Risk vs Reward, Love Letters, LIVE in Dallas

and finds a way there where he can't find it all over the field. I don't buy in. I'm with all the booze. I think that you're talking about probably a 70-30 chance that you're disappointed in paying a third round price for Derek Henry. So that's how I'm putting myself on the record in the case between the thickness and the quickness. Oh, yeah. You're going with the quickness? I'm team thickness. I've got Derek Henry finishing.

ahead of Dionne Lewis and fantasy points. I'm the only person in the known universe. At least in the audience. Oh, they're calling for a water bet. Oh, water bet. Agreed. Agreed. The quickness and the thickness. That's what they call you and I, too. And I'll take the path right in the middle, 50-50. Yeah, that's fair. I can't be wrong. That's the Jason Moore special. Getting the fence right in the cross. I want to get to this live mailbag. So we got one more each. All right. Let's hear it. I want to talk about.

Mark Ingram, because there is risk. Step one, it's called a four-game suspension. Not going to score a bunch in those four games. No, he will score approximately zero points. Last year, weeks 15 through 19, 19 means that they played in the playoffs. Just want to make sure people keep the threat. Camara was getting more touches. I know that people are bringing that up. I will say it's not a lot. However,

In that important 10 zone, Ingram got one opportunity to Camara's four. Ingram was getting squeezed out of those goal line opportunities. Ingram is 28. He's on a contract year. Do they squeeze the last drop or do they move on? A player who is being suspended for the first four games is being drafted at the beginning of the fifth round as the 24th running back. The Saints have a buy week in week six.

Heading into week seven, you could play Mark Ingram once. No, thanks. That's pretty close to half of your fantasy season. Now, here is the reward for Mark Ingram. This isn't the first time. Sell me, Mike. It's not the first time we've seen a short season for Mark Ingram, and that did not stop him from being a dominant fantasy running back. 2014. Only 13 games, running back 15. 2015, only 12 games.

Running back 13. That would be a clear reward if you're drafting the running back 24. And I want to talk about these opportunities from week 10 on. Camara, 47 targets. Ingram, in that time, 32 targets. I mean, that puts him on a 73 target pace. He's still getting opportunity, especially in the past game. He was still seeing...

Double-digit carries in nearly every single game. He was the running back sixth last year. Now, here's the reward I really want to talk about. On this show, we talk about second half players. Frequently, we all know because we play fantasy football, guys that show up on championship teams frequently have fresh legs. Mark Ingram is going to have the freshest.

The freshest of the fresh. So fresh and so clean. So fresh. How about a player who has been a top 10 running back for the past two seasons that heading into week seven has only played one game that's very interesting? So you're spinning his complete absence as a positive. You have? Yes, actually I am. And I know that there's risk because you've got to carry him. Granted, you're not taking zeros from Mark Ingram because you are prepared for the suspension.

You have to throw out the end of season ranking for Mark Ingram and just look at what he can do for you in the second half of the season. Mark Ingram and the fifth, it is rich. But Mike. But Mike. Yeah, the public opinion. The fact that he was the running back six, but also he was on PEDs. Maybe they helped. Now he's not on them.

Maybe. That certainly weighs into the risk. I will go revise my notes. Thank you, public opinion. You brought a good point to the table. You're welcome, I did it. But Mark Ingram, if you draft appropriately... Where would you take him? Where would you take him? Have you heard a ninth round? 10th round. Where do you want him? Oh, 55. Can I get an 11? This guy's trying to get a 55. I would take Mark Ingram.

I would take him in the sixth round. Whoa. Whoa. I think that's, I will say this. I think you're going to need to take him in this. Someone is taking him around there. And it will be me. All right. Jason? Do you want me to hit it? Yeah, let's bring it home. You got your third guy? Oh, I sure do. Carry on. You talked, you talked to Andy about.

Alvin Camara and the breakout season, the B season, and the Sony Michelle could be that. I firmly... You are waving the flag for this man. I am waving the flag, planting the flag, and climbing the flag. I'm going to jump over to that thing like Mario.

How do you have him in the risk reward when you have them at 100% reward? No, I don't have them at 100% reward. Here, I'll lay out the risk. The risk is very clear and obvious. It's like candy. What's the problem? What's the problem? It's all delicious. It's 100% reward. There's no risk with candy. Look, here's a couple of easy-to-see risk options. Legerat Blunt.

Theo Riddick. You have a goal line back that they just signed this off season, who's a proven touchdown machine. Why would you make Caryon Johnson the short yardage back or the goal line back? You have Theo Riddick. Theo Riddick, over the last both three and four seasons, whichever way you look at it, is the second player. Well, there's different data. He is the second player in the NFL. I'll allow it. Thank you, Mike.

He ranks second in the NFL in receptions for the running back position. If you're talking four years, the only player ahead of him is Levi-on-Bell. So Theo Riddick is going to catch the ball. Legerick is going to get the short yardage. Where does Carry-on Johnson find success? And for that matter, where does any running back for the Detroit Lions find success? They have the longest drought of a hundred-yard rusher.

They have not been successful at running the ball. All of these things present the flags that say... They miss Joyke Bell. That's what I mean. Yeah, so here's the thing. All of those reasons are clear reasons why Carry On Johnson carries risk. What I love about that is that they push him down, right? They push him far. It's not going to cost you as much as it's going to cost Sony Michelle.

