Risk vs Reward, Love Letters, LIVE in Dallas

3.8 yards per carry. When he got volume, yeah, is right. He's never had more than 159 carries. He couldn't seem to keep a job away from Matt Aziata, from Latavius Murray. I think I have some Matt Aziata. He's coming down the field. Lumbering. The 20. The 18. The 15. He might make it.

And he was on a great team last year. He's on an even worse team. Risk, he's being drafted at the 209, the running back 13. And he's too small. Not his wallet. No, not anymore. His wallet is not too small. Thank you for pointing out some of my reward. Is that part of your reward? Why are we so enamored with these guys that are so exciting and unknown? He is a running back in a Shanahan.

system. This running back system does not just go to Kyle Shanahan. His father created a system that was dominant for running backs. He was a legend at taking a jag, making them a superstar, and then trading them away for huge assets because his model for running backs was so productive. Here's the past three-year finishes for a Kyle Shanahan running back one. One. Six. Eight.

And that number one running back, he was on an eight and eight team. That running back eight, he was on a six and ten team. That's a bad team. You're saying it doesn't matter. Exactly. They threatened for the playoffs. San Francisco had the third highest target shared to the running back position. Carlos Hyde went from 64 career targets to 88 in one season. Running backs who finished at the top seven had no fewer than 53 receptions.

It takes target volume and receptions to get into the top. Hyde had 59. McKinnon had 51 receptions last year. He will be the primary pass catcher. Who is his competition? Undrafted Matt Berita. And what did they give Jerich McKinnon? A four-year deal worth $30 million that gives him $12 million this season. He is the second highest paid running back in the NFL behind only Levi-on Bell. And size?

He is almost identically sized to Devanta Freeman, that running back won for Kyle Shanahan that I talked about. So handicap it for us, though. Where do you see it? Sure. Is the risk worth the reward with Jared McKinney? Because the draft price is rising. And the expectations are rising. Like I said, drafted at the 209. And I would put the reward, I'm going to handicap that at 70%.

As in 70% chance you think it works out. I am not ignoring that there is certainly risk, but the opportunity is there, the talent for getting a player in space. You mix that with a head coach who knows how to maximize his running backs. Carlos Seid is not a pass-catching running back, and yet he was this past season and was dominant for fantasy football. And San Francisco, while they're not as good as Minnesota as I project this year,

They're still a heck of a lot better with Jimmy Hansom going to be starting 16 games for them. Yeah, I don't have any. What's up for Jimmy Garoppolo? Yeah. Where did that come from? It's fair. I'll talk about you later. You just stay right there. You don't move. Yeah, I know. I really do. I like that take. I know he's a little bit risky, but I think the risk in McKinnon is overblown from a talent perspective. The risk is injury. Whoa, whoa.

No, I know. No, I know. I used to be anti-McKinnon. But last season, he proved to me in the passing game. Then he was good enough. You know, it took him some time to have his freak athleticism translate to the field. But it did. And so, you know, I don't think there's a chance he just disappoints. I think that there is a chance because of a smaller body. He gets injured, like any running back and could be a bust. You really can't have a much higher percentage than 70% because of the position. 71.

Sure. There are a few other options. There I go on. 28 more options other than that. But, no, I agree. I think that when he made his transition, he went to a team solely because he wanted to prove he could be the workhorse. He always got the opportunity. Well, solely, the only reason. And money. Money helps. Money was in there, too. So who's your guy, Jay?

Give me a risk reward candidate. The first risk reward guy that I'm a little scared to draft, but I think there is phenomenal reward, is wide receiver for the Houston Texans. Will Fuller. Got a lot of Houston fans in the house. Well, we are in Texas, so that makes a little bit of sense. Oh, there's the booze. There we go. Will Fuller has the trifecta of risk that I usually try to avoid.

Okay, he is an expensive draft capital player who is low volume. Can't talk very loud. And has, and has an injury risk. It's Will. It's Will Fuller. Pass me the ball. So. Totally hijacking. He's trying to stay with the point. Hudson? Hudson. The ASMR people are freaking out right now. Oh, yeah. They're loving it. It's the low volume. Yeah, the low volume. No, I get the joke.

I understand where you win. I just, you know, they can't all be winners. Oh, come on. So injury, look, he's never started more than 13 games in the two seasons he's had, only 10 games last year. The volume he has...

He is virtually guaranteed he cannot be the number one on his team. DeAndre Hopkins is clearly the target hard for volume. He hasn't had more than 47 receptions in either of his years, which is a terrible number for fantasy. They call that a Kenny Stills. How dare you? No, it's very fair. That's a Kenny Stills amount of reception. He's got a lot in common. And he's priced at the back of the sixth round, the last 612 right now, which is pretty expensive. There's good players, you know, available.

But the reward is there with Will Fuller for sure. A lot of times, I think because of his injury, because of his injury, people forget who he is, what his pedigree was. He was dominant in college, and he came in running a 4-3-2-40. That's one of the fastest wide receiver times of all time. So you've got a true burner who has shown it on the field. You have to keep in mind, 20 of his 24 games in the NFL.

have been quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, and T.J. Yates. Yeah, literally someone just threw up. We're going to need to clean up, clean up, clean up row three. So, look, last season, he gets a good quarterback. But he was injured to start the year. He wasn't able to build that rapport, so there was a lot of fear. You didn't really draft him. He was irrelevant until all of a sudden he wasn't.

