left on his contract. I think there's going to be a really rosy narrative that could be painted for Joe Mix. And that's why. Could it be true then? It could be true. I would bet against that being true, which is why.

This seems like the perfect time for me if I am a Joe Mixon manager to try to cash in, trade for- In-Dino youth, in Dynasty, and get out of my future, you know, capitalize on what Joe Mixon has done and not be holding the bag when it runs out. Yeah, Joe Mixon feels like a tier of running back that will happen in redraft, where the main guys are gone, the people who... always want a running back first or to just stock up early, which I get it. It feels like Joe Mixon will be a guy that I want someone else to draft Joe Mixon so I can get a better wide receiver. P. Ryan's not under contract for next year. He'll be an unrestricted free agent. We'll see what they do at the backfield. Maybe they are a team that invests in a middle round pick. Would you rather have Joe Mixon, I assume, over a Dalvin Cook in a Dynasty League? Yes. Just simply due to the age?

Jason's not sure. I'm not sure. I think I would rather have Dalvin Cook than Joe Mixon personally. Joe Mixon has been very inefficient. I mean, his workload and expectation this year was everything you could have hoped for and dreamed for when he was on the field. And he disappointed too much. I was talking to a good friend of the show, Paul Chartian, who is fantasy football legend. He's been a Minnesota guy and just getting the sentiment up there. And this is just sentiment, of course. This is like media, fans. Things inside the team can be completely different. But he was telling me the sentiment is Daval Cook is either gone or heavily restructured just to come back next year. And with Adam Thielen as well, the Thielen one makes sense. The Ezekiel Elliott plan. But it just, well, Zeke didn't have to restructure. No, he will. Mm-hmm.

That's the story. I'm saying it's the same story for this off season. If you want to come back, you better give some money back. And it's like if Dalvin Cook goes back to the Minnesota Vikings, for less money, he's still Dalvin Cook on the Minnesota Vikings and you're not as concerned about him. But it's like if that is a conversation that's going to have to happen, that's like will Dalvo Cook, is he the type of person who accepts that that is the. The scenario he's in, will you say, fine, release me, I'll go find another team. There's just a lot of, a lot of variables up in the air with him right now. I could see him taking a Melvin Gordon route and going to a different team, having some fantasy relevance. Going to Chicago? Sure, but, you know, that's, his potential dead cap this season would be $6 million if they cut him. Now, there is a big difference here between the Vikings and the Bengals. Bengals have plenty of.

cap space. So while a lot of that, I'm sure, is going to be going to Joe Burrow, they can, they don't need to get out of Joe Mix. And I would expect him back. So that's interesting to hear that from charging. I assume you guys saw the news too. The NFL just announced the salary cap for next year, $224.8 million, $16 million higher than last year's cap. Yet another way the cap is somewhat of an illusion for teams between restructures, cap rising, highest ever. I think Mixon, Mixon's year, you know, finishing at 12 with missing that many games of injury, that will be part of the positive narrative next year, being attached to a good quarterback. Certainly, we know that touchdowns, they are a fluctuation. So I think there's still some good years. He'll be good, he won't be elite. It's just so crazy that 25% of his fantasy points came in that one game. Sure. Yeah, yeah, against me. Miles Sanders.

Miles Sanders came in at 13. What a strange fantasy story, Miles Sanders will be. RB 31 in the draft, so Miles Sanders was a huge value. 25th in consistency, 41% good, 18% great. You ready for this? 47% bust. That means 40, basically 50-50 shot that you were going to get seven or fewer points from Miles Sanders. Mike, I don't know if there's a player you shook your head more at than Miles Sanders this year because. when he was having one of his big games and the team was relying on him, he always delivered when relied upon. Yes. And wasn't always relied upon. And we've watched the playoffs. You know, Kenny Gainwell is an explosive, talented player. He's looking so good. The team was still willing to give important carries to Boston Scott. So what do you do with Miles Sanders? This is a 50-50 bust, you know, 50% of the time you were happy. I mean, it...

