Shocking Stats from 2022 + Difference Makers or Dust? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/21

So I wouldn't expect that to be super sticky for Jamal Williams next year. Yeah, 1994 being the first year the NFL started tracking that stats a prop. I mean, maybe the most all time. Maybe forever. But here's something wild. Jared Goff had 16 passing touchdowns inside the five. Yeah. It's wild to realize how often this team. There's a trip wire. Right at the like six, five-yard line, they fall down inside of there and then get all their production. Now, is it that, is it that, or is it they don't have plays to the end zone? Like from, you know. Yeah, I just, it is a crazy combination when you look at Williams and Goff's numbers. Their offense was insanely efficient inside the five. So how do you look at that kind of strange year for the lions? I know we believe in the offense. We believe in Amman Ra.

There's the questions around DeAndre Swift, obviously. But, you know, one thing that happens when you end up with this many kind of, you know, five zone touchdowns is you didn't have the breakaway play that made it all the way to the end zone. You worked yourself down the field. Yeah. And, you know, some of that will be presumably and or hopefully if you are a fan of the Lions or of high scoring affairs will be undone by. Jameson Williams coming in and being able to take a bomb touchdown away and stop a drive from getting to the five. You're always going to bet against any kind of crazy anomalous shocking stat from repeating the following year. But I think what it does highlight is how strong this offense was to be able to just continue to march.

all the way down. When you get in the red zone, it's difficult. The field shrinks. And so that's where kind of the smash mouth football, that's where it actually does turn at some point when you get closer to the end zone. You know, analytics is very clear. Passing the ball is so much more valuable than running the ball. But it does flip, where when you get close to, you know, in the field shrinks, running the ball, that's where you need to do it to cross into a team that is, you know, bending and not breaking versus getting into the end zone. And this offense of line is absolutely outstanding. I would expect the lion's offense to be better next year than it was this year. And they were pretty dang good. It's funny because you remember the Jared Gough story when Todd Gurley was his running back in Los Angeles. He had these inefficient numbers where he wasn't throwing as many touchdowns because Gurley was scoring them all. It's strange that he would have the, you know, the second most.

touchdowns within the five and still have a hyper-efficient running back inside the five. Like they both worked out for Jared Goff. Yeah, it's just a lot of opportunities, a lot of this offensive line imposing its will and getting, you know, grinding its way down to the five-yard line. All right, this one is Jalen making the jump, which is, you know, Jalen Waddle. He went from a yards per reception of 9.8 to a league leading 18.1. The story of Jalen Waddle's rookie season was being that PPR, dink and dunk, opportunistic, you know, just always available for two. And then he jumps to 18.1. So for.

I think one thing that comes out of this is this precedent of like it is possible for the characteristically low yards per catch player to have a new head coach come in who changes the offense. And it changes the actual result for the player. I mean, going to 18.1, we knew that Jalen Wada was a fast wide receiver, an explosive wide receiver. It's very clear that in year one, that wasn't the way he was being used. Well, here's the thing. I don't think it wasn't. entirely scheme, there were so many plays, a little crossing where he just got caught over and over and over in his rookie season. And I remember saying to people like,

This isn't going to happen forever. He's too fast to never ever have a breakaway touchdown. We kept calling for his rookie year. Like, this is the week where he's going to get a breakaway touchdown. Just impossible for him to never, ever break all the way away. He's got that kind of talent. But you talk about the coaching changes, scheme changes, situation going into another year in a new, you know, obviously new to the NFL here. That to me with lightning speed screams one player who can. Another waddle. Yeah. Someone that can follow in his footsteps and do it this year? Yes, sir. And it's Hollywood. Push it. Don't push it. Oh, man. I didn't know what you were setting up for me. Oh, sweet mercy. Don't even worry about it. Oh. Just let it go. I need that drop. I feel let down. Hollywood. There, thank you. That is. Everyone is worse off for that drop happening that late.

