Fantasy Football 2018 - Early RB Rankings Part 1

Why Lev over Todd Gurley? Yes, is why Lev over Todd Gurley? The reason for me, like Jason said, they're all number one. We all have Love Bell number one. The reason for me has to do a total touch guarantee. Yep. Not that I think Gurley's going to not touch the ball a ton this year. I've seen Love Bell with the high touch counts for multiple seasons on a great offense with all the foundational pieces there. And you just know what you're going to get with Levi-on Bell. So I'm leaning into that 321 carries over 279 and just expecting

Leve Bell to do what he does. Most running back touches in the league, over 400 touches last year for Levyon Bell. He was the only running back with over 300 carries. And there were three running backs that had over 100 targets. That would be Christian McCaffrey, Levy on Bell, and Alvin Camara. Levy on Bell had over 300 carries and more targets than Alvin Camara. He is the number one running back.

Yeah, and the thing is, is we have enough history here to show that he should be, right? Todd Gurley was drafted to be a stud, looked like he was going to be a stud, then he had a terrible year, which now in hindsight we blame completely on Jeff Fisher, but you have seen history that has been up and down. But we give Fisher no credit for his first year. Right, exactly. It's been up and down, whereas Lev Bell.

is as consistent as humanly possible. And if you look at the consistency charts in the UDK and go to the consistency percentages, there's no one even close at the running back position to what Levi-on-Bel does. When he plays, he's great and always has been as soon as he became the guy. And he's still young. So I don't think there's any question here. It's not a tough decision for me. When I'm on the clock at the 101, I don't actually go, hmm.

What are the upsides? Could Gurley outproduce him this year? Absolutely. By how much? You know. But it's, the ceiling is, I would say, identical with both of these guys. The floor to me is very different, barring injury. So Leveau caught 85 passes last year. 7.1 receptions or targets per game. Total yardage, Gurley outmatched them through the air. Big plays. But.

7.1 targets per game, number one in the league in terms of running backs. Does the lack of Todd Haley concern either of you for the game plan? Or is this? Because it's more of the same. Because Big Ben is the quarterback, it doesn't change things for me. It's like Peyton Manning offenses. I didn't care who the OC was for Peyton Manning. I know what he's going to do. And I know how.

he's going to run the offense. Yeah, and the new offensive coordinator is, you know, was the quarterback coach, same system. They're not going to change what is working so well. You mean they're not bringing Steve Sarkeesian in? Right. Oh, my good. He was almost my pineapple. Oh, on the pizza? Yeah. Oh, okay. Like, it doesn't belong on the pizza. Yeah. Sarkisian doesn't belong. He was calling plays with the Falcons. Yeah, but that would insinuate that you also really like Sarks. No, no, no, you can.

format it either way. I'm just, I was leaving it as pineapple doesn't belong. So now the Todd Gurley side of the equation. Yes, we do have them as our consensus number two. The Todd Gurley side of the equation to me, look, he is super talented. You saw that. You see him used in the right fashion. We were all wanting him to be utilized in the passing game, and that's great. But what stands out to me as a possible regression point is the receiving touchdowns.

Last season, he had six receiving touchdowns. That is a very high number, and it's not a number that you see a lot of running backs repeat in any kind of, hey, year after year after year. Could he get more than 13 rushing touchdowns? I mean, possibly. Yeah, he could. In that offense, he could do it. But my point is, I expect Todd Gurley's total touchdown number.

to come down this season. The same way that going into last year, I thought David Johnson wasn't going to get, you know, 20 touchdowns from the coming off that 2016 season. So that is my worry with Todd Gurley is his touchdown volume. I realize that the offense looks good. He looks great. The workload will be there. He's the number two. But I do think his touchdowns come down. It's not just the passing touchdowns. It's the passing yardage.

Right. His rookie year, he was 7.6, or I apologize, rookie year 9.0 yards per reception. Sophomore year when it was bad, 7.6. He jumped up to 12.3 yards per reception. That's not a sustainable number. And if you watch the Tennessee Titans game, when Todd Gurley had the huge reception that inflated things and a couple of the big plays, he will still get the targets. He had the fourth highest target percentage for running backs. He had a higher target market share than Duke Johnson.

And this is Todd Gurley. Yeah, I trust McVeigh to be creative enough to get him the ball in the passing game and get him in space. But you're right. Those are a couple points there where Lev Bell was targeted more, had a decent, what, 150 fewer yards through the air than Gurley. So that could come down a little bit. Gurley was technically the most consistent running back last year, even over Leveon Bell. Both of them only busted one time.

on the entire year based on our consistency. And, yeah, 52.5 receiving yards per game. That's a ton. You're getting that David Johnson-like performance from the year before from Todd Gurley. He's our consensus number two. Anything else you want to add on Gurley? Nope. We're going to start to get into the much more debatable group here. And I think we'll start with that debate right here. David Johnson. David Johnson is our consensus number three.

We got warm up the band. Get the band ready. Yeah, Jason, you noticed, didn't sing, and I know why. He hasn't ranked four, not three. Mike and I have them at three, and David Johnson returns from injury. He played half a game last year, and here we are. The number one running back in fantasy in 2016, by the way, these rankings are based on a half point per reception scoring format. You could just say the right scoring format. I could, I could, but I don't want to, you know, alienate our listeners.

who play in totally acceptable but inferior scoring systems. Like me. Like Brooks. Yeah, we still love you, Brooks. Brooks. Full PPR. Hey, don't chime in again. Wow, she said that with like a. Oh, yeah. That was like a political party he's supporting over there. So David Johnson. Jason, you'll have to explain why you have him and. All the way down at number four. Ezekiel Elliott flip-flopped. Sure. Kind of how we described the differences between Bell and Gurley. But David Johnson, coming off the injury, healthy.

