ADP Price Check + Improved Offenses, Counting is Hard - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/23

I have them just outside of the top 24. Andy's kind of right in the middle at RB20. Jason, you really believe that Breece Hall can pay off that fourth round draft price? Yeah, I mean, it's like you just said a bit ago, you know, running backs, rookie running backs with an ADP in the top five rounds, 64% of them outperform their ADP. I think that Breece Hall is an excellent running back. And while there is plenty of...

question marks and conversations regarding Michael Carter, his involvement, Zach Wilson. The reality is, I think Brees Hall will have a handful of games with a breakaway touchdown. And when you do that, like, he's going to have enough volume. They drafted him to use him to have him be the clear, you know, lead back. And so over the course of the season, he's going to get enough volume, even if it's inefficient, to be decent. Not great.

Decent. But when you then sprinkle in, if he gets a few of those 40, 50-yard breakaway touchdowns, all of a sudden, he's a top five running back a few weeks while he's got volume on the other week. So I really do like Brees Hall. I love him at that value. If he's running back 22, I can get behind that. Yeah, if you're going to take a running back in the dead zone, pick a young stud that could break out. And here's an interesting.

stat here about Michael Carter because that's a thing that is holding Breece Hall into the fourth, which just one of the variables because Zach Wilson and the Jets are also. They're their own thing. Right. Like, Noggy was what? Early second round pick, maybe late in the first of his rookie year because we believed in the Steelers. Michael Carter, his third down role last year in 14 games, Carter totaled three receptions on third down.

Ty Johnson was actually the main player on third downs. We also know Zach Wilson just refused to throw it to his running backs. So that also has to be baked into what you think of Brees Hall because his pass catching is electric. But will he get enough? Will he get enough actual volume? Do you have a closing comment here? Yeah, I don't expect Brees Hall to be some, you know, top six running back in his rookie year. But I think he will continue to ascend as the years go on.

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Jason Moore. Yeah, I mean, that's on me. And I have a really, really, really, really hard time with Dak Prescott. The guy who, all he does, all Dak Prescott does is be a top 12 guy. And you said, nah, not this year, man. I did. I said, uh, not this year, man. That's exactly right. And I don't like it. When you, I look to imagine when you're doing your stats, not this year man, click. That's right. Well, and I did.

Turn and I looked at the framed photo of Dak on my desk when I said that. Okay. So it was like to him. You know, it was kind of apologetic. You know, it was like, hey, not this here, man. I mean, look, we love the doctor. Yeah, Dr. Schultz. Dalton Schultz is an interesting mid-round tight end. C.D. Lamb. I love C.D. Lamb. My guy from last year who has an opportunity to be a breakout superstar this year. We've got a report that Dak Prescott could be running more because there's.

If you remember the injury, his foot was not pointing the correct direction. Regardless of how many times he slammed it on the ground to try and make it correct. The skin bag held the foot on the body. That was it. If it wasn't for the bag of skin around the body, that foot was. Our medical doctors have said that is the correct terminology. The skin bag around the foot held it together.

Well, he had a devastating ankle injury. He came back. I thought he played pretty well. And now we know that he might be running a little bit more. So, Dak Prescott, let's play the ADP game first, and then we'll talk about it. Well, you, I've been guessing first. And I feel so like Dak, got a really hard time pegging him where he's going right now. I would have you go first on this one. I want to see where you put him. So last year, Dak Prescott finished as the quarterback seven. We're talking about.

you know, 4,400 yards, 37 passing touchdowns, Jason. Your QB 13 of this season is coming hot off of 37 passing touchdowns. And now he might run more. Jack, you just, he keeps getting disrespected, I think, over and over and over. How many of those touchdowns were to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup? Oh, I don't care about Amari Cooper. Okay. Let's go. Eight was the answer for Cooper.

Yeah, that's fine. I do not care about it. Mark Cooper. Jack Prescott. Go. All right. Because he can't possibly find a new receiver. Well, they're all gone. They're all dead. I'll say that DAC is going in the eighth round. So for an exact number, I'll go 805. 805. I'm going to go 904. Okay. What is DAC's ADP? 706, QB8. Whoa, QB8.

