Fantasy Football 2018 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

catch away from being in the title game. I don't think things are going to change very much for this roster. So then do you believe that he can be as efficient as he was last year? Probably not. But I think he'll compensate for that in kind of a replication of the second half utilization, which went up. Proportionally, him and Ingram. He got more of the carries. He got a lot more in the playoffs. And I think that they're going to use him. The big number that everybody's afraid of yet should be excited about was that 7.7 yards per touch.

You're afraid of it because nobody's ever done that for their career and nobody's ever going to do that for their career. And you like it because that means you're a special, special player. So you guys, Jason, you've got him the lowest, you got him at nine. I don't really take issue with anybody who doesn't want to buy into my narrative. I just believe in him. Your narrative in that article was fantastic, which is basically you laid out the case for why his volume should and will go up.

And I really like that. Because that's what you need for Camara to replicate what he did last year. He needs a little bit more volume. And my issue, the reason I've got him lowest, I've got him at nine, is because I don't have to project any of the other guys that I've got ahead of him.

for some kind of magical increase in volume. And volume is the most predictable stat that we have, especially for running backs to predict success in fantasy. It's not touchdowns. It's not utilization in passing game versus being a goal lineback. It's how many times do they get to touch the ball? And while I love Alvin Kamara, he was my bold prediction last year to be a top three rookie running back. I really like the talent.

And he could absolutely, that's where I said, I don't blame you for having him at five. I've got him ranked at nine because in order for him to meet kind of what projections I'm giving, he has to have a huge workload increase. And, you know, I hope it happens, but I'm not going to bank on it. Yeah, there's only two running backs in the top 10 of fantasy points that weren't in the top 10 in touches.

Yeah. No, was Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamen. And that's because excluding his rushing stats, he would have been the wide receiver 21 in PPR leagues. Yeah. That's, that's, he's a, he doesn't feel as cozy as you're running back one if you draft him to be it the way that a four net or Zieg or Bell or Johnson, any of those bigger, more guaranteed touch players. But I do think he will perform to that level. He obviously has to stay healthy being a smaller back, can't have concussion issues. He got banged up last year once with a concussion.

There's a lot of confidence I have in Sean Payton to use them. But if Mark Ingram had as good of a year, it's still possible. And you don't have to deal with an Ingram in the backfield of all those other guys. So I definitely understand if you want to tick them down the list a little bit. Mike, you have them at 7, Jason 9. Our number 9 running back on our early running back rankings, Dalvin Cook. Delvin Cook injured last season.

But before he was injured, average 15 fantasy points per game was excellent. A bit of a surprise for those that maybe we were worried about his combine performance. But my confidence in Dalvin Cook comes down to how good I think this team is going to be. And if you're going to be a top five team in your conference and this guy can catch the ball, this guy can run the ball, and you're going to have to worry about Kirk Cousins and those wide receivers, I just think the opportunities are going to be through the roof for them. Great defense.

A lot of games that they're going to lean on him. Is that pretty much why you guys have him in the same boat? Jason 8. Mike, you have them at 11. Yeah. Look, when he played last year, he was great. This is a matter of if he was healthy and we knew he was healthy. He could be higher than this in the rankings. This is all a matter of how does he come back from that injury. This is an injury where at his age and at the recovery timeline that he's been given because of how early that injury happened in the year, he should be ready to go full strength by week one.

So that's kind of what I'm projecting him forward. And if that's the case, the coaching staff has already talked about he's the guy. They're not going to shy away because of the injury. They're going to give him the work. And on a team with so many weapons, you're not going to be able to just stack the box. You got Kirk Cousins and Kindle right now screaming out of the slot. You know, I.

That would be great. The new offensive tactic to throw the D off. But no, I mean, you saw, there were a lot of people worried after the combine, but he did what he did in college, which was electrify, break off big runs. You get used fantastically in the passing game. And I think the offense gets better. He's back. He's the workhorse. And I don't believe this is projecting a new workload for him.

It's merely projecting health. Pretty comfy at number nine. But when the question for Davin Cook is, what does the receiving game look like? Yes. Because, I mean, last year in his three and a half games, he had, you know, 11 receptions on 16 targets. In the first three games, Jerich McKinnon took 10 targets. Jerry McKinn is not there. Latavius Murray is the current backup. And Latavius Murray did not get targets in the, in the Minnesota's passing game. So is Dalvo Cook all of a sudden soak up?

everything they had planned for McKinnon last year? Probably not everything, but it certainly sounds like a bump up. All right. Number 10. Shady, you're still in the top 10. Number 10 overall, LaShaul McCoy. Last year, he was, he was pretty darn good. 287 carries 1138 yards, six touchdowns. Caught 59 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns on 77 targets. Into the year is the RB7. We've got them at 10 right now.

This is a product of liking other teams and situations and players more than what we like in Buffalo. No, not for me. What is it for you? This is a shady scare for me. I recognize he's great. Don't throw shade on the shady one, man. Look, last year I didn't see anything that said he lost a step, right? He looked great, but he is entering 30. He has crossed the threshold of carries where you have seen a history of other great running backs.

who fall off. And there was nothing in two years ago's film to say that DeMarco Murray was done. He looked great two years ago. But as soon as some injuries started creeping up into Murray at this age, all of a sudden, it was difficult. And it impacted his ability to produce. So you combine that with the bills looking like, who's the quarterback? What's the offense going to be like? He's older. My risk rating for him is going to be high. I just don't know how those variables are different than what they've been.

Like they've had quarterback problems. They've had offensive line problems. They'd have offense problems for three years. Anyways, fourth and then seventh and then, you know, he'll be topped. It's been a slow trend downward. And I mean slow because it's not like he's falling off anywhere. But he has to, you know, trended to, you know, downward the last two years. Now he's also a year older. I mean.

