The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2020, Part 1 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/19

Mojo was completely back. I mean, and it's still going. You have, so 38% of his games were great. 81% of his games were good, just 6% bust. I mean, he had, he had that one game, which it was against Tampa Bay. Let's see if they can write that ship. But that other than that one game against Tampa Bay, Air Rogers was, was locked and loaded, gave you just,

anything you could possibly want from a fantasy quarterback and a guy that was drafted as the QB 10. Right. And it was unbelievable year. Now, let's get to the truth. The truth was this year unbelievably consistent. All the swag was back. I just want to highlight the jump we saw from Aaron Rogers on the exact same team that had the exact same record as last year. He went from 26 touchdowns to 48 touchdowns.

He went from a 4.6 touchdown percentage to a 9.1% touchdown rate, which is the greatest season of his career. He has never surpassed that number. Yeah, I'm looking. His second season, he had 45 touchdowns in a 9% rate. He hasn't been, he hasn't sniffed 9% since that year. His highest since then was 7% in 2014. Because 9% is like historic.

levels if you can sustain 9% through a season. So he's 37 in a couple months and a couple months, not 37 in a couple months. What is the truth about Aaron Rogers heading into the next year? This year, all the credit in the world probably wins the MVP. They might go to the Super Bowl. He was unbelievable for your fantasy team. But that touchdown percentage, you don't see that number repeat itself almost ever.

No, you'll see that 9% will absolutely come down. Aaron Rogers is a above league average touchdown thrower. He has been that his entire career. The last couple were down, but this was the question marks about Aaron Jones running back for the Green Bay Packers coming into the season where look at how many touchdowns he had. And so I think the...

And Aaron Jones was still great and everything, but the touchdowns weren't what they were last year because they started swinging more. They swung back to Aaron Rogers. The truth for me about Aaron Rogers heading into next year is I have seen absolutely nothing in Aaron Rogers' gameplay that suggests there's not at least one more elite season of his play. Where it's like Drew Breeze, when you watched Drew Breeze last year, you knew that like,

Okay, maybe he's coming back next year, but he is not the same. So I will still be in on Aaron Rogers. I have no idea where he's going to go in drafts. If you still held the faith, congratulations, and you drafted Aaron Rogers, and it was like that paid off big time. I imagine he will be a value based on his age and the regression narrative. Just for context, when Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns, that was an 8.6% rate, not a 9.1.

Mahomes dropped to 5.4, then 6.5 this past year. So the 9.1 is not going to continue, but he could still be a value because let me ask you, is Mahomes going to go ahead of him? Yes. Is Lamar going to go ahead of him? Probably. That one's maybe. I don't know if the recency bias will put up. Alan, Kyler, Watson, Wilson, Rogers. I don't know who goes where in that bunch, but it will be interesting.

He never had, it looks, you know, first week of the year, he was the number two quarterback on the week. Fourth week of the year was the number three. Really, he never had a number one finish on the course of the year. But many, many in the top five. Yeah, very, very consistent. From week seven on, he was the quarterback one at the position. So, yeah, that's pretty good. That's up there. Also had a 73% completion percentage inside the 20. It's crazy. And, you know, what's funny is.

You know, this is not rocket science, and maybe it's dumb to even bring it up. But Josh Allen and Kyler Murray made humongous jumps. Well, they added Stefan Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins. You got a healthy Devante Adams for the majority of this year, and Aaron Rangers used him over and over and over again. Number four, Patrick Mahomes. He was number two in terms of consistency. Number four at the position in total points, only played 15 games. 73% of his games.

were considered good games just under Rogers, 40% great, a little bit ahead of Rogers, and only 7% bus. So one game where you were disappointed. This was probably the best example of a normal Patrick Mahomes year that you could get. I think this is the year that you could print out as an average stateline for the next 10 years of Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, it's interesting to think about it that way.

This is probably the average. If you get a healthy Patrick Mahomes for the season, you're going to see something like this where... 4,738. Yeah, just incredible 38. I mean, that number can definitely go up. So, yeah, average sounds about right for this. But you do have some games, just you have a couple games where the touchdowns go to running back, and then all of a sudden Mahomes is not as great, but...

overall heading into next year, you should have no concerns about Patrick Mahomes, except for draft price. Yeah, and I'll tell you right now, I'll take Patrick Mahomes ahead of Josh Allen, without question, you know, in a vacuum going into next year. Yeah, if draft round were not considered, not important in this, but I mean, let's say Patrick Mahomes, third round, Josh Allen, fifth round. I'll take Josh Allen. Yeah.

