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Main show · October 9, 2019

Buy/Sell + Let’s Talk Trades, A Healthy Beating

RSSOct 9, 2019 · transcript indexed
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Buy/Sell + Let’s Talk Trades, A Healthy Beating

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130 passages
28:01 ↗

Their defense is strong. Their offense is getting it done. They are on the by week, so it may be easier to get these players. But John Brown, and I'm even going to throw in Devin Singletary here because it might be a lot easier to get Devin Singletary. He's had the hamstring injury the past couple weeks. It's looked like he might play, but he hasn't been able to heal up enough to be there. But I expect after the by week that Devin Singletary is going to give it a go. And here's what's happening for Buffalo.

28:31 ↗

after this week. At home against Miami. At home against Philadelphia. At home against Washington. And then on the road against Cleveland and Miami. Those are three unbelievable home matchups. And then you get to tack on two great road games as well. Like the Buffalo Bills are primed. If Josh Allen is on your waiver wire, I am picking them up.

28:59 ↗

to stash, assuming that I'm not living like a great quarterback situation. But John Brown has been good. He hasn't been elite or great. He's only scored one time. But his target volume, his receptions, his yard is total, and his air yards say that John Brown will be scoring very, very soon. Just hold tight. Like Zach Ertz, the volume was there. You know that the touchdowns are coming. The touchdowns will be coming for John Brown. And if the team...

29:29 ↗

uses Devon Singletary kind of the way that he was ramping up to become before the hamstring injury, then you are stealing a running back too for the second half of the season. Yeah, I will say this. I've stashed Josh Allen everywhere I can. It's tough to trade for players on their buy sometimes, especially while you might have players on it. It just might be. I get it. But it also makes it easier. It's a leverage point against that owner. Sure. So if your roster allows for.

29:56 ↗

you know, the extra spot and your, your opponent that has John Brown need someone, you might be able to steal him a little cheaper. I can buy into that. And Devin Singletary, this is the time, you know, he's still available in like 35% of leagues. People dropping him because of the buy, watch the drop it like it's hot for his name. He's a definite pickup and stash right now. We were talking about how bad waivers were. Singletary's a guy to pick up.

30:25 ↗

The next name I'm going to throw out there is Josh Gordon. I am with this one. I don't believe Andy is from the facial reaction that he made when I told him yesterday I was targeting Josh Gordon. But I look, I think he is the clear alpha wide receiver. As far as just he is, you know, he is a really good wide receiver for Tom Brady. As the season goes on, they're not going to just have nothing but cakewalk matchups where.

30:53 ↗

They don't necessarily need him. And if you look at him... The league is looking into that, Jason. Yeah, they're trying to fix this. They're changing the back end of the schedule. Yeah, because we've got to make things easy for the Patriots. But even still, over the last three games, 11 targets, seven targets, eight targets. He is involved in a great offense. But you know what hasn't come? The touchdowns. I don't think Josh Gordon's going to finish the year with one touchdown for this team. So that means he is a by-low, a guy that I think you can...

31:23 ↗

play, start, have big weeks from, too. He's not that guy that's going to go out there. It's like, okay, he's okay. He has the talent to go out there and have, you know, 150 yards and a touchdown, you know, in a couple big plays. So he's a guy that isn't going to cost you much at all to get. I think there's some positive regression coming for Gordon in the touchdown category. I mean, like you said, he's not going to have one on the course of the year. But last year we saw some inconsistency.

31:52 ↗

goes a different direction at times if they can lean on the running game. They will. Last year we saw a couple of 100-yard games. I think you will get a couple games out of him, but he seems a player with a little bit wider range of outcomes than somebody you would consider a normal alpha on the team. There are games where he'll have three for 32 or four for 41, and if he doesn't score, then you're disappointed. That's what I'm more afraid of, but the matchup should get more difficult, so Brady should have to throw the ball a little bit more.

32:22 ↗

I don't mind it because of the target volume. If the target volume was lower, weeks 1 and 2, you saw 4 and 5, one of those with Antonio Brown. But it has gone up. He hasn't done a lot with it. So I don't mind it. I think you can probably get him cheap, and that's kind of part of the key to this. I'm going to throw Kyla Murray out there. I'd be targeting Carla Murray right now. He's the quarterback 11 on the season. He has four touchdowns in five games, passing touchdowns. He has zero in the last two weeks.

