Fantasy Football - AFC West Breakdown + Mock Draft Promises - Podcast for 7/14

You lose your half a billion dollar man to a torn left ACL late in the season. All the recovery reports right now are very, very positive. But then you also had, you know, Rashi Rice had missed the first six weeks last year with the suspension, then missed three weeks with a concussion. He had his own sort of drama this off season again. Like there are, there are a lot of questions about this offense in terms of the weapons for Patrick Mahomes. When Mahomes will be back as a, you know, fully loaded version of himself. Last year, they only had four offensive plays of 20 plus yards that resulted in a touchdown.

That is the fewest in the NFL. It's the most opposite of what we used to have in Kansas city with the likes of Tyreek Hill and the big plays. There were 20 at the points per game, 20 yards per game. You mentioned it that he only missed two games. This was an offensive just plain didn't work. It was a running game that didn't work at all. No, not at all. And so, you know, you look at the entirety of the chiefs and there's only one player on that team that I have tremendous, a good amount of confidence with producing this year.

And is that Rushy Rice or is that Kenneth Walker? Okay. It's Ken Walker. Yes, it is. I just don't. I think it was a definitive statement by the team to go out and invest in him. And again, that's not me saying he's a number one running back or anything like that. It's just that I don't. He'll say that. I see Rushy Rice's production, Mahomes' production, Kelsey's production, other ancillary weapons vacillating all over the place. I would agree with you other than Rushy Rice. Maybe Rice is the. Rice to me is. Well, he may vacillate between active and inactive. That's true.

Whenever you really always have to lead with when he's on the field. When he's on the field, he's great. When he's on the field, you know. Okay, that is an important distinction. That being said, most of his not being on the field has been suspension over injury. And right now it does not seem. They've already suspended him for what he had a problem with. We haven't heard any news or buzz about the fact that his parole came up costing him games. So as of right now, my expectation is that he's there week one. He is coming off of his own injury.

However, it always takes remembering how many fantasy points he scores when he is on the field. How many targets he gets from Mahomes. Mahomes last year was the running game. He would drop back. He couldn't find anybody if Rice wasn't there. And he would run. And that was really what saved his fantasy production. I don't expect that to happen coming off of a late ACL. He's going to be dumping it to Rushy Rice all the time. Rushy Rice last year in the games played. Eight games played. All with Mahomes. Who's on pace for 165 targets from Mahomes. Double digit touchdowns.

1,200 yards. 112 receptions. That's top three wide receiver type of numbers. Is that what you truly believe he would be over the course of an entire season? I truly believe over a course of, if he plays 17 and Mahomes plays 17, for this version of the team, we've got an old Kelsey. You can run now. And ancillary pieces. I think that helps. I do too. I think Walker really, really helps this team. And generally I'm on the team of a running back addition can't really come in and save an offense. They were awful. We mentioned how bad the ground game was, but so last year, as a team, won 20 plus yard

run. Wow. That's what the Kansas City Chiefs had. Ken Bone Walker, even in limited snaps last year, had 10 by himself. Like, Walker is a piece of an offense that this team has not had for a long time. And I think him being a true threat, an explosive threat, where it's not like, oh boy, it's Kareem Hunt or Pacheco. Okay, fine. They're not, defenses are not housing anything. Defenses are not worried about those guys breaking off a huge run. Ken Walker is one of the players of every time he goes to the edge, you're like, oh, someone better tackle him.

And I really think that opens things up for Rice. And Rasheed Rice, the wide receiver, that's just a different conversation of how good is he actually, how good are his routes? I don't care. He has the mind meld with Mahomes. And so I will just lean on that. When I look at, he is obviously a dangerous pick. His risk rating in the UDK is going to be plenty high because he might just do something in the middle of the season that jails him, you know, but if I look at where he's going, it's like, okay, Chris Olave, George Pickens, Rushy Rice, Tee Higgins, Tate.

There's only one of those guys that could finish like the one, the number one or top three wide receiver. They're all good wide receivers I mentioned, but if you're really wanting to swing for the fences and get a fantasy championship, I could see Rushy Rice being at the end of the year, like he was one of the best. Yeah, I think too. It's wild because, you know, I like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes was something to prove after last year. I do like that. Eric Bien-Ami is taking over the offense from Matt Nagy. I mean, taking over in the complimentary sense to Andy Reid.

No, Bien-Ami, this is great news. Maybe. Was it Bien-Ami or was it Tyreek Hill? Okay, that's a fair question. But we know that the offense with Matt Nagy as the OC over the last couple years, we're like, where the heck did Patrick Mahomes go? What is going on here? Like the high-flying good times Mahomes, you remember? That's where Bien-Ami was on the staff. Did you guys mention that? I got a question for you, Mike. Okay. So coming up here really soon, we're going to be talking to Jackson Dart, Cam Scadaboo. Right. We're going to the Fanatics Fan Fest. How much crap should we talk about Matt Nagy?