Best offensive line in football. Number one, he's a free agent. So him and Dave of Montgomery, what happens with them? Do they go back to their team? Do they go out and try to secure the bag and get an opportunity elsewhere? I don't feel like I have a good read on what Miles Sanders will do. But he will be, I mean, if he is, in fact, if he's brought back, then if he has drafted accordingly, which is drafted as a, I mean, that's like a dead zone running back, then it's perfectly okay. Maybe you have a break glass in case of emergency plan of I can get Miles Sanders in the fourth round and I know that I'm going to be flipping a coin if it's good or bad. Jason, who are you more excited about in a dynasty format heading into this offseason, Miles Sanders or David Montgomery? Who would you rather put on your roster today as of this recording? David Montgomery. I agree.

Yeah, I don't, Miles Sanders, we don't know that he is going to be back as an Eagle. I don't think he'll get a massive payload and a massive workload for a different team. And he's talented. I mean, what is the truth about Miles Sanders? He looked great all year. Ran for 4.9 of Kerry was awesome. Not necessary for the Philadelphia Eagles offense. Sometimes it works out and sometimes they just flat don't need him at all. And you have. He's running behind PFF's number one offensive line. And when a running back goes from that, should they go to a different team that is nowhere near that ranking? And then all of a sudden that running back starts to look not nearly as stellar. Don't be surprised. Yeah, the thought is maybe he goes out and gets a two to three year deal the way that James Connor did when he left Pittsburgh. Sure. That could be the situation for Miles Stitt. I do think he's a talented player. And I actually think, you know, barring injury, he could hold up as somebody's primary running back.

But does he end up in a situation where all of a sudden, Miles Sanders is the backup to Austin Echler or something like that this next season? I don't know what that market's going to look like. Najee Harris came in at 14. Oh, man. Finished at 14. Consistency was 18. The consistency in the first half? 38. And yet, here we were with Najee Harris on a bad offense, salvaging his season. Now, drafted at RB6, finishing at 14, not what you wanted. But the second half of the year. It was great. He was great. Our consistency metric, he was number four. I mean, he never really had terrible games and often was very good. It looked like he finally got healthy and it was really after that by week. I don't know if the little... I think they took a plate out of his foot. Or no, he stopped playing with the plate in his shoe, if I remember that correctly. It was a difference. It certainly was a difference. And he, you just saw it in the way he ran. The yards per carry, the aggressiveness.

It was a massive difference. I don't know where this team is heading offensively. 35% good game, 6% great. So you didn't win weeks because of Najee Harris unless you somehow played him the final week of your fantasy season. But still, some hope and optimism, especially if you're in a dynasty format and you're saying, I'm watching, I mean, Mike was one of them. You're watching Najee Harris maybe expire in front of your eyes. After a freaking great. great rookie year of boom, Blue Chip foundational dynasty running back for a handful of years. Second year, it felt like you were, you'd already expired. You're like, I should have traded Najee. Oh, no. No, I really like Najee going forward. You've got an offense that even though Kenny Pickett is never going to be something special and have an elite offense. What do they do there? It's still a situation where he'll get better. The offense should be better next year for sure. And.

Najee is still young. I think the arrow points up over this season for next year, and I'm probably going to be far more in on Najee Harris in year two with Pickett than I was coming into this season. Do you view him as an RB1? I will probably have him as an RB1 next year, almost certainly. I think he's right on the more upper RB2 category for me. What about you, Mike? Yeah, I would agree back in RB1. Still. getting a ton of volume. I feel real cozy with him as my RB2. I'll put it that way. Oh, yeah. Like the ultimate RB2 on a team that might not score as much as other teams. When you were saying you didn't win because of Najee, that was my first thought was he is a perfect running back too. He's not the guy that's going to go out and try to put up 40 points, but you've got just a solid position slot filled. And we got to deal with what felt like the first year ever of.

of the doubts of like is Mike Tom I'm going to go to a running back by committee? Because Jalen Warren, the undrafted rookies got juice. He looks fast out there. And yeah, he started to get some more work. But it never turned into a committee. It was it was nodgy when he was available. So to be able to fight that off, there is a ton of confidence. So just real quick, because you said, can he pick it? And I'm saying, well, what do you do here with a quarterback that, let's see, started? what, 10 games or so, maybe a little bit more, but he finished 2,400 yards, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions. That's awful. And he played, yeah, I guess he missed four or five games. The quarterback play in that division outside of Joe Burrow was very difficult to watch. I mean, if you have, Katie Pickett and Deshaun Watson over the back half of the year, this was Smash Mail. This was not.

aired out modern football. But it's like, are you stuck with him or do you think they try to find an ejection seat? The hard part for me is the nature of the Steelers organization and the decisions that they make. So I think this is not the kind of team that, you know, the Jets owner will come out and say, I'll trade anything I want for Aaron Rogers. That's not the Steelers. Right. You know, I know last off season we were rumoring or, you know, talking about the Steelers. I just think that they're the kind of team that wants to build some.

