AFC East Breakdown, Handcuffs, Doppler Effect

I'm in off-season form, Brooks. That's wrong. I got to have that ready for you. No, you did have it ready for me. Brooks, you don't need to hold his hand. The man needs to know about Josh Stallion. He'll learn how to swim on his own. At some point, I need to hand this off to Brooks. Oh, Brooks hosting the show? No, not the, stop. Oh, don't be ridiculous. Jason drops. We almost did it, Jason. Oh, man. Soon.

Yeah. All right. All right. Here comes Brooks. Let's see how it goes. Nope. I just meant the stallion drop. He could have, he should have it on a pedal, Mike. Put him on a guitar pedal with different drops. Nice. You hear his foot stomping over there. Eventually it hits it. Thanks, bro. Excellent. Excellent. No problem. Josh Stallion came in, set the NFL on fire, fantasy on fire. Yeah. We all like him.

As a potential breakout based on his ADP, he's an 11th round, middle of the 11th round fantasy quarterback. Has anything changed since, you know, in your thinking over the last month or two about Josh Allen? Not much has changed. I mean, he is a great late round shot because, you know, scoring is so wacky where quarterbacks that run the ball.

They get a point for every 10 yards versus quarterbacks throwing the ball. They get a point for every 25 yards. The rushing quarterbacks are so safe, and they have huge monstrous upsides. We saw that already. The second half of the rookie year, once he came back from injury, he was the quarterback two. So you've already seen Josh Allen in fantasy football be a dominant force. Then they've gone out this offseason. Remember when they had Antonio Brown? Remember guys when they traded for Antonio Brown? Yeah, I remember. And then that fell through.

Then they're like, okay, we'll load the BB gun up with everything else we can. And so, I mean, he's got weapons he didn't have last year. He's coming into year two. They, you know, I think that he is a very great late round shot to be a really, you know, he's got the upside to be a top five.

fantasy quarterback just because of how, if you didn't watch them, right, because the bills didn't get a lot of air time. Oh, please don't watch them. They didn't get a lot of airtime last year. He's not the most accurate quarterback. He's really been poo-poohed a lot in that way. But as an athlete, as a runner, I mean.

He is a dominant NFL player in that regard. He looks like Cam Newton when it comes to he can pull the ball down. He's going to get the outside. He'll plow forward for a couple extra yards. He's a big athletic guy. They're going to run the football. If you wanted to make the case for Josh Allen to develop as a passer, it would have been an easier case to make with a true...

wide receiver one like an Antonio Brown or somebody of that caliber coming in a physical specimen, right? These are not, look, Zay Jones is his best red zone target. That's the end of that sentence. John Brown, yes, he can run down the field. Robert Foster is a burner. No, as a physical red zone talent, Cole Beasley is a micro machine. Yes. He is not going to be the player that Colbley's.

Cole Beasley doesn't save you from yourself. The way Brandon Marshall would save Jay Cutler from himself is my only point. From an errant ball? Correct. Like, who was it for Cam for two years in Carolina? What? Funches? Not before Funges. Benjamin? Benjamin. Benjamin was a monster of a man. It didn't matter if. The Bills had him, and they said no. The catch radius is my point. So I don't know how much I would project Alan to develop as a passer. Just count on him to run the football.

If you're making, let's say you're placing bets now on where you want to be with LaShawn McCoy or Zevin Singletary or Gore or John Brown or Cole Beasley, where are you drafting bills or are you not? I'm pretty much not drafting bills. I like Devin Singletary. I think he's a talented back, but he is clearly behind LaShawn McCoy unless they release him surprisingly or get something for him. Assuming that they go into the season with Shady as a starter.