The story for me, if you have to write the narrative for David Johnson, is he's going to get the ball a ton. Is the team good enough to get him in a position to score? I don't worry about touches with David Johnson, barring health issues, which we always presume health in these situations. I don't worry about touches. I worry about touchdowns. Is that fair, Mike? That is completely fair. The volume will be there in 2016, though. I mean, just remember. Let's remember. Let's go back in time.

Oh, do we got a flashback button? I don't. But 20 total touchdowns, over 2,100 yards from scrimmage. The thing that has some hope for David Johnson, I mean, Sam Bradford, when he's healthy, he can be a good quarterback. But the Cardinals have spent off-season money to upgrade their offensive line. Justin Pugh, Andre Smith. They've brought guys in.

Are those guys the answer? I'm not sure, but at least they're addressing the situation. And if the offensive line can be strong, and the new Cardinals appear to be trying to set themselves up to be defense and David Johnson. So the volume would be there, a player with 80 receptions. I mean, that's ridiculous. So he's going to get the ball, but the 16 rushing touchdowns is not, it's not obtainable.

It is important that people remember. David Johnson, the receiving aspects to his game are a, they're a feature of his game. They're not in.

Accident. Like they target him in the passing game because you should target him in the past game. Larry Fitzgerald is the only proven receiver on that team. So David Johnson will very much, I think you can make the argument right now. He is the wide receiver two. The RB1 and the wide receiver two for the Cardinal. Absolutely correct. And he came out of college. You know, he was a wide receiver at one point in time came out. I believe in 2016 Pro Football Focus, when they do their scoring and ranking, their number one, their number one wide receiver ranked.

was David Johnson a running back? So, yeah, you're right, Andy. It's not like, oh, Sean McVeigh came to town and figured out I should get my running back into a scheme. It was much more so of if you're not utilizing David Johnson in the past game. So I'm not worried. Change of offensive coordinator, they're still going to use him there. I completely echo everything you said. The touchdowns themselves are the worry the office as a whole. So number four. Let's move on to number four and then you can explain it in that. Well, that's where I was going. For me, it's not so much a

an argument against David Johnson. It's a reminder of how good Ezekiel Elliott is. Ezekiel Elliott missed games. Ezekiel Elliott was out of shape. He was fat. Oh, have you seen the pictures lately? He's so overweight this. Oh, Jesus. Get your life together, Ezekiel. Accept, except, except. Is that one below the belt? I'm just, I'm saying this. No, I'm not saying that's what I'm saying. I'm saying that's what the people. I see this. I read this. That's what the people are saying. Oh, he's so fat. We're making fun of you, Jay.

That's what we were doing. He was making fun of you, and then he asked me if it was below the belt, and I said, yeah, we didn't think that you were being below the belt with Zeke. Okay. But my point is this. Last season, on a per game basis, because you have to go per game with Zeke since he was suspended for several games, he was better than Alvin Kamara. He was right behind Levi-on Bell. I mean, he was 19 points a game and half-point scoring. He was actually ahead.

of Levion Bell in standard scoring, and he comes in rookie year and was unfathomably good. His sophomore year, he's unfathomably good, and he's dropping in ranks. So I'm saying, stop it. I have no worries with Zeke. He has never shown me anything to think he's not consistent. He's not going to get the ball. He's not going to get the touchdowns. And he still has the areas where he could still improve by...

being more involved in the passing game, a lot of Todd Gurley. So I just say, why would I draft David Johnson over, with all the question marks over a Zeke? That's where I stand. First off, there is, I mean, there's the eternal fantasy football debate of Alan Camara or Alvin Kamara. Somehow, Jason did them both in one pronunciation. So a tip of the cap. Thank you. It's tough. I've been training. But here's the numbers for Zeke. He had the one.

outlier game, if you remember, against Denver, where he was nine for eight on the ground. So that means his numbers. Right. In nine games, he had 233 carries, almost 1,000 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. That's almost 110 rushing yards per game. The dude's good. Yeah, I mean, we obviously, Mike and I haven't met four, so we don't have a great departure here. I still lean on the side of...

the reception totals. That's fair. Because the difference between these teams, these question marks you bring up, I mean, yes, you have Dak Prescott, but this was a 9 and 7 Dallas team and an 8 and 8 Cardinal team with similar pieces and maybe 50 more receptions for David Johnson. So that's where I lean. It's splitting hairs. I guess you could also split them on the side of, okay, is he going to stay out of trouble and is David Johnson going to stay healthy? And you have to ask yourself that question.

Fair enough? Yeah. Yeah, I think that's laid up. Before we lay out number five on our top 10. Which feels like a tear break for me. Yes, I would say that. Before we get into number five, we don't want to thank today's sponsor, Fantasy Champs. Look, if you haven't, if you're just tuning in and you haven't heard of Fantasy Champs, well, shame on you. Shame on you for tuning in this late. Shame on you for never hearing something. How dare you?

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