Maybe they'll build competition in the draft. I don't know what they do. I don't think Kenny Pickett showed enough to say he's the future, but I don't think he showed so little that you can't give him another shot. Okay. I think the dump truck's days are over. Leonard's Fournett comes in at 15. Oh, man. Finished at 15, drafted his RB 14. Consistency was 15, so right on the nose. Had some games, caught some passes. That was kind of the highlight there. 83 target, 73 catches. Don't look at the rushing yardage. Don't look at the rushing touchdowns. But, you know, 13% buss, 40% good, 7% great. Okay. Yeah, he's got a $1 million dead cap to get out. So, you know, is he even on the team? If he's on the team, does he have a quarterback that's going to check the ball down over and over and over and over? Probably not.

The only situation that I like Leonard Fournett's situation is if Tom Brady is back and Leonard Fornett is back. I don't even like it then. Not another year under the, with how good Rashad Whitelock, I don't even know if I like it. Yeah, I mean, that's, but that's the best case scenario. I don't think there's any situation where he finds another team that just says, man, Leonard Fortinette was the number four overall pick in. 2017, he's great. I'm going to make him the dude of our franchise. No, it's not happening. He hasn't looked great. He's just been a solid veteran who catches a lot of passes and that helps a lot in fantasy. Should fantasy managers go out and while he is still a buccaneer try to make a move for Rashad White? Like, do you believe in the future of Rashad White enough to?

to be the bell cow on this Tampa team in transition? I don't believe in the future of the Buccaneers offense. So I have a hard time saying I want to invest in any of those pieces there. Yeah. I mean, to me it's more about the talent of Rashad White. You know, there's some offenses that we do not believe in. We just talked about Pittsburgh, you know, Breece Hall, that offense, didn't believe in that one. I guess I'm just curious if you think Rashad has the, because it seems like you would get them now, obviously for a price that's cheaper than if Fournet departs.

Yeah, I mean, I would certainly, I would rather have Rashad White than Four Nett, and you might be able to actually get that done in a one-for-one trade, trade the veteran with the bigger name, with the better history for the up-and-comer. You know, I don't know. Most leagues probably wouldn't do that deal straight up, but you could try, and I would rather have white. But I still just don't think, I don't think Brady's back with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and if he's not, it's probably going to be very. lousy. Kenneth Walker, 22 years young. RB 37 in the draft finishes at 16. Had a game and a half missed due to injury. Consistency rank was 14, but number seven from weeks five and on, which is really, you know, that's past Rashad Penny's injury, rookie time, acclamation, detonation. That's what matters for.

for Kenneth Walker is when he became what he's going to be. Because I think we all project that what he spent this season doing without Rashad Penny is the role he's going to find himself in next year. And so from that point on, being the consistency rank number seven, being absolutely fantastic with very few bust games. And, you know, from that point on, 8% of his games were bust. And he's talented. You watch it on the field. You go, oh, there's a reason why this guy, you know, some people were to like him more than Brees Hall coming out. He was a fantastic prospect. He's on a team that wants to run the ball who now magically was able to fix their offensive line. And the future is very bright for Kenneth Walker. One of eight rookie running backs since 2011 with a thousand plus rushing yards, nine plus rushing touchdowns, and 35 plus targets. And those eight rookie running backs, it's a.

Pretty good list to be in. Barkley, Taylor, Zeke, Doug Martin. Dude, I mean, Doug Martin had his, rookie season was stupid. Doug Martin had his time. It just was real, 1554 yards. The muscle hamster can only run so long, Mike. Yes, I get it. And so Walker, 17, 15 plus yard runs. That's the third most among running backs and most for a rookie running back since Saquan. He was a huge play guy out on the field. And their offensive line can get even better. They were, what, they were ranked where I lost it. It was like 27th. Yeah, PFF had the ranked 27th. So that can improve as well. I mean, he, I don't think we're going to get to the point where Kenneth Walker is a top three pick, top five pick. I don't think he'll be there. But he's kind of like the, he seems like he might be the best running back one.