I'm not on shady. I don't believe that he's going to get better with age. He's had a lot of wear and tear on his tires. I don't believe he will either. He wasn't good last year. And it's a clogged backfield. Because it's a clogged backfield and it's a clogged wide receiving core. The only player that I really want on this team is Josh Allen. He's cheap. He, you know, he checks all the boxes for fantasy quarterback play other than, you know, if you're in one of those leagues, maybe a minus four per interception type league. Stay away. I will still take.

the shot for Shady McCoy, but just because his ADP is so interesting. Brooks, this is current. Yes, sir. 9-11 for a projected starting running back who can catch the ball. If you were talking about McCoy was still up in that five, six range, then no, I have no interest. But almost a 10th round pick for a starting running back. What are the running backs am I taking there versus McCoy? And I'm not saying that four or against you. I'm curious. Okay, here's the guys going.

right ahead of him. Because I want to test this and see what I would do. So just ahead of him, the running backs would be Jordan Howard, Latavius Murray, Darryl Henderson. Just after Shady would be Royce Freeman, Karim Hunt, Jerich McKinnon. I will not have LaShaul McCoy on a roster this year. I'm going to say something super much. Which running backs that I read were you like, yeah, I'm taking those? All six. Okay. Cream Hunt? All over. Oh, I'm sorry.

Sorry, not Kareem Hunt, because I'm not drafting Kareem Hunt. The other five, I will take over Shady. And I'm going to say something super unhelpful because that's good for the show. I think this backfield will have a very, very viable fantasy running back from week nine on. Oh. I think it's Devin Singletary. Then it's Singletary for sure. This is a team that wants to run the football. They're fifth in the league in rushing yardage. It's not just Josh Allen. They want to run the ball.

but can they? And is it one guy? I think you'll find out by the halfway through the years. I'm afraid to draft Shady is my point. I get it, but a 10th round price is not very scary. You'll know. I mean, maybe you rent him for a few weeks, at least. The Jets, the New York Jets, 4 and 12 last season, Adam Gays, new head coach replaces Todd Bowles. Here we go again with Adam Gays.

Starts the season against Buffalo, Cleveland, New England, and then an early bi-week this year. Everyone wants to know about the off-season edition of Levion Bell, how he's going to produce for fantasy owners, and what I want to know, more than anything, and if anybody has a crystal ball wants to clue me in, will Sam Darnold take the next step and will he do it quickly under Adam Gaze, who you guys...

Aren't big fans, but he has been heralded as someone that gets the maximum out of what he has. I did see him do that once. I saw him do it with Ryan Tannehill. He got the best of Ryan Tannahill. Okay. Fantasy had, Ryan Tannahill was relevant at times in fantasy. He got the best out of Tannahill for what Tannahill is. Donald's ceiling is higher than Tannahill to me. So are you familiar with, uh, with the Paula Abdul? That's...

I love any sentence that starts that way. I've heard of the Paula Abdul. No, it's the Paula Abdul paradox when it comes to quarterbacks. Oh dear. You asked about him taking steps. It's two steps forward, two steps back. That's not, you're in the same spot. Exactly. He'll take a step forward because you at least saw some progression. You saw the flash over the last few weeks of the season. Once he returned from his injury,

And Josh McCown really helped Sam Donald, I believe, mentoring him up, him able to sit and watch and learn from the sideline, I think was very beneficial for him. Plus, he has Robbie Anderson and he has Levy on Bell. So I think that Sam Darnold does take the next step. I don't think that translates into huge fantasy numbers, but maybe the Jethler of five, six win team now. How many times do you think you could stream Sam Darnal?

I think you can stream to Sam Darnold, you know, probably five or six times this season. He's a good quarterback. I think the future is bright. He's clearly going to take a step, you know, forward from his rookie season. And so does that push him? Yeah, he had the games where it was like you saw what you needed to see. So, you know, does he become a top 15 quarterback next year? I don't think so. Can he become a top 25 quarterback? Absolutely. He can get himself away from the conversation of,

the last place fantasy quarterbacks, which is, you know, where he lived as a rookie. Now, where that goes, you know, you brought up Lev Bell, Robbie Anderson, he's got Quincy and Noonois. I really like Chris Hernd in longer term, but he will likely be suspended for the first two games at just tight end. Right. It's not official yet, but it kind of leaked. It's going to happen. It leaked that they expect a two game suspension, but it's not technically official yet.