32:52 ↗

Yet he's scored on the ground in both of those weeks. The running volume is going up. The success on offense is going up because he's running the ball more. So they're going to stick with that plan. He's going to feel more and more comfortable in this offense. And we talked about the Cardinals are scoring on 30% of red zone or opportunities in the red zone. That's not going to persist. They're going to be able to get back towards at least the league average at that point. The passing touchdowns are going to come. And if Kyler Murray throws one and runs one,

33:19 ↗

And then you get the yardage on the ground. He's going to be a consistent top fantasy performance. And those days are coming for Kyler Murray. Kyle Murray in four-point leagues is the quarterback seven. He's been a quarterback the last two weeks with zero passing touchdowns. He's been a quarterback one, both of those weeks. Yeah, I just think he's a great buy-low opportunity right now as this team figures it out. And he is a rookie. He's getting more and more comfortable in each and every week. He doesn't have Christian Kirk back yet.

33:48 ↗

who's a big part of the passing offense. Kirk should be back maybe this week, if not then in a couple of weeks. So I think Kyler Murray is a bylaw opportunity where you're going to lean on the fact that the rushing yardage is there. And he can have blow-up games when something goes right. In weeks three and four, he had an average depth of target, excuse me, of only five yards. It jumped back up this past week to 10.2. So I agree with you, Andy. I think that he's becoming more and more comfortable in.

34:18 ↗

in the offense, in the NFL, and the fact that his baseline is so safe. Like Lamar Jackson, even, even I was kind of poo-pooing Lamar Jackson's passing attack, he's still a solid quarterback won just because of the rushing, how fantasy football works. So I'm with that. And I'll just combo that with the growth of Kyla Murray. I think Larry Fitzgerald is a good trade target right now. Larry came out of the gates really, really hot and has since.

34:48 ↗

disappointed that if you drafted Larry you've been disappointed the past couple weeks I think that's the type of pendulum swing that you can go in and get them for you know pretty cheap maybe even a bench player and say you know Larry it's it's kind of falling off let me take them off your hands and then you stash and wait for the return all right now players were looking to actively shop now bear in mind you have to be smart

35:16 ↗

when you're trading players. You have to remember some tendencies about your league mates. You have to remember who they like or who they had a crush on in preseason. This is part of the, you know, we're not in your league. You're in your league. You have the context of the opponents in your league and what, you know the charger fan, right, in your league that just wants more chargers. That's going to be part of the strategy here when you unload players and you need to capitalize on narrative and things like that. I think you should, I don't know what you can get for them, but I would.

35:46 ↗

not be expecting David Montgomery to break out anytime soon. David Montgomery, it hasn't happened. He's back to my old David Montgomery. Oh, no, no. There's problems. Problem number one, snap count. 50-50 with Tori-Coen pretty much last week. Problem number two, not being used in the passing game. One reception last week. Here's his receptions for five games. 13-3-1. You need that.

36:14 ↗

You need him to be... This is not the Kareem Hunt implementation in Chicago. Here's his matchups coming up. First, he's on by this week. Then you've got the Saints, Chargers, Philadelphia, in Philadelphia, Detroit. I'm not excited about that opportunity. Then the Rams. What's the game script going to be in those situations? Is Tariq Kong going to be on the field significantly? How about as a runner? Have we seen signs of life? Not really. No.

36:42 ↗

You know, he's not, he's not broken any big plays. 11 for 25 against Oakland. 21 for 53 against Minnesota. I like that volume. Yeah, 21 against Minnesota was great because they had the game script in their favor. I just think that we're not really going to see much from him. He saved his week last week by getting into the end zone, and we haven't seen the runner that we saw in the preseason. And we can't keep believing the narrative that it's going to happen at any moment. So.