Wow, so people are not worried at all. Good work. Good work, fantasy football players. So let me ask you, because you seem to be much more in line with the average draft position, the consensus here. Are you genuinely not worried about the fact that you have lost, you know, Michael Gallup, his injury was super late. He's not going to be ready to start the season.

Amari Cooper is gone. Those are two massive pieces. You're replacing it with like James Washington, rookie Tolbert. But you have no worries there? Like his first name is rookie. Yeah, rookie Tolbert. That's what they call him around Dallas.

I am not as, look, those are absolutely fair concerns, but they do not worry me for Dak Prescott. Like I said, the numbers were fantastic last year. And Dak Prescott, you have to go back a ways, but to start out his career, like the guy was, as a rookie, was the quarterback six. And if my memory serves correct, his leading receiver that year was Cole Beasley. And then he followed that up as a QB10. And one of those years was like his leading receiver was a completely washed.

Des Bryant. Dak Prescott is good. Dak Prescott makes the pieces around him good. Is Dalton Schultz really that great of a tight end? Early on, he was doing it with Jason Witten. Dak Prescott are getting it done. I think that Dak is so good, he makes the rest of his players good, and you have a true top-tier talent with C.D. Lamb. Talk of unleashing Tony Pollard as a pass catcher this year.

That's a little bit rich, but because that's one spot of where I have him ranked. But Dak Prescott, in the range of outcomes, is maybe he actually runs in six touchdowns again, and he's back to being, paying off his ADP easily. Can you imagine a situation in the seventh round? You're on the, you're on the clock where you're going to pull the trigger on drafting Dak Preska in the seventh? I, there absolutely is.

Unfortunately, for as much as I love Dak Prescott, what is the, is Jalen Hertz in our ADP guessing game? I had the, I had the exact same question because he's the only reason that could push me off of Dak. Well, not the only reason, Mr. Trey Lance, just confirmed that starting role and then we're all back in. But Jalen Hertz, I would prefer Calder, Dak. What is Jalen Hertz ADP? He's QB7-703 right before him. Okay. Oh.

Okay, so there you go. Good for you, fantasy community. Getting that right. Except stop it. You know, of my, you know, mid to later round quarterback targets, it includes Dak and Jalen Hertz. So let's say, you know, Jalen Hertz gets selected and there's a 49ers crazy fan that took Trey Lance in there. Then, yeah, absolutely. I would be happy with Dak there. So the running, you know, the report.

coming out that he's going to run more, which is important. He's healthy now and able to do that. It was a huge part of his game. That is everything to me because you brought up like, oh, you could do it with Cole Beasley or a washed Dak Prescott. He's got enough weapons. Yes. Yes. Goodness gracious. It's early. If he runs, then that's fine. When those.

were his leading receivers, you know, his first four years before the injured season two years ago, he was averaging over 300 rushing yards and five touchdowns every year. Sure. Now this last year where he was good, he was, you know, the quarterback seven, he only had 146 rushing yards and one touchdown. If he rushes like he did last year but loses those pieces and I just don't see him returning.

Obviously, if the injury is healed and they're saying we're going to get DAC running again and he's going to be a 303 guy on the ground, then he will pay off. And I still think I would not take him in the seventh because there are good important pieces. They're good shots that I would rather draft at other positions. Next on the list, we've got a tight end.

Mr. George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Before we sing his praises, let's just, we'll play the ADP game. We have, we have him as the consensus tight end six. Jason poo-pooing George Kittle. Do you feel good about this? Tight-in seven? Uh, you want to, you want to update those statistics? Yeah, um, the, the reality is, uh, I, I love George Kittle's talent.

But there's a quarterback change here. Debo is the one. If you look at the games in which Debo played, you know, and you compare those with George Kittle, when Debo's gone, Kittle is an all-star. Sure. It's just an unstoppable force. But it's been a lot of that. And then you've got a factor in the injury risk. I am fine drafting Kittle well ahead of the Titan 7. This is just...

happens to be where, you know, when I stat these guys out for the season, what happened? Because Kittles never been a touchdown guy, right? And sure. That just significantly hurts you. You figure if, uh, Trey Lance comes in, expect him to throw fewer touchdowns than, than Kitt, uh, than Gropolo did. And you divvy those up. You know, obviously if, if Debo is, uh,