That is not part of the true three-down guys. I will be curious who right now you prefer in a dynasty format between him and this next guy. Travis E.T.N. at 17. 24 years old was drafted as the RB 17, finished there. Consistency rank of 23. The first half, it was pretty good. Second half consistency was not so good. His season was all over the place. It really was. 35% bus games, 35% good, 18% great. What was your takeaway? What's the truth about Travis ETN for you? He was 5.1 yards per carry, which was right between Pollard and Nick Chubb. So that was incredible. Nine yards per reception. Explosive player. Yeah, to give him kind of the same benefit you're giving Kenneth Walker, since this was basically his rookie year, and he started the year with...

You know, James Robbins is a similar situation. You look at week five on, and our truth score, he was the running back 16, so not quite as good as Kenneth Walker. You thought you had something unbelievably magical when he took over, and then he had back to back to back, top 10 running back performances. It seemed like he was in 40-yard runs every week. Yeah, I mean, it just seemed like he was going to be, you know, a top three dynasty running back. From that point on, week 10 and on, you know, he had basically one very good game left. You know, one game over 15 fantasy points. He got knocked out of one, right? He did. Yes. Yes. Well, yes. He played early in that game was removed. Eight percent of snaps in week 12. Right. But then wasn't injured and came back and played fine the next week. But there was a lot of concern with the foot because that was.

That was the issue that he was working through. Now, he was an incredible college prospect. I really loved him coming out. He showed enough flashes of brilliance and those long runs that I am a believer in him going forward. He's on an offense and a team with a quarterback that should just keep getting better. So I'm in on Travis ETN. If you say, who would I rather have between Kenneth Walker and Travis ETN? It's Kenneth Walker, but it's not an anti-Travis E-TN. Yeah, I mean, you get a couple years back with Kenneth Walker. They're essentially the exact same size as players as well. Like their weight? Yeah, their height and weight are very, very similar. That's a wild. At least Walker's listed at 5-9-211. E.T.N's listed at 5-10-215. So, you know, they're very similar in size. No one gets blown up the way Travis E-TN.

There's a reason I called him the work pony is because he looks like he explodes. There were like eight plays I can think of on the season where a running back got hit and went backwards five yards in the air. And I think seven of them were ETN. It's true. Alvin Camara, what's the truth about this guy? 18 is where he finished. Drafted as the RB8, one of the big busts. I mean, if you were drafting, okay, go back in time, mix in Alvin Camara. Both of them ended up. much lower in fantasy finish than where you drafted him, who would have burnt you more? Oh, Alvin Camara. Alvin Camara was atrocious. He did not do hardly anything good for you. 7% great games, that's not a good number. Only 33% of his games were good, that's not a good number. 33% of his games were a flat out bust. That's a bad number. His efficiency metrics on a per touch basis were not like what Alvin Camara has seen the rest of his career. Now he's getting older.

And you could say, well, maybe he has lost a step. You could also make the argument. Look, this offense was incredibly injured. You didn't have the quarterback that you should have had in James Winston. So they had to go to Andy Dalton. The receivers all went down to injury. You know, you lost Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry and for a while Chris Oliva. And so, yeah, you're going to focus in on Alvin Camara. But at 27 and a half years old, on an offense that to me does not seem like they're just going to snap their fingers and get it together.

I find myself very pessimistic for a bounce back campaign ever again from Alvin Kamara. Six rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons for Alvin Kamara. What? No. These are the numbers in front of my face, unless I'm reading something wrong. He had two this year and four last year. So that is a concern. Wait, what? Yeah. How long ago was the Christmas Eve game? To 2020. That was 2020? So I just want to highlight, like you've gotten six touchdowns total into, you talk about mixing. He had seven. You're like, ah, it wasn't 13 like last year. He had two this year. He's also not, like he's always been pinnacle efficiency. He's been at 3.7 and 4 the last two years. The reception totals that were always 80 receptions, 47 and 57. So it does seem like you're entering the twilight of Alvin Camara's career.