37:11 ↗

I would try to sell him on somebody that's hyped about him or the Bears or David Montgomery coming into the season because right now I just don't think it's going to happen. Yeah, and I'm going to sell the guy that the Bears sold so that they could get David Montgomery. And that is Jordan Howard. Oh, you're going to sell him. I'm actively buying him. This is a perfect conversation then. Yeah. Because Jordan Howard can be sold.

37:38 ↗

He is a quality running back right now, who's the goal line back, who's got touchdowns of back-to-back games, has looked awesome. People will be buying Jordan Howard, like Andy. Yep. But here's the thing. Last two games. Back-to-back to back games, Jason. You forgot it to back. Okay, I forgot it to back. Tobacculosis. You know, back-to-back-to-back, the Packers and the Jets, a big part of the back-to-back-to-back. The schedule coming up for.

38:08 ↗

Jordan Howard is not good. Cowboys, Bill's, Bears, Patriots for the next month. I'm not loving that matchup. I don't think Jordan Howard is just going to all of a sudden take over and keep getting better as the season goes on. If anything, you know, rookies tend to get better as time goes on. They learn the offense. Miles Sanders could get more involved. Jordan Howard isn't a must ship.

38:34 ↗

But he's a guy that if I can capitalize on him being really good over the last few weeks, I'm willing to do that. I'm willing to try to flip someone like Jordan Howard because I don't believe that Jordan Howard stays where he's been the last three weeks. Yeah, and I...

38:51 ↗

I would be buying him from you. You can come find me. I think Jordan Howard, Doug Peterson, the comments he's made about him, he said he's his lead back. This is an offense that's going to improve with the Sean Jackson coming back, more goal line opportunities. Howard has been one of the most effective goal line backs in football for years now, and he's on a great football team. So I think if I know I'm getting 13 to 15 carries from Jordan Howard on a team that I believe in and he's around the goal line, I'm trying to buy him because people think, oh, wow, he's stumbled into...

39:20 ↗

these touchdowns and regressions coming. And maybe it does against some of those opponents, but I'm actually buying. Mike, I'd love to hear you weigh in. I think I can get him cheap. That's why I'm going after him. I think you can get him cheap. And if you, in fact, can, then I'm somewhat interested. But that schedule, that's a gauntlet for not just Jordan Howard, but Philadelphia in general. So I'm concerned. We had a foot clan person, Curtis Stewart on Facebook. He says, you know,

39:48 ↗

Would he give up Josh Gordon to get Jordan Howard straight up? He's an Eagles fan, so I want him. By the way, that's kind of what you need to pay attention to in your league sometimes. That's a team-dependent trade to me. I mean, if you have enough wide receivers to give up Josh Gordon, I think that's fine. I don't think Jordan Howard is a guarantee of production, but I'm looking at him saying, hey, if he continues to emerge, he's run well. I don't know.

40:16 ↗

Yeah, whenever it's a wide receiver for a running back, it's always team dependent. We can't advise anybody trade away a running back. Like, I'm buying Josh Gordon and I'm selling Jordan Howard, so this is perfect for me. But we can't just tell everybody out there, yeah, do that deal, because if that leaves you with a hole at running back, that's never going to be good. I would rather take Jordan Howard and some other good piece to try to flip into Lev Bell or something like that.

40:45 ↗

To piggyback on that, make sure your running back situation is stout. I have been answering a lot of trade questions recently. Okay, I'm going to trade this running back away for this wide receiver because I'm solid here. And then you're left with two pretty good running backs and a third guy you can sort of start. You're not good then. You're not good at running back. And because you have the buy weeks coming up.

41:15 ↗

and you have one injury to the position that gets hurt the most, and you're hosed, man. So don't view two decent starters and one backup option as being stout at running back. Know that you are taking a chance by living that life. Yeah, and like you said on yesterday's show, you're entering the time of year when wear and tear, the schedule, the Thursday night games running into, you know,

41:43 ↗

right after a Sunday game. There's more risk for injury. There's more opportunities for players that you've been counting on to miss a game here or a game there. Depth has always gotten you by well in a lot of our leagues, Mike. You want to sell Mark Ingram. I do. And this is, he's not an absolute must sell. But similar to you were talking about Cooper Cuppling, Mark Ingram has name value in the fantasy football world. And the dude has six rushing touchdowns.

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