Yeah, so, I mean, this is an interesting offense, right? It's a matter of what you believe as a whole. I think this is one where you have to take a holistic approach. I think Sam Darnold gets better, but I am so afraid of a timeshare with Levi-on-Bell, with Adam Gaze saying, look, you're afraid of a timeshare? I'm afraid of, and don't get me wrong. Are we transitioning away from Donald here?

Yes. Yes. Well, you got more Darnold stuff? No, I was confused as what you're saying. No, I'm saying the Jets is a whole. Okay. So a holistic approach to the Jets, I think, that starts with Darnold, but also includes Adam Gaze. And Adam Gaze has not been predominantly a workhorse running back guy. Now, he's had, you know, Kenya Drake. He has not had Levy on Bell. They paid a lot of money for Love Bell. So is Love Bell going to be the clear leader here? Absolutely 100%. There's no doubt. But he's not going to get the work.

To the same degree, the market share within the running backs that he got at Pittsburgh, which was basically all of it. I just can't imagine that happening here. I mean, really? I really can. I mean, do you think he's going to get the same percentage of market share that he got in Pittsburgh? Yes. Yeah, pretty close. But he may struggle with it. I do not think that happens. I really genuinely don't. Well, then it was a.

Complete waste of money. Did he, will he receive 100 passing targets in 2019? No. I say no. Okay. Will he receive 90 passing targets in 2019? Because that's where the value for Lev Bell, that's where the immunity against GameScript helps Lev Bell. This is a 4 and 12 team. Now, I expect him to be a better team. But what if they're not? If they're not and you have a high volume workload running back, it don't matter.

if you're not catching the ball. You need the immunity. You need 90 targets. I have him with 88 targets right now. But the immunity. So close. For him, which he's safe. So where is, where is he going? 109. So he's going at the back of the first rent. Are you guys taking Levi-on-Bell there or are you pivoting to a wide receiver and just letting someone else take Bell? Are you taking the approach of you're okay passing?

I am 100% okay being wrong on Lev Bell. I don't think Levi-on-Bel gets the workload that we're accustomed to him getting and he's going to be less effective with the New York Jets team. Will he still be? No, no. If he doesn't get the volume and he is not as efficient, how is he not a bust? Well, I mean, so it depends on what you think. So if he was drafted where David Johnson was drafted last year, he would be a bust, right? David Johnson finished as the.

running back 10. Right. And people felt like he was a bust because he was, you know, at the 101. If he's drafted where he's drafted right now at the 109 and he finishes as the running back 13, will you feel like he's a bust? I mean, I don't think you'll feel like he's a bust even though he's not an RB1. Possibly. There are, it's a tough decision for fantasy owners right now because, you know, the guys that I have back to back in my rankings are Levi-M Bell and someone like Dalvin Cook. And.

When you look at the situation that you face as a fantasy owner picking, which guy do I want to be my running back one? Well, it's not like Lev Bell in his career history hasn't shown you who can have this huge ceiling. But I don't love the team that was 26th in rushing offense last year. That is ranked 27th heading into 2019 as an offensive line, something Lev Bell's never dealt with. A team that was 25th in passing yardage with a younger quarterback.

So those things I don't love. I love Minnesota committing to the run. I love what they've done with their own line to improve it. I love Dalvin Cook's market share. And maybe the unknown of Dalvin Cook is tempting in that situation. So that's the decision fantasy owners have to make. Yeah. And I'm probably flipping a coin between those two in my drafts. Those are the best decisions. Well, but yeah, look, between those two, the way my, the way I want my team to feel, the risk, reward.