30 is usually that scary age for a running back. Now that Gordon wishes he could do what Shady McCoy did last year. Absolutely. I'm not saying Shady had a bad year. I'm just saying there are markers that scare me. And that's why. Would you count that as trending down the last two years when he went from 16th to fourth? Well, his efficiency did go down. I mean, this was his technically his worst year in a while.

But you also have, it's pointed out, I believe this was Mike Clay pointed this out, the percentage of Shady McCoys carries from shotgun, where he's great. And, you mean, two years, three years ago, 67%. Two years, 43%. Last year, 17%. Right. You have a coaching staff that seems to want to force their agenda upon the players instead of really utilizing the strengths of their players. But got themselves to the playoffs.

So why would they change? I mean, why would they change? It's working. He had his lowest yards per carry of his entire career. So those are the markers. But he's great. He's used in the passing game. He's a goal line guy. He's fantastic. I think if Shady saw himself in the double digits here. Chip on the shoulder. He'd shake his head at you. I believe he would. Watch this. Yeah. All right. That is it for the top 10. Mike, you want to run them back? All right. We got number one.

Levion Bell. Number two, Todd Gurley. Three is David Johnson, four, Ezekiel Elliott, five, Kreme Hunt, six, Melvin Gordon, seven, Leonard Fernette, number eight, Alvin Camara, number nine, Dalvin Cook, and number 10, the Shadiest of the shady Lashon McCoy. All right, McQuay. All right, we are going to take a couple seconds, jump into the mailbag. Somebody give me a Kindle Wright mailbag drop. Mailbag. Did you go with words? I just shouted. No, I just shouted, but then I followed it with a mailbag shout.

Brooks is losing his mind over there. If you have a question for the show, you can be featured in the mailbag segment. 302464 TFFB is the phone number. Screaming out of the slot. You can also submit a question on the website. Just screaming. Just screaming out of the slot. We're going to start with a voicemail. Hey, ballers. This is James calling you from across the valley in Gilbert. I love the show, but I have a question about Dynasty. I'm taking over a Dynasty team this year. It's going to be my first year doing a rookie draft.

How do you guys look at valuing draft picks versus players? I was offered a trade for Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones, and I'd be giving up the 103 pick. I'm just not sure how to focus on what's the best way to value this picks. Thanks, guys. Love the show. Now, I would say that is your league partner is looking at someone who's not sure how to value rookie picks and hoping to pull one over on you. Not that I dislike either of those players. I am on the side that Aaron Jones.

will be the running back for the Green Bay Packers. But the actual value when you're just talking in a dynasty league, the 103, is a lot higher than these two players combined. Right or wrong? I'm not saying that the 103, whoever you take there, is a guarantee more than Marlon Mack or Aaron Jones. Just saying the perceived value in these actual rookie drafts is much higher than that. Yeah, I think it's fair. I would agree with that.

This question comes in from Zach in Seattle. I play in the league where the vast majority of owners are lifelong fans of the Seahawks. Players from Seattle are consistently overvalued as a result. How do I use this to my advantage? Oh, do you see this? He also said P.S. Brooks is number one. Ooh. What is? Not based on our Dynasty League finish. But I get what you're saying. Just, just. Yeah. So how do you take advantage of a league where everyone likes Seahawks? Here's what you don't do. You don't.

Get too cute with it. You don't go after the Seahawks players and try to draft them a little bit higher than they do because they'll pay up later. What you do is you take advantage of the fact that they're making foolish picks and you just stick with the plan. Draft tier-based and grab better value because someone's grabbing Tyler Lockett in the sixth round. Yep. And, you know, the other thing I would say to steal all of them from you guys is...

On the waiver wire, that's where if you can scoop up someone early before they break out. Yeah, I was just going to say with one of your last picks, if I'm in this league, honestly, I might grab, I might draft Darbo. Yeah. And see, maybe a week one breakout happens because they'll pay through the nose for that player. Yeah. Other people aren't already drafting. Yeah. Yes, of course. Home town players. What's the, what's the tight in there as well? Vinette. Oh, yes. Yes.

hometown players are great throw-ins for trades, too. Because if somebody, if you've got to trade that's right on the cusp and I'm always a big fan of the two-for-one, three-for-one deals where you get the best player back, if you're throwing, you know, one running back plus Darbo or plus some player that, you know, lock it, then they're like, oh, I get my guy back. I get one to root for my hometown team. All right, tie it in question from Oliver in Spring, Texas.

What tight end has the highest upside who has the safest floor? All right. Let's say that again. What tied in has the highest upside? Okay, so that's one question. All right. And then who has the safest floor? Grong. And that's out of these players. Trey Burton, George Kittle, Luke Wilson. Highest upside's got to be Trey Burton. I'll answer the question with this. Trey Burton has the highest upside. And Trey Burton has the safest floor. Yeah, I agree with that.

I do too. I do as well. I think there's a lot more question marks on Kittle and Wilson. Agreed. All right. Brandon and Connecticut, hey guys, love the show. Who do I keep? Lev Bell is a first rounder, or do I keep on a feeling in the sixth? That's, that's. Levin the first hooked on a feeling in the six. That's, that's 12 team league, one keeper. You got to trade that spot. So here's how I like to do these.

Mike, you were giving me the finger. As in the pointer finger. The pointer finger things. To say you had something to say. Not being rude. Would you like me to finish or do you want to? Go ahead. Not too excited. All right. I like to think of these things and evaluate them as who would I end up drafting in that first round, hypothetically. And do I like them plus Thielen versus Love Bell? So in this league and the six rounder in there. But in this league with one keeper.