The 2024 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/16

value at where he's going. He's not someone I'm thoroughly excited about. I don't think he's going to be one of those players that just absolutely wins your league for you. So my two main finalists were I was very close to go on Devante Smith. The whole offseason, very, very close. And I would have loved to go with Ladd-McConkie if it wasn't for the off-season. recent health issues of Herbert and Ladd-McConkie that just make it a little too spicy. We should actually finally see him on the field this week, they said. Yes, they are both back. I think Herbert was out of the boot. That's great. I believe in those players still. But it was the opposite that happened. There was a guy I was just so madly, madly in love with. And there was only one worry I had this whole off season was whether or not he was going to be healthy from a week 13 injury.

And we saw in the preces, baby. My guy. Tank Dell. Nathaniel Jasper Tank Dell Jr. That's a mouthful of awesomeness. Look, he's the second year wide receiver for the Houston Texans. He finished last year as the wide receiver 38, but in only 11 games. Yet he had as many top 12 performances as Devante Adams. or Brandon and Iuk had, and they played the entire season. He was going to be a league winner. There was a moment last year where independently Andy and I had not talked. We had not shared with each other our love and our belief that he was going to be a league winner, and we both went out and tried to trade for Tank Dell midseason. Andy actually got him. I was sad. He was happy. Obviously he got injured and was not the guy yet, but he has the chance to be this next year. Now, he was injured in week 13.

I'm going to talk about his injury concerns a bit, but before that time... That sucks so bad. It did. He was cruising. He was so fun to watch. You want to know how he was cruising? Before that injury, he was the wide receiver 10 in points per game. He was between Jamar Chase and DJ Moore as a rookie. But Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs are there. Voice of public opinion. Yeah. Well, when Nico and Tank were both on the field, because Nico had his own injuries, in those games where they both were on the field, Tank had a higher target share.

He had a higher air yard share and a higher fantasy points per game average. So it is not outlandish to think that at the end of this season, Tank Dell could be the number one. Don't hear what I'm not saying. I love Nico. Hear what I am saying. I'm not super into Stefan Diggs. But 72% of Tankdell's receptions went for a first down or a touchdown last year. He was important. He was awesome. And for such a small wide receiver, he was not utilized that way last year. Okay, 60% of his targets were 10 plus. yards down the field. You think of him as like, oh, it's just like a screen manufacturer guy. He had one pass the entire year. It was behind the line of scrimmage. 70% of his snaps were out wide and you watch in three wide receiver sets this preseason. You saw Stefan Diggs coming into the slot. That's where I think he belongs at this stage of his career. And I think he opens the field up even more. I've said it a million times. I tweeted out every target from Take Dell earlier this year.

I don't know in the modern NFL. I don't know how you stop Tankdale. I watch it. I'm just like, you can't, you can't really stop. I actually do know the answer. Tell me. You have him block. You have him block on the goal line. Oh, yeah, deep down in and have Damien Pierce roll up on your own teammate. So is he really going to take the next step? That's the question, right? I think we all like him, but that's a good question. There's only seven rookie wide receivers over the last decade who have averaged 60 receiving yards per game. 15 yards per reception and had seven touchdowns. That list is Mike Evans, Juju Smith-Schuster, who was great early in his career. I know he's a joke now after injury. Terry McLaren, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins. And he did that in 11 games played. The next year for all six of those guys, the next year, all of them increased the receiving yards by a lot. Double-digit receiving yards per game increase.

The C.J. Stroud offense, don't be surprised if he hit 75 yards per game in this offense. And so then the only question is, but that dude's going to get injured again. He's tiny. Labeling someone as injury prone is not logical. And our injury expert and licensed physical therapist, Matthew Betts, cringes. He dies a little bit inside every time someone labels someone as injury prone. But the injury last year in week 13 was a fractured left fibula when they were. bringing him in. I've done that. To block. And Damian Pierce rolled up on his leg. It was a freak accident. Get that man some milk. And you know what? He seems like he recovered well. He looked great in preseason. It was nice to see one big play in preseason to just kind of like if you were getting, you know, if you weren't sure you wanted to make the commitment, that was that was it. That was the great gesture. I literally was like, man, you know, I'm in on Tankdale, but.

I feel like we haven't heard a ton about the injury and the recovery and is he going to, and it was like that day. Then Tank Dell has the huge touchdown. Oh, he's playing and he's good to go. And he looked exactly how he looked. He gets open in space and then makes guys miss. But regarding the injury, the last time Tank Dell got injured was September 1st of 2018 when he was a freshman at Alabama. Between that freshman year and week 13 last year, He played in 59 games in college and NFL. He played 2,472 snaps without an injury. Okay? I was personally not worried about an injury. Well, I think if he's not injured, he's going to have a lot of big games. What's that? Alabama A&M. Yes. Okay. Thank you. Yeah. He was not. I was like, wait, what? Yeah. He played at Bama? Yeah. And if you want to go back to high school.

I'm kidding. Oh, goodness. Put a ball on it. But yes, the point is this was an exceptionally talented rookie. He is being drafted later than I think he should be. He's going after Zay Flowers. Apparently we all need to be drafted on ESPN. That's where a lot of these guys are huge values. He's going between Evan Ingraham and Kyle Pitts, tight ends and those middle rounds that usually don't pan out. Or you could take Tank Dell, a second year wide receiver. who was boss as a rookie going with a great offense. Great quarterback. Great quarterback in steps forward. And I didn't even bring up the love. The love that C.J. Stroud has for Tankdale. That man is in love with Tankdale. All right. Thanks, Jason. Mike, wrap it up. So I will throw out the one finalist. Yeah, thank you. The one finalist that I had, it was Nico Collins.

