AFC South + Gordon Drama, Breaking News

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I'm doing good. Is this our second-to-last divisional breakdown? Yes, sir. So we're almost through all of them? Yeah, we've got the NFC south to wrap it up. Why do we start with the AFC? Why does the NFC get the second position? Just went alphabetical. Yeah, hey, man. It's easy. Simple as that. Good answer, good answer. Good answer. All right. Well, if you haven't heard any of the previous episodes, the previous divisional breakdowns, you can check them out on the podcast. Whatever app you're listening to, you just...

You've got one day left before we take them down. No. No, we're keeping them up. Go now. Hurry. So check them out. We're in the AFC South. Last year, the Texans won the division. 11 and 5. The Colts, 10 and 6. The Titans, 9 and 7. So three teams above 500. And the Jags, well, they let you down. 5 and 11. Interesting division. Interesting fantasy storylines for each of these teams.

Last year, the Texans, and that's who we're going to start with the Texans, had the eighth best rushing yards per game. They could run the football. Deshaun Watson helps that quite a bit. Bill O'Brien and Company, what are we expecting from this offense this year? I'm most excited to see three competent, talented pass catchers on the field at the same time for Deshaun Wantson. DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kiki QT, if you told me right here, right now, today.

I'm going to make a statement. It's going to seem outland. Oh, man. Are you going to beat me to it? If those three guys, if you gave me 16 games, Deshaun Watson will be the number one quarterback in fantasy football. I was just going to say the same thing. I was literally going to say if all three guys stay healthy, Watson is one of the guys that can challenge Mahomes and end up as the number one quarterback. He is.

He's a great player. He runs the ball third most rushing attempts and third most rushing yards at the quarterback position. That gives you a monster boost on a weekly basis. And what is, what's wild is how often they let him throw the ball inside the 10. I mean, 42 attempts inside the 10. That's the fifth most in the league.

Like for what you feel like the Houston Texans there and Bill O'Brien, his DNA as a head coach of, I'm going to grind. No, they're letting Deshaun Watson do what he has to do to score. To add to your point, it's working. Yes. He throws a touchdown every 3.8 pass attempts in the red zone. Yes. So not only does he attempt them, they work out.

It's the second highest percentage in the league. Only Baker Mayfield was better in the red zone last year on those attempts. The Houston Texans opened their camp this week. The first article that I read the five takeaways from a great beat reporter there. The number one takeaway was on the goal line work, the red zone inside the five, was how good Deshaun Watson was. He was tearing everyone up.

Just snapping the ball, quick pass every single time a touchdown. Deshaun Watson has the dual threat way more so. Like I know Pat Mahomes can run, but his rushing ability in fantasy, I am very excited. You want to talk about, okay, Hopkins is here. He's great. But the player I'm most excited about is Deshaun Watson. The only problem is, of course, he plays quarterback. He plays quarterback. And in fantasy.

It's just not worth drafting a quarterback early when you need multiple running backs and wide receivers and there's 20 good quarterbacks. But I want Deshaun Watson. I need to play in a two QB league so I could take Watson. So the huddle doesn't have Houston using either of their first and second round tackles that they invested draft capital in as part of that starting offensive line. They probably should. Therefore they, I mean, they're basically dead last in the league as an offensive line and they have a quarterback.

They had his comfortable outside the pocket of moving around. He also took the most Saxon football last year. Exactly. You can't keep doing that. So they invested. They invested two early picks on tackles. And Matt Khalil is back. And he was dominating in camp. That's their left tackle. He was injured and is oft injured. So whether or not he can stay healthy is not dominating too in his past. But it would be anything's better. Anything is better. He is a major upgrade for them. No doubt. No doubt. So.

getting to the receiving core. So we say all that about Watson without a fantasy prescription. He's somebody that, you know, who's being drafted ahead of him at the quarterback position right now? Like what's his ADP? I can pull that up. Is he in the fifth? Yeah, he's in the back of the fifth. Back of the fifth round. So Deshaun Watson. Too hot to take quarterback. In the late sixth, he drops to the late sixth, early seventh round.

With the potential of being a quarterback that can be number one, with healthy wide receivers, do you start to look at that sneaky value? It's not Mahomes in the third, it's Watson in the seventh. If I'm in a late round league where, you know, like we are, our league, everyone prescribes the late round quarterback. So everybody's ADP is pushed. I think that's really common. A lot of the people listening will play in those leagues. If Deshaun Watson was in the seventh round, I'm taking him.

For sure, because he is going behind Andrew Luck, Aaron Rogers, and I've got him right now as my number two quarterback. Okay. So transitioning to the past catchers, we know DeAndre Hopkins is DeAndre Hopkins. There's not much to say about him. He's good. Draft him. He's great. Yeah, I mean, really, we don't need to discuss. He's one of the best three wide receivers, and he will stay that way. Yeah, the thing to discuss is simply.

Does it affect him if the other receivers are healthy? It does. It will definitely take targets away from him. The past two years has been a 30 plus percent target market share guy. But last year, Will Fuller had 45 targets. Kiki had 41. I mean, those numbers would go up if those players are actually back on the field. Last year, we were saying the same thing. Now, we suffered the injuries again, but we were saying the exact same thing about his target share.