Right? He had four games. Four games with Watson, and all he did was scorch the earth. Now, look, he had seven touchdowns in four games. I think that's like a 28 touchdown pace. Not happening. I would never, ever think that. But the point is, he is a deep threat with a perfect pairing in Watson. Watts play breaks down. Bad offensive line. You scramble. You throw the ball deep.

And there's Will Fuller in the end zone. We've seen wide receiver 1 and wide receiver 2 numbers from Deshaun Jackson, from Mike Wallace, when they weren't necessarily the number one on their team. That's the upside here in Will Fuller. And I think it's a perfect pair where he could very well. I mean, if he ends up this year as a wide receiver 2, you can't be surprised. I mean, the average, the better part of the last decade, the average for NFL,

different NFL teams to have multiple wide receiver twos is at least four four different teams have two wide receiver twos and so i think the houston texans can be one of those with the andre hopkins and will fuller and juju juju is going to be one of those you darn right he is so handicap it you think odds on favor to be more reward than risk with the health of jean watson or no no i would put it

I would put it in the negative. I think it's a 45% chance that he succeeds, 55% chance. Wait, wait. Oh, I didn't even know. That was a pure accident. Uh-huh. But yeah, I am... A happy accident. I'm still a little bit more afraid. All right, who you got, Andy? Leave you met my fitness coniglieri. Michelle. Were you not expecting that? I was not prepared. I'm going with Sony Michelle. I was not prepared. I love this guy.

People have asked me on radio shows about who's the next Alvin Camara. To me, the reward is that type of a season. But the risks are there with Sony Michelle, as they are with all the rookies. Like a lot of the rookies fit directly in this category. I could have put Ronald Jones name down. A number of them. You would have said. You would have been 95-5 on Ronald Jones. Here's the risk with Sonny Michelle. You have three basic things for me. One is ball security. Twelve fumbles.

Five lost in college. He improved it. Here's the perspective, though. He improved it. Once per 54 touches in college, the average draft prospect, once per 124 touches. That one's better. So that, yeah, that improved it. Bill Belichick has a problem with that. Ask Stephen Ridley. Yeah. Of State Farm. Whether or not he has a problem with that. Look, he got me a great rate.

Yeah, well, he can, yeah, sure. His pay is worse. Snaps. You got to worry about snaps with him because, yes, you lose Dionne Lewis, and that's the role he may come into. And Dion led the team in snaps, but you're talking 35%, right? Another 33% of snaps was James White, and Burkhead was 17%, but he was injured. So you worry about snap count overall for Sony Michelle. He has to be hyper-efficient. That's what Alvin Camero was, hyper-efficient last year.

And a beast as well. I got a beast from the audience. The other thing is Bill Belichick in general is a problem. Because every week, Josh McDaniels takes him in the back room, blindfolds him, and then he plays, like, pin the tail on the depth chart. Like, you don't know who's going to start. Look at Gillisley last year. Brandon Bolden, we did it. We got it. This is the week. This is the week.

Last year, you had Gilly started with 15 and 18 carries, and it was 12 and 10 and 8, and then he disappeared. It was great first two games. And so you just don't know. But the reward is an Alvin Camara type of season. And he was a guy, Sony Michelle, in college, that killed great defenses. Alabama, Oklahoma. His, the playoff games. Apparently we're in anti-Oklahoma territory. I really don't know my geography.

Wait, where's the musical called Texas? You should be cherry for Sonny Michelle for seven to carry against them. Don't make me sing it. But, I mean, he breaks free for long runs. That's something Alvin Camara does. He's got burst. He's a between the tackles guy. The reward is that Alvin Camara. So for me, I look at it as, you know, Dionne Lewis was one of the best runners in football last year. He's gone. Great offensive line that can make space for Sonny Michelle. So I put it at 6535. I don't hate it in the,

The myth that New England does not commit to a running back, you can build a strong case for it, but when you actually look at the facts, when they find their guy, he gets a ton of carries. Because Dionne Lewis was still coming off of injuries, working his way back, but once he was finally healthy, proved it. The problem is, do you get 16 games from anybody? Fair. That's the thing you don't expect. Do you know when to start him, or does he get, you know, let's say he gets...

12 great games, but you keep starting him on the wrong week, and then after it looks like, oh, he's out of the rotation, you don't start him, and then he's the workhorse. Fifth round pick right now, right around there. Yeah, I think that's a fair price, but I still hesitate on him. Where's Lamar Miller going right now? Lamar Miller is also in the fifth round. Oh, so you would say, Lamar Miller? Even in Texan's country, we can't get Lamar Miller support.

So you take Sony over Lamar? I thought you were going to tell me. We'll talk about this in a little bit. All right. You're on, Mike. Player I want to talk about Tyreek Hill. We got some risks for Tyreek. New quarterback. New competition. In Sammy Watkins. How good was Sammy Watkins in the red zone? I don't know if people realized this. He had 10 targets in the red zone. He had seven completions in the red zone.

He had seven touchdowns in the red zone, an absolute monster. Go bigger, go home. That's my boy. Tyree Kill this past season, even with Alex Smith being a dominant fantasy quarterback, earned himself a grand total of four red zone targets. He had one reception inside the 20s. All seven of his touchdowns came from 30 yards away, and no, I don't view that as a positive.