But my love for Nico Collins is already well known. It's well known throughout the land. So I wanted to make sure that people know that I really like this player. Tank Bigsby. Tank Biggsby, who is actually my guy? Now play the real one. James Cook. Oh, that came through because I was lamenting, Jason. As you were talking, I was messaging the guys. I'm like, We should have take Biggsby. Jason, it would have got it. It would have got you so good. Once you said that, I was like, we just got to do it. Unfortunately for you, I was prepared for that to happen. Yeah. James Cook running back of the Buffalo Bills going right now as the running back 14 on the sleeper platform. And here's the thing. In today's NFL, the way that running backs are used. Yes, volume is still the king of fantasy football at the running back position. But there's about.

three guys that you know, well, this is a three-down guy. Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bejohn Robinson. Those are the only three guys we feel confident going into the season that it's just they're going to be heavy on the workload. Which is like three of the top five picks. Which is why those guys are easily in the first round. After that, you want guys who have opportunities, but who are also efficient. Last year, James Cook was an efficiency monster. Number one in yards before contact among all running backs. Over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Third most in the NFL. Behind Christian McCaffrey and Brees Hall. He finished as the running back 12 despite only two rushing touchdowns. We saw a huge shift last year for the Buffalo Bills between the first half and the second half. They started with Ken Dorsey from weeks 1 through 10. They were 5 and 5. They moved to Joe Brady over the second half of the season.

And they go six and one. And a huge part of that change was their past percentage. Ken Dorsey, they were letting it rip. Joe Brady, their passing percent dropped down to 31st. Now, I don't expect that to stick down at 31st. But the point being, Joe Brady is a guy who likes to run the ball. This is high-tee stuff. And James Cook is absolutely their guy. In those splits over the first half, James Cook was. like a 15 opportunities per game type of guy putting up over just 10 fantasy points per game. That jumps to nearly 17 points a game and 20 opportunities per game and not just on the ground. The targets per route run went from 14% up to 26%. And speaking of that 26% for more context, that's elite. That's Bijon Robinson levels of targets per route run. The bills have vacated

284 targets because they sent their number one guy Stefan Diggs and some other pieces. And the number two guy, Gabe Davis. They're no longer on the team. And while we want Keon Coleman, the exciting first round, or first round rookie wide receiver, we want the Khalil Shakir, the hope for the later round guy. We want them to step in. We have seen over history that, yeah, that happens a little bit. But the running back position. They're the ones who often see a bump. And that's a lot of targets to filter out that James Cook can absolutely be involved in. Inside the 10, that's the big concern. Like I said, running back 12, despite only two rushing touchdowns. He still had 18 carries inside the 10. That sounds like just it's a little bit of bad luck for a guy who was so efficient, leading the lead in yards before contact. You got offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

talking about the short yardage. And this is the big one. I feel confident with Jimbo, which is James Cook's nickname, all the way down to its third and one. They're fine. They're fine with him being the short yardage running back. I think that the rushing touchdowns, it's an anomaly. If those come up and he continues his efficiency, he is the player who I think can really surprise despite being in that typical dead zone for running backs. I think that the bills have made it very clear that they are ready to give James Cook the work and make him their bejean, CMC, Breece back. And I don't think that the fantasy community is ready to accept that as a possibility. And I think that's the disparity in draft. Right. Because he's undersized. Correct. And look, some guys are just, they're undersized. But he was a second round pick. His rookie year was, was bad.

for fantasy football. So I think that the shine of him being a second round pick wore off too quick. If you call 5.7 a carry as a rookie bat. I mean, I just mean, it's cumulative. I mean, fantasy football, it didn't work out. Great player. That was known. We just needed those opportunities to go up. I was looking for that drop earlier. I really was. That's funny. So, so his ADP to me is. Where's it at again? He is going at the 407 RB 14. Yeah, it's a great option. I absolutely love this fully endorse. He was actually on my short list as well for a while. It was. I didn't want to bring him up before you brought up the my guy. But this is a guy who was the running back 11 last year with two rushing touchdowns. Yeah. You're like, oh, he's not going to get touchdowns. So what? What if he gets six? What if he gets six rushing touchdowns? I did stumble on something very funny. And that was like a show doc from four or five years ago.

with a lot of Joe Brady hype and excitement when he was the offensive coordinator in Carolina. So hopefully it works out better in Buffalo. But this team has a lot of question marks on how the offense is going to function. Their defense is going to struggle a little bit, I think. And, you know, James Cook has three down workload potential. He has a potential. And it's, he is good. I think a key for my three, my guys here. These are not just opportunity guys. extremely talented players that just need a little bit more luck in a certain area. So there you have it. All of our My Guys, if you want to share your own My Guys with us over on X. Use the hashtag My Guy and let us know who you like and who your favorite maybe was of today's picks. Next week we're going to have a breakouts and sleepers and busts and values episode.

And we'll be live on Saturday in Los Angeles. The live show at Palace Theater, ballerslive.com for tickets. It is recording. The event is Saturday night. And then we'd love to see you there. We've got a live Q&A and a big celebration and some surprises for you. Presented by our friends at Sleeper and Pristie Knox. A part of those surprises is it's signed gear, including a grand prize that you've got to be there to win it. Yes, we will be. throwing way too much signed gear into the crowd. And so please come and join us, ballerslive.com, grab a ticket. And then the UDK for Life live stream is this afternoon at 6 p.m. Eastern, 3 p.m. Pacific. Get your UDK now. It's not too late. UltimateendriveKit.com for that. So hopefully you enjoyed the show. That is going to do it for today's episode. But there's more coming. And football is, it's inching closer. Cannot wait. Goodbye.

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