ADP Price Check + Improved Offenses, Counting is Hard - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/23

doesn't get something done, holds out for a little bit, Kittle will be a monster. Well, even with Debo's dominant fantasy season of last year, George Kittle missed three games and he was still the tight end four. Now, I get it, you are moving over to Trey Lance, but there are just, there's not many tight ends that can actually do what George Kittle is, is, uh, what he can do. There's two. There's two, right? Andrews, Kelsey.

Right, I was actually, I was going to, yeah, I'm going to pose the question to you. Okay, all right. We're getting off track, but it doesn't matter. Dad's gone. We can do whatever we want. Do you prefer George Kittle? And this is in a vacuum. So I'm not, I'm not baking an ADP right here. George Kittle or Kyle Pitts. I prefer Pitts. Really? Yeah, I think that the, the upside is still, with Mario, I don't see it happening. I don't see Pitts being some, you know.

eight touchdown guy. Right. But I could still see that happen. Pitts is an otherworldly talent who had, you know, an absolutely over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Exactly. As a rookie, as a tight end, going into year two, he's the center of the offense. I would rather take Pitts. If they were both at the same spot, I would take Pitts over Kittle. All right. So back to George Kittle. Like I said, he's our consensus tight end six. Where is he going in ADP? I think that.

the fantasy community is, I bet that Pitts is going higher than George Kittle over on the sleeper platform. So I think that Kittle is going in the back of the fourth. I will go 411. Yeah, I think he's going in the middle of the fourth. I will go 406. Where is he going? 307. All right. We were both a little.

We pumped the brakes a little bit too much. It's funny because I've been two different drafts. I've been on the three-four turn and had Kittle there. And he's dropped into the fourth in both of the drafts I was in. So surprised to see that his average draft position is that high. On underdog, George Kittle is going at around the 410. He's going behind Darren Waller. So that's interesting. Meanwhile, you know, last year, 14 games.

71 over 900 yards, six touchdowns, a 25% target share, the second most yards after catch. And, like, yes, moving to Tray Lance could be potentially a problem for the past catchers of San Francisco. But Tray Lance also, like, he bombs it downfield, which is not something that Jimmy Garoppolo does. Now, if you...

You add in some air yards here and the yards after catch. I think that there's still hope. Oh, there is. There is massive hope. Don't take my ranking here to say that, like, I'm out on George Kittle. These are kind of median rankings of, you know, statistical probability. But when you look at the upside and what Kittle can do that other tight ends can't do, like I have T.J. Hawkinson ranked ahead of Kittle. If they both hit.

Kittle is way higher than T.J. Hoggson. You know, it's that type of a style. Like, I have Dalton Schultz ahead of George Kittle, just volume involvement in a higher elite fantasy quarterback throwing him the ball. Much better than Trey Lance. I would agree with you there as far as throwing the ball. But if both of them hit, Kittles way better than Dalton Schultz. So Kittle is a guy that when you draft an early tight end.

You are trying to say I'm done with this position for the year. I'm locking it in. Like I really... Because you're saying this player can be a top two tight end. Exactly. I don't want to draft a middle round Dallas Goddard and then, you know, because he's good. Dallas Goddard's good. But he can't be great in his position on that offense. So George Kittle can be great. Do you expect George Kittle's ADP to change?

Once we get confirmation of who the starter is for San Francisco. I don't think that there is going to be any confirmation of anything. The expectation right now is that it's Tray Lance. I think that's how the entire community is seeing it. And I saw a recent report from the athletic that didn't, you know, they had Garoppolo getting cut. That was their beat reporter. And granted, San Francisco beat reporters are notoriously wrong.

But I don't think it will change with the quarterback news. I think where he is, if he's, if he's, you know, there in the back of the third, that seems about where he will finish, possibly slip a little. There are, what if I gave you reports that Mike Wright of the fantasy footballers is saying that Jim McGroplo is not the starting quarterback? Is that more secure? I mean, I love that guy.

No, thank you. You're welcome. He appreciates that. All right, we'll go with one more player before we jump into the basketball segment. A rookie from the New Orleans Saints who I think that people are, we're coming around here on Mr. Chris Oliva. The Saints, they're certainly in on him after you do the, you add up everything that they traded to move up in the draft, which when they were making those moves, just like,

Well, this is for a quarterback. You don't trade this much of your draft capital to go up and not take a quarterback. And that's what they did. And they took Chris Olavé, who is, like, he is truly an electric football player. But he's a rookie wide receiver. He is competing with the hope of Michael Thomas returning.

And James Winston is the one throwing him the ball. So where is the fantasy football community on Chris Olabe, Jason? This one is really interesting. Rookie wide receivers. This is very tough. Rookie wide receivers can be absolutely all over the place from year to year. I do think the last two years of rookie explosions at wide receiver will pump the wide receivers up. So I'm going to say Olavi is probably higher than I think.