So you're talking about Hollywood Brown, 25 years old. He was at 10.6 a catch in Arizona. It is interesting to me, though, that part of the process for Wado you have to attribute to Tyreek Hill. You talk about getting caught. I mean, probably not caught by, you had more guys running after you last year than you did this year with Tyreek Hill. Hollywood could actually lose DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. He could definitely lose DeAndre Hopkins, have more coverage focused on him, but the way that he was utilized, they didn't play games together this year, right? So it's not like it's going to be a big change. I believe there was one single game where Kyler played with Hopkins and Hollywood Brown. So, you know. But that's almost my point. Well, no, is that he had to end up being the short yardage PPR guy. But I don't believe that that was the right way to use him. Cliff Kingsbury setting up all these little screens and basically these.

these short quick pass. We would watch these games as Cardinal fans and just be disgusted by the little dinks and dunks nonstop, never pushing the ball down the field. And I don't think that that's going to happen again with a new regime coming in. It's kind of what we saw from Hollywood in 2021 in Baltimore before he departed. He was at 11.1 a catch, which we were disappointed then because it had gone down from 13.3. The touchdown totals, the big plays. This year will be very interesting. He has, I think he's going to be, no matter how much we talk about him, I think he will be undervalued going into the draft. People have been around the block with Hollywood Brown enough years to where.

You know, unless we see some signs, I think, in training camp and in the preseason that change opinions strongly, I think he will be an undervalued type of player, maybe in the Christian Kirk kind of draft range of last year. So that's a possible name. A couple other low efficiency players to keep an eye on with changing situations. Offensive coordinator in Dallas is changing. And Michael Gallup was at 10.9 last year, also coming off the injury. And then Michael Pittman was at 9.3 yards per catch. Pittman is very interesting. And you have a brand new head coach and Shane Steichen. Yeah, the pitman change could be dramatic because the way they utilized him. And I don't think it was any fault of Michael Pittman, right? You know, Michael Pittman ran the routes he was told to run. He doesn't get to go there and just say, I'm only running these short seven-yard-out routes over and over and over and over and over and over. That's what he was asked to do. And he was okay with it. I mean, he caught 70% of his passes.

you know, was good for what they... I call him handoffs in that range. They were basically handoffs. He was good for what they asked him to do. What they asked him to do was not good for fantasy football, not good for the Colts offense. Now, he's not the burner. And usually when you look at yards per reception, that's not a sticky number either. It goes back and forth between people, so long as you're not Deshawn Jackson, it doesn't always stay high. But the years where it is high, it's because of breakaway touchdowns. It's all of a sudden you got an 80-yarder.

Well, your yards per reception number is going to look real good at the end of the season when you get one or two of those. And I don't see that in the cards for Pittman, but I do think Pittman could be used, you know, go from nine yards per reception to 13 and actually, I don't know, I've got maybe take a couple shots, 20 yards down the field. I've got some numbers on Pity City that was going to be part of another section here. He was number one in snap rate amongst all wide receivers. Seems good. Yeah. Third most routes run. Heck yeah. Second most route wins. He's good. Eight most receptions in the NFL. Perfect. That's great. Here's the bad news. Lowest receiving yards ever for a wide receiver with 99 plus receptions in a season. Lowest PPR fantasy points ever for a wide receiver with 99 receptions in a season. This is the final year of his rookie deal.

it will be very interesting to see what kind of situation he ends up in. And if you have, like I know you have your thoughts about Deonté Johnson, I feel like he was a victim of circumstance as well this year. And here you have Michael Pittman, who was a victim of circumstance. We don't know. I mean, the Colts are one of the prime candidates to trade up and get a Bryce Young or a C.J. Stroud. So. Yeah, the Colts will have a rookie quarterback. Everybody knows that this year, even if they don't trade up. They're at four. They're going to have. Levis or Richardson. Yeah, I would be shocked if Richardson number four, but that would be awesome. Well, I'm just giving you the two names. If Stroud and Young should be gone by the time they're on the clock, there's almost no chance that if they don't trade up, they're getting one of those two players. Yeah, you're saying if two teams trade up instead. There's just, because you've got the Texans at two, they're going to take a quarterback. Yeah. Arizona or the Bears will.