He probably deserves that target share. Yeah, and he's going to get it. Hopkins, I mean, the target share might go down because of Kiki, but those aren't the valuable fantasy targets. Those are the short-range stuff. In games that Will Fuller has played, Hopkins has, at least last season, he had more fantasy points in the games that Will Fuller was playing than when Will Fuller was injured. I have no worries whatsoever about Hopkins. I don't think anybody does. No, not being, he'll still be elite. The question just becomes, is he your number one guy?

or number three. Sure. That's... Will Fuller is going at 710 right now. When he's been on the field with Watson, he's been incredible. It hasn't happened very often. Kiki QT, I am shocked by this ADP. Absolutely shocked. The fact that Kiki is going at 907, which seems mind-blowing to me for a PPR guy, to go two rounds ahead of somebody like Anthony Miller in Chicago blows my mind. Like, I don't like that value on Kiki at all. Oh, you...

In the ninth? No. Oh, I'm perfectly fine with it. Because the best case scenario for Kiki, I know he may be the peppered guy, but the touchdown upside isn't there with Kiki. So I guess I'm just a little surprised because he's not been, you know, he played six games in his career. I'm surprised.

That he's there personally. I think it's just because of what you saw in the first five games. Obviously, as a rookie, the first five games before he went back down to injury once he got on the field. He was on 125 target pace for 83 receptions, 874 yards as a rookie. So people are saying if he takes that step forward. But I actually, like if it's a full PPR, he's obviously more interesting. But I do agree with Andy. I think that. How many of those games was Will Fuller a part of? Was it all of them? No, it's just a handful.

So we have fuller variable, and then even if that projection that you just said came true. It's not that right. Are you happy with 80 and 800? No, but you're hoping that that as a rookie was, you know, that second. I would be. PPR, it's a different story. Even, even in a half point PPR. I mean, like around the ninth round, that's where you're just starting to take your shots on guys. And, and I, if Kiki, like, I have them down for just over 20% of the targets. And that's.

That's very valuable of the efficient quarterback that John Watson is. Right now, I mean, Kiki's going around MVS. Give me MBS all day long. Sutton is going behind Kiki, Westbrook, Samuel, Tate. I don't want any of those guys. I don't want him above those guys. Fair. D. Jacks. Here's a good one, Mike. Dante Moncrief or Kiki. Oh. Moncrief is two rounds later than Kiki. Definitely a team.

Team makeup question for me. Yeah. We don't have to talk about Kiki anymore. Sure. Why do we feel so ble when we draft Le Mar Miller? So I took a look at Lamar Miller because it's insane. We all are like, you know, Lamar Miller, he's been so bad. He sucks. He is the worst. He was supposed to be good when he got to Houston and then he sucked. And since joining the Houston Texans, he is.

averaging the fifth most touches at the running back position. Wait, that's really good. Yeah, he has the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL. Wait, that's super. But here's the problem. Here is the problem for Lamar Miller. Five carries inside the five last year. Alfred Blue had four. And just for some context of guys who I do not like, freaking Doug Martin had 11 carries inside the five.

Inside the five is the Sean Watson territory. Main running backs get carries. Like the volume that Lamar Miller sees, he should be at least at double digit. When you break things down, he should be seeing double digit carries inside the five. But they don't. They go to Sean Watson. The cumulative numbers are not helpful for fantasy because the same numbers apply to someone like Jordan Howard who is.

thrown away for a six-round pick. He's like the third most rushing yards over the last three years. They're not that helpful because it just means, guess what? Congratulations. You're a running back who had a starting job and stayed healthy for three straight years.

Yeah, that does mean something. It does mean something. He helped me last year. Miller helped me a ton last year. The reason, and Mike brought it up, it's the touchdowns, right? Because if you look, since he's been a Houston Texan, his 16-game pace, he averages over 1,000 yards rushing every single year. It's just he also averages only five touchdowns. Right. So I think where he's going in drafts right now is great. I mean, look, he's not going to be a top five, top 10 running back.

But he's going to be an RB2 that's helpful to your fantasy team. And he's being drafted very late because he doesn't have the upside. People are swinging their picks on, you know, pushing their chips in on someone who is much more volatile. They don't know what they're going to be yet. So they're excited about the possibility. If you build your roster knowing, look, a guy like a Lamar Miller in the mid, middle, late rounds is a good plug and play RB2 or RB3, great.

much more stable than anybody going around him. Before and after Lamar Miller is got James White, Therick Cohen, Tevin Coleman, Rashad Penny, Darrell Henderson, Darius Geist. The only one that if you made me bet my house on 200 carries, I'm only doing it with Lamar Miller. Now, speaking of the stability, Deontay Foreman, the backup running back will be now a full year removed from his ACL, or apologies, his Achilles tear.

Which it's eventually, I mean, it took him out last year. He was, he was absolutely nothing. The team let Alford Blue go. They, like, the depth chart is really the Mar Miller and Deontay Foreman. Are you taking a late round shot on Foreman at all to see week one, maybe he gets in there and he surprises you with his work line? I would love.