Sony Michelle's in the fifth round, Carryon Johnson. You're going to get him in the seventh round. Are you? You were like a week ago. I mean, I'm beating this drum, but keep it quiet, people. Here's the reality as to why I believe so much in Carry On Johnson. He is a great running back, and he is the best, outside of Sequin, he is the best three down back.

He is, I mean, just like last season, when you looked at Alvin Camara and, you know, he was one of my favorite guys, you know, in our bold prediction. I said he's going to be a top three rookie running back, even though there was like six guys going ahead of him. The reason was pass catching. 100% because of past catching. And yeah, theoretics there. But you know what else that shows? Maybe, maybe it just shows that, oh.

Matthew Stafford throws to the running back a whole heck of a lot, and Carion only has to beat out Theo Riddick. Theo Riddick is not some scary proposition. I mean, to beat out. Is anyone really afraid? I hope he's not here. Is anyone afraid, is anybody afraid of Garrett Blunt being too good for Carriott Johnson to bypass? No. I'm not. They traded up for him in the second round. And.

They have the best offensive line that they have had in the entire Matthew Stafford era. And that's not just my opinion or your opinion. Pro football focus, who does all the scouting, all the reporting, all the projecting on their offensive line. They just released their rankings. They gave them, you know, a top half line and said that this is the best offensive line that Matthew Stafford has ever had. When you trade up and you say, I'm going to focus on the run, I'm going to trade up to get a talented guy in the second.

I mean, this was the running back Alabama wanted, and he turned them down and went to Auburn. He is super talented, and yes, you might have a slow start. You did with Alvin Kamara. A lot of people got them off the waivers in week three. Hold on to carry on. I believe, and I'm planting that flag. The Kareem Hunt type of season? Yes, 90%. The first 90%. What? What? 90.

I can't even look at you. 90? Wow. That's bold, my friend. Someone said that's wrong. You did something wrong. You follow your heart. I'll follow mine. Yeah. Yeah, we'll see. I'm going to bring up Robbie Anderson before we get into our live Dallas mailbag. Now, Robbie Anderson, we don't talk about him a lot. He's got a bit of a Mark Ingram problem to start the year, potentially.

Now, he is not in legal trouble anymore from the legal side. Now, from the NFL side, it's very likely that he will get a suspension in line with the personal conduct policy. Maybe it's a game, maybe it's two games. He obviously says he thinks it'll be zero games. That's what I would say. That's what he would do. He would do zero. If I were the NFL. Risk one is that you miss a game or two of Robbie Anderson. Risk two, flash in a pan, one trick, pony type of guy.

He runs down the field and catches the football. He doesn't have a diverse enough route tree. Another problem might be. You didn't really have other options, right? Quincy and Noon while coming back. Troll Pryor is there. Took a lot of injuries for him. I was waiting for you, Mike, and you let him down. Oh, I didn't hear the Trial Pryor was there. Dumpster Fier. Trial Pryor does not get singing anymore. He has to earn his song. Which means that Troll Pryor does not get singing anymore.

Right. But the reward to me for Robbie Anderson is that we have the warts that are. He's stuck on the Jets. The quarterback situation, you don't know what it is. And he's got, you know, concerns with how good the offense is even going to be. But over a six-game span in the middle of the season when he was actually playing, I mean, maybe you don't realize this. Six straight starts inside the top 24. Three top 12 finishes, 25 years old.

Seven touchdowns last year, six of which were 20 plus yards, which was more than the Jets had as a team the year before. That takes elite level talent. That takes elite level ability. You turned Josh McCown into one of the best deep passers in football. That seems like something hard to do. And so the reward is that what you saw on the field is talent. Talent trumps everything else. And you're going to get a player who, when he's on the field for...

14 games, he has eight touchdown potential, one of the best fly route runners in all of football. And so for me, I think that the reward is going to outweigh the risk for Robbie Anderson. I don't think you have to pay too much and you have possible high upside. And you're not talking about a guy like projecting Deshaun Jackson to return to form. You've got a guy that's 25 years old. He's in the prime of his career. And I'm not worried about Hansen or in Noonwa. I really am not. Or prior.

It's Robbie Anderson. And so whether it's McCown or Darnold, whatever the case may be, I'm actually a Robbie Anderson fan. Do you guys have thoughts on Robbie? You have him ranked at 19. So what is your odds must be heavily in his favor, your handicap? Yeah. No, I do. I have 65, 35. Hmm. I thought it would be higher. Yeah, no, I. A little disappointed. And that comes from not knowing if he's going to get one, two, three game suspension, whatever that may be. So any other thoughts on Robbie?

I believe in Quincy and Nunei. I do believe in the talent of Robbie Anderson, but like I said, it took a lot of magic to get him into the position to succeed. He did succeed when given the opportunity. Can he hold on to it? All right. So in summary, who were your three guys, Jason? You had Houston, Houston. Houston Dallas. I had Deontza Foreman and Will Fuller, along with Carry on Johnson.

I am Michel the Fitness Consiglieri. Robbie Anderson and Derek Henry and Mike. Jerich McKinnon, Tyreek Hill, Mark Ingram. All right, Dallas, if you're ready. Warm up those. It's very important that you compete when it comes to the mailbag drop. We want to invite Brad Evans to come join us for the mailbag. Paging Brad Evans. Paging Bradley. Brad Evans. Bradley. I'm going to search for him on Yahoo. And I want your best. Oh, there he is. Dallas, I want your best.