trade that spot away. So I'm just putting the names out there. Sure. If they don't trade up, which I think they will. I think the Colts will be the team to trade up. But if it's a rookie quarterback, you're going to have doubts about Pity City. For sure. Yeah. Because I don't think he hits those reception totals. He won't hit those reception totals with a rookie unless the rookie comes in and is mind-blowingly great. You know, if Bryce Young is everything that people say he's made up to be and goes number one if they trade up for that spot. Maybe he does make them better, but I will be betting against it. I will be drafting against the breakout because historically speaking, even great all-time quarterbacks, they're not great for fantasy wide receivers in year one. There are some outliers. You got Justin Herbert coming in, having a great fantasy production in year one, but really, even with good, successful fantasy

quarterbacks in rookie years, they don't usually support great wide receivers. The one player that I can remember in recent history that I was excited about doing that was Cam Newton's rookie season. When everybody, you know, when he came out in that first, we were at that first game, I think, was Steve Smith. It's against Cardinals. It's been a while. But let's talk Travis Kelsey. Shocking stat number one. He hasn't played a true road playoff game since the 2015 season. Wow. They're, I mean, look, I will say it. I think Kansas City Chiefs are very good team. Yeah. They're back up on the back wall here. Oh, that's right. Congratulations, Kansas City fans. Because this year, you are the champs. We already had that one in the back. Right. We did not have to buy a new Kansas City sign. So, you know, thank you for going out and saving us the $29. It's real, real big of you.

All right, here are the fantasy finishes of Travis Kelsey and what they equated to for a wide receiver, okay? Because we've run, we've gone over the tight-in finishes. It's always one, except for in 2021 where he was number two. So he's always the number one or number two tight-in since 2015. Here are the wide receiver finishes. 1912, 9, 10, 4, 10, and then this year he would have been the wide receiver 5. How is he like a... bottle of wine. How is he getting better this late into his career? The last three years, he would be the wide receiver 4, 10, and 5. 152 targets this year was the most of his career. Is that right? That's correct. Yeah, so that's a nice wine. Yeah, nice wine. 110 receptions most of his career. He was unstoppable. And every single week, you would think.

Okay, teams are going to key on them. You know, the Super Bowl, they've got two weeks to prepare. They've got personnel to do it. There is no personnel to do it. No one can do it. And what's crazy is you look at some of these plays where he gets open. You're like, why were the Eagles? Why were any team? Why did they put that guy on him? And it's not that they put that guy on him. It's that Andy Reed got that guy on him. by creative offensive design. It's like what you see with Cooper Cup and the Los Angeles Rams where it's like, he always gets a linebacker on him. It's like, sorry, you're done. Looking at the wide receiver finish, because I know Kelsey's average draft position will be a debate all offseason. Right now on Underdog, on the way too early best ball drafts, he's going at the four spot. Four overall? Yeah.

Well, I was going to ask you, what does his wide receiver fantasy finish have to be to justify being a top 10 pick? And I guess the answer right now is he's number four. I mean, if he was the wide receiver 10, if he put up the points that the wide receiver 10 did at the tight end position, he's absolutely worth first round pick. Top 10 pick, no problem. What's the, like you look at our league, right? What's the highest you think? in a redraft format. Let me just put it that way. Where are you taking? How high could you take Kelsey and not be shocked? If someone took him... I think you're talking right about there. I think you're... Four or five? I won't be surprised next year. I don't believe I will be drafting him there. And we'll see if the hype or the playoffs and the, you know, the...

the recency bias of watching him dominate over the last month while most players aren't playing. Maybe that fades away a little bit. Hype gets up for other players and he ends up at the back of round one where he spends most of his seasons being drafted. And, you know, you'll, you'll toy with that. But I will say this, the middle of the first round is the worst I can remember it in a long time. Usually you've got a handful of players that you're really, really excited about. But you get to the middle of the first round and there's question marks on a lot of those guys now. You know, you've got Derek Henry sitting there where it's like, he's older. Let me, let me make a case for Kelsey that has maybe not been made. He plays every single game every single year. You talk about the most painful experience a first round draft pick can give you sometimes is what Jonathan Taylor did this past year, what Christian McCaffrey did in years past. Travis Kelsey hasn't missed the game.

I think since 2014. He played 15 games in 2017, and I don't know if that one game was because they were holding them out or not. Kyle, do you even know? I'll look it up. His average since 2014 is 15.9 games per season. But he doesn't miss time. Like is his, you know, you talk about getting the wide receiver. He didn't miss time. You have just, I can't believe you're doing this right now. Oh, don't do that to me. You are, you are. absolutely injuring Travis Kelsey with your words right now, Mr. Fantasy Reaper. You can't hurt Travis Kelsey. It is very difficult to hurt. He's a Greek God. But how much do you value that? I mean, you talk about the decision making between one or two players at the five spot. One of them has a higher odds of getting hurt. I mean, when you have played, what is that? Almost a decade without missing time.