To their faces? To their faces. I mean, obviously, we're going to talk infinite behind their backs. But should we, in that moment, bring up our disdain? Or should we just be gentlemen? Because I keep vacillating. Well, you have to do... He just uses that word. Man, there's so much. I would like you to find a way to ask... Who was it that JSN gave the answer about the offensive coordinator? Oh. Walton? No. Shane Waldron. Waldron. Yes. Find a way to get an answer like that. Well, but he's still on the team. He hasn't... It would be next year when he's going to be able to say that.

Last year, Kansas City, 25th in pre-snap motion, 30th in play action rate. You can't play action when you have no threat of the run. Ken Walker gives them a threat of the run. I laugh at the player subtraction list for the Chiefs this year because it is a laundry list of players we talked about like 10 years ago. Kareem Hunt, Hollywood Brown, and Juju. Three of the names departing along with Pacheco. They didn't... The star has set. I will say this. They didn't... Yeah. The star has set. They didn't really add anybody in like... Other than Ken Walker, they didn't add anybody in free agency in the draft that are offensive

weapons. It's not something they invested in. They are going to be a very good defensive team. It lends itself to... Look, can we... Like Patrick Mahomes coming back from NACL, you want to protect him. You want to get the ball out of his hands. You want to have a running game that protects him. That could be part of the recipe to start the season. They have a wonderful first six weeks. Favored, favored, favored, favored, favored. By week, favored. That's nice to see. Two home games to start the year. Then you go on the road against Miami, Las Vegas. So, yeah.

I mean, I'm excited to see if I can become a Ken Walker fan on a weekly basis. I... Brother, this is best case scenario for everyone. Doesn't matter what side of the Walker argument you were on. This is... Because if he fails this year, us Walker truthers, we will be... We're going to lock the door. Step out of the train. We will be done. We will admit we were wrong. But if he goes to this team and dominates... Oh, man. Proof! We're never going to hear the end. Proof! All the... Hey. All are welcome. Mike will get a new tattoo.

All are welcome on the Express. Do you care about Worthy and Kelsey? Ken Bone Walker. Kelsey more than Worthy. I think Worthy and Thornton. You know, with the fact that Ken Bone... You guys saw the Worthy video, right? Yeah. Oh, yes. The routes. Real tight corners. Tight. That looked like some thick grass, man. Why did... Why? Why post that? Why was that posted? Yes. For those who haven't seen it, Worthy was running the most ridiculous... I don't even... You can't call it a route. He's running circles. He's running big, wide circles. He's just... And it looks worse than I would expect my kids to have.

Perhaps. I don't know. As not a professional wide receiver, perhaps something's going on there that we don't know about. But optically, why are you posting that? Yeah. I agree. I think that the deep threats in Worthy and Thornton will have their games, but it's tough for me to want to draft them because I don't think they will be reliable enough. Kelsey is another one of those guys that... I mean, look. He's got... Kelsey has a... At the end of the draft, again... Some of these... Kelsey can be top five again. Not everybody that we mention in this handful of late-round targets at tight end will be

there at the end of the draft. But for sure some of them will be because there's enough of those tier of guys where they're just undrafted. And maybe Kelsey goes a little earlier because he's first ballot Hall of Fame and people hope for the upside. But when he slips in a draft to those double-digit rounds... Laporta for your team or Kelsey? I would much rather have Kelsey in the 12th or 10th than Laporta in the 5th. Laporta's going in the 5th? No. No, but I would much rather have him. I don't know. Where is Laporta going right now? I'd much rather have Kelsey in the 15th than Laporta in the 1st.

I'll tell you that. Yeah. No, dude. Me too. Let me look up... He blew my mind for a second. I bet he's going in the 9th. He's 8th. Okay. The Raiders. Last team we get to talk about in the AFC West. Projected win total last year was 6.5. They ended up with the worst record in the league. Despite having, according to Jason, the league's best quarterback in Geno Smith... Only comparatively to the last year's Jets quarterbacks. I know. I just am having fun with it. 2-5-1 score games. They won week 1 against the Patriots, which is wild. The Patriots go to the Super Bowl...

Oh, week 1. ...in Foxborough. Week 1. I mean, beyond that, they were 2-14. Their win total this year, 5.5. So, they're only favored in three of their 17 games. They were the worst offense in football last year. They were one of the worst defenses in football, and you have a head coaching change. Because Pete Carroll, goodbye. Yeah. It was fun. But the flavor in that bubblegum, it's finally gone. Yeah. Clint Kubiak, though. I mean, this was... It's exciting. It was the time to capitalize. You go and you do what you did in Seattle. It was impressive. And he gets the head coaching gig.

They add Kirk Cousins. They obviously drafted Fernando Mendoza at 101. They added an elite edge rusher in Max Crosby. Yeah. That's right. Yes. From the Ravens. Yeah. Two first-round picks? Yeah. Okay. Do you realize, by the way, that like... You know that Mendoza's not under contract? I did not know that. Wait, he hasn't... What? Yeah, go Google it. Is that why he's out on Alaska? Go Google it. No. Yes, it is. You're saying he hasn't signed? I do not believe he is. I believe they thought he was going to sign. I see he's signed. One day ago, Marcus Allen talking about the Fernando Mendoza situation, the fact that he is not in the building.