Yeah. In that situation, for sure. The problem is where Patrick Mahomes goes, you're in that top three round range where, yeah, you're going to have a lot of positional players bust in that range, but your highest probability on hitting on a top.

player like a wide receiver one and a running back one is in those first few rounds i have a question for you first the stat though since 2018 mohomes has been a qb one 34 out of 45 start so that's 75% of the time gosh and then uh here's another question though did he return value this year he was the fourth pick of the second round on average oh man that's i don't know that there's an actual like scientific

factual here that this is kind of just a feeling and I would my feeling would be no you did not return value and some of that is based off of what the rest of the league did I suppose which is that's not in Mahomes control but it's part of the game where you drafted a player through 38 touchdowns in the second round when you could have drafted uh Aaron Rogers who almost through 50 touchdowns in the back of the eighth yeah he certainly didn't

burn you with the pick as in no barrier team but you're probably right i mean that's a very very high pick for a quarterback he was the number two most consistent at the position so unlike what lamar did if you drafted him early moham still helped now number five tried and true here he is to sean watson you can take away his his best receiver you can fire his coach you can delete his offensive line

You can... When was O'Brien fire? I got to vet that compared to these... Isn't that a holiday now? Isn't that a... It's not a national... It's not a national holiday. He ended up Deshaun Watson, 4,800 yards, 33 passing touchdowns, only seven interceptions, and another three rushing touchdowns with 400 yards on the ground. Sixth round pick, the QB6? Like, would you say Deshaun Watson returned value? Middle of sixth round? Yeah.

I think I think he did. If you were able to hold on for those first few weeks. He was the number one quarterback three different weeks. Just bringing that number up compared to the Rogers numbers. 13% bust rate, 69% good games, 25% great. But when you draft a quarterback and week one, you know, he's fine, he's the QB 12. You're like, okay, well, there's better days ahead. But then the quarterback 21, 17, 15, did you?

Did you make it through that? And did you make it through that? Without giving up that this was the new Watson without Hopkins? Right. Yeah. Probably not. I mean, maybe you had to with the sixth round investment on a quarterback. But this was a quarterback who was better against bottom 16 defenses, 29 fantasy points. Top 16 defenses he had trouble, 22. So there was a pretty big disparity, 6.18.

point difference between top 16 and bottom 16 defenses about the same home road split but another impressive year finishing at number five that's what he does so o'brien was in fact fired after week four he was uh so those three games just cited oh man he does suck and he after he left i've got the number 25 fantasy points per game from week five on oh

which I have down as the QB1 in that span. So you remove the cancer and the offense became healthy. Yeah. Deshaun Watson, as far as the truth for next year for Watson, man, there are just so many variables that have to play out for him. Is he back? Is Eric Bienn of me, his coach? Is Will Fuller back? I mean, no matter what, you like Deshaun Watson because he's an elite level quarterback.

But where he mixes in with these guys, that depends on a lot of the things that still have to happen. Well, at least this year he decided to try to situation proof himself. He said, hey, if you fire your coach and you get rid of my best wide receiver, I can still produce. So those variables are in play. They're big. But, you know, he even showed you when he lost Fuller for the back part of the year and ended up with multiple top six finishes. So.

You can take them all away, and he'll throw it to Darren Fells. He'll throw it to Aiken's. Aikins will drop it, but then he'll throw it to somebody else. All right, Mike, I know you're going to enjoy this one. Oh, I mean, come on. Russell, Russell, Wilson. Oh, did I mention the consistency rate of number five to John Watson? Do it again if you'd do it. He's number five. Yeah, yeah. He's like the most guaranteed number five.

Across the board. Now, Russell Wilson, Mike, he finished at six at the position. His consistency rank was number 10. Gross. Now, let me show the disparity. The first half, his consistency was number one. The second half consistency was 18. Yeah, the cooking was happening at the beginning. Yeah. And then Russell Wilson left the turkey in the oven a little bit too long and the chef privileges were removed. Yeah, 25% bus games.

63% good, 31% great. I mean, we all saw it. We all saw the beginning of this year. We saw the ascension of D.K. Metcalfe. And we saw what Russell could do. Now, Pete Carroll doesn't like turnovers. And this was Russell Wilson last year. This is the exact same thing that happened. So I don't know if that's enough to have a trend moving forward of saying.

I'm going to be all in on Seattle through the first few weeks, and then I'm going to move on. But it's, Russell Wilson's in a very tough place for fantasy. Yeah, and you're going to have a new offensive coordinator. You have a head coach that apparently Brian Schottenheimer wasn't running the ball enough for. And I'm not messing around with Russ. It's too scary to do it. I mean, I guess there's a, there's always a point in a value, but he was a fifth round pick this year. Sure.

So it's difficult. He was a little bit better against worst defenses, not unexpected, a little bit better at home. Man, the home road stuff this year was so different with Kobe. Yeah, yeah. That'll be very bizarre heading into next year. But Russell Wilson, I know that he has the final finish of QB6. So, you know, when casual fantasy players are coming back and they see that and they know the name of Russell Wilson. So he probably still will be drafted around.

there. But I think there's going to be a lot of leagues where Russell Wilson drops to the bottom like 10 or so of the quarterbacks being drafted. Are you going to be, are you willing to take the chance on Russell Wilson if that somehow happens that he falls down to QB 10? Yeah, I mean, there's always the chance that you do what you said. You know, the last two years, weeks one through nine, he's the QB1 and the QB2. Weeks 10 on, the QB 20 and the QB 16. If you are going to make that deal,

with Russell Wilson come join my team. You have to be willing to pivot away from him when the offense changes. And so the likelihood of him being on my team is low, but not impossible for sure. Numbers, go ahead. I'm not going to say that they are the devil, but the devil has his price. Yeah. And you've paid it two years in a row. Yeah. And, you know, they need Adam Gays, frankly. They need him to.