I feel like that shows you that this player knows how to take care of their body. The way they're exposed in the offense is not, they're not vulnerable to injury. Yeah, I mean, you watch someone like Gronk who was great in his heyday versus Travis Kelsey. And it's not just a results thing where you go, Gronk missed games and Kelsey didn't. You watched the process. You watch the plays and the tackles. We talked about in Gronk's heyday. It just looks like he's getting blowed up. every, you know, just ragdawed the way that he would put his body in harm's way. Yeah, it's a crash test situation every time he's hit. And you don't see that with Travis Kelsey. You, Travis Kelsey is, is either being put in positions to not take that punishment or he's smart with how he gets it. But I mean, he's, he's 33. And he's fine. He's dominant. He cannot be stopped. But can't do it forever. Well, another thing that stands out is if there was like a great.

Free agent wide receiver crew this year, you'd be like, ah, the chiefs are a great target for that. Or even a really deep group of elite first round wide receivers, but I don't see that personally either. So the chances that the chief, I'll put it this way, the chances that the chiefs find a primary target this offseason are zero. I think they are. Would you agree with that? To find a new primary target. I think it's probably 5%. They're not in a position where they're going to go trade for a stud. They just traded a stud away. And the only way that it happens is an outside shot for someone like Jackson Smith and Jigba falling because he was injured in his final season. And maybe he is the dude that was there with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olive and was a, you know, was.

thought of as the best of the three wide receivers on the field. And a PPR type of guy. Yeah, if he fell or if somehow Cadarious Tony got fully healthy. But those are long odds, long shots, whereas Travis Kelsey is a very, very large bullseye. They just paint the entire target red and say hit the bullseye. It's all a bullseye. It's been a heck of a run. for Kelsey. I mean, nine years of being a 127 plus target type of player. No one's ever doubted you, Travis, even though you claim that everyone doubted you. We know that you're very good. So I just want to get that out there. Although maybe the doubt is key to the success. I want to rewind there a little bit. I had doubt. I had doubt this last year. I really did. And I shared that doubt.

And so I'll take my lumps because I thought. Busted. Yeah, busted indeed. I thought this could be the beginning of the end for him as defenses are able to key on him without Travis Kelsey. He's 33 years old, a little bit older. I mean, there were things that I thought that were so stupid, so dumb, because he was unstoppable. And he beat the tar out of everyone. Yeah, I hope we get a couple more years of it. Me too. We won't have one that. It comes along like Travis Kelsey for a while. Mike and I need to go four titles in a row with Kelsey. How do you feel about that, Kyle? You excited for the prospects of...

Champ, champ, champ. Their team's really old, by the way. We are really old, but Derek Henry and Travis Kelsey, we keep talking. It's funny because Mike and I. Is he going to have like, are you going to have a dark period? Are you going to enter the dark ages? Because at this point, you can't abandon. Exactly. You can't rebuild now. So what's funny is I won back-to-back championships a couple years ago in our Dynasty League, but I recognized my team wasn't really good enough to go. So I kind of tore it down for the last two years a little bit.

built up assets now I'm ready for another run because that's kind of how I view dynasty take you take your windows and then get out before it's too late this is where you trade album camere you trade uh Aaron Jones you make sure you capitalize on those assets before they run out you know it got something for uh Julio before he ran out but with our team with three championships in a row We've talked. Mike and I have said we can't do it. We cannot trade Derek Kenner. I would usually trade Derek Henry, trade Travis Kelsey, try to get something plus youth so that I can rebuild on the fly. We are going to ride this thing into the ground and it's going to be bad when it's over. We've got no depth behind these old men, but we're going to come on one more. Oh, you're winning it.

They can't be stopped. I thought Kyle was the guy to do it and he couldn't do it. Yeah. It'll be Andy Schneider, to be honest, because his team's unbelievable. No, it won't. You're going to win again. It'll be me. All right, that is it for today's show, Ultimate DraftKid.com. If you want to get a part of jumping to the dynasty pass, Ultimate draftkid.com. We'll catch you on Thursday. Take care. you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot dot com and follow us on twitter at the ffballers