Maybe 601. 601. Okay, I was just going to give you a quick reminder. 11th overall. Olave was drafted before Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson before Traylon Burks. Mm-hmm. And just it doesn't feel like we're talking, even to this point. 511 or is that way you're trying to. No, no, no, no. I don't know where his ADP is. I'm just trying to, you know, paint a happy little cloud in this ADP picture. Paint that cloud with your prediction. I think that you are.

Too bullish. Maybe over, he feels like someone who would be going higher on underdog. But Alave really has a chance to be special. I think that he is going on sleeper. This is the one that can make us look really dumb. I will go, I'll go in the eighth. Oh, I mean, he could be getting propped up, you know, by like, this feels very Jalen Waddle, right? Where we were all.

Hot and Bothered by Jamar Chase being selected top five by the Cincinnati Bengals and he's got Joe Burrow. And then Waddle goes like immediately after him. We're like, man, he went to the Dolphins. I'm not interested in Wattle. And then he sets the rookie record for receptions. All right. I'm going to Lave. I'll stop stalling 806-ish. All right. The pick is in.

What do we got? 812. 812, wide receiver 42. Okay, okay. I can totally get behind that. Yes. If you're telling me that you're basically at the 8-9 turn and you're looking at other wide receivers in that range, it's hard to think of someone who is as good as Chris Oliva, obviously he's a rookie. We talk other fantasy footballers a lot about rookie wide receivers.

don't usually, historically, pan out as draft picks. They are great guys to get off the waivers after, you know, a month of not really doing enough. And so you pick them up and you, the second half of the season, they're awesome. That's very common. But what they gave up for a team that is saying we win now, we are in this, they have clearly pushed all their chips in that they think they can take this division, they could beat the bucks, and they know they could beat the other two teams. Chris Olavi.

could very well end up being the one because we're two years removed from a Michael Thomas ankle injury. Who still is not ready to go. I mean, that's just craziness. And you've got Jarvis Landry there, but you've got a guy in James Winston that can support multiple wide receivers. And Chris Oliva is, I'm really excited to see him as an NFL prospect because he was the wide receiver three for his college team, which is kind of crazy.

He was behind next year's probably number one drafted wide receiver. Right. And Garrett Wilson. And Garrett Wilson. So it's no, you know, that's not, that's not embarrassing. He's there with elite other prospects. But when I watch his route running, his refinement, his speed sub 4-4, I mean, he really could be special. I want to see how it translates to the NFL. And if you're taking him at that 8-9 turn, I'm 100% fine with that. Since 2014.

rookie wide receivers with that draft capital that Crystal Lave got. And they've actually seen 50 targets. So, you know, they didn't have a catastrophic reason they weren't on the field. But since 2014, they've averaged, these rookie wide receivers have averaged a 22% target share over 1.8 yards per route run, over six receiving touchdowns. That's like, you know, Amari Cooper as a rookie, which he was over 70 receptions over 106, which in...

where he's going right now, that's, I would absolutely take that. Yeah, and it's, you know, you talked about Underdog, if you're playing a best ball league, probably better there because, again, when you draft these rookie wide receivers, they end up going a little bit lower on Underdog, wide receiver 48. Fantastic. That's where I would prefer to have him just because.

If the process is a ramp up period where he's better the second half than the first half, then as a redraft draft pick, he didn't really help on the value of where you drafted him for those first few weeks. You might have to move on. Whereas on Underdog, you're getting the full season. You know, if you don't make the playoffs and redraft, you know, you don't play those last few weeks. But you get the last three weeks with everybody. So you're in the playoffs from week one on on Underdog.

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playing best ball over on Underdog Fantasy. If you are new to the space, best ball is tremendous. You make your draft. And you can do a fast draft. You can do a slow draft. They have big time tournaments over there. If you draft with me, you can do the slowest draft of all time. Oh, no. You got a slow one going on? Oh, my goodness. It's funny because I'm right in the middle of the round.

One half of the draft is fast. And then as soon as it goes the other direction, it's like, well, I'll see you in three days. But so you draft your squad and then the computer just puts your starting roster together, whoever does the best. And so, of course, that has, you know,

some nuance a little bit different than a season long redraft. But Jason, you have a tip for a foot claim. A tip today we're talking about value stacks. We've spoken of stacks and not reaching on quarterbacks and a bunch of other things, but I really wanted to illustrate the value of a value stack and what that is. But I want to talk to the Borgogum here for a second. Kyle, you are in this draft with me. Oh, no. Is Kyle slowing it down? No, no, Kyle's not slowing it down. Kyle's fantastic. No way. But in this value stack.