He was supposed to. Yes. This is what I'm saying. It's been very under-publicized. It's been under-publicized because it will be irrelevant. Well, but it's relevant to your snaps and your OTAs and your chance to get reps on this team and your confidence from your head coach is going on. I would agree. The difference, and I think... This is why he was on a cruise with me. Right. From our perspective, everyone expects Kirk Cousins to start the season, and everyone expects Mendoza to finish the season. I believe that's what's going to happen no matter what. Right. I didn't realize it. I feel like it hasn't been talked about because these are normally slotted situations, and the money's pretty set.

So then you're talking about things like signing bonus differentials or something. Yeah, there's always weird things that... I'm not the expert on what's going on because this is sort of breaking news the last week. It also looks like their fourth-round pick, McCoy, hadn't signed. Well, they are the Raiders. Yeah. When you've got certain... Figure it out. So it is going to be Cousins to start this year, which... I think it's good. Cousins loves to throw the football to the running back position. That's the thing that jumps out to me. If you want to get off to a hot start, I'm already in love with Dash and Jinty this year, but give me a professional quarterback that's already played and some...

There are just metrics rookie quarterbacks don't hit. They don't hit certain touchdown totals. They don't hit certain yardage totals. The pass attempts per game are going to be lower. I like that it's Cousins to start the year. I do, too. We've talked a lot about the research that we've done, Mike's done, on the fact that pass-catching weapons don't usually do well in fantasy with a rookie quarterback. So if you give half a year of Cousins and half a year with Mendoza, and specifically the second half of the year with Mendoza, obviously they're going to be better then than having to start the season slow.

I mean, there's some risk of Ashton Jinty if you're saying that... Like, Mendoza's inevitable. Yes. It's just at what point... No, there's been whispers of they want an entire year of red-shirting. That'd be great. That would be great. Would you be able to... You're not going to do that if you're two and three. Well, you might. You might. But at what point... If the season's lost, you also have to make that decision about are those reps valuable. What I'm getting to is I will always be on the side of I'm worried about rookie quarterbacks, their skill players, because rookie quarterbacks just don't produce as much.

If you have a switch halfway through and now it's like... Bowers. Jinty. Jinty's one of your guys and you're heading into the playoffs. You want... If you have a down first half and an elite second half, that's so much better. Yeah, I mean, I... Because you want to win a championship. I see what you're saying, but I think that when we look at... And maybe we can do a study on second half of the year rookie, you know, and they're receiving options in the second half of the year. Because it's very, very common where we come in and talk about a second year quarterback and we say, let's throw out the first month of their play.

Let's look at the second half of their year and it's significantly better. Makes just all the sense of the world. Right, but if he didn't get a first half. It's his first half if he's taken over at the back half. I mean, obviously it depends on what week he goes in, but I don't think he makes it all the way to the fantasy playoffs before he gets his first start. I don't like... It is interesting because both of the elite tight ends that you want the most on your team this year do have quarterback change variables built in. Sure. If Bowers gets off to a rock solid start...

Bowers is going to be awesome. He is going to be awesome. But you are going to have... Look, we spent the entire time talking about the Cardinals and we broke them down. What the target totals and the numbers look like for Trey McBride with Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are a team projected to win almost nothing. There's a chance they take a shot on Carson Beck or somebody the second half of the year or the second... Oh. You know, the last third of the year. I would be surprised if Carson Beck doesn't get some starts. So that is something that's built into both these guys.

If Mendoza takes over for the last third of the year, you're going to be underdogs in all those games. You're getting your first snaps. You're going to put pressure on the quarterback. It is going to be a variable there for Bowers and Trey McBride that are... Like McBride's numbers were so outlandish with Brissett. We're like, oh, well, they'll just be good with somebody else. It's... How many touchdowns does Mendoza throw? How many touchdowns does Carson Beck throw for Arizona? That's the concern. McBride's always been great. It was the touchdowns that destroyed him. And I do not... It doesn't stop me from drafting Bowers because who else are you going to take if you want elite production at tight end?

But I know that Caleb Williams is going to be the starter for the entire year for Colson Loveland. Sure. Daniel Jones, barring injury, is going to start the entire year for the Indianapolis Colts. It's just something to keep in the back of your head. Yeah, that's fair. I think that the talent of Bowers and McBride just usurp the quarterback issues, especially Bowers because... Well, Carson Beck. I mean, Carson Beck, if he gets starts, that's going to be really, really tough sledding. Mendoza's the number one overall pick for a reason. Maybe he doesn't throw as many touchdowns, which nerfs the true upside.

But the number one target for this team is Bowers. I mean, by the widest margin ever, you don't have that same certainty with McBride. Like, maybe Marv becomes the number one target this year or whatever. I did laugh at your statement about that they don't... We did research on how, like, pass catchers don't do good with rookie quarterbacks. And then the Raiders are like, yeah, so we won't have any. We decided we'll just not have any. Other than Bowers, we're just not going to worry about Naylor and Tucker and Best. I actually love the Raiders here because their defense is bad and their consolidation of talent is perfect.